• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Control

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Prediction Models of Residual Chlorine in Sediment Basin to Control Pre-chlorination in Water Treatment Plant (정수장 전염소 공정 제어를 위한 침전지 잔류 염소 농도 예측모델 개발)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hyuk;Kim, Ju-Hwan;Lim, Jae-Lim;Chae, Seon Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.601-607
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    • 2007
  • In order to maintain constant residual chlorine in sedimentation basin, It is necessary to develop real time prediction model of residual chlorine considering water treatment plant data such as water qualities, weather, and plant operation conditions. Based on the operation data acquired from K water treatment plant, prediction models of residual chlorine in sediment basin were accomplished. The input parameters applied in the models were water temperature, turbidity, pH, conductivity, flow rate, alkalinity and pre-chlorination dosage. The multiple regression models were established with linear and non-linear model with 5,448 data set. The corelation coefficient (R) for the linear and non-linear model were 0.39 and 0.374, respectively. It shows low correlation coefficient, that is, these multiple regression models can not represent the residual chlorine with the input parameters which varies independently with time changes related to weather condition. Artificial neural network models are applied with three different conditions. Input parameters are consisted of water quality data observed in water treatment process based on the structure of auto-regressive model type, considering a time lag. The artificial neural network models have better ability to predict residual chlorine at sediment basin than conventional linear and nonlinear multi-regression models. The determination coefficients of each model in verification process were shown as 0.742, 0.754, and 0.869, respectively. Consequently, comparing the results of each model, neural network can simulate the residual chlorine in sedimentation basin better than mathematical regression models in terms of prediction performance. This results are expected to contribute into automation control of water treatment processes.

A Study on Development of App-Based Electric Fire Prediction System (앱기반 전기화재 예측시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Kwan;Kim, Eung-Kwon
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.85-90
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    • 2013
  • Currently, the electric fire prediction system uses PIC(Peripheral Interface Controller) for controller microprocessor. PIC has a slower computing speed than DSP does, so its real-time computing ability is inadequate. So with the basic characteristics waveform during arc generation as the standard reference, the comparison to this reference is used to predict and alarm electric fire from arc. While such alarm can be detected and taken care of from a remote central server, that prediction error rate is high and remote control in mobile environment is not available. In this article, the arc detection of time domain and frequency domain and wavelet-based adaptation algorithm executing the adaptation algorithm in conversion domain were applied to develop an electric fire prediction system loaded with new real-time arc detection algorithm using DSP. Also, remote control was made available through iPhone environment-based app development which enabled remote monitoring for arc's electric signal and power quality, and its utility was verified.

Prediction of Internal Tube Bundle Failure in High Pressure Feedwater Heater for a Power Generation Boiler by the Operating Record Monitoring (운전기록 모니터링에 의한 발전보일러용 고압 급수가열기 내부 튜브의 파손예측)

  • Kim, Kyeong-seob;Yoo, Hoseon
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the failure analysis of the internal tube occurred in the high pressure feedwater heater for power generation boiler of 500 MW supercritical pressure coal fired power plant was investigated. I suggested a prediction model that can diagnose internal tube failure by changing the position of level control valve on the shell side and the suction flow rate of the boiler feedwater pump. The suggested prediction model is demonstrated through additional cases of feedwater system unbalance. The simultaneous comparison of the shell side level control valve position and the suction flow rate of the boiler feedwater pump compared to the normal operating state value, even in the case of the high pressure feedwater heater for the power boiler, It can be a powerful prediction diagnosis.

Explainable AI Application for Machine Predictive Maintenance (설명 가능한 AI를 적용한 기계 예지 정비 방법)

  • Cheon, Kang Min;Yang, Jaekyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.227-233
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    • 2021
  • Predictive maintenance has been one of important applications of data science technology that creates a predictive model by collecting numerous data related to management targeted equipment. It does not predict equipment failure with just one or two signs, but quantifies and models numerous symptoms and historical data of actual failure. Statistical methods were used a lot in the past as this predictive maintenance method, but recently, many machine learning-based methods have been proposed. Such proposed machine learning-based methods are preferable in that they show more accurate prediction performance. However, with the exception of some learning models such as decision tree-based models, it is very difficult to explicitly know the structure of learning models (Black-Box Model) and to explain to what extent certain attributes (features or variables) of the learning model affected the prediction results. To overcome this problem, a recently proposed study is an explainable artificial intelligence (AI). It is a methodology that makes it easy for users to understand and trust the results of machine learning-based learning models. In this paper, we propose an explainable AI method to further enhance the explanatory power of the existing learning model by targeting the previously proposedpredictive model [5] that learned data from a core facility (Hyper Compressor) of a domestic chemical plant that produces polyethylene. The ensemble prediction model, which is a black box model, wasconverted to a white box model using the Explainable AI. The proposed methodology explains the direction of control for the major features in the failure prediction results through the Explainable AI. Through this methodology, it is possible to flexibly replace the timing of maintenance of the machine and supply and demand of parts, and to improve the efficiency of the facility operation through proper pre-control.

Is Health Locus of Control a Modifying Factor in the Health Belief Model for Prediction of Breast Self-Examination?

  • Tahmasebi, Rahim;Noroozi, Azita
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.2229-2233
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    • 2016
  • Background: Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers among women in the world. Early detection is necessary to improve outcomes and decrease related costs. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive power of health locus of control as a modifying factor in the Health Belief Model (HBM) for prediction of breast self-examination. Materials and Methods: In this cross- sectional study, 400 women selected through the convenience sampling from health centers. Data were collected using part of the Champion's HBM scale (CHBMS), the Health Locus of Control Scale and a self administered questionnaire. For data analysis by SPSS the independent T test, Chi square test, logistic and linear regression modes were appliedl. Results: The results showed that 10.9% of the participants reported performing BSE regularly. Health locus of control did not act as a predictor of BSE as a modifying factor. In this study, perceived self-efficacy was the strongest predictor of BSE performance (Exp (B) =1.863) with direct effect, while awareness had direct and indirect influence. Conclusions: For increasing BSE, improvement of self-efficacy especially in young women and increasing knowledge about cancer is necessary.

A novel smart criterion of grey-prediction control for practical applications

  • Z.Y. Chen;Ruei-yuan Wang;Yahui Meng;Timothy Chen
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a scalable grey predictive controller with unavoidable random delays. Grey prediction is proposed to solve problems caused by incorrect parameter selection and to eliminate the effects of dynamic coupling between degrees of freedom (DOFs) in nonlinear systems. To address the stability problem, this study develops an improved gray-predictive adaptive fuzzy controller, which can not only solve the implementation problem by determining the stability of the system, but also apply the Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) law to calculate Fuzzy change parameters. Fuzzy logic controllers manipulate robotic systems to improve their control performance. The stability is proved using Lyapunov stability theorem. In this article, the authors compare different controllers and the proposed predictive controller can significantly reduce the vibration of offshore platforms while keeping the required control force within an ideal small range. This paper presents a robust fuzzy control design that uses a model-based approach to overcome the effects of modeling errors. To guarantee the asymptotic stability of large nonlinear systems with multiple lags, the stability criterion is derived from the direct Lyapunov method. Based on this criterion and a distributed control system, a set of model-based fuzzy controllers is synthesized to stabilize large-scale nonlinear systems with multiple delays.

A Study on the Upright Control of an Inverted Triangle (역삼각형의 직립 제어에 관한 연구)

  • 오영석;유영호
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.571-578
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents a method for designing a control system to stand upright inverted triangle. A linearized model is obtained form the nonlinear system by Taylor series expansion and a state controller is designed based on the model. After implementing the control system which is combined control law and estimator with reference input, experiments are carried out to stand upright inverted triangle at any angluar position.

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Chaos in PID Controlled Nonlinear Systems

  • Ablay, Gunyaz
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.1843-1850
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    • 2015
  • Controlling nonlinear systems with linear feedback control methods can lead to chaotic behaviors. Order increase in system dynamics due to integral control and control parameter variations in PID controlled nonlinear systems are studied for possible chaos regions in the closed-loop system dynamics. The Lur’e form of the feedback systems are analyzed with Routh’s stability criterion and describing function analysis for chaos prediction. Several novel chaotic systems are generated from second-order nonlinear systems including the simplest continuous-time chaotic system. Analytical and numerical results are provided to verify the existence of the chaotic dynamics.

A Novel extended Horizon Self-tuning Control Using Incremental Estimator (증분형 추정기를 사용한 새로운 장구간 예측 자기동조 제어)

  • 박정일;최계근
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.614-628
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    • 1988
  • In the original incremental Extended Horizon Control, the control inputs are computed recursively each step in the prediction horizon. But in this paper, we propose another incremental Extended Horizon Self-tuning Control version in which control inputs can be computed directly in any time interval. The effectiveness of this algorithm in a variable time delay or load disturbances environment is demonstrated by computer simulation. The controlled plant is a nonminimum phase system.

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