• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Modeling

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Fault Localization for Self-Managing Based on Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크 기반에 자가관리를 위한 결함 지역화)

  • Piao, Shun-Shan;Park, Jeong-Min;Lee, Eun-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.15B no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2008
  • Fault localization plays a significant role in enormous distributed system because it can identify root cause of observed faults automatically, supporting self-managing which remains an open topic in managing and controlling complex distributed systems to improve system reliability. Although many Artificial Intelligent techniques have been introduced in support of fault localization in recent research especially in increasing complex ubiquitous environment, the provided functions such as diagnosis and prediction are limited. In this paper, we propose fault localization for self-managing in performance evaluation in order to improve system reliability via learning and analyzing real-time streams of system performance events. We use probabilistic reasoning functions based on the basic Bayes' rule to provide effective mechanism for managing and evaluating system performance parameters automatically, and hence the system reliability is improved. Moreover, due to large number of considered factors in diverse and complex fault reasoning domains, we develop an efficient method which extracts relevant parameters having high relationships with observing problems and ranks them orderly. The selected node ordering lists will be used in network modeling, and hence improving learning efficiency. Using the approach enables us to diagnose the most probable causal factor with responsibility for the underlying performance problems and predict system situation to avoid potential abnormities via posting treatments or pretreatments respectively. The experimental application of system performance analysis by using the proposed approach and various estimations on efficiency and accuracy show that the availability of the proposed approach in performance evaluation domain is optimistic.

Application of High Resolution Multi-satellite Precipitation Products and a Distributed Hydrological Modeling for Daily Runoff Simulation (고해상도 다중위성 강수자료와 분포형 수문모형의 유출모의 적용)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Park, Kyung-Won;Jung, Il-Won;Han, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Gwangseob
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.263-274
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    • 2013
  • In this study we evaluated the hydrological applicability of multi-satellite precipitation estimates. Three high-resolution global multi-satellite precipitation products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and the Climate Precipitation Center (CPC) Morphing technique (CMORPH), were applied to the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) model for the evaluation of their hydrological utility. The CREST model was calibrated from 2002 to 2005 and validated from 2006 to 2009 in the Chungju Dam watershed, including two years of warm-up periods (2002-2003 and 2006-2007). Areal-averaged precipitation time series of the multi-satellite data were compared with those of the ground records. The results indicate that the multi-satellite precipitation can reflect the seasonal variation of precipitation in the Chungju Dam watershed. However, TMPA overestimates the amount of annual and monthly precipitation while GSMaP and CMORPH underestimate the precipitation during the period from 2002 to 2009. These biases of multi-satellite precipitation products induce poor performances in hydrological simulation, although TMPA is better than both of GSMaP and CMORPH. Our results indicate that advanced rainfall algorithms may be required to improve its hydrological applicability in South Korea.

The Effect of Empowering Leadership on Employee's Work Engagement and Job Satisfaction: Moderating Effect of Behavioral Integrity (임파워링 리더십이 조직구성원의 직무열의와 직무만족에 미치는 영향: 행동적 진실성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Ko, Min Jeong;Hah, Juhee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.217-230
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    • 2020
  • In a view of rapidly changing business environment, the success and competing power of organizations depend on committed, highly motivated and satisfied human resources. Empowerment is mainly concerned with establishing and building trust between management and employees, and motivating their participation. Also, behavioral integrity emphasizing on the characteristics of effective leaders has shown as direct action that strengthens positive consequences in organizations. However, research regarding behavioral integrity is very limited. Based on the Self-determination Theory, this paper investigates the effect of empowering leadership on employee's job satisfaction and work engagement. Multi-group analysis based on behavioral integrity is also analyzed. An online survey was conducted and 298 employees' data were collected. Using structural equation modeling, results suggest as follows. First, empowering leadership had a positive effect on individual's job satisfaction mediated by their work engagement. Second, the result of the multi-group analysis showed that the effect of empowering leadership on work engagement is stronger in the group with high behavioral integrity. Contrary to the prediction, the result doesn't support the moderating effect on job satisfaction. These findings contribute to our understanding of empowering leadership process. Based on the results, several theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

Numerical Study of Concentration Characteristics of Linear Fresnel Reflector System (선형 프레넬 반사판 시스템의 집광 특성에 대한 수치해석 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun Jin;Kim, Jong Kyu;Lee, Sang Nam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.927-934
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we numerically investigated the concentration characteristics of a linear Fresnel reflector system that can drive a solar thermal absorption refrigeration system to be installed in Saudi Arabia. Using an optical modeling program based on the Monte Carlo ray-tracing method, we simulated the concentrated solar flux, concentration efficiency, and concentrated solar energy on four representative days of the year - the vernal equinox, summer solstice, autumnal equinox, and winter solstice. Except the winter solstice, the concentrations were approximately steady from 9 AM to 15 PM, and the concentration efficiencies exceed 70%. Moreover, the maximum solar flux around the solar receiver center changes only within the range of $13.0{\sim}14.6kW/m^2$. When we investigated the effects of the receiver installation height, reflector width, and reflector gap, the optimal receiver installation height was found to be 5 m. A smaller reflector width had a greater concentration efficiency. However, the design of the reflector width should be based on the capacity of the refrigeration system because it dominantly affects the concentrated solar energy. The present study was an essential prerequisite for thermal analyses of the solar receiver. Thus, an optical-thermal integration study in the future will assist with the performance prediction and design of the entire system.

Modeling for Predicting Yield and $\alpha$-Acid Content in Hop (Humulus lupulus L.) from Meteorological Elements I. A Model for Predicting Fresh Cone Yield (기상요소에 따른 호프 (Humulus lupulus L.)의 수량 및 $\alpha$-Acid 함량 예측모형에 관한 연구 I. 생구화 수량 예측모형)

  • 박경열
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.215-221
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    • 1988
  • The hop yield prediction model developed based on meteorological elements in Hoeongseong was Y=6,042.846-17.665 $X_1$-0.919 $X_2$-96.538 $X_3$-138.105 $X_4$+86.910 $X_{5}$$X_{6}$ with MS $E_{p}$ of 25.258, $R_{p}$$^{2}$ of 0.9991, R $a_{p}$$^{2}$ of 0.9962 and $C_{p}$ of 7.00. The minimum air temperature at early growing stage ( $X_1$), the total precipitation at cone ripening stage ( $X_2$), the maximum air temperature at flower bud differentiation stage ( $X_3$) and the maximum air temperature at flowering stage ( $X_4$) influenced on hop yield as decrement weather elements. The average air temperature at early growing stage ( $X_{5}$ ) and the total sunshine hours at cone development stage ( $X_{6}$ ) influenced on hop yield as increment weather elements.lements.

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A study of a system for predicting damages of complex disasters considering the damage of major facilities (주요 시설물 피해를 고려한 복합재난 피해 예측 시스템 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Byung-Jin;Lee, Byung-Hoon;Oh, Seung-Hee;Lee, Yong-Tea;Kim, Kyung-Seok
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2017
  • Recently, disasters have become bigger and more complex, and the economic damage has increased due to the increase of urbanization and the concentration of infrastructure. These large complex disasters occur simultaneously in the second and third disasters due to the first single disaster, but the existing disaster management system in Korea is less adaptable because it is divided into natural disasters and social disasters. The cause of the complex disaster is the rapid urbanization of the residential environment caused by the change of the industrial structure, and the threat factors are various and unpredictable in the living environment. Natural disasters are becoming larger and more complex due to climate change due to global warming. Unlike the past, natural disasters are likely to develop into multiple disasters such as urban paralysis. Therefore, this paper considers natural disasters and social disasters in a comprehensive concept in order to overcome limitations of disaster management by existing single factors and manage disasters effectively and rationally. It is expected that it will play a big role in protecting the lives and property of the people through the establishment of a preemptive disaster management framework.

A Study on Application of GPS for Deflection Management of Curved PCT Girder Bridge under Construction (시공 중 곡선형 PCT 거더교의 처짐 관리를 위한 GPS 적용 연구)

  • Kyu Dal, Lee;Jin Duk, Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.453-461
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    • 2015
  • In order to manage the deflection of a curved PCT girder bridge during construction, a GPS receiver was installed at the spot predicted to be the weak point during the incremental launching so as to measure the deflection at each construction stage. The deflections obtained in the experiment were compared with those derived from the monitoring of stress, temperature and inclination. The comparative analysis of the GPS measurement and analytical values obtained from finite element modeling with respect to the launching distance showed that the measured values differ by 0.6 to 1.6 times to the analytical results. This difference could be significantly reduced by thermal calibration. From the analysis of the behavioral pattern of the bridge, deflection occurred during construction in the concrete tip due to the deflection at the head of the nose at the 95m and 75m-spots, and compression and tension developed respectively at the compression weak zone and tension weak zone. The application of GPS appeared to enable more efficient management of the deflection during the erection of the curved PCT girder bridge and is expected to be helpful for the prediction and management of the behavior in future ILM construction sites.

Development and Validation Test of Effective Wet Scavenging Contribution Regression Models Using Long-term Air Monitoring and Weather Database (장기간 대기오염 및 기상자료를 이용한 유효강수세정 기여율 회귀모델의 개발 및 유효성 검사)

  • Lim, Deukyong;Lee, Tae-Jung;Kim, Dong-Sool
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2013
  • This study used long-term air and weather data from 2000 to 2009 as raw data sets to develop regression models in order to estimate precipitation scavenging contributions of ambient $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ in Korea. The data were initially analyzed to calculate scavenging ratio (SR), defined as the removal efficiency for $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ by actual precipitation. Next, the effective scavenging contributions (ESC) with considering precipitation probability density were calculated for each sector of precipitation range. Finally, the empirical regression equations for the two air pollutants were separately developed, and then the equations were applied to test the model validity with the raw data sets of 2010 and 2011, which were not involved in the modeling process. The results showed that the predicted $PM_{10}$ ESC by the model was 23.8% and the observed $PM_{10}$ ESCs were 23.6% in 2010 and 24.0% in 2011, respectively. As for $NO_2$, the predicted ESC by the model was 16.3% and the observed ESCs were 16.4% in 2010 and 16.6% in 2011, respectively. Thus the developed regression models fitted quite well the actual scavenging contribution for both ambient $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$. The models can then be used as a good tool to quantitatively apportion the natural and anthropogenic sink contribution in Korea. However, to apply the models for far future, the precipitation probability density function (PPDF) as a weather variable in the model equations must be renewed periodically to increase prediction accuracy and reliability. Further, in order to apply the models in a specific local area, it is recommended that the long-term oriented local PPDF should be inserted in the models.

Machinability investigation and sustainability assessment in FDHT with coated ceramic tool

  • Panda, Asutosh;Das, Sudhansu Ranjan;Dhupal, Debabrata
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.681-698
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    • 2020
  • The paper addresses contribution to the modeling and optimization of major machinability parameters (cutting force, surface roughness, and tool wear) in finish dry hard turning (FDHT) for machinability evaluation of hardened AISI grade die steel D3 with PVD-TiN coated (Al2O3-TiCN) mixed ceramic tool insert. The turning trials are performed based on Taguchi's L18 orthogonal array design of experiments for the development of regression model as well as adequate model prediction by considering tool approach angle, nose radius, cutting speed, feed rate, and depth of cut as major machining parameters. The models or correlations are developed by employing multiple regression analysis (MRA). In addition, statistical technique (response surface methodology) followed by computational approaches (genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization) have been employed for multiple response optimization. Thereafter, the effectiveness of proposed three (RSM, GA, PSO) optimization techniques are evaluated by confirmation test and subsequently the best optimization results have been used for estimation of energy consumption which includes savings of carbon footprint towards green machining and for tool life estimation followed by cost analysis to justify the economic feasibility of PVD-TiN coated Al2O3+TiCN mixed ceramic tool in FDHT operation. Finally, estimation of energy savings, economic analysis, and sustainability assessment are performed by employing carbon footprint analysis, Gilbert approach, and Pugh matrix, respectively. Novelty aspects, the present work: (i) contributes to practical industrial application of finish hard turning for the shaft and die makers to select the optimum cutting conditions in a range of hardness of 45-60 HRC, (ii) demonstrates the replacement of expensive, time-consuming conventional cylindrical grinding process and proposes the alternative of costlier CBN tool by utilizing ceramic tool in hard turning processes considering technological, economical and ecological aspects, which are helpful and efficient from industrial point of view, (iii) provides environment friendliness, cleaner production for machining of hardened steels, (iv) helps to improve the desirable machinability characteristics, and (v) serves as a knowledge for the development of a common language for sustainable manufacturing in both research field and industrial practice.

Intercomparison of Change Point Analysis Methods for Identification of Inhomogeneity in Rainfall Series and Applications (강우자료의 비동질성 규명을 위한 변동점 분석기법의 상호비교 및 적용)

  • Lee, Sangho;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Yeong Seob;Sung, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.671-684
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    • 2014
  • Change point analysis is a efficient tool to understand the fundamental information in hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, discharge, temperature etc. Especially, this fundamental information to change points to future rainfall data identified by reasonable detection skills can affect the prediction of flood and drought occurrence because well detected change points provide a key to resolve the non-stationary or inhomogeneous problem by climate change. Therefore, in this study, the comparative study to assess the performance of the 3 change point detection skills, cumulative sum (CUSUM) method, Bayesian change point (BCP) method, and segmentation by dynamic programming (DP) was performed. After assessment of the performance of the proposed detection skills using the 3 types of the synthetic series, the 2 reasonable detection skills were applied to the observed and future rainfall data at the 5 rainfall gauges in South Korea. Finally, it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) could be best detection skill and DP could be reasonably recommended through the comparative study. Also it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) and DP detection skills to find some change points could be reasonable at the North-eastern part in South Korea. In future, the results in this study can be efficiently used to resolve the non-stationary problems in hydrological modeling considering inhomogeneity or nonstationarity.