• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Storage Period

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Prediction of Homogenization Efficiency using Response Surface Methodology (반응표면분석을 활용한 균질 효율 예측)

  • Kang, Ho Jin;Kang, Shin Ho;Shin, Yong Kook
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.202-207
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of homogenization, storage temperature, and storage period on the creaming of milk fat and changes in fat contents in the upper and lower layers and to predict the conditions for optimal homogenization efficiency using response surface methodology (RSM). The homogenization pressure, storage temperature, and storage period were set as independent variables of RSM, and the dependent variables were creaming, US Public Health Service (USPHS) code, and volume weighted mean diameter ($D_{4,3}$) in the upper and lower layers. Based on the results of RSM and regression analysis, the correlation coefficient ($R^2$) between experimental data and predicted values by RSM for homogenized milk was estimated to be more than 0.8. The RSM analysis indicated that optimal homogenization pressures of 14 MPa or more and 17 MPa or more were required to maintain the creaming layer of 3 mm or less during the storage for 15 days at $10^{\circ}C$ and $20^{\circ}C$, respectively. To keep the USPHS code at less than 10% for 15 days at $10^{\circ}C$ and $20^{\circ}C$, milk should be homogenized with a pressure of 16.8 MPa or more and 17 MPa or more, respectively.

Shelf-life prediction of packaged cigarette subjected to different degrees of sealing (봉함도에 따른 포장담배의 저장수명 예측)

  • Keun-hoi Lee;young-hoh Kim;young-taek Lee;Kwang-soo Rhim;yong-tae Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 1990
  • In order to predict the shelf-life of cigarettes packaged in typical flexible film under conditions of various temperature, relative humidity and sealing degree, a computer iterative technique was used. Although there were some significant differences at initial equilibrium relative humidity(55%), the experimental results agree fairly well with predictions following the student's t test($\alpha$=0.01) in most cases. Essentially, the higher the storage temperature, the shorter the shelf-life of the cigarette product. The bigger the differences from the initial equilibrium relative humidity, the shorter the storage period of the cigarette. Moisture transfer through the film at relatively high temperature gave higher confidence. The sealing degree, one of the storage parameters, appeared to be a major influencing factor to shelf-life. Slopes($\beta$) of the temp., sealing degree and %rh of the dependent variable to shelf life were 0.49, -0.39 and -0, 28 respectively, when analysed by multiple regression of SPSS software. Below 600m1/min sealing decree of the packed cigarette through the sealing Position at 30mmH20 differential pressure, the shelf-life could be increased by more than six months.

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Soil Salt Prediction Modeling for the Estimation of Irrigation Water Requirements for Dry Field Crops in Reclaimed Tidelands (간척지 밭작물의 관개용수량 추정을 위한 토양염분예측모형 개발)

  • 손재권;구자웅;최진규
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.96-110
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this study is to develop soil salt prediction model for the estimation of irrigation water requirements for dry field crops in reclaimed tidelands. The simulation model based on water balance equation, salt balance equation, and salt storage equation was developed for daily prediction of sa]t concentration in root zone. The data obtained from field measurement during the growing period of tomato were used to evaluate the applicability of this model. The results of this study are summarized as follows: 1.The optimum irrigation point which maximizes the crop yield in reclaimed tidelands of silt loam soil while maintaining the salt concentration within the tolerance level, ws found to be pF 1.6, and total irrigation requirement after transplanting was 602mm(6.7 mm/day)for tomato. 2.When the irrigation point was pF 1.6, the deviation between predicted and measured salt concentration was less than 4 % at the significance level of 1 7% 3.Since the deviations between predicted and measured values data decrease as the amount of irrigation water increases, the proposed model appear to be more suitable for use in reclaimed tidelands. 4.The amount of irrigation water estimated by the simulation model was 7.2mm/day in the average for cultivating tomato at the optimum irrigation point of pF 1.6.The simulation model proposed in this study can be generalized by applying it to other crops. This, model, also, could be further improved and extended to estimate desalinization effects in reclaimed tidelands by including meteorological effect, capillary phenomenon, and infiltration.

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Analysis of the Different Heated Milks using Electronic Nose (열처리를 달리한 시유의 전자코 분석)

  • Hong, Eun-Jeung;Noh, Bong-Soo;Park, Seung-Yong
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.851-859
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to investigate the application of a model system using an MS-electronic nose based on the discriminative function analysis on volatile flavors, to prediction of the shelf-life of market milk by preservation temperature and differently-loaded heat treatment. On mass spectrum, the ion fragments of volatile flavors of milk obtained from MS-electronic nose could be distinguished at amu 60, 91, 92, and 93. The response levels of volatile flavors at each amu increased in proportion to the heat treatment loaded to the milk, in the order of LTLT, HTST, and UHT. This study indicated that the discriminative function scores of the volatile flavors seemed to correlate with the preservation temperature, storage period, and heat treatment conditions; DF1 (discriminative function first score) showed a strong relationship to storage periods, with $r^2$ of 0.9965, 0.9965, and 0.9911 at temperatures of 4, 7, and $10^{\circ}C$, respectively, while DF2 was influenced by heat treatment conditions with an $r^2$ of 0.9861 at $4^{\circ}C$. It is suggested that the discriminative function analysis given by an MS-electronic nose could be used to construct a new quality control model system for the evaluation of heat treatment loaded during the processing of milk, and for predicting storage periods of market milk.

Prospect of future water resources in the basins of Chungju Dam and Soyang-gang Dam using a physics-based distributed hydrological model and a deep-learning-based LSTM model (물리기반 분포형 수문 모형과 딥러닝 기반 LSTM 모형을 활용한 충주댐 및 소양강댐 유역의 미래 수자원 전망)

  • Kim, Yongchan;Kim, Youngran;Hwang, Seonghwan;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.1115-1124
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    • 2022
  • The impact of climate change on water resources was evaluated for Chungju Dam and Soyang-gang Dam basins by constructing an integrated modeling framework consisting of a dam inflow prediction model based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a distributed hydrologic model, and an LSTM based dam outflow prediction model. Considering the uncertainty of future climate data, four models of CMIP6 GCM were used as input data of VIC model for future period (2021-2100). As a result of applying future climate data, the average inflow for period increased as the future progressed, and the inflow in the far future (2070-2100) increased by up to 22% compared to that of the observation period (1986-2020). The minimum value of dam discharge lasting 4~50 days was significantly lower than the observed value. This indicates that droughts may occur over a longer period than observed in the past, meaning that citizens of Seoul metropolitan areas may experience severe water shortages due to future droughts. In addition, compared to the near and middle futures, the change in water storage has occurred rapidly in the far future, suggesting that the difficulties of water resource management may increase.

Development and validation of BROOK90-K for estimating irrigation return flows (관개 회귀수 추정을 위한 BROOK90-K의 개발과 검증)

  • Park, Jongchul;Kim, Man-Kyu
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to develop a hydrological model of catchment water balance which is able to estimate irrigation return flows, so BROOK90-K (Kongju National University) was developed as a result of the study. BROOK90-K consists of three main modules. The first module was designed to simulate water balance for reservoir and its catchment. The second and third module was designed to simulate hydrological processes in rice paddy fields located on lower watershed and lower watershed excluding rice paddy fields. The models consider behavior of floodgate manager for estimating the storage of reservoir, and modules for water balance in lower watershed reflects agricultural factors, such as irrigation period and, complex sources of water supply, as well as irrigation methods. In this study, the models were applied on Guryangcheon stream watershed. R2, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), NS-log1p, and root mean square error between simulated and observed discharge were 0.79, 0.79, 0.69, and 4.27 mm/d respectively in the model calibration period (2001~2003). Furthermore, the model efficiencies were 0.91, 0.91, 0.73, and 2.38 mm/d respectively over the model validation period (2004~2006). In the future, the developed BROOK90-K is expected to be utilized for various modeling studies, such as the prediction of water demand, water quality environment analysis, and the development of algorithms for effective management of reservoir.

A Study on the Shelf-Life Prediction of the Domestic Single Base Propellants Ammunition : Based on 105mm High Explosive Propellants (국내 단기추진제 탄약의 저장수명 예측에 관한 연구 : 105미리 고폭탄 추진체를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Myoungjin;Park, Hyungju;Yang, Jaekyung;Baek, Janghyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.36-42
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    • 2014
  • Domestic 105mm HE (High Explosive) shell is composed of three parts that are Fuze, Projectile and Propellants. Among three parts, propelling charge of propellants part consists of single base propellants. It has been known that the lifespan of single base propellants is affected by a storage period. These are because Nitrocellulose (NC) which is the main component of propelling gunpowder can be naturally decomposed to unstable substances similar with other nitric acid ester. Even though it cannot be prevented fundamentally from being disassembled, a decomposition product ($NO_2$, $NO_3$, and $HNO_3$) and tranquillizer DPA (Diphenylamine) having high reactivity are added into a propellant to restrain induction of automatic catalysis by a decomposition product. The decay rate of the tranquillizer is also affected by a production rate of the decomposition product of NC. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the Self-Life is required to ensure against risks such as explosion. Hereupon, this paper presents a new methodology to estimate the shelf-life of single base propellants using data of ASRP (Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program) to domestic 105mm HE (propelling charge of propellants part). We selected four attributes that are inferred to have influence on distribution of the DPA amount in a propellant from the ASRP dataset through data mining processes. Then the selected attributes were used as independent variables in a regression analysis in order to estimate the shelf-life of single base propellants.

Seasonal variability of cyclone heat potential and cyclonic responses in the Bay of Bengal characterized using moored observatories

  • Vengatesan, G.;Shanmugam, P.;Venkatesan, R.;Vedachalam, N.;Joseph, Jossia K.
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.181-199
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    • 2020
  • Cyclone Heat Potential (CHP) is an essential parameter for accurate prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones. The variability of the heat storage in the near-surface layers and the vertical stratification near the surface due to large fresh water inputs create challenges in predicting the intraseasonal and interannual evolution of monsoons and tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. This paper for the first time presents the D26- referenced cyclone heat potential observed in the Bay of Bengal during the period 2012-17 based on the in-situ data collected from 5.5 million demanding offshore instrument-hours of operation in the Ocean Moored Buoy Network for Northern Indian Ocean (OMNI) buoy network by the National Institute of Ocean Technology. It is observed that the CHP in the Bay of Bengal varied from 0-220 kJ/㎠ during various seasons. From the moored buoy observations, a CHP of ~ 90 kJ/㎠ with the D26 isotherm of minimum 100m is favorable for the intensification of the post-monsoon tropical cyclones. The responses of the D26 thermal structure during major tropical cyclone events in the Bay of Bengal are also presented.

The Prediction of Shelf-life of Pickle Processed from Maengjong bambo (맹종죽순 장아찌의 유통기한 설정)

  • Kim, Dong-Chung;Cho, Eun-Hye;In, Man-Jin;Oh, Chul-Hwan;Hong, Ki-Woon;Kwon, Sang-Chul;Chae, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2641-2647
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    • 2012
  • Quality and sensory characteristics such as microbial count, pH, acidity, flavor, taste, color and overall acceptance of bamboo shoot pickle cured with red pepper paste and bamboo shoot pickle cured with soy sauce paste made of Maengjong bamboo shoots were investigated during a long-term storage at different temperature (at $25^{\circ}C$, $35^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$). Microbial contamination was not observed, and water content did not showed significant change in all samples of both pickles during the whole storage period of 30 days, regardless of storage temperature. At $25^{\circ}C$, all sensory characteristics of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle did not show a significant change for 30 d. However, at $35^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$, the flavor, taste and color of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle did not change remarkably, but the overall acceptance significantly changed from the beginning of storage. Bamboo shoot-soy sauce pickle did not give a significant change in flavor, taste and overall acceptance at $25^{\circ}C$, $35^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$. However a remarkable change in color started to be shown at 25 d in case of storage at $45^{\circ}C$. Overall acceptance and color were selected as indicating parameters for the shelf-life estimation of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle and bamboo shoot-soy sauce pickle, respectively. Based on room temperature storage and delivery at $20^{\circ}C$, the shelf-life of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle and bamboo shoot-soy sauce pickle were determined as 308 d (about 10 month) and 447 d (about 14 month), respectively.

Mathematical Models to Describe the Kinetic Behavior of Staphylococcus aureus in Jerky

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Lee, Soomin;Kim, Sejeong;Choi, Yukyung;Oh, Hyemin;Kim, Yujin;Lee, Yewon;Seo, Yeongeun;Yoon, Yohan
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.371-378
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study was to develop mathematical models for describing the kinetic behavior of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) in seasoned beef jerky. Seasoned beef jerky was cut into 10-g pieces. Next, 0.1 mL of S. aureus ATCC13565 was inoculated into the samples to obtain 3 Log CFU/g, and the samples were stored aerobically at $10^{\circ}C$, $20^{\circ}C$, $25^{\circ}C$, $30^{\circ}C$, and $35^{\circ}C$ for 600 h. S. aureus cell counts were enumerated on Baird Parker agar during storage. To develop a primary model, the Weibull model was fitted to the cell count data to calculate Delta (required time for the first decimal reduction) and ${\rho}$ (shape of curves). For secondary modeling, a polynomial model was fitted to the Delta values as a function of storage temperature. To evaluate the accuracy of the model prediction, the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated by comparing the predicted data with the observed data. The surviving S. aureus cell counts were decreased at all storage temperatures. The Delta values were longer at $10^{\circ}C$, $20^{\circ}C$, and $25^{\circ}C$ than at $30^{\circ}C$ and $35^{\circ}C$. The secondary model well-described the temperature effect on Delta with an $R^2$ value of 0.920. In validation analysis, RMSE values of 0.325 suggested that the model performance was appropriate. S. aureus in beef jerky survives for a long period at low storage temperatures and that the model developed in this study is useful for describing the kinetic behavior of S. aureus in seasoned beef jerky.