• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction modeling

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Learning for Environment and Behavior Pattern Using Recurrent Modular Neural Network Based on Estimated Emotion (감정평가에 기반한 환경과 행동패턴 학습을 위한 궤환 모듈라 네트워크)

  • Kim, Seong-Joo;Choi, Woo-Kyung;Kim, Yong-Min;Jeon, Hong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2004
  • Rational sense is affected by emotion. If we add the factor of estimated emotion by environment information into robots, we may get more intelligent and human-friendly robots. However, various sensory information and pattern classification are prescribed for robots to learn emotion so that the networks are suitable for the necessity of robots. Neural network has superior ability to extract character of system but neural network has defect of temporal cross talk and local minimum convergence. To solve the defects, many kinds of modular neural networks have been proposed because they divide a complex problem into simple several subproblems. The modular neural network, introduced by Jacobs and Jordan, shows an excellent ability of recomposition and recombination of complex work. On the other hand, the recurrent network acquires state representations and representations of state make the recurrent neural network suitable for diverse applications such as nonlinear prediction and modeling. In this paper, we applied recurrent network for the expert network in the modular neural network structure to learn data pattern based on emotional assessment. To show the performance of the proposed network, simulation of learning the environment and behavior pattern is proceeded with the real time implementation. The given problem is very complex and has too many cases to learn. The result will show the performance and good ability of the proposed network and will be compared with the result of other method, general modular neural network.

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Modeling by Weighted Average Defuzzification Based on NEWFM (NEWFM 기반 가중평균 역퍼지화에 의한 비선형 시계열 예측 모델링)

  • Chai, Soo-Han;Lim, Joon-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.563-568
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a methodology for predicting nonlinear time series based on the neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM). The degree of classification intensity is obtained by bounded sum of weighted fuzzy membership functions extracted by NEWFM, then weighted average defuzzification is used for predicting nonlinear time series. The experimental results demonstrate that NEWFM has the classification capability of 92.22% against the target class of GDP. The time series created by NEWFM model has a relatively close approximation to the GDP which is a typical business cycle indicator, and has been proved to be a useful indicator which has the turning point forecasting capability of average 12 months in the peak point and average 6 months in the trough point during 5th to 8th cyclical period. In addition, NEWFM measures the efficiency of the economic indexes by the feature selection and enables the users to forecast with reduced numbers of 7 among 10 leading indexes while improving the classification rate from 90% to 92.22%.

Design of TMO Model based Dynamic Analysis Framework: Components and Metrics (TMO모델 기반의 동적 분석 프레임워크 설계 : 구성요소 및 측정지수)

  • Jeong, Yoon-Seok;Kim, Tae-Wan;Chang, Chun-Hyon
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.377-392
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    • 2005
  • A lot of studies to measure and analyze the system performance have been done in areas such as system modeling, performance measurement, monitoring, and performance prediction since the advent of a computer system. Studies on a framework to unify the performance related areas have rarely been performed although many studies in the various areas have been done, however. In the case of TMO(Time-Triggered Message-Triggered Object), a real-time programming model, it hardly provides tools and frameworks on the performance except a simple run-time monitor. So it is difficult to analyze the performance of the real-time system and the process based on TMO. Thus, in this paper, we propose a framework for the dynamic analysis of the real-time system based on TMO, TDAF(TMO based Dynamic Analysis Framework). TDAF treats all the processes for the performance measurement and analysis, and Provides developers with more reliable information systematically combining a load model, a performance model, and a reporting model. To support this framework, we propose a load model which is extended by applying TMO model to the conventional one, and we provide the load calculation algorithm to compute the load of TMO objects. Additionally, based on TMO model, we propose performance algorithms which implement the conceptual performance metrics, and we present the reporting model and algorithms which can derive the period and deadline for the real-time processes based on the load and performance value. In last, we perform some experiments to validate the reliability of the load calculation algorithm, and provide the experimental result.

Closed Static Chamber Methods for Measurement of Methane Fluxes from a Rice Paddy: A Review (벼논 메탄 플럭스 측정용 폐쇄형 정적 챔버법: 고찰)

  • Ju, Okjung;Kang, Namgoo;Lim, Gapjune
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2020
  • Accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emissions is a cornerstone of every climate change response study, and reliable assessment of greenhouse gas emission data is being used as a practical basis for the entire climate change prediction and modeling studies. Essential, fundamental technologies for estimating greenhouse gas emissions include an on-site monitoring technology, an evaluation methodology of uncertainty in emission factors, and a verification technology for reductions. The closed chamber method is being commonly used to measure gas fluxes between soil-vegetation and atmosphere. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. This study presented the technical bases of the closed chamber method for measuring methane fluxes from a rice paddy. The methane fluxes from rice paddies occupy the largest portion of a single source of greenhouse gas in the agricultural field. We reviewed the international and the domestic studies on automated chamber monitoring systems that have been developed from manually operated chambers. Based on this review, we discussed scientific concerns on chamber methods with a particular focus on quality control for improving measurement reliability of field data.

Implementation of Barcelona Basic Model into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D (TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D의 Barcelona Basic Model 해석 모듈 개발)

  • Lee, Changsoo;Lee, Jaewon;Kim, Minseop;Kim, Geon Young
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.39-62
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    • 2020
  • In this study, Barcelona Basic Model (BBM) was implemented into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D for the numerical analysis of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) behavior of unsaturated soils and the prediction of long-term behaviors. Similar to the methodology described in a previous study for the implementation of BBM into TOUGH-FLAC, the User Defined Model (UDM) of FLAC based on the Modified Cam Clay Model (MCCM) and the FISH function of FLAC3D were used to extend the existing MCCM module in FLAC3D for the implementation of BBM into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D. In the developed BBM module in TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D, the plastic strains due to change in suction increase (SI) in addition to mean effective stress are calculated. In addition to loading-collapse (LC) yield surface, suction increase (SI) yield surface is changed by hardening rules in the developed BBM module. Several numerical simulations were conducted to verify and validate the implementation of BBM: using an example presented in the FLAC3D manual for the standard MCCM, simulation results using COMSOL, and experimental data presented in SKB Reports. In addition, the developed BBM analysis module was validated by simultaneously performing a series of modeling tests that were performed for the validation of the Quick tools developed for the purpose of effectively deriving BBM parameters, and by comparing the Quick tools and Code_Bright results reported in a previous study.

Determination of the Optimized Structure of Self-Organizing Map for the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis in Naju (나주지점의 강우-유출 해석을 위한 최적의 SOM 구조 결정)

  • Kim, Yong-Gu;Jin, Young-Hoon;Park, Sung-Chun;Jeong, Choen-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.995-1007
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    • 2008
  • Studies on modeling the rainfall-runoff relationship which shows nonlinear trend strongly use artificial neural networks theory not only for the prediction but also for the characteristics analysis of the data used by pattern classification. For the pattern classification, the results from Self-Organizing Map (SOM) mention that the map size and array for the SOM training have significantly influenced on the SOM performance. Since there is no deterministic method or theoretical equation to determine the number of rows and columns for the map size, hexagonal array is generally used for the map array. Therefore, this study present a determination of the optimized map structure for the rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station considering the map size and array simultaneously which can represent the classified characterization of rainfall-runoff relationship. The result showed that the map size of 20$\times$16 hexagonal array with 8-clustered patterns was selected as an appropriate map structure for rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station.

Trend Analysis using Topic Modeling for Simulation Studies (토픽 모델링을 이용한 시뮬레이션 연구 동향 분석)

  • Na, Sang-Tae;Kim, Ja-Hee;Jung, Min-Ho;Ahn, Joo-Eon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2016
  • The recent diversification in terms of the scope and techniques used for simulations has highlighted the importance of analyzing state of the art trends and applying these for educational and study purposes. While qualitative methods such as literature research or experts' assessments have previously been used, such methods are in fact likely to reflect the subjective viewpoint of experts, and to involve too much time and money for the results obtained. For the purpose of an objective analysis, a quantitative analysis that included the examination of topics found in domestic academic journal articles was conducted in the present study. In this regard, simulation was found to be most actively used domestically in the electrical and electronic fields. In addition, simulation was also found to be employed for the purpose of education and entertainment in the social sciences. The results of this study are expected to help to facilitate the prediction of the direction of the development of not only the Korea Society for Simulation, but also domestic simulation studies. This study also raises the possibility of applying text mining to trend analysis, and proves that it can be a useful method for deriving future key topics and helping experts' decisions regarding quantitative data.

Classification Modeling for Predicting Medical Subjects using Patients' Subjective Symptom Text (환자의 주관적 증상 텍스트에 대한 진료과목 분류 모델 구축)

  • Lee, Seohee;Kang, Juyoung
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2021
  • In the field of medical artificial intelligence, there have been a lot of researches on disease prediction and classification algorithms that can help doctors judge, but relatively less interested in artificial intelligence that can help medical consumers acquire and judge information. The fact that more than 150,000 questions have been asked about which hospital to go over the past year in NAVER portal will be a testament to the need to provide medical information suitable for medical consumers. Therefore, in this study, we wanted to establish a classification model that classifies 8 medical subjects for symptom text directly described by patients which was collected from NAVER portal to help consumers choose appropriate medical subjects for their symptoms. In order to ensure the validity of the data involving patients' subject matter, we conducted similarity measurements between objective symptom text (typical symptoms by medical subjects organized by the Seoul Emergency Medical Information Center) and subjective symptoms (NAVER data). Similarity measurements demonstrated that if the two texts were symptoms of the same medical subject, they had relatively higher similarity than symptomatic texts from different medical subjects. Following the above procedure, the classification model was constructed using a ridge regression model for subjective symptom text that obtained validity, resulting in an accuracy of 0.73.

Numerical Experiment of Driftwood Generation and Deposition Patterns by Tsunami (쓰나미에 의한 유목의 생성과 퇴적패턴의 수치모의실험)

  • Kang, Tae Un;Jang, Chang-Lae;Lee, Nam Joo;Lee, Won Ho
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2021
  • We studied driftwood behaviors including generation and deposition in a tsunami using a numerical simulation. We used an integrated two-dimensional numerical model, which included a driftwood dynamics model. The study area was Sendai, Japan. Observation data collected by Inagaki et al. (2012) were used to verify the simulation results by comparing them with driftwood deposition patterns. A simplified model was developed to consider the threshold of driftwood generation by the drag force of water flows. To consider the volume of driftwood generated, we estimated the total wood number in the study area using Google Earth. Therefore, we simulated more than 13,000 pieces of driftwood that were generated and transported inland from approximately 300,000 trees that were growing in the forest. The final distribution of the driftwood was similar to the observation data. The reproducibility of the generation and deposition patterns of driftwood showed good agreement in terms of longitudinal deposition pattern. In the future, a sensitivity analysis on driftwood parameters, such as the size of the wood, boundary conditions, and grid size, will be implemented to predict the travel patterns of driftwood. Such modeling will be a useful methodology for disaster prediction based on water flow and driftwood.

Improved Performance of Image Semantic Segmentation using NASNet (NASNet을 이용한 이미지 시맨틱 분할 성능 개선)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Yoo, Kee-Youn;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.274-282
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, big data analysis has been expanded to include automatic control through reinforcement learning as well as prediction through modeling. Research on the utilization of image data is actively carried out in various industrial fields such as chemical, manufacturing, agriculture, and bio-industry. In this paper, we applied NASNet, which is an AutoML reinforced learning algorithm, to DeepU-Net neural network that modified U-Net to improve image semantic segmentation performance. We used BRATS2015 MRI data for performance verification. Simulation results show that DeepU-Net has more performance than the U-Net neural network. In order to improve the image segmentation performance, remove dropouts that are typically applied to neural networks, when the number of kernels and filters obtained through reinforcement learning in DeepU-Net was selected as a hyperparameter of neural network. The results show that the training accuracy is 0.5% and the verification accuracy is 0.3% better than DeepU-Net. The results of this study can be applied to various fields such as MRI brain imaging diagnosis, thermal imaging camera abnormality diagnosis, Nondestructive inspection diagnosis, chemical leakage monitoring, and monitoring forest fire through CCTV.