• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction modeling

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A study of a system for predicting damages of complex disasters considering the damage of major facilities (주요 시설물 피해를 고려한 복합재난 피해 예측 시스템 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Byung-Jin;Lee, Byung-Hoon;Oh, Seung-Hee;Lee, Yong-Tea;Kim, Kyung-Seok
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2017
  • Recently, disasters have become bigger and more complex, and the economic damage has increased due to the increase of urbanization and the concentration of infrastructure. These large complex disasters occur simultaneously in the second and third disasters due to the first single disaster, but the existing disaster management system in Korea is less adaptable because it is divided into natural disasters and social disasters. The cause of the complex disaster is the rapid urbanization of the residential environment caused by the change of the industrial structure, and the threat factors are various and unpredictable in the living environment. Natural disasters are becoming larger and more complex due to climate change due to global warming. Unlike the past, natural disasters are likely to develop into multiple disasters such as urban paralysis. Therefore, this paper considers natural disasters and social disasters in a comprehensive concept in order to overcome limitations of disaster management by existing single factors and manage disasters effectively and rationally. It is expected that it will play a big role in protecting the lives and property of the people through the establishment of a preemptive disaster management framework.

A Study on Application of GPS for Deflection Management of Curved PCT Girder Bridge under Construction (시공 중 곡선형 PCT 거더교의 처짐 관리를 위한 GPS 적용 연구)

  • Kyu Dal, Lee;Jin Duk, Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.453-461
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    • 2015
  • In order to manage the deflection of a curved PCT girder bridge during construction, a GPS receiver was installed at the spot predicted to be the weak point during the incremental launching so as to measure the deflection at each construction stage. The deflections obtained in the experiment were compared with those derived from the monitoring of stress, temperature and inclination. The comparative analysis of the GPS measurement and analytical values obtained from finite element modeling with respect to the launching distance showed that the measured values differ by 0.6 to 1.6 times to the analytical results. This difference could be significantly reduced by thermal calibration. From the analysis of the behavioral pattern of the bridge, deflection occurred during construction in the concrete tip due to the deflection at the head of the nose at the 95m and 75m-spots, and compression and tension developed respectively at the compression weak zone and tension weak zone. The application of GPS appeared to enable more efficient management of the deflection during the erection of the curved PCT girder bridge and is expected to be helpful for the prediction and management of the behavior in future ILM construction sites.

Development and Validation Test of Effective Wet Scavenging Contribution Regression Models Using Long-term Air Monitoring and Weather Database (장기간 대기오염 및 기상자료를 이용한 유효강수세정 기여율 회귀모델의 개발 및 유효성 검사)

  • Lim, Deukyong;Lee, Tae-Jung;Kim, Dong-Sool
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2013
  • This study used long-term air and weather data from 2000 to 2009 as raw data sets to develop regression models in order to estimate precipitation scavenging contributions of ambient $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ in Korea. The data were initially analyzed to calculate scavenging ratio (SR), defined as the removal efficiency for $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ by actual precipitation. Next, the effective scavenging contributions (ESC) with considering precipitation probability density were calculated for each sector of precipitation range. Finally, the empirical regression equations for the two air pollutants were separately developed, and then the equations were applied to test the model validity with the raw data sets of 2010 and 2011, which were not involved in the modeling process. The results showed that the predicted $PM_{10}$ ESC by the model was 23.8% and the observed $PM_{10}$ ESCs were 23.6% in 2010 and 24.0% in 2011, respectively. As for $NO_2$, the predicted ESC by the model was 16.3% and the observed ESCs were 16.4% in 2010 and 16.6% in 2011, respectively. Thus the developed regression models fitted quite well the actual scavenging contribution for both ambient $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$. The models can then be used as a good tool to quantitatively apportion the natural and anthropogenic sink contribution in Korea. However, to apply the models for far future, the precipitation probability density function (PPDF) as a weather variable in the model equations must be renewed periodically to increase prediction accuracy and reliability. Further, in order to apply the models in a specific local area, it is recommended that the long-term oriented local PPDF should be inserted in the models.

Machinability investigation and sustainability assessment in FDHT with coated ceramic tool

  • Panda, Asutosh;Das, Sudhansu Ranjan;Dhupal, Debabrata
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.681-698
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    • 2020
  • The paper addresses contribution to the modeling and optimization of major machinability parameters (cutting force, surface roughness, and tool wear) in finish dry hard turning (FDHT) for machinability evaluation of hardened AISI grade die steel D3 with PVD-TiN coated (Al2O3-TiCN) mixed ceramic tool insert. The turning trials are performed based on Taguchi's L18 orthogonal array design of experiments for the development of regression model as well as adequate model prediction by considering tool approach angle, nose radius, cutting speed, feed rate, and depth of cut as major machining parameters. The models or correlations are developed by employing multiple regression analysis (MRA). In addition, statistical technique (response surface methodology) followed by computational approaches (genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization) have been employed for multiple response optimization. Thereafter, the effectiveness of proposed three (RSM, GA, PSO) optimization techniques are evaluated by confirmation test and subsequently the best optimization results have been used for estimation of energy consumption which includes savings of carbon footprint towards green machining and for tool life estimation followed by cost analysis to justify the economic feasibility of PVD-TiN coated Al2O3+TiCN mixed ceramic tool in FDHT operation. Finally, estimation of energy savings, economic analysis, and sustainability assessment are performed by employing carbon footprint analysis, Gilbert approach, and Pugh matrix, respectively. Novelty aspects, the present work: (i) contributes to practical industrial application of finish hard turning for the shaft and die makers to select the optimum cutting conditions in a range of hardness of 45-60 HRC, (ii) demonstrates the replacement of expensive, time-consuming conventional cylindrical grinding process and proposes the alternative of costlier CBN tool by utilizing ceramic tool in hard turning processes considering technological, economical and ecological aspects, which are helpful and efficient from industrial point of view, (iii) provides environment friendliness, cleaner production for machining of hardened steels, (iv) helps to improve the desirable machinability characteristics, and (v) serves as a knowledge for the development of a common language for sustainable manufacturing in both research field and industrial practice.

Intercomparison of Change Point Analysis Methods for Identification of Inhomogeneity in Rainfall Series and Applications (강우자료의 비동질성 규명을 위한 변동점 분석기법의 상호비교 및 적용)

  • Lee, Sangho;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Yeong Seob;Sung, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.671-684
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    • 2014
  • Change point analysis is a efficient tool to understand the fundamental information in hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, discharge, temperature etc. Especially, this fundamental information to change points to future rainfall data identified by reasonable detection skills can affect the prediction of flood and drought occurrence because well detected change points provide a key to resolve the non-stationary or inhomogeneous problem by climate change. Therefore, in this study, the comparative study to assess the performance of the 3 change point detection skills, cumulative sum (CUSUM) method, Bayesian change point (BCP) method, and segmentation by dynamic programming (DP) was performed. After assessment of the performance of the proposed detection skills using the 3 types of the synthetic series, the 2 reasonable detection skills were applied to the observed and future rainfall data at the 5 rainfall gauges in South Korea. Finally, it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) could be best detection skill and DP could be reasonably recommended through the comparative study. Also it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) and DP detection skills to find some change points could be reasonable at the North-eastern part in South Korea. In future, the results in this study can be efficiently used to resolve the non-stationary problems in hydrological modeling considering inhomogeneity or nonstationarity.

A Study on Development of the Tidal Database for the Philippines (필리핀을 위한 조석 데이터베이스 개발에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Eung-Hyun;AHN, Se-Jin;SHIM, Moon-Bo;JEON, Hae-Yeon;KANG, Ho-Yun;KIM, Dae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.158-168
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    • 2019
  • Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency(KHOA) carried out a research project named 'Marine Fisheries Infrastructure Construction and Technology Training for the Philippines' as part of the 1st Official Development Assistance(ODA) from 2015 to 2018. It is preparing for the 2nd ODA project which will begin in 2020. Besides, recently, the Philippines is paying attention to marine territory management and response capability due to problems such as the sea-level rise and coastal erosion caused by climate change. Therefore, before 2nd ODA to the Philippines, this study analyzed the vertical ocean model on the vertical datum in Korea and suggests the direction of development of the vertical ocean modeling system for the vertical datum in the Philippines using the observed data from the permanent tide station which was built by the Philippines ODA research project over the last four years. Moreover, as a pilot study, the Sulu Sea in the Philippines was selected and analyzed by harmonic analysis method. At each tide station, constants for correction had been computed. And the grid-based tidal model was constructed based on this study. As a result of the study, similar tidal characteristic were observed when the prediction and the measured tide were compared by applying the constants for correction between two station in the sea area with similar tidal level. These results could be used as basic data for the 2nd ODA to the Philippines, and contributed to construct and maintain a close cooperation and friendship between Korea and the Philippines.

Real-Time Forecast of Rainfall Impact on Urban Inundation (강우자료와 연계한 도시 침수지역의 사전 영향예보)

  • KEUM, Ho-Jun;KIM, Hyun-Il;HAN, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.76-92
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to establish database of rainfall inundation area by rainfall scenarios and conduct a real time prediction for urban flood mitigation. the data leaded model was developed for the mapping of inundated area with rainfall forecast data provided by korea meteorological agency. for the construction of data leaded model, 1d-2d modeling was applied to Gangnam area, where suffered from severe flooding event including september, 2010. 1d-2d analysis result agree with observed in term of flood depth. flood area and flood occurring report which maintained by NDMS(national disaster management system). The fitness ratio of the NDMS reporting point and 2D flood analysis results was revealed to be 69.5%. Flood forecast chart was created using pre-flooding database. It was analyzed to have 70.3% of fitness in case of flood forecast chart of 70mm, and 72.0% in case of 80mm flood forecast chart. Using the constructed pre-flood area database, it is possible to present flood forecast chart information with rainfall forecast, and it can be used to secure the leading time during flood predictions and warning.

The Effects of Past Success on Performance: The Mediating Role of Self-Efficacy, Burnout, and Engagement (과거성공이 성과에 미치는 영향 : 자아효능감, 소진, 몰입의 매개역할을 중심으로)

  • Im, Chang-Hee
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.49-78
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    • 2010
  • Traditionally, self-efficacy, burnout and engagement are defined as work related states of mind, and formally speaking, students are not employees. But, we assume that from a psychological perspective, student core activities can be considered work. Therefore, based on SCT(social cognitive theory), we examine the mediating role of self-efficacy in the prediction of student burnout and engagement, and also the mediation of burnout and engagement between self-efficacy and performance(GPA). There is no research to date wether there would be mediating role of these variables between past success and performance. These effects were analysed in the context of mediating role of the variables in a university in a sample of 438 students. This study utilized a convenience sample drawn from various major scholar area. Results of structural equation modeling analyses were consist with a full mediation model in which academic past success predicts self-efficacy, which in turn, predicts student burnout and engagement. Also our proposed model showed that burnout and engagement are partial or full mediating variables between self-efficacy and performance. Our study's findings provide evidence that engagement fully accounted for the relationship between self-efficacy and performance, and burnout partially explained the relationships. These findings aligns with the general theorizing supported by JD-R model and SCT(social cognitive theory). More specifically, it builds on the JD-R literature as it tests one of the proposed mechanisms in the relationship between job resources and work engagement. Implications of study are discussed, together with limitations and suggestions for future research.

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Application of Indicator Geostatistics for Probabilistic Uncertainty and Risk Analyses of Geochemical Data (지화학 자료의 확률론적 불확실성 및 위험성 분석을 위한 지시자 지구통계학의 응용)

  • Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.301-312
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    • 2010
  • Geochemical data have been regarded as one of the important environmental variables in the environmental management. Since they are often sampled at sparse locations, it is important not only to predict attribute values at unsampled locations, but also to assess the uncertainty attached to the prediction for further analysis. The main objective of this paper is to exemplify how indicator geostatistics can be effectively applied to geochemical data processing for providing decision-supporting information as well as spatial distribution of the geochemical data. A whole geostatistical analysis framework, which includes probabilistic uncertainty modeling, classification and risk analysis, was illustrated through a case study of cadmium mapping. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) was first modeled by indicator kriging, and then e-type estimates and conditional variance were computed for spatial distribution of cadmium and quantitative uncertainty measures, respectively. Two different classification criteria such as a probability thresholding and an attribute thresholding were applied to delineate contaminated and safe areas. Finally, additional sampling locations were extracted from the coefficient of variation that accounts for both the conditional variance and the difference between attribute values and thresholding values. It is suggested that the indicator geostatistical framework illustrated in this study be a useful tool for analyzing any environmental variables including geochemical data for decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.

Material Properties and Structural Characteristics on Flexure of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Ultra-High-Performance Concrete (강섬유 보강 초고성능 콘크리트의 재료특성 및 휨 거동 역학적 특성)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Chul;Yang, In-Hwan;Joh, Chang-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2016
  • This paper concerns the flexural behavior of steel fiber-reinforced ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) beams with compressive strength of 150 MPa. It presents experimental research results of hybrid steel fiber-reinforced UHPC beams with steel fiber content of 1.5% by volume and steel reinforcement ratio of less than 0.02. This study aims at investigating of compressive and tensile behavior of UHPC to perform a reasonable prediction for flexural capacity of UHPC beams. Tensile behavior modeling was performed using load-crack mouth opening displacement relationship obtained from bending test. The experimental results show that steel fiber-reinforced UHPC is in favor of cracking resistance and ductility of beams. The ductility indices range from 1.6 to 3.0, which means high ductility of hybrid steel fiber-reinforced UHPC. Test results and numerical analysis results for the moment-curvature relationship are compared. Though the numerical analysis results for the bending capacity of the UHPC beam without rebar is larger than test result, the overall comparative results show that the bending capacity of steel fiber-reinforced UHPC beams with compressive strength of 150 MPa can be predicted by using the established method in this paper.