• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Process Prediction Process

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GOCI-II Capability of Improving the Accuracy of Ocean Color Products through Fusion with GK-2A/AMI (GK-2A/AMI와 융합을 통한 GOCI-II 해색 산출물 정확도 개선 가능성)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Sang;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Park, Myung-Sook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_2
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    • pp.1295-1305
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    • 2021
  • Satellite-derived ocean color products are required to effectively monitor clear open ocean and coastal water regions for various research fields. For this purpose, accurate correction of atmospheric effect is essential. Currently, the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI)-II ground segment uses the reanalysis of meteorological fields such as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) or National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to correct gas absorption by water vapor and ozone. In this process, uncertainties may occur due to the low spatiotemporal resolution of the meteorological data. In this study, we develop water vapor absorption correction model for the GK-2 combined GOCI-II atmospheric correction using Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) total precipitable water (TPW) information through radiative transfer model simulations. Also, we investigate the impact of the developed model on GOCI products. Overall, the errors with and without water vapor absorption correction in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance at 620 nm and 680 nm are only 1.3% and 0.27%, indicating that there is no significant effect by the water vapor absorption model. However, the GK-2A combined water vapor absorption model has the large impacts at the 709 nm channel, as revealing error of 6 to 15% depending on the solar zenith angle and the TPW. We also found more significant impacts of the GK-2 combined water vapor absorption model on Rayleigh-corrected reflectance at all GOCI-II spectral bands. The errors generated from the TOA reflectance is greatly amplified, showing a large error of 1.46~4.98, 7.53~19.53, 0.25~0.64, 14.74~40.5, 8.2~18.56, 5.7~11.9% for from 620 nm to 865 nm, repectively, depending on the SZA. This study emphasizes the water vapor correction model can affect the accuracy and stability of ocean color products, and implies that the accuracy of GOCI-II ocean color products can be improved through fusion with GK-2A/AMI.

Development of a Retrieval Algorithm for Adjustment of Satellite-viewed Cloudiness (위성관측운량 보정을 위한 알고리즘의 개발)

  • Son, Jiyoung;Lee, Yoon-Kyoung;Choi, Yong-Sang;Ok, Jung;Kim, Hye-Sil
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.415-431
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    • 2019
  • The satellite-viewed cloudiness, a ratio of cloudy pixels to total pixels ($C_{sat,\;prev}$), inevitably differs from the "ground-viewed" cloudiness ($C_{grd}$) due to different viewpoints. Here we develop an algorithm to retrieve the satellite-viewed, but adjusted cloudiness to $C_{grd} (C_{sat,\;adj})$. The key process of the algorithm is to convert the cloudiness projected on the plane surface into the cloudiness on the celestial hemisphere from the observer. For this conversion, the supplementary satellite retrievals such as cloud detection and cloud top pressure are used as they provide locations of cloudy pixels and cloud base height information, respectively. The algorithm is tested for Himawari-8 level 1B data. The $C_{sat,\;adj}$ and $C_{sat,\;prev}$ are retrieved and validated with $C_{grd}$ of SYNOP station over Korea (22 stations) and China (724 stations) during only daytime for the first seven days of every month from July 2016 to June 2017. As results, the mean error of $C_{sat,\;adj}$ (0.61) is less that than that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ (1.01). The percent of detection for 'Cloudy' scenario of $C_{sat,\;adj}$ (73%) is higher than that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ (60%) The percent of correction, the accuracy, of $C_{sat,\;adj}$ is 61%, while that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ is 55% for all seasons. For the December-January-February period when cloudy pixels are readily overestimated, the proportion of correction of $C_{sat,\;adj$ is 60%, while that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ is 56%. Therefore, we conclude that the present algorithm can effectively get the satellite cloudiness near to the ground-viewed cloudiness.

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation over CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Domain using Regional Climate Model HadGEM3-RA (HadGEM3-RA 지역기후모델을 이용한 CORDEX 동아시아 2단계 지역의 기온과 강수 모의 평가)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.367-385
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    • 2022
  • This study evaluates the temperature and precipitation results in East Asia simulated from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) developed by the UK Met Office. The HadGEM3-RA is conducted in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase II domain for 15 year (2000-2014). The spatial distribution of rainbands produced from the HadGEM3-RA by the summer monsoon is in good agreement with the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APRODITE) data over the East Asia. But, precipitation amount is overestimated in Southeast Asia and underestimated over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the simulated summer rainfall and APRODITE data show the least correlation coefficient and the maximum value of root mean square error in South Korea. Prediction of temperature in Southeast Asia shows underestimation with a maximum error during winter season, while it appears the largest underestimation in South Korea during spring season. In order to evaluate local predictability, the time series of temperature and precipitation compared to the ASOS data of the Seoul Meteorological Station is similar to the spatial average verification results in which the summer precipitation and winter temperature underestimate. Especially, the underestimation of the rainfall increases when the amounts of precipitation increase in summer. The winter temperature tends to underestimate at low temperature, while it overestimates at high temperature. The results of the extreme climate index comparison show that heat wave is overestimated and heavy rainfall is underestimated. The HadGEM3-RA simulated with a horizontal resolution of 25 km shows limitations in the prediction of mesoscale convective system and topographic precipitation. This study indicates that improvement of initial data, horizontal resolution, and physical process are necessary to improve predictability of regional climate model.

A Study of the Influence of Online Word-of-Mouth on the Customer Purchase Intention (온라인 구전정보가 소비자 구매의도에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증연구: 제품관여도, 조절초점, 자기효능감의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Yoo, Chang Jo;Ahn, Kwang Ho;Park, Sung Whi
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.209-231
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    • 2011
  • Internet is having strong impact on the consumer's decision making process. Information search has been done actively through internet today. The online reviews can be crucial information cue to evaluate the alternarive products. The online WOM(Word-Of-Mouth) effect depends on the characteristics of information sender, receiver, and WOM. This study is to examine the influence of the online word of mouth on the consumer purchase intention and the moderating role of product involvement, consumer regulatory focus and self-efficacy. Positive customer reviews on the products influence the purchase intention positively and negative customer reviews influence it negatively. Moderating role of involvement in the causal relation between the valence of online reviews and purchase intention is tested. In case of positive WOM, it is predicted that purchase intention for high involvement products is higher than that of low involvement. In case of negative WOM, purchase intention for high involvement product is lower than that of low involvement product. And this study invetigate the moderating role of regulatory focus. In case of positive WOM, it is predicted that promotion focus oriented consumers have higher purchase intention than prevention focus oriented consumers. In case of negative WOM, prediction is that prevention focus oriented consumers have lower purchase intention than promotion focus oriented consumers. Then we examine the moderating role of self efficacy in the causal relation between the valence of online reviews and purchase intention. In case of positive WOM, it is predicted that consumers with low self efficacy have higher purchase intention than consumers with high self efficacy. In case of negative WOM, it is predicted that consumers with low self efficacy have lower purchase intention than consumers with high self efficacy. Emprical results support our prediction and four hypotheses derived from our conceptual framework are all accepted. This study suggest that the level of product involvement, consumer regulatory focus and the level of self-efficacy influence the consumer responses of the valence of online reviews. Therefore marketers need to manage online reviews based on the level of product involvement, regulatory focus orientation and the level of self-efficacy of target consumers.

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Future Changes in Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래 전지구 육상탄소순환 변화 전망)

  • Lee, Cheol;Boo, Kyung-On;Hong, Jinkyu;Seong, Hyunmin;Heo, Tae-kyung;Seol, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Johan;Cho, ChunHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.303-315
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    • 2014
  • Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important for better prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigated by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) that considers vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation for future projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to 2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystem exchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitude in each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmospheric $CO_2$. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At the end of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respiration increase in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement of land $CO_2$ uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onset of growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase of soil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fall since that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia ($90^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$) area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-$21^{st}$ the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are $-2.09PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.47PgC\;yr^{-1}$ and zonal mean NEEs of the same latitude region are $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.55PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.17PgC\;yr^{-1}$ for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.

Designing a Writing Support System Based on Narrative Comprehension of Readers (독자의 내러티브 이해를 반영한 창작 지원 시스템 설계)

  • Kwon, Hochang;Kwon, Hyuk Tae;Yoon, Wan Chul
    • Journal of the HCI Society of Korea
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2014
  • A variety of writing support systems focus on the information management or the feature analysis of the commercially successful narrative texts. In these approaches, the reader's role in the narrative creating process is overlooked. During a writing work, an author anticipates the reader's response or expectation to the narrative and he/she organizes the narrative either along or against the prediction about readers. Assessing and controlling the reader's comprehension in the development of events influences the aesthetic quality of the narrative. In this paper, we suggest a writing support system to visualize and adjust the characteristics of a narrative text related to the reader's comprehension, which is theoretically based on the narrative structure model and the event-indexing situation model. Under the development of the support system, we designed an interactive framework to create events as the basic units of story and arrange them onto both story- and discourse-time axes. Using this framework, we analyzed the organization of events about an actual film narrative. We also proposed both the continuity of the situational dimensions and the cognitive complexity as the characteristics to affect the reader's comprehension, hence we devised a method to visualize and evaluate them. This method was applied to the actual film narrative and the result was discussed in the aspect of the features of the narrative and wiring support strategies.

Efficient Structral Safety Monitoring of Large Structures Using Substructural Identification (부분구조추정법을 이용한 대형구조물의 효율적인 구조안전도 모니터링)

  • 윤정방;이형진
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents substructural identification methods for the assessment of local damages in complex and large structural systems. For this purpose, an auto-regressive and moving average with stochastic input (ARMAX) model is derived for a substructure to process the measurement data impaired by noises. Using the substructural methods, the number of unknown parameters for each identification can be significantly reduced, hence the convergence and accuracy of estimation can be improved. Secondly, the damage index is defined as the ratio of the current stiffness to the baseline value at each element for the damage assessment. The indirect estimation method was performed using the estimated results from the identification of the system matrices from the substructural identification. To demonstrate the proposed techniques, several simulation and experimental example analyses are carried out for structural models of a 2-span truss structure, a 3-span continuous beam model and 3-story building model. The results indicate that the present substructural identification method and damage estimation methods are effective and efficient for local damage estimation of complex structures.

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Developing a Neural-Based Credit Evaluation System with Noisy Data (불량 데이타를 포함한 신경망 신용 평가 시스템의 개발)

  • Kim, Jeong-Won;Choi, Jong-Uk;Choi, Hong-Yun;Chuong, Yoon
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 1994
  • Many research result conducted by neural network researchers claimed that the degree of generalization of the neural network system is higher or at least equal to that of statistical methods. However, those successful results could be brought only if the neural network was trained by appropriately sound data, having a little of noisy data and being large enough to control noisy data. Real data used in a lot of fields, especially business fields, were not so sound that the network have frequently failed to obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy, the degree of generalization. Enhancing the degree of generalization with noisy data is discussed in this study. The suggestion, which was obtained through a series of experiments, to enhance the degree of generalization is to remove inconsistent data by checking overlapping and inconsistencies. Furthermore, the previous conclusion by other reports is also confirmed that the learning mechanism of neural network takes average value of two inconsistent data included in training set[2]. The interim results of on-going research project are reported in this paper These are ann architecture of the neural network adopted in this project and the whole idea of developing on-line credit evaluation system,being intergration of the expert(resoning)system and the neural network(learning system.Another definite result is corroborated through this study that quickprop,being agopted as a learing algorithm, also has more speedy learning process than does back propagation even in very noisy environment.

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Quantitative Approach of Soil Prediction using Environment Factors in Jeju Island (환경요인을 이용한 제주도 토양예측의 정량적 연구)

  • Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Seo, Hyeong-Ho;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Song, Kwan-Chul;Hyun, Hae-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.360-369
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    • 2012
  • Parent material, climate, topography, biological factors, and time are considered five soil forming factors. This study was conducted to elucidate the effects of several environment factors on soil distribution using quantitative analysis method, called soil series estimation algorithm in the soils of Jeju Island. We selected environment factors including mean temperature, annual precipitation, surface geology, altitude, slope, aspect, altitude difference within 1 $km^2$ area, topographic wetness index, distance from the shore, distance from the mountain peak, and landuse for a quantitative analysis. We analyzed the ranges of environment factors for each soil series and calculated probabilities of possible-soil series for certain locations using estimation algorithm. The algorithm can predicted exact soil series on the soil map with correctness of 33% on $1^{st}$ ranking, 62% within $2^{nd}$ ranking, 74% within $5^{th}$ ranking after estimating using randomly extracted environment factors. In predicted soil map, soil sequences of Entisols-Alfisols-Andisols on northern area and Alfisols-Ultisols-Andisols on western area can be suggested along increasing altitude. More modeling studies will be needed for the genesis process of soils in Jeju Island.

Forecast Sensitivity to Observations for High-Impact Weather Events in the Korean Peninsula (한반도에 발생한 위험 기상 사례에 대한 관측 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, SeHyun;Kim, Hyun Mee;Kim, Eun-Jung;Shin, Hyun-Cheol
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.171-186
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the number of observations used in a data assimilation system is increasing due to the enormous amount of observations, including satellite data. However, it is not clear that all of these observations are always beneficial to the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP). Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effect of observations on these forecasts so that the observations can be used more usefully in NWP process. In this study, the adjoint-based Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) method with the KMA Unified Model (UM) is applied to two high-impact weather events which occurred in summer and winter in Korea in an effort to investigate the effects of observations on the forecasts of these events. The total dry energy norm is used as a response function to calculate the adjoint sensitivity. For the summer case, TEMP observations have the greatest total impact while BOGUS shows the greatest impact per observation for all of the 24-, 36-, and 48-hour forecasts. For the winter case, aircraft, ATOVS, and ESA have the greatest total impact for the 24-, 36-, and 48-hour forecasts respectively, while ESA has the greatest impact per observation. Most of the observation effects are horizontally located upwind or in the vicinity of the Korean peninsula. The fraction of beneficial observations is less than 50%, which is less than the results in previous studies. As an additional experiment, the total moist energy norm is used as a response function to measure the sensitivity of 24-hour forecast error to observations. The characteristics of the observation impact with the moist energy response function are generally similar to those with the dry energy response function. However, the ATOVS observations were found to be sensitive to the response function, showing a positive (a negative) effect on the forecast when using the dry (moist) norm for the summer case. For the winter case, the dry and moist energy norm experiments show very similar results because the adjoint of KMA UM does not calculate the specific humidity of ice properly such that the dry and moist energy norms are very similar except for the humidity in air that is very low in winter.