• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction models

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The Study on Empirical Propagation Path Loss Model in the Antler Terminal Environment (엔틀러 터미널 환경에서 실험적인 패스 로스 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Tae;Kim, Jin-Wook;Jo, Yun-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Uk;Yoon, In-Seop;Park, Hyo-Dal
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.516-523
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, The path loss model of Air Traffic Control(ATC) telecommunication radio channel has been studied at the Incheon International Airport(IIA) with the terminal with two antlers. We measured two frequencies among VHF/UHF channel bands. The transmitting site radiated the Continuous Wave(CW). The propagation measurement was taken using the moving vehicle equipped with receiver and antenna. The transmitting power, frequency and antenna height are the same as the current operating condition. The path loss exponent and intercept parameters were extracted by the basic path loss model and hata model. The path loss exponents at passager terminal areas were 3.32 and 3.10 respectively in 128.2 MHz and 269.1 MHz. The deviation of prediction error is 9.69 and 9.65. The new path loss equation at the terminal area was also developed using the derived path loss parameters. The new path loss was compared with other models. This result will be helpful for the ATC site selection and service quality evaluation.

An intercomparison study between optimization algorithms for parameter estimation of microphysics in Unified model : Micro-genetic algorithm and Harmony search algorithm (통합모델의 강수물리과정 모수 최적화를 위한 알고리즘 비교 연구 : 마이크로 유전알고리즘과 하모니 탐색 알고리즘)

  • Jang, Jiyeon;Lee, Yong Hee;Joo, Sangwon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2017
  • The microphysical processes of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model cover the following : fall speed, accretion, autoconversion, droplet size distribution, etc. However, the microphysical processes and parameters have a significant degree of uncertainty. Parameter estimation was generally used to reduce errors in NWP models associated with uncertainty. In this study, the micro- genetic algorithm and harmony search algorithm were used as an optimization algorithm for estimating parameters. And we estimate parameters of microphysics for the Unified model in the case of precipitation in Korea. The differences which occurred during the optimization process were due to different characteristics of the two algorithms. The micro-genetic algorithm converged to about 1.033 after 440 times. The harmony search algorithm converged to about 1.031 after 60 times. It shows that the harmony search algorithm estimated optimal parameters more quickly than the micro-genetic algorithm. Therefore, if you need to search for the optimal parameter within a faster time in the NWP model optimization problem with large calculation cost, the harmony search algorithm is more suitable.

Estimation of Simulated Radiances of the OSMI over the Oceans (대양에서의 OSMI 모의 복사량 산출)

  • 임효숙;김용승;이동한
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.227-238
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    • 1999
  • In advance of launch, simulated radiances of the Ocean Scanning Multispectral Imager (OSMI) will be very useful to guess the real imagery of OSMI and to prepare for data processing of OSMI. The data processing system for OSMI which is one of sensors aboard Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite (KOMPSAT) scheduled for launch in 1999 is developed based on the SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS). Simulation of radiances requires information on the spectral band, orbital and scanning characteristics of the OSMI and KOMPSAT spacecraft. This paper also describes a method to create simulated radiances of the OSMI over the oceans. Our method for constructing a simulated OSMI imagery is to propagate a KOMPSAT orbit over a field of Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) pigment concentrations and to use the values and atmospheric components for calculation of total radiances. A modified Brouwer-Lyddane model with drag was used for the realistic orbit prediction, the CZCS pigment concentrations were used to compute water-leaving radiances, and a variety of radiative transfer models were used to calculate atmospheric contributions to total radiances detected by OSMI. Imagery of the simulated OSMI radiances for 412, 443, 490, 555, 765, 865nm was obtained. As expected, water-leaving radiances were only a small fraction (below 10%) of total radiances and sun glint contaminations were observed near the solar declination. Therefore, atmospheric correction is critical in the calculation of pigment concentration from total radiances. Because the imagery near the sun's glitter pattern is virtually useless and must be discarded, more advanced data collection planning will be required to succeed in the mission of OSMI which is consistent monitoring of global oceans during three year mission lifetime.

A Survey of Weather Forecasting Software and Installation of Low Resolution of the GloSea6 Software (기상예측시스템 소프트웨어 조사 및 GloSea6 소프트웨어 저해상도 설치방법 구현)

  • Chung, Sung-Wook;Lee, Chang-Hyun;Jeong, Dong-Min;Yeom, Gi-Hun
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.349-361
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    • 2021
  • With the development of technology and the advancement of weather forecasting models and prediction methods, higher performance weather forecasting software has been developed, and more precise and accurate weather forecasting is possible by performing software using supercomputers. In this paper, the weather forecast model used by six major countries is investigated and its characteristics are analyzed, and the Korea Meteorological Administration currently uses it in collaboration with the UK Meteorological Administration since 2012 and explains the GloSea However, the existing GloSea was conducted only on the Meteorological Administration supercomputer, making it difficult for various researchers to perform detailed research by specialized field. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a standard experimental environment in which the low-resolution version based on GloSea6 currently used in Korea can be used in local systems and test it to present the localization of low-resolution GloSea6 that can be performed in the laboratory environment. In other words, in this paper, the local portability of low-resolution Globe6 is verified by establishing a basic architecture consisting of a user terminal-calculation server-repository server and performing execution tests of the software.

Classification of Soil Creep Hazard Class Using Machine Learning (기계학습기법을 이용한 땅밀림 위험등급 분류)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Le, Xuan-Hien;Yeon, Min Ho;Seo, Jun Pyo;Lee, Chang Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • In this study, classification models were built using machine learning techniques that can classify the soil creep risk into three classes from A to C (A: risk, B: moderate, C: good). A total of six machine learning techniques were used: K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting and then their classification accuracy was analyzed using the nationwide soil creep field survey data in 2019 and 2020. As a result of classification accuracy analysis, all six methods showed excellent accuracy of 0.9 or more. The methods where numerical data were applied for data training showed better performance than the methods based on character data of field survey evaluation table. Moreover, the methods learned with the data group (R1~R4) reflecting the expert opinion had higher accuracy than the field survey evaluation score data group (C1~C4). The machine learning can be used as a tool for prediction of soil creep if high-quality data are continuously secured and updated in the future.

Factors Influencing Character of Nursing Students (간호대학생의 인성에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Nam, Soung-Mi;Park, Jeong-Sook;Shin, Eun-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with character of nursing students using ecological theory. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted with 296 nursing students. Collected data from self report questionnaires were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA and multiple regression with SPSS WIN 21.0. The Results of this study were as follows. A total of 2 models were examined according to individual, microsystem in ecological system theory. In the first model including individual factors, positive emotion, communication ability were significant factors explain character of nursing students. In the second model adding micro system factors family strength and major satisfaction found to be significant factors. The prediction factors of nursing student' character were communication ability (${\beta}=.431$, p<.001), major satisfaction (${\beta}=.310$, p<.001) and family strength (${\beta}=.176$, p<.001). The explanation power was 55.6%. These results showed that factors affecting character of nursing students are communication ability, major satisfaction, and family strength. Therefore, we suggest to develop various character education programs considering these factors.

Estimation of Resistance Bias Factors for the Ultimate Limit State of Aggregate Pier Reinforced Soil (쇄석다짐말뚝으로 개량된 지반의 극한한계상태에 대한 저항편향계수 산정)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Byoung-Il;Kim, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the statistical characteristics of the resistance bias factors were analyzed using a high-quality field load test database, and the total resistance bias factors were estimated considering the soil uncertainty and construction errors for the application of the limit state design of aggregate pier foundation. The MLR model by Bong and Kim (2017), which has a higher prediction performance than the previous models was used for estimating the resistance bias factors, and its suitability was evaluated. The chi-square goodness of fit test was performed to estimate the probability distribution of the resistance bias factors, and the normal distribution was found to be most suitable. The total variability in the nominal resistance was estimated including the uncertainty of undrained shear strength and construction errors that can occur during the aggregate pier construction. Finally, the probability distribution of the total resistance bias factors is shown to follow a log-normal distribution. The parameters of the probability distribution according to the coefficient of variation of total resistance bias factors were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, and their regression equations were proposed for simple application.

Estimation of CO2 Net Atmospheric Flux in the Middle and Lower Nakdong River, and Influence Factors Analysis (낙동강 중하류에서 이산화탄소 순배출 플럭스 산정 및 영향인자 분석)

  • Lee, Eunju;Chung, Sewoong;Park, Hyungseok;Kim, Sungjin;Park, Daeyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.316-331
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    • 2019
  • Carbon dioxide($CO_2$) emission from rivers to the atmosphere is a key component in the global carbon cycle. Most of the rivers are supersaturated with $CO_2$. At a global scale, the amount of $CO_2$ emission from rivers is reported to be five-fold greater than that from lakes and reservoirs, but relevant data are rare in Korea. The objectives of this study is to estimate the $CO_2$ net atmospheric flux(NAF) from the upstream of Gangjeong-Goryeong Weir(GGW), Dalseong Weir(DSW), Hapcheon-Changnyeong Weir(HCW), and Changnyeong-Haman Weir(CHW) located in Nakdong River South Korea) using field and laboratory experiments and to apply data mining techniques to develop parsimonious prediction models that can be used to estimate $CO_2$ NAF with physical and water quality variables that can be collected easily. As a result, the study sites were all heterotrophic systems that often released $CO_2$ to the atmosphere, except when the algal photosynthesis was active.The median $CO_2$ NAF was minimum $391.5mg-CO_2/m^2$ day at GGW and maximum $1472.7mg-CO_2/m^2$ day at DSW. The $CO_2$ NAF showed a negative correlation with pH and Chl-a since the overgrowth of the algae consumed $CO_2$ in the water and increased the pH. As the parsimonious multiple regression model and random forest model developed, this study showed an excellent performance with the $Adj.R^2$ value higher than 0.77 in all weirs. Thus, these methods can be used to estimate $CO_2$ NAF in the river even if there is no $pCO_2$ measurement data.

Prediction of itching diagnostic marker through RNA sequencing of contact hypersensitivity and skin scratching stimulation mice models

  • Kim, Young-Won;Zhou, Tong;Ko, Eun-A;Kim, Seongtae;Lee, Donghee;Seo, Yelim;Kwon, Nahee;Choi, Taeyeon;Lim, Heejung;Cho, Sungvin;Bae, Gwanhui;Hwang, Yuseong;Kim, Dojin;Park, Hyewon;Lee, Minjae;Jang, Eunkyung;Choi, Jeongyoon;Bae, Hyemi;Lim, Inja;Bang, Hyoweon;Ko, Jae-Hong
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.151-159
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    • 2019
  • Pruritus (itching) is classically defined as an unpleasant cutaneous sensation that leads to scratching behavior. Although the scientific criteria of classification for pruritic diseases are not clear, it can be divided as acute or chronic by duration of symptoms. In this study, we investigated whether skin injury caused by chemical (contact hypersensitivity, CHS) or physical (skin-scratching stimulation, SSS) stimuli causes initial pruritus and analyzed gene expression profiles systemically to determine how changes in skin gene expression in the affected area are related to itching. In both CHS and SSS, we ranked the Gene Ontology Biological Process terms that are generally associated with changes. The factors associated with upregulation were keratinization, inflammatory response and neutrophil chemotaxis. The Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway shows the difference of immune system, cell growth and death, signaling molecules and interactions, and signal transduction pathways. Il1a, Il1b and Il22 were upregulated in the CHS, and Tnf, Tnfrsf1b, Il1b, Il1r1 and Il6 were upregulated in the SSS. Trpc1 channel genes were observed in representative itching-related candidate genes. By comparing and analyzing RNA-sequencing data obtained from the skin tissue of each animal model in these characteristic stages, it is possible to find useful diagnostic markers for the treatment of itching, to diagnose itching causes and to apply customized treatment.

A comparison and prediction of total fertility rate using parametric, non-parametric, and Bayesian model (모수, 비모수, 베이지안 출산율 모형을 활용한 합계출산율 예측과 비교)

  • Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.677-692
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    • 2018
  • The total fertility rate of Korea was 1.05 in 2017, showing a return to the 1.08 level in the year 2005. 1.05 is a very low fertility level that is far from replacement level fertility or safety zone 1.5. The number may indicate a low fertility trap. It is therefore important to predict fertility than at any other time. In the meantime, we have predicted the age-specific fertility rate and total fertility rate by various statistical methods. When the data trend is disconnected or fluctuating, it applied a nonparametric method applying the smoothness and weight. In addition, the Bayesian method of using the pre-distribution of fertility rates in advanced countries with reference to the three-stage transition phenomenon have been applied. This paper examines which method is reasonable in terms of precision and feasibility by applying estimation, forecasting, and comparing the results of the recent variability of the Korean fertility rate with parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian methods. The results of the analysis showed that the total fertility rate was in the order of KOSTAT's total fertility rate, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric method outcomes. Given the level of TFR 1.05 in 2017, the predicted total fertility rate derived from the parametric and nonparametric models is most reasonable. In addition, if a fertility rate data is highly complete and a quality is good, the parametric model approach is superior to other methods in terms of parameter estimation, calculation efficiency and goodness-of-fit.