• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Process Prediction Process

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Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.

A Study of Competency for R&D Engineer on Semiconductor Company (반도체 기술 R&D 연구인력의 역량연구 -H사 기업부설연구소를 중심으로)

  • Yun, Hye-Lim;Yoon, Gwan-Sik;Jeon, Hwa-Ick
    • 대한공업교육학회지
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.267-286
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the advanced company has been sparing no efforts in improving necessary core knowledge and technology to achieve outstanding work performance. In this rapidly changing knowledge-based society, the company has confronted the task of creating a high value-added knowledge. The role of R&D workforce that corresponds to the characteristic and role of knowledge worker is getting more significant. As the life cycle of technical knowledge and skill shortens, in every industry, the technical knowledge and skill have become essential elements for successful business. It is difficult to improve competitiveness of the company without enhancing the competency of individual and organization. As the competency development which is a part of human resource management in the company is being spread now, it is required to focus on the research of determining necessary competency and to analyze the competency of a core organization in the research institute. 'H' is the semiconductor manufacturing company which has a affiliated research institute with its own R&D engineers. Based on focus group interview and job analysis data, vision and necessary competency were confirmed. And to confirm whether the required competency by job is different or not, analysis was performed by dividing members into workers who are in charge of circuit design and design before process development and who are in the process actualization and process development. Also, this research included members' importance awareness of the determined competency. The interview and job analysis were integrated and analyzed after arranging by groups and contents and the analyzed results were resorted after comparative analysis with a competency dictionary of Spencer & Spencer and competency models which are developed from the advanced research. Derived main competencies are: challenge, responsibility, and prediction/responsiveness, planning a new business, achievement -oriented, training, cooperation, self-development, analytic thinking, scheduling, motivation, communication, commercialization of technology, information gathering, professionalism on the job, and professionalism outside of work. The highly required competency for both jobs was 'Professionalism'. 'Attitude', 'Performance Management', 'Teamwork' for workers in charge of circuit design and 'Challenge', 'Training', 'Professionalism on the job' and 'Communication' were recognized to be required competency for those who are in charge of process actualization and process development. With above results, this research has determined the necessary competency that the 'H' company's affiliated research institute needs and found the difference of required competency by job. Also, it has suggested more enthusiastic education methods or various kinds of education by confirming the importance awareness of competency and individual's level of awareness about the competency.

A Study on Asset Valuation Method for Road Facilities Maintenance (도로시설물의 자산관리를 위한 자산가치평가방법에 관한 연구)

  • An, Jae-Min;Park, Jong-Bum;Lee, Dong-Youl;Lee, Min-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.141-151
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    • 2012
  • Infrastructure are the essential element in the country for they are the basic facilities forming the basis of economic activity. In Korea Infrastructure which are subject to the management of government are increasing annually, and subsequently the budget of maintenance costs is expected to rise significantly. For the effective management of the constructed and accumulated infrastructure, the integrated management of the future assets will be needed which includes the determination of the asset status, management subjects, and the location, the maintenance of their performance and state, and the prediction of the cost required to increase their useful lifetime. However, in the domestic cases the road facilities valuation has not been done systematically, and the preparation and research on this is scarce. Thus, the systematic procedure for the road facilities valuation is required. In this paper the following study was conducted to derive the reasonable asset valuation methods. First, the valuation methods was investigated and summarized throughout the domestic and international research literature. Second, to apply the investigated valuation methods to the road facilities the valuation process that reflects domestic conditions and characteristics has been developed. Third, a working Bridge, Highways, and General national ways were applied to the general valuation process, and the results were analyzed. As a final step a schematic diagram of the asset management support by WDRC valuation method was presented.

Application of the LISFLOOD-FP model for flood stage prediction on the lower mankyung river (만경강 하류 홍수위 예측을 위한 LISFLOOD-FP 모형의 적용성 검토)

  • Jeon, Ho-Seong;Kim, Ji-sung;Kim, Kyu-ho;Hong, il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.459-467
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    • 2016
  • LISFLOOD-FP model in which channel flows are resolved separately from the floodplain flows using either a kinematic or diffusive wave approximation has been used to analyze flooding behavior on the lower Mankyung River influenced by backwater. A calibration and validation process was applied using the previous flood events to assess the model performance. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for main calibrated parameters, such as Manning roughness coefficient and downstream boundary condition. Also, we examined the effect of warm-up for the initial conditions. The results show that the computed hydrograph is in good agreement with measured data on the study reach, even though it was a hydrologic kinematic wave model. The sensitive analysis show that the difference between the computed results may be greater depending on the used calibrated parameters and that the sufficient calibration/validation process against various flood events is necessary. If the flood inundation simulation is performed using the validated model, it is expected to be able to contribute about river planning and policy decision-making for flood damage reduction.

Solving Probability Constraint in Robust Optimization by Minimizing Percent Defective (불량률 최소화를 통한 강건 최적화의 확률제한조건 처리)

  • Lee, Kwang Ki;Park, Chan Kyoung;Kim, Geun Yeon;Lee, Kwon Hee;Han, Sang Wook;Han, Seung Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.8
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    • pp.975-981
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    • 2013
  • A robust optimization is only one of the ways to minimize the effects of variances in design variables on the objective functions at the preliminary design stage. To predict the variances and to formulate the probabilistic constraints are the most important procedures for the robust optimization formulation. Though several methods such as the process capability index and the six sigma technique were proposed for the prediction and formulation of the variances and probabilistic constraints, respectively, there are few attempts using a percent defective which has been widely applied in the quality control of the manufacturing process for probabilistic constraints. In this study, the robust optimization for a lower control arm of automobile vehicle was carried out, in which the design space showing the mean and variance sensitivity of weight and stress was explored before robust optimization for a lower control arm. The 2nd order Taylor expansion for calculating the standard deviation was used to improve the numerical accuracy for predicting the variances. Simplex algorithm which does not use the gradient information in optimization was used to convert constrained optimization into unconstrained one in robust optimization.

A Study on the Development of Explosion Proof ESD Detector and Intrinsic Safety Characteristics Analysis (방폭구조 ESD Detector 개발 및 본질안전 특성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Byeon, Junghwan;Choi, Sang-won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2020
  • Article 325 (Prevention of Fire Explosion due to Electrostatic) of the Rule for Occupational Safety and Health Standard specifies that in order to prevent the risk of disasters caused by static electricity, fire, explosion and static electricity in the production process, However, in order to do this, it is absolutely necessary to use a pre-detection technology and a detector for antistatic discharge prediction, which is a precautionary measure by static electricity in a fire / explosion hazard place, but in Korea, And there is no technical standard for the application of the technology of the explosion proof structure of the related equipment. Research methods include domestic and overseas electrostatic discharge detection technology and literature investigation of related equipment explosion proofing technology, domestic and foreign electrostatic discharge detection device production and use situation investigation, advanced foreign technology data analysis and benchmarking. In particular, we sought to verify the results of empirical experiments using electrostatic discharge detection technology through sample purchase and analysis of related major products, development of optimization technology through prototype production, evaluation, and supplementation, and expert knowledge through expert consultation. The results of this study were developed and fabricated two prototypes of electrostatic discharge detector based on the technology / standard related to electrostatic discharge detection technology in Korea and abroad through development of electrostatic discharge detection technology and development and production of detector. In addition, based on the development of electrostatic discharge detection technology, we developed an intrinsic safety explosion proof ib class explosion proof technology applicable to the process of using and handling flammable gas and flammable liquid vapor and combustible dust. In the case of the over voltage and minimum voltage are supplied to the explosion-proof structure ESD detector, check the state of the circuit and the transient and transient currents generated by the coil and capacitor elements during the input and standby of the signal pulse voltage. Explosion-proof equipment-Part 11: Intrinsically safe explosion proof structure The comparative evaluation with the reference curve in Annex A of "i" confirms that the characteristics of the intrinsically safe explosion protection structure are met.

Design of Web-GIS based SWG Simulator for Disseminating Integrated Water Information (통합 물정보 제공을 위한 웹 GIS 기반의 SWG 시뮬레이터 설계)

  • Park, Yonggil;Kim, Kyehyun;Lee, Sungjoo;Yoo, Jaehyun
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2015
  • Due to the global warming and unstable abnormal climate changes, water resources differences between regions and water shortage are occurring. Therefore, the water resources management is becoming more important for the stable securement of future water supply and demand. Researches on Smart Water Grid (SWG), which is considered as a new method, that can stably secure and maintain the water resources, are actively being conducted but it is still in infancy. Thus, this study aimed to design SWG simulator based on GIS in order to provide integrated water information in web environment. The user's requirements were analyzed for system development and important functions such as SWG current situation checking, future prediction, filtration plant situation checking functions were designed and data expression techniques using GIS and HTML5 were applied to enhance the understanding of the users. Also, when the emergency situations occurred, the solving process of the situations are reproduced to check the solution process using scenario reproduction functions. Use-case, class, sequence diagram, which are a design for real system development and defines the system usage contents of users, were written, and the story board was written to check the final development contents. This study designed a SWG simulator in order to support the water maintenance reacting to climate changes. The development of system is expected to help securing information to deal with emergency situations such as water shortage and help the decision maker to make decision through reproduction of scenario. The major functions were designed for the convenience of water resource manager and producer but new contents for consumers must be developed to enable duplex information transmission.

Measurement and Prediction of Fire and Explosion Properties of n-Ethylanilne (노말에틸아닐린의 화재 및 폭발 특성치의 측정 및 예측)

  • Ha, Dong-Myeong
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.474-478
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    • 2018
  • For process safety, fire and explosion characteristics of combustible materials handled at industrial fields must be available. The combustion properties for the prevention of the accidents in the work place are flash point, fire point, explosion limit, and autoignition temperature (AIT) etc.. However, the combustion properties suggested in the Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS) are presented differently according to the literatures. The accurate combustion properties are necessary to safely treatment, transportation and handling of flammable substances. In the chemical industries, n-ethylaniline which is widely used as a raw material of intermediate products and rubber chemicals was selected. For safe handling of n-ethyl aniline, the flash point, the fire point and the AIT were measured. The lower explosion limit (LEL)of n-ethylaniline was calculated using the lower flash point obtained in the experiment. The flash points of n- ethylaniline by using the Setaflash and Pensky-Martens closed-cup testers measured $77^{\circ}C$ and $82^{\circ}C$, respectively. The flash points of n-ethylaniline using the Tag and Cleveland open cup testers are measured $85^{\circ}C$ and $92^{\circ}C$, respectively. The AIT of the measured n-ethyl aniline by the ASTM E659 apparatus was measured at $396^{\circ}C$. The LEL of n-ethylaniline measured by Setaflash closed-cup tester at $77^{\circ}C$ was calculated to be 1.02 vol%. In this study, it was possible to predict the LEL by using the lower flash point of n-ethylaniline measured by closed-cup tester. The relationship between the ignition temperature and the ignition delay time of the n-ethylaniline proposed in this study makes it possible to predict the ignition delay time at different ignition temperatures.

Shear Strength Prediction of FRP RC Baem without Shear Reinforcements (전단 보강이 없는 FRP RC보의 전단강도 예측)

  • Lee, Jae-Hoon;Shin, Sung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.313-324
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    • 2010
  • There are many problems in application of FRP reinforcing bars as shear reinforcement, since bending of FRP bars is not a feasible process on construction site. Even though FRP bars can be manufactured in bent shape, they have lower strength at bent location. However, there are no serious problems to use FRP bars as flexural reinforcement. Plates or slabs like bridge decks, in general, do not need shear reinforcements. These types of members with FRP flexural reinforcement have lower shear strength than those with conventional steel flexural reinforcement. However, reliable process or equation for shear strength estimation of FRP reinforced concrete without shear reinforcement are not established, yet. In this study, predicted shear strength obtained from available design equations and assessment equations are compared with 211 experimental results. The results showed that among the current design codes, the Architectural Institute of Japan (AIJ) and the Institution of Structural Engineers (ISE) provided the best estimation. ACI 440.1R-06 provided conservative results with degree of dispersion similar to that of ISE. In addition, regression analysis on the collected experimental results was conducted to develop regression models. As a result, a new reliable shear strength equation was proposed.

A study on the development of simulation program for the small naturally aspirated four-stroke diesel engine (소형 4행정사이클 무과급 디이젤 기관의 성능 시뮤레이션 전산프로그램의 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 백태주;전효중
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-36
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    • 1984
  • Since 1973, the competition on the development of fuel saving type internal combustion engines has become severe by the two times oil shock, and new type engines are reported every several months. Whenever these new type engines are developed, new designs are required and they will be offered in the market after performing the endurance test for a long time. But the engine market is faced with a heavy burden of finance, as the developing of a new engine requires tremendous expenses. For this reason, the computer simulation method has been lately developed to cope with it. The computer simulation method can be available to perform the reasonable research works by the theoretical analysis before carrying out practical experiments. With these processes, the developing expenses are cut down and the period of development is curtailed. The object of this study is the development of simulation computer program for the small naturally aspirated four-stroke diesel engine which is intended to product by the original design of our country. The process of simulation is firstly investigated for the ideal engine cycle, and secondly for the real engine cycle. In the ideal engine cycle, each step of the cycle is simulated by the energy balance according to the first law of thermodynamics, and then the engine performance is calculated. In the real cycle imulation program, the injection rate, the preparation rate and the combustion rate of fuel and the heat transfer through the wall of combustion chamber are considered. In this case, the injection rate is supposed as constant through the crank angle interval of injection and the combustion rate is calculated by the Whitehouse-Way equation and the heat transfer is calculated by the Annand's equation. The simulated values are compared with measured values of the YANMAR NS90(C) engine and Mitsubishi 4D30 engine, and the following conclusions are drawn. 1. The heat loss by the exhaust gas is well agree with each other in the lower load, but the measured value is greater than the calculated value in the higher load. The maximum error rate is about 15% in the full load. 2. The calculated quantity of heat transfer to the cooling water is greater than the measured value. The maximum error rate is about 11.8%. 3. The mean effective pressure, the fuel consumption, the power and the torque are well agree with each other. The maximum error is occurred in the fuel consumption, and its error rate is about 7%. From the above remarks, it may be concluded that the prediction of the engine performance is possibly by using the developed program, although the program needs to reform by adding the simulation of intake and exhaust process and assumping more reliable mechanical efficiency, volumetric efficiency, preparation rate and combustion rate.

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