• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.83-95
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• 2017

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop a regression model to predict the International Roughness Index(IRI) and Surface Distress(SD) for the estimation of HPCI using Expressway Pavement Management System(PMS). METHODS : To develop an HPCI prediction model, prediction models of IRI and SD were developed in advance. The independent variables considered in the models were pavement age, Annual Average Daily Traffic Volume(AADT), the amount of deicing salt used, the severity of Alkali Silica Reaction(ASR), average temperature, annual temperature difference, number of days of precipitation, number of days of snowfall, number of days below zero temperature, and so on. RESULTS : The present IRI, age, AADT, annual temperature differential, number of days of precipitation and ASR severity were chosen as independent variables for the IRI prediction model. In addition, the present IRI, present SD, amount of deicing chemical used, and annual temperature differential were chosen as independent variables for the SD prediction model. CONCLUSIONS : The models for predicting IRI and SD were developed. The predicted HPCI can be calculated from the HPCI equation using the predicted IRI and SD.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.314-320
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• 2008

During the summer season, more than half of the annual precipitation in Korea occurs during the summer season due to the geographical location in the Asian monsoon belt. So, this causes severe soil erosion from croplands, which is directly linked to the deterioration of crop/land productivity and surface water quality. Therefore, much attention has been given to develop accurate estimation tools of soil erosion. The aim of this study is to assess the performance of using the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the physical-based model of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) to quantify eroded amount of soil from agricultural fields. Input data files, including climate, soil, slope, and cropping management, were modified to fit into Korean conditions. Chuncheon (forest) and Jeonju (level-plain) were selected as two Korean cities with different topographic characteristics for model analysis. The results of this current study indicated that better soil erosion prediction can be achieved using the WEPP model since it has better power to illustrate a higher degree of spatial variability than USLE in topography, precipitation, soils, and crop management practices. These present findings are expected to contribute to the development of the environmental assessment program as well as the conservation of the agricultural environment in Korea.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2024

Predicting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge due to the complexity of the disease and its evolving nature. This study presents an integrated approach using the classic SIR model for infectious diseases, enhanced by the chemical master equation (CME). We employ a Monte Carlo method (SSA) to solve the model, revealing unique aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. The study, a first of its kind in Korea, adopts a step-by-step and complementary approach to model prediction. It starts by analyzing the epidemic's trajectory at local government levels using both basic and stochastic SIR models. These models capture the impact of public health policies on the epidemic's dynamics. Further, the study extends its scope from a single-infected individual model to a more comprehensive model that accounts for multiple infections using the jump SIR prediction model. The practical application of this approach involves applying these layered and complementary SIR models to forecast the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in small to medium-sized local governments, particularly in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. The results from these models are then compared and analyzed.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.103-111
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• 2017

Purpose: Accelerated degradation tests can speed time to market and reduce the test time and costs associated with long term reliability tests to verify the required service life of a product or material. This paper proposes a service life prediction method for components or materials using an accelerated degradation tests based on the relationships between temperature and the rate of failure-causing chemical reaction. Methods: The relationship between performance degradation and the rate of a failure-causing chemical reaction is assumed and least square estimation is used to estimate model parameters from the degradation model. Results: Methods of obtaining acceleration factors and predicting service life using the degradation model are presented and a numerical example is provided. Conclusion: Service life prediction of a component or material is possible at an early stage of the degradation test by using the proposed method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.201-221
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• 2015

The fatigue damage problems are frequently encountered in the design of civil engineering structures. A realistic and accurate fatigue life prediction is quite essential to ensure the safety of engineering design. However, constructing a reliable fatigue life prediction model can be quite challenging. The use of traditional deterministic approach in predicting the fatigue life is sometimes too dangerous in the real practical designs as the method itself contains a wide range of uncertain factors. In this paper, a new fatigue life prediction method is going to be proposed where the residual strength is been utilized. Several cumulative damage models, capable of predicting the fatigue life of a structural element, are considered. Based on Miner's rule, a randomized approach is developed from a deterministic equation. The residual strength is used in a one to one transformation methodology which is used for the derivation of the fatigue life. To arrive at more robust results, fuzzy sets are introduced to model the parameter uncertainties. This leads to a convoluted fuzzy based fatigue life prediction model. The developed model is illustrated in an example analysis. The calculated results are compared with real experimental data. The applicability of this approach for a required reliability level is also discussed.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.57-63
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• 2008

본 연구는 원자력발전소에 설치되는 캐비닛형 전기기기의 동적 진동시험 자료를 이용하여 캐비닛의 지진응답을 예측할 수 있는 기법을 제안하였다. 제안된 기법은 1) 절점질량 이상화 모델에 기반한 등가 지진하중 산정, 2) 진동시험자료에 기반한 캐비닛 구조의 입출력 상태방정식 규명, 3) 산정된 등가지진하중과 규명된 입출력 상태방정식을 사용한 지진응답산정의 과정으로 구성된다. 제안된 기법은 유한요소기법(FEM) 모델 개선(Model Updating)에 기반한 지진응답예측기법에 비하여 모델링 오차가 개입 되지 않는 장점을 가진다. 캐비넷 구조를 이상화한 2차원 프레임 모델과 3차원 상세 모델에 대한 수치검증을 통하여 제안된 기법이 지진응답을 매우 정확하게 예측을 함을 관찰하였고, 측정 노이즈에 대해서도 강인함을 관찰하였다. 추후연구로 실험검증이 요구된다.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.163-172
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• 2007

Phenomenon, such as hardening, cracking or breaking etc.. of PVC tape for wiring harness by aging were detected on driven automobile in field. Hardening or cracking of PVC tape were confirmed decline of elongation by surrounding stress. The accelerated heat aging test was carried out applying temperature most important factor of aging, and then deduced an equation of useful life using arrhenius model. Prediction method of useful life of PVC tape was developed using miner rule calculating damage value by thermal energy classified temperature by matching deduced equation of useful life and measured temperature value on driven automobile in field.

• International Journal of Safety
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.34-38
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• 2003

The lower and upper flash points of the flammable binary system, butylacetate+2-propanol were measured by air blowing tester. The shape of the concentration-temperature region of flash depended on the components of the mixture in solution. The experimental data were compared with the values calculated by the reduced model under an ideal solution assumption and the flash point-prediction models based on Van Laar equation. Good qualitative agreement was obtained with these models. The prediction results of these models can thus be applied to incorporate inherently safer design for chemical process, such as the determination of the safe storage conditions for flammable solutions.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.183-193
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• 1994

본 논문에서는 가정모드(assumed mode) 방법과 Lagrange 방식을 이용하여 유연성 로봇 매니퓰레이터의 동력학 방정식을 구하였으며, 조인트 구동기를 포함한 유연성 로봇 매니플레이터에 대한 제어기를 설계를 하였다. 제어기는 매개변수 추정부와 적응제어기로 구성하였으며, 매개변수 추정부는 RLS알고리즘을 이용하여 ARMA예측모델의 매개변수를 추정하도록 하였다. 적응제어기는 기준모델(reference)과 최소예측오차제어기(minimum prediction controller)로 구성하였다.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.97-105
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• 2001

The ultrasonic pulse velocity test has a strong potential to be developed into a very useful and relatively inexpensive in-place test for assuring the quality of concrete placed in structure. The main problem in realizing this potential is that the relationship between compressive strength ad ultrasonic pulse velocity is uncertain and concrete is an inherently variable material. The objective of this study is to improve the reliability of in-place concrete strength predictions by ultrasonic pulse velocity method. Experimental cement content, s/a rate, and curing condition of concrete. Accuracy of the prediction expressed in empirical formula are examined by multiple regression analysis and linear regression analysis and practical equation for estimation the concrete strength are proposed. Multiple regression model uses water-cement ratio cement content s/a rate, and pulse velocity as dependent variables and the compressive strength as an independent variable. Also linear regression model is used to only pulse velocity as dependent variables. Comparing the results of the analysis the proposed equation expressed highest reliability than other previous proposed equations.