• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Process Prediction Process

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Pre-Evaluation for Prediction Accuracy by Using the Customer's Ratings in Collaborative Filtering (협업필터링에서 고객의 평가치를 이용한 선호도 예측의 사전평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seok-Jun;Kim, Sun-Ok
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.187-206
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    • 2007
  • The development of computer and information technology has been combined with the information superhighway internet infrastructure, so information widely spreads not only in special fields but also in the daily lives of people. Information ubiquity influences the traditional way of transaction, and leads a new E-commerce which distinguishes from the existing E-commerce. Not only goods as physical but also service as non-physical come into E-commerce. As the scale of E-Commerce is being enlarged as well. It keeps people from finding information they want. Recommender systems are now becoming the main tools for E-Commerce to mitigate the information overload. Recommender systems can be defined as systems for suggesting some Items(goods or service) considering customers' interests or tastes. They are being used by E-commerce web sites to suggest products to their customers who want to find something for them and to provide them with information to help them decide which to purchase. There are several approaches of recommending goods to customer in recommender system but in this study, the main subject is focused on collaborative filtering technique. This study presents a possibility of pre-evaluation for the prediction performance of customer's preference in collaborative filtering before the process of customer's preference prediction. Pre-evaluation for the prediction performance of each customer having low performance is classified by using the statistical features of ratings rated by each customer is conducted before the prediction process. In this study, MovieLens 100K dataset is used to analyze the accuracy of classification. The classification criteria are set by using the training sets divided 80% from the 100K dataset. In the process of classification, the customers are divided into two groups, classified group and non classified group. To compare the prediction performance of classified group and non classified group, the prediction process runs the 20% test set through the Neighborhood Based Collaborative Filtering Algorithm and Correspondence Mean Algorithm. The prediction errors from those prediction algorithm are allocated to each customer and compared with each user's error. Research hypothesis : Two research hypotheses are formulated in this study to test the accuracy of the classification criterion as follows. Hypothesis 1: The estimation accuracy of groups classified according to the standard deviation of each user's ratings has significant difference. To test the Hypothesis 1, the standard deviation is calculated for each user in training set which is divided 80% from MovieLens 100K dataset. Four groups are classified according to the quartile of the each user's standard deviations. It is compared to test the estimation errors of each group which results from test set are significantly different. Hypothesis 2: The estimation accuracy of groups that are classified according to the distribution of each user's ratings have significant differences. To test the Hypothesis 2, the distributions of each user's ratings are compared with the distribution of ratings of all customers in training set which is divided 80% from MovieLens 100K dataset. It assumes that the customers whose ratings' distribution are different from that of all customers would have low performance, so six types of different distributions are set to be compared. The test groups are classified into fit group or non-fit group according to the each type of different distribution assumed. The degrees in accordance with each type of distribution and each customer's distributions are tested by the test of ${\chi}^2$ goodness-of-fit and classified two groups for testing the difference of the mean of errors. Also, the degree of goodness-of-fit with the distribution of each user's ratings and the average distribution of the ratings in the training set are closely related to the prediction errors from those prediction algorithms. Through this study, the customers who have lower performance of prediction than the rest in the system are classified by those two criteria, which are set by statistical features of customers ratings in the training set, before the prediction process.

The study of Estimation model for the short-term travel time prediction (단기 통행시간예측 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • LEE Seung-jae;KIM Beom-il;Kwon Hyug
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.3 no.1 s.4
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2004
  • The study of Estimation model for the short-term travel time prediction. There is a different solution which has predicted the link travel time to solve this problem. By using this solution, the link travel time is predicted based on link conditions from time to time. The predicated link travel time is used to search the shortest path. Before providing a dynamic shortest path finding, the prediction model should be verified. To verify the prediction model, three models such as Kalman filtering, Stochastic Process, ARIMA. The ARIMA model should adjust optimal parameters according to the traffic conditions. It requires a frequent adjustment process of finding optimal parameters. As a result of these characteristics, It is difficult to use the ARIMA model as a prediction. Kalman Filtering model has a distinguished prediction capability. It is due to the modification of travel time predictive errors in the gaining matrix. As a result of these characteristics, the Kalman Filtering model is likely to have a non-accumulative errors in prediction. Stochastic Process model uses the historical patterns of travel time conditions on links. It if favorably comparable with the other models in the sense of the recurrent travel time condition prediction. As a result, for the travel time estimation, Kalman filtering model is the better estimation model for the short-term estimation, stochastic process is the better for the long-term estimation.

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A Study on the Use of Machine Learning Models in Bridge on Slab Thickness Prediction (머신러닝 기법을 활용한 교량데이터 설계 시 슬래브두께 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Chul-Seung Hong;Hyo-Kwan Kim;Se-Hee Lee
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.325-330
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes to apply machine learning to the process of predicting the slab thickness based on the structural analysis results or experience and subjectivity of engineers in the design of bridge data construction to enable digital-based decision-making. This study aims to build a reliable design environment by utilizing machine learning techniques to provide guide values to engineers in addition to structural analysis for slab thickness selection. Based on girder bridges, which account for the largest proportion of bridge data, a prediction model process for predicting slab thickness among superstructures was defined. Various machine learning models (Linear Regress, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Muliti-layer Perceptron) were competed for each process to produce the prediction value for each process, and the optimal model was derived. Through this study, the applicability of machine learning techniques was confirmed in areas where slab thickness was predicted only through existing structural analysis, and an accuracy of 95.4% was also obtained. models can be utilized in a more reliable construction environment if the accuracy of the prediction model is improved by expanding the process

An AutoML-driven Antenna Performance Prediction Model in the Autonomous Driving Radar Manufacturing Process

  • So-Hyang Bak;Kwanghoon Pio Kim
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.3330-3344
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes an antenna performance prediction model in the autonomous driving radar manufacturing process. Our research work is based upon a challenge dataset, Driving Radar Manufacturing Process Dataset, and a typical AutoML machine learning workflow engine, Pycaret open-source Python library. Note that the dataset contains the total 70 data-items, out of which 54 used as input features and 16 used as output features, and the dataset is properly built into resolving the multi-output regression problem. During the data regression analysis and preprocessing phase, we identified several input features having similar correlations and so detached some of those input features, which may become a serious cause of the multicollinearity problem that affect the overall model performance. In the training phase, we train each of output-feature regression models by using the AutoML approach. Next, we selected the top 5 models showing the higher performances in the AutoML result reports and applied the ensemble method so as for the selected models' performances to be improved. In performing the experimental performance evaluation of the regression prediction model, we particularly used two metrics, MAE and RMSE, and the results of which were 0.6928 and 1.2065, respectively. Additionally, we carried out a series of experiments to verify the proposed model's performance by comparing with other existing models' performances. In conclusion, we enhance accuracy for safer autonomous vehicles, reduces manufacturing costs through AutoML-Pycaret and machine learning ensembled model, and prevents the production of faulty radar systems, conserving resources. Ultimately, the proposed model holds significant promise not only for antenna performance but also for improving manufacturing quality and advancing radar systems in autonomous vehicles.

Smart Control System Using Fuzzy and Neural Network Prediction System

  • Kim, Tae Yeun;Bae, Sang Hyun
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, a prediction system is proposed to control the brightness of smart street lamps by predicting the moving path through the reduction of consumption power and information of pedestrian's past moving direction while meeting the function of existing smart street lamps. The brightness of smart street lamps is adjusted by utilizing the walk tracking vector and soft hand-off characteristics obtained through the motion sensing sensor of smart street lamps. In addition, the motion vector is used to analyze and predict the pedestrian path, and the GPU is used for high-speed computation. Pedestrians were detected using adaptive Gaussian mixing, weighted difference imaging, and motion vectors, and motions of pedestrians were analyzed using the extracted motion vectors. The preprocessing process using linear interpolation is performed to improve the performance of the proposed prediction system. Fuzzy prediction system and neural network prediction system are designed in parallel to improve efficiency and rough set is used for error correction.

Development of the Drop-outs Prediction Model for Intelligent Drop-outs Prevention System

  • Song, Mi-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2017
  • The student dropout prediction is an indispensable for many intelligent systems to measure the educational system and success rate of all university. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an intelligent dropout prediction system that minimizes the situation by adopting the proactive process through an effective model that predicts the students who are at risk of dropout. In this paper, the main data sets for students dropout predictions was used as questionnaires and university information. The questionnaire was constructed based on theoretical and empirical grounds about factor affecting student's performance and causes of dropout. University Information included student grade, interviews, attendance in university life. Through these data sets, the proposed dropout prediction model techniques was classified into the risk group and the normal group using statistical methods and Naive Bays algorithm. And the intelligence dropout prediction system was constructed by applying the proposed dropout prediction model. We expect the proposed study would be used effectively to reduce the students dropout in university.

Survey on Nucleotide Encoding Techniques and SVM Kernel Design for Human Splice Site Prediction

  • Bari, A.T.M. Golam;Reaz, Mst. Rokeya;Choi, Ho-Jin;Jeong, Byeong-Soo
    • Interdisciplinary Bio Central
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.14.1-14.6
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    • 2012
  • Splice site prediction in DNA sequence is a basic search problem for finding exon/intron and intron/exon boundaries. Removing introns and then joining the exons together forms the mRNA sequence. These sequences are the input of the translation process. It is a necessary step in the central dogma of molecular biology. The main task of splice site prediction is to find out the exact GT and AG ended sequences. Then it identifies the true and false GT and AG ended sequences among those candidate sequences. In this paper, we survey research works on splice site prediction based on support vector machine (SVM). The basic difference between these research works is nucleotide encoding technique and SVM kernel selection. Some methods encode the DNA sequence in a sparse way whereas others encode in a probabilistic manner. The encoded sequences serve as input of SVM. The task of SVM is to classify them using its learning model. The accuracy of classification largely depends on the proper kernel selection for sequence data as well as a selection of kernel parameter. We observe each encoding technique and classify them according to their similarity. Then we discuss about kernel and their parameter selection. Our survey paper provides a basic understanding of encoding approaches and proper kernel selection of SVM for splice site prediction.

A Study on the Prediction of Outflow of Groundwater in Tunnel Construction Areas (터널 굴착시 발생하는 지하수의 유출량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sun Hwan;Chang, Yoon Young;Kang, Hyung Sik;Choi, Joon Gyu;Yang, Keun Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.407-419
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    • 2007
  • This study investigated the predicted and abserved outflow of groundwater which occurred during tunnel constructions. Among the 586 road construction projects from 1986 to 2006, 4 route 25 tunnel construction areas and 26 waste water treatment facilities under construction were studied. Most of the tunnel outflow prediction in EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) process have been classified into the 17 types of units depending on the assessor's options, which have not conformed to the request of the residents and non government organizations. The investigation results showed that the outflow of underground water in tunnel construction areas averaged about $0.133m^3/km{\cdot}min$ with the maximum $0.386m^3/km{\cdot}min$, and that the outflow mostly occurred in the early stage of tunnel excavation and diminished gradually. The prediction of outflow of underground water in the EIA process showed excessive results compared to observed outflow, the even 51.7 times. Consequently for more realistic prediction, current EIA method for prediction of outflow of underground water in tunnel construction areas has to adopt numerical methods coupled with hydraulics and geologic informations from unit methods of present time.

Research on Fafigue Life Prediction of Muffler with Weld-zone Shape (용접부 형상을 고려한 머플러의 피로수명 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Yun;Kang, Sung-Su;Kim, Gug-Yong;Park, Soon-Cheol;Kim, Chung-Kwan
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the geometry of the weld is used to develop the process of fatigue life prediction. For the development of fatigue life prediction process, bending fatigue test of muffler is conducted to obtain M(Moment)-N(Fatigue life) diagram. Modeling the geometry of the weld which is failed is performed to conduct static load analysis and analysis results are used to calculate the stress concentration factor. The stress concentration factor is used to get the fatigue notch factor and this was based on the fatigue life prediction. As a result of the comparison of test values and predicted values, predicted values are verified.

An Overview of Flutter Prediction in Tests Based on Stability Criteria in Discrete-Time Domain

  • Matsuzaki, Yuji
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.305-317
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents an overview on flutter boundary prediction in tests which is principally based on a system stability measure, named Jury's stability criterion, defined in the discrete-time domain, accompanied with the use of autoregressive moving-average (AR-MA) representation of a sampled sequence of wing responses excited by continuous air turbulences. Stability parameters applicable to two-, three- and multi-mode systems, that is, the flutter margin for discrete-time systems derived from Jury's criterion are also described. Actual applications of these measures to flutter tests performed in subsonic, transonic and supersonic wind tunnels, not only stationary flutter tests but also a nonstationary one in which the dynamic pressure increased in a fixed rate, are presented. An extension of the concept of nonstationary process approach to an analysis of flutter prediction of a morphing wing for which the instability takes place during the process of structural morphing will also be mentioned. Another extension of analytical approach to a multi-mode aeroelastic system is presented, too. Comparisons between the prediction based on the digital techniques mentioned above and the traditional damping method are given. A future possible application of the system stability approach to flight test will be finally discussed.