• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.481-488
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• 2014

An analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to LBLOCA using the Monte-Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by the Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LOCA phenomena were determined based on previous PIRT results and documentation during the BEMUSE project. Calulations were conducted on 3,500 cases within a 2-week CPU time on a 14-PC cluster system. The Monte-Carlo exercise shows that the 95% upper limit PCT value can be obtained well, with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula, although we have to endure a 5% risk of PCT under-prediction. The results also show that the statistical fluctuation of the limit value using Wilks' first-order is as large as the uncertainty value itself. It is therefore desirable to increase the order of the Wilks' formula to be higher than the second-order to estimate the reliable safety margin of the design features. It is also shown that, with its ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for a nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame.

• Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-89
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• 1985

This study comprised 157 extracted teeth, 73 of the teeth originated from mates and 84 from females, the age range was 12-79 years. The correlation coefficient of each Gustafson's criteria in relation to age was carried out. Age estimation were performed on 157 teeth according to the method by Gustafson and by use of multiple regression, as used by Johanson, after evaluating the six criteria of Gustafson by multiple regression computer analysis. Two prediction formulas and standard deviations were compared with each other. The results were as follows : 1. The author found that six Gustafson's criteria had strong correlation with age except root resorption, and correlation coefficients were r = 0.79 (Transparent dentin), r=0.72 (Secondary dentin), r 0.69 (Periodontal change), r=0.63(Attrition), r = 0.39 (Root resorption), respecti vely. 2. The age estimation formula by Gustafson's method was calculated as follows: Y 8.88 + 3.52X r =0.87, r2 = 0.76, SD = 8.18, F = 483.56, P < 0.01 The age estimation formula by multiple regression was calculated as follows: Y 8.57 + 6.37T + 6.37T + 4.63P + 2.70S + 2.40C + 3.08A + 1.34R r= 0.89, r2 = 0.78, SD = 7.82, F = 91.62, P < 0.01, Durbin-Watson Coefficient = 1.09 3. In comparison of two estimation formulas, the formula by multiple regression, the method of Johanson, was found to be slightly more reliable than Gustafson's method. Gustafson's method SD = 8.18, Multiple regression (Johanson's method) SD = 7.82 4. It was reaffirmed that Gustafson's six criteria could be a independent variable in multiple regression analysis.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.335-343
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• 2017

The Newman-Raju formula and contour integral-based finite element analyses(FEAs) have been widely used to assess crack growth rates and residual lives at crack locations in ships or offshore structures, but the Newman-Raju formula is known to be less accurate for the complicated weld details and the conventional FEA-based contour integral approach needs concentrated efforts to construct FEA models. Recently, an extended finite element method(XFEM) has been proposed to reduce those modeling efforts with reliable accuracy. Stress intensity factors(SIFs) from the approaches such as the Newman-Raju formula, conventional FEA-based J-integral, and XFEM-based J-integral were compared for an infinitely long plate with a propagating elliptic crack. It was concluded that the XFEM approach was far reliable in terms of prediction ability of SIFs. Assuming a 25 year-aged coast guard patrol ship had the prescribed cracks at the bracket toes attached to longitudinal stiffeners in way of deck and bottom, SIFs were derived based on the three approaches. To obtain axial tension loads acting on the longitudinal stiffeners, long term hull girder bending moments were assumed to obey Weibull distribution of which two parameters were decided from a reference (DNV, 2014). For the complicated weld details, it was concluded that the XFEM approach could cost-effectively and accurately estimate the crack growth rates and residual lives of ship structures.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.241-253
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• 2015

In this paper we predict the track of typhoons using a Bayesian principal component regression model based on wind field data. Data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Based on regression model, we applied to variable selection prior and two kinds of prior distribution; normal and Laplace distribution. We show prediction results based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and Median Probability Model (MPM) estimator. We analysis 8 typhoons in 2006 using data obtained from previous 6 years (2000-2005). We compare our prediction results with a moving-nest typhoon model (MTM) proposed by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We posit that is possible to predict the track of a typhoon accurately using only a statistical model and without a dynamical model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 1997.04a
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• pp.452-459
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• 1997

For computer aided design and construction of low noisy power plants, indoor and outdoor noise prediction program has been developed. The program utilizes the predefined data of noise sources and building materials and has the faculty to estimate the source level using the empirical formula in case of the measured data not being available. In the noise prediction, the mutual noise propagation between indoor and outdoor sites are considered. The outdoor noise source in the calculation of geometric divergence effects is modelled as the omni-directional finite line or planar source according to the source geometry and the receiving points. Outdoor noise prediction is carried out to consider the diffraction effect due to plant structures as well as the attenuation effect due to atmospheric absorption and soft ground. The results of indoor and outdoor noise prediction for a recently constructed diesel engine power plant show good agreement with the measured.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2000.06a
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• pp.78-83
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• 2000

Exterior noise generated by the aircraft induces a serious noise pollution near the airport. For the prediction of an exterior noise radiation of aircraft an empirical formula is employed to model the acoustic sources. It is shown that the fan/compressor noise is the most dominant part of the acoustic sources in all cases.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.189-194
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• 2001

In this study, ultimate strength of concrete deep beams with an opening is predicted by using Strut-and-Tie Model with a new effective compressive strength. First crack occurs around an opening by stress concentration due to geometric discontinuity. This results in decreasing ultimate strength of deep beams with an opening compared with general deep beams. With fundamental notion that ultimate strength of deep beam with an opening decreases as a result of reduction in effective compressive strength of a concrete strut, an equivalent effective compressive strength formula is proposed in order to reflect ultimate strength reduction due to an opening located in a concrete strut. An equivalent effective compressive strength formula which can reflect opening size and position is added to a testified algorithm of predicting ultimate strength of concrete deep beams. Therefore, ultimate strength of concrete deep beam with an opening is predicted by using a simple and rational STM algorithm including an equivalent effective compressive strength formula, not by finite element analysis or a former complex Strut-and-Tie Model

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.133-142
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• 1983

A new dynamic pile-driving formula derived by the writer, in which the mechanics of stress waves and the effect of residual stresses were considered for more accurate prediction of the load carrying capacity of piles, was compared with other representative formulas through statistical analysis using the load test results. As the result, the new formula was estimated as highly accurate and reliable, with its safety factor less than 3.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1990.04a
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• pp.108-115
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• 1990

This paper contains experimental studies on the flexural cracking behabior of PPC one-way slabs. Three post tensioned bonded PPC slabs with the same prestressing ratio and ultimate moment strength were tested. Based upon test results, this paper also presents the crack width prediction formula PPC slab. According to the crack theory developed mainly in Europe, crack width formula is given as the product of crack spacing and mean steel strain after decompression. Aaaaverage crack spacing formula is composed of many factors mainly such as concrete cover, concrete effective area in tension, sum of reinforcing bars perimeters and mixed reinforcements. In particular, it is very important to specify the bond characteristics of mixed reinforcements, since bond characteristics of PC bars are different from those of non-tensioned deformed bars. For this reason, a reduced bond coefficients for PS bars is employed in this study.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.40-45
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• 1986

In this paper, the I-resistance curve of low-carbon steel with 3 mm thickness was investigated for various crack ratios. The experiments were carried out for the center cracked tension (CCT) specimen with about 50 mm width on an instron machine. The plane stress fracture toughness obtained by the Simpson's formula was Ii. = 24.96 kgffmm. Simpson's formula which considers crack growth in obtaining J integral showed more conservative lin than Rice's and Sumpter's. For materials that may be approximated by the Ramberg and Osgood stress strain law, the relevant crack parameters like the J integral, load line displacement are approximately normalized. Crack driving forces in terms of the I integral are computed for low-carbon steel CCT specimen using the above estimation scheme. Comparison of the prediction with actual experimental measurements by Simpson's formula showed good agreement for several different sized specimen.