• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction of solar power generation

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주변 구조물의 일조방해로 발생한 음영에 의한 태양광 발전 시스템 발전량 예측 및 분쟁 조정(안)에 대한 연구 (A Study on Prediction and Adjustment of Disputes Amount of Power Generated by the PV System by the Peripheral Structure Shadow)

  • 오민석;김기철
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제39권2호
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2019
  • The first case of the Central Environmental Dispute Mediation Committee, which recently decided to repay the builder for damaging the solar power plant due to the obstruction of the sunshine of new buildings, came out. Even if the Respondent complies with the provisions of the Building Act, the decision of the Complainant can be considered to have been made in light of the fact that the applicant's power plant has suffered from sunlight damage. However, since the extent of the damage may differ depending on the weather, the decision is reserved, and there is room for additional disputes on a regular basis because the loss of power generation to be continuously generated is not reflected in the future. Therefore, in this study, we try to find the direction of dispute adjustment by summarizing the issues related to the generation of power generation due to the influence of shading through the analysis of the case of dispute related to sunlight related to the PV system.

위도와 해발높이에 따른 태양광발전 효율 분석 연구 (A Study on Solar Power Generation Efficiency Analysis according to Latitude and Altitude)

  • 차왕철;박정호;조욱래;김재철
    • 조명전기설비학회논문지
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    • 제28권10호
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2014
  • To solve the problem of conventional fossil energy, utilization of renewable energy is growing rapidly. Solar energy as an energy source is infinite, and a variety of research is being conducted into its utilization. To change solar energy into electrical energy, we need to build a solar power plant. The efficiency of such a plant is strongly influenced by meteorological factors; that is, its efficiency is determined by solar radiation. However, when analyzing observed generation data, it is clear that the generated amount is changed by various factors such as weather, location and plant efficiency. In this paper, we proposed a solar power generation prediction algorithm using geographical factors such as latitude and elevation. Hence, changes in generated amount caused by the installation environment are calculated by curve fitting. Through applying the method to calculate this generation amount, the difference between real generated amount is analyzed.

태양광 발전시스템 효율향상을 위한 스마트 모니터링 시스템 (Smart Monitoring System to Improve Solar Power System Efficiency)

  • 윤용호
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.219-224
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    • 2019
  • 국내 소규모(50kW 이하)를 포함한 태양광발전 설치 업체의 급격한 증가에 따른 발전 설치양은 증가하고 있으나 이에 대한 효율적 운영체계 및 관리가 미흡한 상황이다. 따라서 발전단가의 증가를 초래하는 부가적인 기능 보다는 현 상태에서 발전량을 최대화시키기 위한 유지보수 관리측면으로 새로운 형태의 운영체계가 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 태양광 발전소의 운영효율 극대화를 위해 Big Data와 센서 네트워크를 활용하며 전문가 시스템의 분석을 통해 발전량 예측기술, 모듈 단위 고장검출 기술개발, 인버터 구성요소의 수명 예지 및 Report 기술, 유지보수 최적화 알고리즘 및 경제성 분석 개발 등 태양광 발전소의 최적 운용이 가능하도록 하는 스마트 모니터링 시스템 개발에 목적을 두고 있다.

크리깅 기법 기반 재생에너지 환경변수 예측 모형 개발 (Development of Prediction Model for Renewable Energy Environmental Variables Based on Kriging Techniques)

  • 최영도;백자현;전동훈;박상호;최순호;김여진;허진
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2019
  • In order to integrate large amounts of variable generation resources such as wind and solar reliably into power grids, accurate renewable energy forecasting is necessary. Since renewable energy generation output is heavily influenced by environmental variables, accurate forecasting of power generation requires meteorological data at the point where the plant is located. Therefore, a spatial approach is required to predict the meteorological variables at the interesting points. In this paper, we propose the meteorological variable prediction model for enhancing renewable generation output forecasting model. The proposed model is implemented by three geostatistical techniques: Ordinary kriging, Universal kriging and Co-kriging.

하이브리드 모델을 이용하여 중단기 태양발전량 예측 (Mid- and Short-term Power Generation Forecasting using Hybrid Model)

  • 손남례
    • 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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    • 제26권4_2호
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    • pp.715-724
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    • 2023
  • Solar energy forecasting is essential for (1) power system planning, management, and operation, requiring accurate predictions. It is crucial for (2) ensuring a continuous and sustainable power supply to customers and (3) optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and the electricity market. Recently, research has been focusing on developing solar energy forecasting models that can provide daily plans for power usage and production and be verified in the electricity market. In these prediction models, various data, including solar energy generation and climate data, are chosen to be utilized in the forecasting process. The most commonly used climate data (such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed) significantly influence the fluctuations in solar energy generation based on weather conditions. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the strengths of the Prophet model and the GRU model, which exhibits excellent predictive performance. The forecasting periods for solar energy generation are tested in short-term (2 days, 7 days) and medium-term (15 days, 30 days) scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the conventional Prophet model by more than twice in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and surpasses the modified GRU model by more than 1.5 times, showcasing superior performance.

철도인프라용 태양광발전시스템 확대를 위한 기상정보 활용 발전량 예측 비교 연구 (Comparative Study to Predict Power Generation using Meteorological Information for Expansion of Photovoltaic Power Generation System for Railway Infrastructure)

  • 유복종;박찬배;이주
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.474-481
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    • 2017
  • 국내에서 태양광 발전설비 설계 시 설계 단계에서의 태양광발전소의 발전량 예측은 국내 현장임에도 불구하고 PVsyst, PVWatts 등 해외 발전량 예측 프로그램과 해외 기상 자료를 이용하여 발전량을 예측하는 경우가 대부분을 차지하고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 기상정보를 활용한 발전량 예측 비교 연구를 위하여 현재 운영중인 2개 지역의 국내 태양광발전소를 대상지로 선정하였다. 발전량 예측 프로그램인 PVsyst를 활용하여 Meteonorm 7.1과 NASA-SSE의 해외 기상정보를 이용한 발전량 예측값과 국내 기상청 (Korea Meteorology Administration) 기상정보를 활용한 발전량 예측 정확성을 비교하였다. 추가적으로, 기상자료 비교 분석을 통한 발전량 예측 개선 방안을 연구하고, 최종적으로 실제 발전량과의 비교 분석을 통해 기후요소가 고려된 태양광 발전량 예측 수정 모델을 제시하였다.

적응적 뉴로-퍼지 모델을 이용한 태양광 발전량 예측 알고리즘 개발 (Development of PV Power Prediction Algorithm using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Model)

  • 이대종;이종필;이창성;임재윤;지평식
    • 전기학회논문지P
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    • 제64권4호
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    • pp.246-250
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    • 2015
  • Solar energy will be an increasingly important part of power generation because of its ubiquity abundance, and sustainability. To manage effectively solar energy to power system, it is essential part In this paper, we develop the PV power prediction algorithm using adaptive neuro-fuzzy model considering various input factors such as temperature, solar irradiance, sunshine hours, and cloudiness. To evaluate performance of the proposed model according to input factors, we performed various experiments by using real data.

고효율 회전 집광형 하이브리드 태양광 LED 가로등 모듈 시스템 연구 (A study of high-efficiency rotating condensing hybrid solar LED street light module system)

  • 민경호;전용한
    • Design & Manufacturing
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.50-55
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    • 2021
  • Solar power generation, which is one of the methods of using solar energy, has a high possibility of practical implementation compared to other renewable energy power generation, and it has the characteristic that it can generate as much power as needed in necessary places. In addition, maintenance is easy, unmanned operation is possible, and power management can be performed more efficiently if operated in a hybrid method with existing electric energy. Therefore, in this study, numerical analysis using a computer program was performed to analyze the efficient operation and performance improvement of solar energy of the rotating condensing type solar LED street lamp. As a result, the two-axis tracking type could obtain 15.23 % more electricity per year than the fixed type, and additional auxiliary power generation was required for the fixed type by 19 % per year than the tracking type. As a result of computational fluid dynamics(CFD) simulation for PV module surface temperature prediction, the The surface temperature of the Photovoltaics(PV) module incident surface was predicted to be about 10℃ higher than that of the fixed type.

온도와 풍속에 따른 태양광발전 효율 실증분석 연구 (A Study on Solar Power Generation Efficiency Empirical Analysis according to Temperature and Wind speed)

  • 차왕철;박정호;조욱래;김재철
    • 전기학회논문지P
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    • 제64권1호
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2015
  • Factors that have influence on solar power generation are specified into three aspects such as meteorological, geographical factors as well as equipment installation. Meteorological factors influence the most among the three. Insolation, sunshine hours, and cloud directly influence on solar power generation, whereas temperature and wind speed have impacts on equipment installation. This paper provides explanation over temperature-wind speed equation by calculating influence of temperature and wind speed on equipment installation. In order to conduct a research, pyranometer, anemometer, air thermometer, module thermometer are installed in 2MWp solar power plant located in South Cholla province, so that real-time meteorological data and generating amount can be analyzed through monitoring system. Besides, if existing and new methods are applied together, accuracy of prediction for generating amount is improved.

SARIMA 모형을 이용한 태양광 발전량 예보 모형 구축 (Solar Power Generation Forecast Model Using Seasonal ARIMA)

  • 이동현;정아현;김진영;김창기;김현구;이영섭
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제39권3호
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2019
  • New and renewable energy forecasts are key technology to reduce the annual operating cost of new and renewable facilities, and accuracy of forecasts is paramount. In this study, we intend to build a model for the prediction of short-term solar power generation for 1 hour to 3 hours. To this end, this study applied two time series technique, ARIMA model without considering seasonality and SARIMA model with considering seasonality, comparing which technique has better predictive accuracy. Comparing predicted errors by MAE measures of solar power generation for 1 hour to 3 hours at four locations, the solar power forecast model using ARIMA was better in terms of predictive accuracy than the solar power forecast model using SARIMA. On the other hand, a comparison of predicted error by RMSE measures resulted in a solar power forecast model using SARIMA being better in terms of predictive accuracy than a solar power forecast model using ARIMA.