• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction quality

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A Comparison of Accuracy of the Ocean Thermal Environments Using the Daily Analysis Data of the KMA NEMO/NEMOVAR and the US Navy HYCOM/NCODA (기상청 전지구 해양순환예측시스템(NEMO/NEMOVAR)과 미해군 해양자료 동화시스템(HYCOM/NCODA)의 해양 일분석장 열적환경 정확도 비교)

  • Ko, Eun Byeol;Moon, Il-Ju;Jeong, Yeong Yun;Chang, Pil-Hun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the accuracy of ocean analysis data, which are produced from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean/Variational Data Assimilation (NEMO/NEMOVAR, hereafter NEMO) system and the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model/Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM/NCODA, hereafter HYCOM) system, was evaluated using various oceanic observation data from March 2015 to February 2016. The evaluation was made for oceanic thermal environments in the tropical Pacific, the western North Pacific, and the Korean peninsula. NEMO generally outperformed HYCOM in the three regions. Particularly, in the tropical Pacific, the RMSEs (Root Mean Square Errors) of NEMO for both the sea surface temperature and vertical water temperature profile were about 50% smaller than those of HYCOM. In the western North Pacific, in which the observational data were not used for data assimilation, the RMSE of NEMO profiles up to 1000 m ($0.49^{\circ}C$) was much lower than that of HYCOM ($0.73^{\circ}C$). Around the Korean peninsula, the difference in RMSE between the two models was small (NEMO, $0.61^{\circ}C$; HYCOM, $0.72^{\circ}C$), in which their errors show relatively big in the winter and small in the summer. The differences reported here in the accuracy between NEMO and HYCOM for the thermal environments may be attributed to horizontal and vertical resolutions of the models, vertical coordinate and mixing scheme, data quality control system, data used for data assimilation, and atmosphere forcing. The present results can be used as a basic data to evaluate the accuracy of NEMO, before it becomes the operational model of the KMA providing real-time ocean analysis and prediction data.

An Object-Based Verification Method for Microscale Weather Analysis Module: Application to a Wind Speed Forecasting Model for the Korean Peninsula (미기상해석모듈 출력물의 정확성에 대한 객체기반 검증법: 한반도 풍속예측모형의 정확성 검증에의 응용)

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kwak, Hwa-Ryun;Kim, Sang-il;Choi, Young-Jean
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1275-1288
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    • 2015
  • A microscale weather analysis module (about 1km or less) is a microscale numerical weather prediction model designed for operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs such as radiant energy, thermal energy, and humidity. The accuracy of the module is directly related to the usefulness and quality of real-time microscale weather information service in the metropolitan area. This paper suggests an object based verification method useful for spatio-temporal evaluation of the accuracy of the microscale weather analysis module. The method is a graphical method comprised of three steps that constructs a lattice field of evaluation statistics, merges and identifies objects, and evaluates the accuracy of the module. We develop lattice fields using various evaluation spatio-temporal statistics as well as an efficient object identification algorithm that conducts convolution, masking, and merging operations to the lattice fields. A real data application demonstrates the utility of the verification method.

A Study on Properites of PV Solar cell AZO thin films post-annealing by RTP technique (RTP 공정을 통한 태양전지용 AZO 박막의 후열처리 특성연구)

  • Yang, Hyeon-Hun;Kim, Han-Wool;Han, Chang-Jun;So, Soon-Youl;Park, Gye-Choon;Lee, Jin;Chung, Hea-Deok;Lee, Suk-Ho;Back, Su-Ung;Na, Kil-Ju;Jeong, Woon-Jo
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.127.1-127.1
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, ZnO:Al thin films with c-axis preferred orientation were prepared on Soda lime glass substrates by RF magnetron sputtering technique. AZO thin film were prepared in order to clarify optimum conditions for growth of the thin film depending upon process, and then by changing a number of deposition conditions and substrate temperature conditions variously, structural and electrical characteristics were measured. For the manufacture of the AZO were vapor-deposited in the named order. It is well-known that post-annealing is an important method to improve crystal quality. For the annealing process, the dislocation nd other defects arise in the material and adsorption/decomposition occurs. The XRD patterns of the AZO films deposited with grey theory prediction design, annealed in a vacuum ambient($2.0{\times}10-3$Torr)at temperatures of 200, 300, 400 and $500^{\circ}C$ for a period of 30min. The diffraction patterns of all the films show the AZO films had a hexagonal wurtzite structure with a preferential orientation along the c-axis perpendicular to the substrate surface. As can be seen, the (002)peak intensities of the AZO films became more intense and sharper when the annealing temperature increased. On the other hand, When the annealing temperature was $500^{\circ}C$ the peak intensity decreased. The surface morphologies and surface toughness of films were examined by atomic force microscopy(AFM, XE-100, PSIA). Electrical resistivity, Gall mobility and carrier concentration were measured by Hall effect measuring system (HL5500PC, Accent optical Technology, USA). The optical absorption spectra of films in the ultraviolet-visibleinfrared( UV-Vis-IR) region were recorder by the UV spectrophotometer(U-3501, Hitachi, Japan). The resistivity, carrier concentration, and Hall mobility of ZnS deposited on glass substrate as a function of post-annealing.

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Integrating UAV Remote Sensing with GIS for Predicting Rice Grain Protein

  • Sarkar, Tapash Kumar;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Kang, Ye-Seong;Kim, Seong-Heon;Jeon, Sae-Rom;Jang, Si-Hyeong;Park, Jun-Woo;Kim, Suk-Gu;Kim, Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.148-159
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Unmanned air vehicle (UAV) remote sensing was applied to test various vegetation indices and make prediction models of protein content of rice for monitoring grain quality and proper management practice. Methods: Image acquisition was carried out by using NIR (Green, Red, NIR), RGB and RE (Blue, Green, Red-edge) camera mounted on UAV. Sampling was done synchronously at the geo-referenced points and GPS locations were recorded. Paddy samples were air-dried to 15% moisture content, and then dehulled and milled to 92% milling yield and measured the protein content by near-infrared spectroscopy. Results: Artificial neural network showed the better performance with $R^2$ (coefficient of determination) of 0.740, NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) of 0.733 and RMSE (root mean square error) of 0.187% considering all 54 samples than the models developed by PR (polynomial regression), SLR (simple linear regression), and PLSR (partial least square regression). PLSR calibration models showed almost similar result with PR as 0.663 ($R^2$) and 0.169% (RMSE) for cloud-free samples and 0.491 ($R^2$) and 0.217% (RMSE) for cloud-shadowed samples. However, the validation models performed poorly. This study revealed that there is a highly significant correlation between NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and protein content in rice. For the cloud-free samples, the SLR models showed $R^2=0.553$ and RMSE = 0.210%, and for cloud-shadowed samples showed 0.479 as $R^2$ and 0.225% as RMSE respectively. Conclusion: There is a significant correlation between spectral bands and grain protein content. Artificial neural networks have the strong advantages to fit the nonlinear problem when a sigmoid activation function is used in the hidden layer. Quantitatively, the neural network model obtained a higher precision result with a mean absolute relative error (MARE) of 2.18% and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.187%.

Information Needs and Satisfaction among Family Members of Terminal Cancer Patients through Phone Cancer Information Services (말기 암 환자 가족의 전화상담을 통한 정보요구와 만족도 조사)

  • Kwon, Kyeung-Eun;Kim, Boon-Han;Chang, Yoon-Jung;Kim, Hee-Jung;Jung, Yun
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: This exploratory study was undertaken to analyze the information needs of family members of terminal cancer patients, collected through the telephone counselling service by National Cancer Information Center. Methods: The study included 113 family members of terminal cancer patients who had enrolled at the National Cancer Information Center for the period from June, 2007 through March, 2008 and had agreed to the survey. Results: The subjects (n=113) consisted of grown-up children (n=82) and spouses (n=8) of patients'. Those in their 40's (n=40) and 30's (n=36) accounted for the majority of the sample. The questions raised most were about the information on treatment methods (n=117), management of terminal cancer patients (n=46), terminal cancer patients' life (n=27), deathbed and prediction of remaining life (n=18), hospitalization (n=16), and financial support (n=15). Most of the subjects were satisfied with the telephone counseling services, and 69% of the subjects had come to know about the telephone counseling service via Internet, and 10.6% of them stated that the PR for the service was poor. Conclusion: It is deemed essential for the government to use the mass media for PR of the hospice services, since family members of terminal cancer patients' are less aware of the hospice conducive to enhancement of patients' remaining quality of life, being involued too deeply in their treatment.

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Application of Back Analysis for Tunnel Design by Modified In Situ Rock Model (현장암반 모델을 적용한 터널의 역해석)

  • Kim, Hak-Mun;Lee, Bong-Yeol;Hwang, Ui-Seok;Kim, Tae-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this research work is to propose an analytical method of tunnel design based on reasonable site data. Therefore the proposed design method consists of monitoring data and Modified In Situ Rock Model. Also the Rock Mass Rating for very poor quality rock is very difficult to estimate, the balances between the ratings may no longer gives a reliable basis for the rock mass strength. But in reality Rock Mass Rating is only the property which can be obtained from face mapping records of the exposed tunnel face during construction stage. Evaluation of rock parameters for the actual design prior to tunnel construction should be corrected during tunnelling process in particularly complex ground conditions. This study intends to investigate application of in-situ rock model to soft rock tunnelling (weathered rock) by face mapping results and site measurement data that are obtained at the costraction site of Seoul Subway Tunnel. For the preparation of more reliable ground parameters, the Rock Mass Rating values for the weathered rocks were modified and readjusted in accordance with the measurement data. The modified input parameters obtained by the proposed method are used for the prediction of the tunnel behavior at subsequent construction stages. The results of this study revealed that more reasonable feed back tunnel analysis can be possible as suggested. Ample measurement data would be able to confirm the new proposed technique in this research work.

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Uniformity Evaluation of Elderly Hospital Outpatients' Waiting Space using Discrete Event Simulation (이산사건 시뮬레이션을 이용한 요양병원 외래부 대기공간 균일성 평가)

  • Yoon, So-Hee;Kim, Suk-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.490-499
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, the introduction of complex systems analysis based on various variables has become more active in order to identify and analyze complex problems of Modern Society. Prediction of patients' spatial perception and usability according to the spatial arrangement of the outpatient department is a very important factor for providing high quality hospital service. For objective analysis, the standard program procedure and analysis index for the diseases of the elderly were prepared and the uniformity of the atmospheric space was evaluated through heat map analysis and quantitative analysis. In this study, 73 cells were installed and simulated to analyze the uniformity of the four alternatives according to the change of the arrangement of the medical care space, receiving space, and consultation space using the complex system analysis method for the nursing hospitals. The resulting density was derived. The results are as follows. 1)The layout of the reception space has the greatest influence on the total spatial density of the waiting space. 2) The uniformity of the waiting space can be increased by separating the examination space and the examination space. 3)The closer the location of the receiving space is from the entrance, the greater the density of the waiting space. Finally, this study applied discrete event simulation to the evaluation of uniformity of atmosphere space, and proved that the actor - based model can be utilized for utilization and evaluation as spatial analysis methodology.

Performance Analysis of Directors, Producers, Main Actors in Korean Movie Industry using Deciles Distribution (2004-2017) (평균 관객 수 10분위를 활용한 감독, 제작자, 배우 흥행성과 분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Ho;Kim, Jae Sung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.78-98
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    • 2018
  • On the 855 pure Korean commercial fictional movies, excluding diversity films, released in Korea from 2004 to August 2017, I conducted deciles distribution analysis of box office performance of those movies and average box office performance of directors, producers and lead actors who involved in making them. Deciles distribution analysis of average box office performance might be helpful to predict their next box office performance of newly produced Korean movies and to evaluate their contribution to box office performance. In baseball, the various index such as winning rate, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, stolen base percentage, battling average, earned run average is used for predicting and reviewing of professional players. In this study, I evaluate the script's narrative quality by the indirect method of insight and judgment of creative manpower involved in making the movies. For the more productive prediction, direct statistical analysis method on the narrative of the script needs to develop. Time series analysis is required to evaluate the rise and fall of creative manpower and network analysis is also necessary to see the interaction among creative people.

The Relationship among Burnout, Compassion Fatigue, Compassion Satisfaction and Social Support of Clinical Dental Hygienists (임상치과위생사의 소진과 공감피로, 공감만족 및 사회적 지지와의 관계)

  • Han, Yang-Keum;Kim, Han-Hong
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.256-263
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship among burnout, compassion fatigue, compassion satisfaction and social support of clinical dental hygienists. The subjects in the study were 313 dental hygienist who were randomly selected in dental clinic and hospital, which were located in Daejeon, South and North Chungcheong province. Data were gathered using structured questionnaires from June 17 to July 31, 2013. The major findings of the study were as follows: 1. As for burnout by general characteristics, there were statistically significant difference according to age, marital status, clinical career, agency work type and job position. 2. The relationship of burnout and other variables was analyzed, and compassion fatigue had a significant positive effect on burnout, and compassion satisfaction and social support had negative effects on burnout. 3. As a result of analyzing which variables affected burnout, it's found that burnout were under the influence of agency work type, compassion fatigue, compassion satisfaction and social support. These variables made a 56.9% prediction of burnout. These findings provide strong empirical evidence for the importance of compassion fatigue, compassion satisfaction and social support in explaining burnout of clinical dental hygienists. Therefore, the effective human resource management programs should be developed to consideration with the dental hygienist work environment and the quality of service.

Development and Uncertainty Assessment of Interface Friction Prediction Equation Between Steel Surface and Cohesionless Soils (강재면과 사질토 사이의 경계면 마찰각 예측식 개발 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Kicheol;Kim, So-Yeun;Kim, Dongwook
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2018
  • Characteristics of interface friction between cohesionless soils and geotechnical structure surfaces play an important role in the analysis of earth load and resistance on the structure. In general, geotechnical structures are mainly composed of either steel or concrete, and their surface roughnesses with respect to soil particle sizes influence the interface characteristics between soils and the structures. Accurate assessment of the interface friction characteristics between soils and structures is important to ensure the safety of geotechnical structures, such as mechanically stabilized earth walls reinforced with inextensible reinforcements, piles embedded into soils, retaining wall backfilled with soils. In this study, based on the database of high quality interface friction tests between frictional soils and solid surfaces from literature, equation representing peak interface friction angle is proposed. The influential factors of the peak interface friction angle are relative roughness between soil and solid surface, relative density of frictional soil, and residual (constant volume) interface friction angle. Futhermore, for the developed equation of the interface friction angle, its uncertainty was assessed statistically based on Goodness-of-fit test results.