• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction risk

검색결과 1,085건 처리시간 0.026초

젖소에서 유성분 분석을 통한 우군 건강관리프로그램의 개발 (Development of program for herd health management by milk components analysis of dairy cows)

  • 문진산;손창호;이보균;주이석;강현미;김종만;김병태;문현식
    • 대한수의학회지
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    • 제42권4호
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    • pp.485-493
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to develope a computer program to help with gross diagnosis of protein-energy balance and feeding management practice and with the prediction about the risk possibility of productive disease such as reproductive and metabolic disorders by evaluating fat, protein, and milk urea nitrogen (MUN) from individual cow milk in dairy herd Somatic cell counts also represent the condition of udder health. The principal flow charts of this program was to check on herd management, sampling the composite milk, analysis the milk composition, conversion of data from milking equipment to program, input and analysis of data in program, and report. This program is compatible with window 95/98 system. The major analytical elements of this program were presented as; the profile of herd lactation curve analysis of the test-day milk production level, the distribution of somatic cell count, the fat to protein ratio to evaluate body energy balance, and the interpretation of dietary protein-energy balance by milk protein and MUN contents for individual cows. This program using milk fat, protein, MUN, and somatic cell counts will serve as a monitoring tool for the protein-energy balance and the feeding management practice, and for distribution of mastitis in individual cows. It will also be used to manage the nutritional and reproductive disorders and mastitis at the farm level.

Ecotoxicity Estimation of Hazardous Air Pollutants Emitted from Semiconductor Manufacturing Processes Utilizing QSAR

  • Park, Hyung-Geun;Yeo, Min-Kyeong
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제34권12호
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    • pp.3755-3761
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to assess the ecological risk of the hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea by using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR, EPA, US, EPI $Suite^{TM}$ 4.1). Owing to the absence of environmental standards of hazardous air pollutants in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea, 18 HAPs in the semiconductor field included in both the US EPA NESHAPs and the hazardous air pollutant list of Ministry of Environment in Korea were selected. As a results 8 chemicals (44.4%) of the selected 18 HAPs were VOCs. Cyanides (cyanides) and ethylene oxides (epoxy resins), and tetrachloro-ethylene (aliphatic compounds, halides) showed long half-lives. Cyanide HAPs especially had the highest half-life with the estimated value of 356.533 days. Nickel compounds (heavy metal compounds) possessed the highest water solubility followed by acetaldehyde (aldehyde compounds), ethylene oxides, and 1,4-dioxanes. The halides, including tetrachloro-ethylenes, carbon tetra-chlorides, benzene (aromatic compounds), and lead (heavy metals), are estimated to take the longest time for biodegradation. Tetrachloroethylene, with the acute toxicity end point of 3.685-7.033 mg/L, was assessed to be the most highly toxic substance among the 18 HAPs. However, considering the absence of the HAPs in the common category of log $K_{ow}{\geq}4$and $BCF{\geq}500$, which indicates the standard of bioconcentration potentials, potentials of the bioconcentration are considered to be low.

AR 모델을 이용한 산사면에서의 지하수위 예측 (Prediction of Groundwater Levels in Hillside Slopes Using the Autoregressive Model)

  • 이인모;박경호;임충모
    • 한국지반공학회지:지반
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 1993
  • 우리나라는 많은 산막지역으로이루어져 있으며 우기에 많은산사태의 발생으로 인하여 인명과 재산의 손실을 입고 있다. 따라서, 산사태의 발생에 대한 예측 시스템과 위험도 분석 연구가 필요하며, 본 연구의 목적은 관측된 지하수위의 분석을 통하여 산사태 발생을 예측하는 가능성에 대한 것이다. 이를 위하여 AR 모델을 사용하여 모델계수를 일정하게 하는 경우와 변화시키는 경우로 나누어 분석하였다. AR모델계수를 일정하게 하는 경우에는 AR(1), AR(2), AR(3) 모델을 선택하여 각 각의 모델계수를 구하였고, AR모델계수를 변화시키는 경우에는 변형된 AR(1)과 전형적인 AR (2) 모델을 과정 모델로 이용하여 Kalman Filtering 기법에 의하여 모델계수를 구하였다. 그 결과, 모델계수를 변화시키는 실시간 예측 방법이나 AR모델계수가 일정한 경우 모두 산사면 에서의 지하수위를 잘 예측해주며, 지하수위 뿐만아니라 시간별 강우강도를 고려함으로써 더욱 정 확한 예측을 할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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Usefulness of Endoscopic Imaging to Visualize Regional Alterations in Acid Secretion of Noncancerous Gastric Mucosa after Helicobacter pylori Eradication

  • Uno, Kaname;Iijima, Katsunori;Abe, Yasuhiko;Koike, Tomoyuki;Takahashi, Yasushi;Ara, Nobuyuki;Shimosegawa, Tooru
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.152-160
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: Endoscopic diagnosis of gastric cancer (GC) that emerges after eradication of Helicobacter pylori may be affected by unique morphological changes. Using comprehensive endoscopic imaging, which can reveal biological alterations in gastric mucosa after eradication, previous studies demonstrated that Congo red chromoendoscopy (CRE) might clearly show an acid non-secretory area (ANA) with malignant potential, while autofluorescence imaging (AFI) without drug injection or dyeing may achieve early detection or prediction of GC. We aimed to determine whether AFI might be an alternative to CRE for identification of high-risk areas of gastric carcinogenesis after eradication. Materials and Methods: We included 27 sequential patients with metachronous GC detected during endoscopic surveillance for a mean of 82.8 months after curative endoscopic resection for primary GC and eradication. After their H. pylori infection status was evaluated by clinical interviews and $^{13}C$-urea breath tests, the consistency in the extension of corpus atrophy (e.g., open-type or closed-type atrophy) between AFI and CRE was investigated as a primary endpoint. Results: Inconsistencies in atrophic extension between AFI and CRE were observed in 6 of 27 patients, although CRE revealed all GC cases in the ANA. Interobserver and intraobserver agreements in the evaluation of atrophic extension by AFI were significantly less than those for CRE. Conclusions: We demonstrated that AFI findings might be less reliable for the evaluation of gastric mucosa with malignant potential after eradication than CRE findings. Therefore, special attention should be paid when we clinically evaluate AFI findings of background gastric mucosa after eradication (University Hospital Medical Information Network Center registration number: UMIN000020849).

Epilepsy in children with a history of febrile seizures

  • Lee, Sang Hyun;Byeon, Jung Hye;Kim, Gun Ha;Eun, Baik-Lin;Eun, So-Hee
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • 제59권2호
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    • pp.74-79
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: Febrile seizure, the most common type of pediatric convulsive disorder, is a benign seizure syndrome distinct from epilepsy. However, as epilepsy is also common during childhood, we aimed to identify the prognostic factors that can predict epilepsy in children with febrile seizures. Methods: The study comprised 249 children at the Korea University Ansan Hospital who presented with febrile seizures. The relationship between the subsequent occurrence of epilepsy and clinical factors including seizure and fever-related variables were analyzed by multivariate analysis. Results: Twenty-five patients (10.0%) had additional afebrile seizures later and were diagnosed with epilepsy. The subsequent occurrence of epilepsy in patients with a history of febrile seizures was associated with a seizure frequency of more than 10 times during the first 2 years after seizure onset (P<0.001). Factors that were associated with subsequent occurrence of epilepsy were developmental delay (P<0.001), preterm birth (P =0.001), multiple seizures during a febrile seizure attack (P =0.005), and epileptiform discharges on electroencephalography (EEG) (P =0.008). Other factors such as the age at onset of first seizure, seizure duration, and family history of epilepsy were not associated with subsequent occurrence of epilepsy in this study. Conclusion: Febrile seizures are common and mostly benign. However, careful observation is needed, particularly for prediction of subsequent epileptic episodes in patients with frequent febrile seizures with known risk factors, such as developmental delay, history of preterm birth, several attacks during a febrile episode, and epileptiform discharges on EEG.

Validation of Serum Aminotransferases Levels to Define Severe Dengue Fever in Children

  • Srivastava, Geetika;Chhavi, Nanda;Goel, Amit
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: We aimed to study the pattern of liver-injury in children with dengue fever (DF) and validate serum aminotransferase ${\geq}1,000IU/L$ as a marker of severe DF. Methods: Children admitted with DF were included. DF was defined by presence of clinical criteria and positive serological or antigen tests in absence of other etiology. DF severity was graded as dengue without or with warning signs and severe dengue. Liver-injury was defined as alanine aminotransferase (ALT) more than twice the upper limit of normal (boys, 30 IU/L; girls, 21 IU/L). Results: Of 372 children with DF, 144 (38.7%) had liver-injury. Risk of liver-injury and aminotransferase levels increased with DF severity (p<0.001). Recommended ALT and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) cut-off at ${\geq}1,000IU/L$ had sensitivity 4.8% (5/105), specificity 99.3% (265/267) for detection of severe DF. In children with ALT and AST <1,000 IU/L (n=365), the area under receiver operating curves for prediction for severe DF, were 0.651 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.588-0.714; p<0.001) for ALT and 0.647 (95% CI, 0.582-0.712; p<0.001) for AST. Serum ALT at 376 IU/L and AST at 635 IU/L had sensitivity and specificity comparable to ${\geq}1,000IU/L$ for defining severe DF. Conclusion: Liver-injury is common in DF. The ALT and AST levels increase with DF severity. ALT and AST levels of ${\geq}1,000IU/L$ could be lowered to 376 IU/L and 635 IU/L respectively for defining severe DF.

BRCA1 Gene Mutation Screening for the Hereditary Breast and/or Ovarian Cancer Syndrome in Breast Cancer Cases: a First High Resolution DNA Melting Analysis in Indonesia

  • Mundhofir, Farmaditya EP;Wulandari, Catharina Endah;Prajoko, Yan Wisnu;Winarni, Tri Indah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.1539-1546
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    • 2016
  • Specific patterns of the hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome are related to mutations in the BRCA1 gene. One hundred unrelated breast cancer patients were interviewed to obtain clinical symptoms and signs, pedigree and familial history of HBOC syndrome related cancer. Subsequently, data were calculated using the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) risk prediction model. Patients with high score of BOADICEA were offered genetic testing. Eleven patients with high score of BOADICEA, 2 patients with low score of BOADICEA, 2 patient's family members and 15 controls underwent BRCA1 genetic testing. Mutation screening using PCR-HRM was carried out in 22 exons (41 amplicons) of BRCA1 gene. Sanger sequencing was subjected in all samples with aberrant graph. This study identified 10 variants in the BRCA1 gene, consisting of 6 missense mutations (c.1480C>A, c.2612C>T, c.2566T>C, c.3113A>G, c.3548 A>G, c.4837 A>G), 3 synonymous mutations (c.2082 C>T, c.2311 T>C and c.4308T>C) and one intronic mutation (c.134+35 G>T). All variants tend to be polymorphisms and unclassified variants. However, no known pathogenic mutations were found.

Colorectal Cancer Mortality Characteristics and Predictions in China, 1991-2011

  • Fang, Jia-Ying;Dong, Hong-Li;Sang, Xue-Jin;Xie, Bin;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Du, Pei-Ling;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Jia, Xiao-Yue;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권17호
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    • pp.7991-7995
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    • 2015
  • Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

Evaluation of the Radiation Pneumonia Development Risk in Lung Cancer Cases

  • Yilmaz, Sercan;Adas, Yasemin Guzle;Hicsonmez, Ayse;Andrieu, Meltem Nalca;Akyurek, Serap;Gokce, Saban Cakir
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권17호
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    • pp.7371-7375
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    • 2014
  • Background: Concurrent chemo-radiotherapy is the recommended standard treatment modality for patients with locally advanced lung cancer. The purpose of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) is to minimize normal tissue damage while a high dose can be delivered to the tumor. The most common dose limiting side effect of thoracic RT is radiation pneumonia (RP). In this study we evaluated the relationship between dose-volume histogram parameters and radiation pneumonitis. This study targeted prediction of the possible development of RP and evaluation of the relationship between dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters and RP in patients undergoing 3DCRT. Materials and Methods: DVHs of 41 lung cancer patients treated with 3DCRT were evaluated with respect to the development of grade ${\geq}2$ RP by excluding gross tumor volume (GTV) and planned target volume (PTV) from total (TL) and ipsilateral (IPSI) lung volume. Results: Were admitted statistically significant for p<0.05. Conclusions: The cut-off values for V5, V13, V20, V30, V45 and the mean dose of TL-GTV; and V13, V20,V30 and the mean dose of TL-PTV were statistically significant for the development of Grade ${\geq}2$ RP. No statistically significant results related to the development of Grade ${\geq}2$ RP were observed for the ipsilateral lung and the evaluation of PTV volume. A controlled and careful evaluation of the dose-volume histograms is important to assess Grade ${\geq}2$ RP development of the lung cancer patients treated with concurrent chemo-radiotherapy. In the light of the obtained data it can be said that RP development may be avoided by the proper analysis of the dose volume histograms and the application of optimal treatment plans.

Probabilistic analysis of tunnel collapse: Bayesian method for detecting change points

  • Zhou, Binghua;Xue, Yiguo;Li, Shucai;Qiu, Daohong;Tao, Yufan;Zhang, Kai;Zhang, Xueliang;Xia, Teng
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.291-303
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    • 2020
  • The deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel manifests due to the stress redistribution within the surrounding rock. By observing the deformation of the surrounding rock, we can not only determine the stability of the surrounding rock and supporting structure but also predict the future state of the surrounding rock. In this paper, we used grey system theory to analyse the factors that affect the deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel. The results show that the 5 main influencing factors are longitudinal wave velocity, tunnel burial depth, groundwater development, surrounding rock support type and construction management level. Furthermore, we used seismic prospecting data, preliminary survey data and excavated section monitoring data to establish a neural network learning model to predict the total amount of deformation of the surrounding rock during tunnel collapse. Subsequently, the probability of a change in deformation in each predicted section was obtained by using a Bayesian method for detecting change points. Finally, through an analysis of the distribution of the change probability and a comparison with the actual situation, we deduced the survey mark at which collapse would most likely occur. Surface collapse suddenly occurred when the tunnel was excavated to this predicted distance. This work further proved that the Bayesian method can accurately detect change points for risk evaluation, enhancing the accuracy of tunnel collapse forecasting. This research provides a reference and a guide for future research on the probability analysis of tunnel collapse.