• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction formula

검색결과 454건 처리시간 0.036초

근접 방음벽의 음향성능평가 및 삽입손실 예측을 위한 근사식의 제안 (Acoustic Performance Evaluation of Noise Barriers Installed Adjacent to Rails and Suggestion of Approximation Formula for the Prediction of Insertion Loss)

  • 윤제원;장강석;조용성
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.629-637
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문에서는 선로와 근접하여 설치하는 근접 방음벽에 관한 음향성능평가와 근접 방음벽의 삽입손실 예측을 위해 경계요소법 대신에 비교적 용이하게 사용 가능한 근사식의 제안에 관한 연구를 수행하였다. 우선, 근접 방음벽을 축척 모형으로 제작하여 무향실에서 음향성능평가를 수행하였으며, 스피커 음원 위치에 따른 총합 삽입손실을 등고선 형태로 분석하였다. 그리고, 무향실에서 수행한 축척 모형 근접 방음벽에 대한 삽입손실 측정결과를 이용하여 다양한 형상의 근접 방음벽에 대한 삽입손실 예측을 위한 근사식을 제안하였다. 또한, 무향실에서의 측정결과 및 예측결과와의 상호 비교를 통해 예측 프로그램의 타당성을 검증하였다. 마지막으로, 열차 소음원의 주파수 특성을 고려하고 높이가 1.0m, 상부 방음판의 크기가 0.5m이며 'ㄱ'자 형상을 갖는 흡음형 근접 방음벽을 철도의 건축한계선에 설치하는 경우에 대한 삽입손실 예측 및 음향성능 평가를 수행하였으며, 삽입손실 예측을 위한 근사식을 제안하였다.

ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION METHOD BY COMPARING MONTE-CARLO METHOD AND WILKS' FORMULA

  • Lee, Seung Wook;Chung, Bub Dong;Bang, Young-Seok;Bae, Sung Won
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제46권4호
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    • pp.481-488
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    • 2014
  • An analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to LBLOCA using the Monte-Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by the Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LOCA phenomena were determined based on previous PIRT results and documentation during the BEMUSE project. Calulations were conducted on 3,500 cases within a 2-week CPU time on a 14-PC cluster system. The Monte-Carlo exercise shows that the 95% upper limit PCT value can be obtained well, with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula, although we have to endure a 5% risk of PCT under-prediction. The results also show that the statistical fluctuation of the limit value using Wilks' first-order is as large as the uncertainty value itself. It is therefore desirable to increase the order of the Wilks' formula to be higher than the second-order to estimate the reliable safety margin of the design features. It is also shown that, with its ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for a nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame.

다변인회귀분석법과 Gustafson 방법에 의한 연령감정 정확도의 비교연구 (Comparative Study of Age Estimation Accuracy in Gustafsonss Method and Prediction Formula by Multiple Regression)

  • 곽경환;김종열
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 1985
  • This study comprised 157 extracted teeth, 73 of the teeth originated from mates and 84 from females, the age range was 12-79 years. The correlation coefficient of each Gustafson's criteria in relation to age was carried out. Age estimation were performed on 157 teeth according to the method by Gustafson and by use of multiple regression, as used by Johanson, after evaluating the six criteria of Gustafson by multiple regression computer analysis. Two prediction formulas and standard deviations were compared with each other. The results were as follows : 1. The author found that six Gustafson's criteria had strong correlation with age except root resorption, and correlation coefficients were r = 0.79 (Transparent dentin), r=0.72 (Secondary dentin), r 0.69 (Periodontal change), r=0.63(Attrition), r = 0.39 (Root resorption), respecti vely. 2. The age estimation formula by Gustafson's method was calculated as follows: Y 8.88 + 3.52X r =0.87, r2 = 0.76, SD = 8.18, F = 483.56, P < 0.01 The age estimation formula by multiple regression was calculated as follows: Y 8.57 + 6.37T + 6.37T + 4.63P + 2.70S + 2.40C + 3.08A + 1.34R r= 0.89, r2 = 0.78, SD = 7.82, F = 91.62, P < 0.01, Durbin-Watson Coefficient = 1.09 3. In comparison of two estimation formulas, the formula by multiple regression, the method of Johanson, was found to be slightly more reliable than Gustafson's method. Gustafson's method SD = 8.18, Multiple regression (Johanson's method) SD = 7.82 4. It was reaffirmed that Gustafson's six criteria could be a independent variable in multiple regression analysis.

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확장 유한 요소법(XFEM) J-적분을 이용한 노후 순시선의 균열 성장 수명 예측 (Prediction of Crack Growth Lives of an Aged Korean Coast Guard Patrol Ship based on Extended Finite Element Method(XFEM) J-Integral)

  • 김창식;리춘보;김영훈;정준모
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제54권4호
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    • pp.335-343
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    • 2017
  • The Newman-Raju formula and contour integral-based finite element analyses(FEAs) have been widely used to assess crack growth rates and residual lives at crack locations in ships or offshore structures, but the Newman-Raju formula is known to be less accurate for the complicated weld details and the conventional FEA-based contour integral approach needs concentrated efforts to construct FEA models. Recently, an extended finite element method(XFEM) has been proposed to reduce those modeling efforts with reliable accuracy. Stress intensity factors(SIFs) from the approaches such as the Newman-Raju formula, conventional FEA-based J-integral, and XFEM-based J-integral were compared for an infinitely long plate with a propagating elliptic crack. It was concluded that the XFEM approach was far reliable in terms of prediction ability of SIFs. Assuming a 25 year-aged coast guard patrol ship had the prescribed cracks at the bracket toes attached to longitudinal stiffeners in way of deck and bottom, SIFs were derived based on the three approaches. To obtain axial tension loads acting on the longitudinal stiffeners, long term hull girder bending moments were assumed to obey Weibull distribution of which two parameters were decided from a reference (DNV, 2014). For the complicated weld details, it was concluded that the XFEM approach could cost-effectively and accurately estimate the crack growth rates and residual lives of ship structures.

Bayesian Typhoon Track Prediction Using Wind Vector Data

  • Han, Minkyu;Lee, Jaeyong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.241-253
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    • 2015
  • In this paper we predict the track of typhoons using a Bayesian principal component regression model based on wind field data. Data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Based on regression model, we applied to variable selection prior and two kinds of prior distribution; normal and Laplace distribution. We show prediction results based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and Median Probability Model (MPM) estimator. We analysis 8 typhoons in 2006 using data obtained from previous 6 years (2000-2005). We compare our prediction results with a moving-nest typhoon model (MTM) proposed by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We posit that is possible to predict the track of a typhoon accurately using only a statistical model and without a dynamical model.

발전소 환경소음 예측 (Environmental Noise Prediction of Power Plants)

  • 조대승;유병호
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 1997년도 춘계학술대회논문집; 경주코오롱호텔; 22-23 May 1997
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    • pp.452-459
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    • 1997
  • For computer aided design and construction of low noisy power plants, indoor and outdoor noise prediction program has been developed. The program utilizes the predefined data of noise sources and building materials and has the faculty to estimate the source level using the empirical formula in case of the measured data not being available. In the noise prediction, the mutual noise propagation between indoor and outdoor sites are considered. The outdoor noise source in the calculation of geometric divergence effects is modelled as the omni-directional finite line or planar source according to the source geometry and the receiving points. Outdoor noise prediction is carried out to consider the diffraction effect due to plant structures as well as the attenuation effect due to atmospheric absorption and soft ground. The results of indoor and outdoor noise prediction for a recently constructed diesel engine power plant show good agreement with the measured.

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항공기 외부소음 예측기법의 개발 (Development of the prediction method of aircraft exterior noise)

  • 심인보;이덕주
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.78-83
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    • 2000
  • Exterior noise generated by the aircraft induces a serious noise pollution near the airport. For the prediction of an exterior noise radiation of aircraft an empirical formula is employed to model the acoustic sources. It is shown that the fan/compressor noise is the most dominant part of the acoustic sources in all cases.

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스트럿-타이 모델에 의한 개구부를 갖는 깊은 보의 극한강도 예측 (Prediction of Ultimate Strength of Concrete Deep Beams with an Opening Using Strut-and-Tie Model)

  • 지호석;송하원;변근주
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2001년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.189-194
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    • 2001
  • In this study, ultimate strength of concrete deep beams with an opening is predicted by using Strut-and-Tie Model with a new effective compressive strength. First crack occurs around an opening by stress concentration due to geometric discontinuity. This results in decreasing ultimate strength of deep beams with an opening compared with general deep beams. With fundamental notion that ultimate strength of deep beam with an opening decreases as a result of reduction in effective compressive strength of a concrete strut, an equivalent effective compressive strength formula is proposed in order to reflect ultimate strength reduction due to an opening located in a concrete strut. An equivalent effective compressive strength formula which can reflect opening size and position is added to a testified algorithm of predicting ultimate strength of concrete deep beams. Therefore, ultimate strength of concrete deep beam with an opening is predicted by using a simple and rational STM algorithm including an equivalent effective compressive strength formula, not by finite element analysis or a former complex Strut-and-Tie Model

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말뚝의 동적(動的) 지지력(支持力) 공식(公式)의 통계적(統計的) 분석(分析) -새로운 공식(公式)의 평가(評價)를 위하여- (A Statistical Analysis on Dynamic Pile-Driving Formulas -For Evaluation of the New Formula-)

  • 황정규
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제3권4호
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 1983
  • 말뚝의 동적(動的) 지지력(支持力)을 더욱 정확(正確)하게 추정(推定)하기 위하여 파동이론(波動理論)과 잔류응력(殘留應力)을 고려(考慮)하여 유도(誘導)된 필자(筆者)의 새로운 공식(公式)을 말뚝의 재하시험자료(載荷試驗資料)를 이용(利用)하여 통계적(統計的) 분석(分析) 방법(方法)으로 다른 대표적(代表的) 공식(公式)과 비교(比較)하여 평가(評價)하였다. 그 결과(結果), 새로운 공식(公式)은 그 안전율(安全率)이 3 이하(以下)이며, 비교적(比較的) 정확도(精確度)가 높은 것으로 평가(評價)되었다.

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부분 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 슬래브의 휨 균열 거동에 관한 실험적 연구 (An Experimental Study on the Flexural Cracking Behavior of Partially Prestressed Concrete Slabs)

  • 박홍용;연준희;최익창
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 1990년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 1990
  • This paper contains experimental studies on the flexural cracking behabior of PPC one-way slabs. Three post tensioned bonded PPC slabs with the same prestressing ratio and ultimate moment strength were tested. Based upon test results, this paper also presents the crack width prediction formula PPC slab. According to the crack theory developed mainly in Europe, crack width formula is given as the product of crack spacing and mean steel strain after decompression. Aaaaverage crack spacing formula is composed of many factors mainly such as concrete cover, concrete effective area in tension, sum of reinforcing bars perimeters and mixed reinforcements. In particular, it is very important to specify the bond characteristics of mixed reinforcements, since bond characteristics of PC bars are different from those of non-tensioned deformed bars. For this reason, a reduced bond coefficients for PS bars is employed in this study.

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