• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Formula

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A Study on Estimate Model for Peak Time Congestion

  • Kim, Deug-Bong;Yoo, Sang-Lok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2014
  • This study applied regression analysis to evaluate the impact of hourly average congestion calculated by bumper model in the congested area of each passage of each port on the peak time congestion, to suggest the model formula that can predict the peak time congestion. This study conducted regression analysis of hourly average congestion and peak time congestion based on the AIS survey study of 20 ports in Korea. As a result of analysis, it was found that the hourly average congestion has a significant impact on the peak time congestion and the prediction model formula was derived. This formula($C_p=4.457C_a+29.202$) can be used to calculate the peak time congestion based on the predicted hourly average congestion.

Experiment and Prediction of Nonlinear Behavior at High Temperatures of Ferroelectric Ceramics Switched by Electric Field at Room Temperature

  • Ji, Dae Won;Kim, Sang-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Ceramic Society
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.235-242
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    • 2017
  • Changes in polarization and thermal expansion coefficients during temperature increase of a poled lead zirconate titanate (PZT) cube specimen switched by an electric field at room temperature are measured. The measured data are analyzed to construct governing differential equations for polarization and strain changes. By solving the differential equations, an experimental formula for the high temperature behavior of ferroelectric materials is obtained. It is found that the predictions by the formula are in good agreement with measures. From the viewpoint of macroscopic remnant state variables, it appears that the processes of electric field-induced switching at different temperatures are identical and independent of temperature between $20^{\circ}C$ and $110^{\circ}C$.

Determining Shear Modulus of 3-ply Laminated Veneer Lumber by Uniaxial Tension Test

  • Oh, Sei-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.425-431
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    • 2013
  • Estimation equations of shear modulus in the plane of laminated veneer lumber (LVL) were compared each other through uniaxial tension test results. The equations - basic elastic equation in the dimensional orthotropic case, Hankinson's formula and empirical equation proposed by Salikis and Falk, were applied to determine the elastic constants at various angles to the grain, which were needed for determination of shear modulus. Tensile elastic modulus of LVL predicted from these equations were compared with test data to evaluate the accuracy of the equation. Tensile elastic modulus rapidly decreased at orientations between 0 and 15 degrees and elastic modulus at grain angles of 15, 30, and 45 degrees overestimated in the presented equations. But the proposed equation by Salikis and Falk showed better prediction, especially at 30, and 45 degrees. This proposed formula would be more useful and practical for estimating of shear modulus of wood composites like LVL to minimize the effect of Poisson's ratio term.

On the Seasonal Prediction of Traffic Accidents in Relation to the Weather Elements in Pusan Area (기상요소에 따른 부산지역 계절별 교통사고 변화와 예측에 관한 연구)

  • 이동인;이문철;유철환;이상구;이철기
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.469-474
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    • 2000
  • The traffic accidents in large cities such as Pusan metropolitan city have been increased every year due to increasing of vehicles numbers as well as the gravitation of the population. In addition to the carelessness of drivers, many meteorological factors have a great influence on the traffic accidents. Especially, the number of traffic accidents is governed by precipitation, visibility, cloud amounts temperature, etc. In this study, we have analyzed various data of meteorological factors from 1992 to 1997 and determined the standardized values for contributing to each traffic accident. Using the relationship between meteorological factors(visibility, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amounts) and the total automobile mishaps, and experimental prediction formula for their traffic accident rates was seasonally obtained at Pusan city in 1997. Therefore, these prediction formulas at each meteorological factor may by used to predict the seasonal traffic accident numbers and contributed to estimate the variation of its value according to the weather condition it Pusan city.

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A Study on the Prediction and Database Program of Ship Noise (선박소음예측 및 데이터베이스 프로그램 개발)

  • 박종현;김동해
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2001.05a
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    • pp.149-154
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    • 2001
  • Ship owners are demanding quieter vessels since crews have become more sensitive to their acoustic environment. Accordingly, designers of shipyards need to respond intelligently to the challenging requirements of delivering a quiet vessel. In early design stage, to predict shipboard noise the statistical approach is preferred to other methods because of simplicity. However, since the noise characteristics of the ships vary continuously with the environments, it is necessary to update the prediction formula with data base management system. This paper describes the feature of database program with the prediction method. Database management programs with GUI, are applied to Intranet system that is accessible by any users. Statistical approach to the prediction of A-weighted noise level in ship cabins, based on multiple regression analysis, is conducted. The noise levels in ship cabins are mainly affected by the parameters of the deadweight, the type of ship, the relative location of engines and cabins, the type of deckhouse, etc. As a result of verification, the formulas ensure the accuracy of 3 ㏈ in 83 % of cabins.

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Prediction of Stability Number for Tetrapod Armour Block Using Artificial Neural Network and M5' Model Tree (인공신경망과 M5' model tree를 이용한 Tetrapod 피복블록의 안정수 예측)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo;Suh, Kyung-Duck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2011
  • It was calculated using empirical formulas for the weight of Tetrapod, which was a representative armor unit in the rubble mound breakwater in Korea. As the formulas were evaluated from a curve-fitting with the result of hydraulic test, the uncertainty of experimental error was included. Therefore, the neural network and M5' model tree were used to minimize the uncertainty and predicted the stability number of armor block. The index of agreement between the predicted and measured stability number was calculated to assess the degree of uncertainty for each model. While the neural network with the highest index of agreement have an excellent prediction capability, a significant disadvantage exists that general designers can not easily handle the method. However, although M5' model tree has a lower prediction capability than the neural network, the model tree is easily used by the designers because it has a good prediction capability compared with the existing empirical formula and can be used to propose the formulas like an empirical formula.

Preliminary design and cost estimation of helicopters (회전익 항공기의 기본설계 및 가격예측 연구)

  • Lee, Choong-Yun;Ko, Kwang-Ho;Jung, Sung-Nam;Yu, Yung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.309-314
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    • 2010
  • In this work, the helicopter price estimation formula from Harris & Scully is revised and updated for more accurate prediction of the current prices of helicopters which can be applied in the preliminary design stage. As many as 74 helicopter price and sizing data after the year 1997 are newly included to the out-dated coefficients in the cost estimation formula. In addition, the updated price estimation formula is added to Tishchenko's preliminary sizing method for price consideration in the preliminary design stage. Sikorsky's S-76C+ helicopter is used along with other various helicopters for comparison and validation of the sizing code as well as the new updated price estimation formula.

Correction of resonance frequency for RF amplifiers based on superconducting quantum interference device

  • Lee, Y.H.;Yu, K.K.;Kim, J.M.;Lee, S.K.;Chong, Y.;Oh, S.J.;Semertzidis, Y.K.
    • Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.6-10
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    • 2018
  • Low-noise amplifiers in the radio-frequency (RF) band based on the direct current (DC) superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) can be used for quantum-limited measurements in precision physics experiments. For the prediction of peak-gain frequency of these amplifiers, we need a reliable design formula for the resonance frequency of the microstrip circuit. We improved the formula for the resonance frequency, determined by parameters of the DC SQUID and the input coil, and compared the design values with experimental values. The proposed formula showed much accurate results than the conventional formula. Minor deviation of the experimental results from the theory can be corrected by using the measured geometrical parameters of the input coil line.

An evaluation of the adequacy of pont's index (Pont 지수의 임상적 적합성에 대한 평가)

  • Kim, Seong-Hun;Lee, Ki-Soo
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.30 no.1 s.78
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2000
  • Dental arch expansion is one of the method used to solve the dental crowding problem by non-extraction. Many formulae using tooth size have been suggested to predict ideal inter-premolar and inter-molar width. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of some upper dental arch width prediction methods, namely Pont's method, Schmuth's method and Cha's method. The sample consisted of the casts of 119 Korean young adults who had no muscular abnormality, no skeletal discrepancy, and Angle's Class I molar relationships. Measurements were obtained directly from plaster casts; they Included mesiodistal crown diameters of the four maxillary incisors, as well as maxillary inter-first-premolar and inter-first-molar arch widths as specified by Pont. The correlation coefficients between the sum of incisors(SI) and upper dental arch width were calculated. The differences between predicted width and actual width were classified as overestimated, properestimated, and underestimated. The data obtained from each group were analyzed for statistical differences. The results were as follows : 1. Upper dental arch width indices were calculated from SI in normal occlusion (81.96 : premolar index, 62.55 : molar index). 2. Low correlations between SI and arch width were noted in normal occlusion (0.50 in the inter-premolar width, 0.39 in the inter-molar width). 3. Pont's formula and Schmuth's formula tended to overestimate the inter-premolar width. A more even distribution of estimates was noted in Cha's fomula. 4. Cases within $\pm$1 mm range of observed inter-premolar width were $45\%$ in the Cha's formula, $40\%$ in the Pont's formula, and $39\%$ in the Schmuth's formula. 5. All formulae had a tendency to underestimate the inter-molar width, but Cha's formula had better predictability than others. 6. Cases within $\pm$1 mm range of observed inter-molar width were $40\%$ in the Cha's formula, $29\%$ in the Pont's formula, and $13\%$ of Schmuth's formula. The data presented in this study does not support the clinical usefulness of ideal arch width prediction methods using the mesiodistal width of maxillary incisors.

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Analysis of the Change in the Area of Haeundae Beach Based on Wave Characteristics (파랑특성을 고려한 해운대 해수욕장의 해빈면적 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Beom;Kim, Jong-Kyu;Kang, Tae-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.324-339
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we determined the correlation between the wave characteristics and the change in the area of Haeundae Beach, conducted regression analysis between the wave characteristics and the change in beach area, and derived a formula for calculating the change in beach area. The change in beach area was calculated by applying the derived formula to wave observation data corresponding to a period of approximately 10 months, and the formula was subsequently validated by comparing the obtained results with the observed area. It is found that the error associated with the formula for calculating the change in beach area ranges from 1.5 m to 2.7 m based on the average beach width, and the correlation coefficient corresponding to the observed area ranges from 0.91 to 0.94. Furthermore, it is observed that the change in beach area is af ected by the wave direction in the western zone, wave height in the central zone, and wave height and wave period in the eastern zone. These results can contribute to understanding the impact of a coastal improvement project on the beach area fluctuation characteristics of Haeundae Beach and the ef ectiveness of such a coastal improvement project. By applying the aforementioned derived formula to highly accurate wave prediction data, the change in beach area can be calculated and incorporated for predicting significant long-term changes in beach areas. Furthermore, such a prediction can be considered as the basis for making decisions while establishing preemptive countermeasure policies to prevent coastal erosion.