• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Failure time

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Life-Time Prediction of HNBR Diaphragm in Oil Reservoir (유압구동장치 동력원용 고무 다이아프램 저유기의 수명 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Sol A
    • Journal of Drive and Control
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.32-37
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    • 2021
  • The piston reservoir is mainly used in hydraulic blow-down system for aerospace engineering. The reservoir is heavy due to both hydraulic cylinder and piston in pressurization. The positive expulsion tank with rubber diaphragm has been mostly applied propellant and fuel tank at low pressure to satellites. To reduce weight, the reservoir that can be used at high pressure with rubber diaphragm was developed. In this research, the prediction of life-time for the rubber diaphragm was implemented through an accelerated life test, as a part of development of new reservoir. Also, the diaphragm was stored in an temperature chamber at the same condition as and operation with hydraulic oil. As a result, the life-time for a rubber diaphragm was successfully evaluated via Arrhenius law and Time-Temperature Superposition based on failure times over temperatures in the accelerated test.

Leakage Failure Determination Method of Pilot Pneumatic Directional Control Valve (파일럿형 공기압 방향제어 밸브의 누설 고장판정 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Bo Sik;Kim, Kyung Soo;Chang, Mu Seong
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.230-235
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    • 2014
  • The failure modes of pneumatic directional control valves include leakage, wear of the spool seal, and sticking of the spool. Among them, the main failure mode of the valve is leakage. The leakage is caused by the wear of the spool seal. However, due to the characteristics of the seal material, the leakage rate is fluctuated a lot rather than constantly increased over time. If life analysis is performed using the first time data of leakage failure, predicted life cycles can be different from the real life cycles. This paper predicts life cycles of the pilot pneumatic directional control valve based on the three point moving average which considers the average of the fluctuating leakage rate.

Parameter Estimation and Prediction for NHPP Software Reliability Model and Time Series Regression in Software Failure Data

  • Song, Kwang-Yoon;Chang, In-Hong
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2014
  • We consider the mean value function for NHPP software reliability model and time series regression model in software failure data. We estimate parameters for the proposed models from two data sets. The values of SSE and MSE is presented from two data sets. We compare the predicted number of faults with the actual two data sets using the mean value function and regression curve.

Life Prediction of Elastomeric U Seals in Hydraulic/Pneumatic Actuators Using NSWC Handbook (NSWC를 활용한 유공압 액추에이터 U 형 씰의 수명예측)

  • Shin, Jung Hun;Chang, Mu Seong;Kim, Sung Hyun;Jung, Dong Soo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.38 no.12
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    • pp.1379-1385
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    • 2014
  • Even the rough prediction of the product test time before the lifetime test of mechanical component begins would be of use in estimating cost and deciding how to keep up with the test. The reliability predictions of mechanical components are difficult because failure or degradation mechanisms are complicated, and few plausible databases are available for lifetime prediction. Therefore, this study conducted lifetime predictions of elastomeric U seals that were respectively installed in a hydraulic actuator and a pneumatic actuator using lifetime models and a field database based on failure physics and an actual test database obtained from the NSWC handbook. To validate the results, the predicted failure rates were compared with the actual lifetime test results acquired in the lab durability tests. Finally, this study discussed an engineering procedure to determine the coefficients in the failure rate models and analyzed the sensitivity of each influential parameter on the seal lifetime.

Bayesian reliability prediction under event tree (Event tree하에서 베이지안 기법을 이용한 신뢰도 예측)

  • 박철순;전치혁;양희중;장수영
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.24-30
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    • 1993
  • When modeling a complex system we use an event tree to analyze propagation of failure. An event tree cannot represent the statistical interrelationships among parameters, but it can be represented as a statistically identical influence diagram so that parameter updating can be easily performed. After updating parameters we can calculate posterior distribution of the failure rate for each path. But exact distribution requires considerably complex numerical integration. We propose an approximation method to calculate the posterior and derive the predictive distribution of the time to next failure. Finally we introduce the system which implements our methodology.

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An Improvement On-Line Failure Diagnosis of DC Link Capacitor in PWM Power Converters (PWM 전력 컨버터에서 DC 링크 커패시터의 개선된 온라인 고장 진단)

  • Shon, Jin-Geun;Na, Chae-Dong
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2010
  • DC link electrolytic capacitors are widely used in various PWM power converter system, such as adjustable speed driver(ASD) or DC/DC converter. Electrolytic capacitors, which is the most of the time affected by aging effect, plays a very important role for the power electronics system quality and reliability. This objective of this paper is to propose a improvement method to detect the rise of equivalent series resistor(ESR) in order to realize the online failure prediction of electrolytic capacitor for DC link of PWM power converter. The ESR detection scheme is based on the determination of the electrolytic capacitor AC losses calculated from voltage/current measurement using AC coupling. Therefore, the preposed online failure prediction method has the merits of easy ESR computation and circuit simplicity compare with BPF method. Simulation results show the veridity of the proposed on-line ESR estimation method.

Study on the Economic Analysis for Non-Prediction Algorithm with the Energy Storage System (에너지저장장치 도입 시 비예측 알고리즘의 경제성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Jong-Seok;Kang, Byoung-Wook;Chai, Hui-Seok;Kim, Jae-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.94-99
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    • 2015
  • Prediction algorithm of the energy storage system in accordance with the load pattern can cause economic loss in case of a failure prediction. In addition, algorithm that uses TOU(Time of Use) based on the revelation by the power electric charge which covers most simply is an inefficient operation because it is only for the purpose of reducing the peak power. In this paper, we introduced a non-prediction algorithm with a conventional TOU in order to solve this problem operating the energy storage system economic and efficient.

A Study on Analysis Method of Warranty Data Using Multivariate Model (다변량 모형을 이용한 보증데이터 분석 방법 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Gurl;Sung, Ki-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.241-247
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of the warranty data analysis can be classified into two categories. Two goals is a failure cause analysis and life prediction analysis. In this paper first, we applied multivariate analysis method that can be estimated in consideration of various factors on the failure cause warranty data. In particular, we apply the Tree model and Cox model. The advantage of the Tree is easy to interpret this result as compared to other models. In addition Cox model can quantitatively express the risk. Second, this paper proposed a multivariate life prediction model (AFT) considering a variety of factors. By applying the actual warranty data confirmed the usability.

A Study on The Feliability Predication Model of Gyroscope (자이로의 신뢰성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • 백순흠;문홍기;김호룡
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.475-481
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    • 1993
  • The objective of this study is to develope the reliability prediction model for Float Rated Integrating Gyroscope( :FRIG) at maximum loading. The equation of motion for FRIG is firstly derived to set up the reliability prediction model. To analysis reliability or all parts of the gyro is not easy due to their complicated structure. Therefore the failure parts are chosen by Failure Mode Effective Analysis (:FMEA). F.E.M is utilized to calculate loads for the selseced rotating assembly and pivot / jewel. The technical reliability is calculated by applying reliability design theory with these results and the performance reliability is sought through distribution estimation with error test data. The bulk reliability of gyroscope is sought by applying the two results. The present prediction results are compared with the accumulation time in good agreement.

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A study on the availability prediction analysis for the Environmental Satellite Earth Station (환경위성지상국 시스템 가용도 예측분석 연구)

  • Eun, Jong Won;Choi, Won Jun;Lee, Eun Gyu
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2015
  • To predict the system availability of the National Environmental Satellite Center Earth Station, mathematical models of H/W and S/W availability, the availability estimating methods for parallel were systematically presented in this paper. Furthermore, the results of the availability prediction for the Environmental Satellite Earth Station were estimated. The analytical results of Environmental Satellite Earth Station system availability were estimated as 0.998072.