• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Algorithms

Search Result 996, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Machine Learning Based Structural Health Monitoring System using Classification and NCA (분류 알고리즘과 NCA를 활용한 기계학습 기반 구조건전성 모니터링 시스템)

  • Shin, Changkyo;Kwon, Hyunseok;Park, Yurim;Kim, Chun-Gon
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.84-89
    • /
    • 2019
  • This is a pilot study of machine learning based structural health monitoring system using flight data of composite aircraft. In this study, the most suitable machine learning algorithm for structural health monitoring was selected and dimensionality reduction method for application on the actual flight data was conducted. For these tasks, impact test on the cantilever beam with added mass, which is the simulation of damage in the aircraft wing structure was conducted and classification model for damage states (damage location and level) was trained. Through vibration test of cantilever beam with fiber bragg grating (FBG) sensor, data of normal and 12 damaged states were acquired, and the most suitable algorithm was selected through comparison between algorithms like tree, discriminant, support vector machine (SVM), kNN, ensemble. Besides, through neighborhood component analysis (NCA) feature selection, dimensionality reduction which is necessary to deal with high dimensional flight data was conducted. As a result, quadratic SVMs performed best with 98.7% for without NCA and 95.9% for with NCA. It is also shown that the application of NCA improved prediction speed, training time, and model memory.

RDP-based Lateral Movement Detection using PageRank and Interpretable System using SHAP (PageRank 특징을 활용한 RDP기반 내부전파경로 탐지 및 SHAP를 이용한 설명가능한 시스템)

  • Yun, Jiyoung;Kim, Dong-Wook;Shin, Gun-Yoon;Kim, Sang-Soo;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2021
  • As the Internet developed, various and complex cyber attacks began to emerge. Various detection systems were used outside the network to defend against attacks, but systems and studies to detect attackers inside were remarkably rare, causing great problems because they could not detect attackers inside. To solve this problem, studies on the lateral movement detection system that tracks and detects the attacker's movements have begun to emerge. Especially, the method of using the Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) is simple but shows very good results. Nevertheless, previous studies did not consider the effects and relationships of each logon host itself, and the features presented also provided very low results in some models. There was also a problem that the model could not explain why it predicts that way, which resulted in reliability and robustness problems of the model. To address this problem, this study proposes an interpretable RDP-based lateral movement detection system using page rank algorithm and SHAP(Shapley Additive Explanations). Using page rank algorithms and various statistical techniques, we create features that can be used in various models and we provide explanations for model prediction using SHAP. In this study, we generated features that show higher performance in most models than previous studies and explained them using SHAP.

Comparison of Prediction Accuracy Between Classification and Convolution Algorithm in Fault Diagnosis of Rotatory Machines at Varying Speed (회전수가 변하는 기기의 고장진단에 있어서 특성 기반 분류와 합성곱 기반 알고리즘의 예측 정확도 비교)

  • Moon, Ki-Yeong;Kim, Hyung-Jin;Hwang, Se-Yun;Lee, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.46 no.3
    • /
    • pp.280-288
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study examined the diagnostics of abnormalities and faults of equipment, whose rotational speed changes even during regular operation. The purpose of this study was to suggest a procedure that can properly apply machine learning to the time series data, comprising non-stationary characteristics as the rotational speed changes. Anomaly and fault diagnosis was performed using machine learning: k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest. To compare the diagnostic accuracy, an autoencoder was used for anomaly detection and a convolution based Conv1D was additionally used for fault diagnosis. Feature vectors comprising statistical and frequency attributes were extracted, and normalization & dimensional reduction were applied to the extracted feature vectors. Changes in the diagnostic accuracy of machine learning according to feature selection, normalization, and dimensional reduction are explained. The hyperparameter optimization process and the layered structure are also described for each algorithm. Finally, results show that machine learning can accurately diagnose the failure of a variable-rotation machine under the appropriate feature treatment, although the convolution algorithms have been widely applied to the considered problem.

Machine Learning-based Phase Picking Algorithm of P and S Waves for Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data (분포형 광섬유 센서 자료 적용을 위한 기계학습 기반 P, S파 위상 발췌 알고리즘 개발)

  • Yonggyu, Choi;Youngseok, Song;Soon Jee, Seol;Joongmoo, Byun
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.177-188
    • /
    • 2022
  • Recently, the application of distributed acoustic sensors (DAS), which can replace geophones and seismometers, has significantly increased along with interest in micro-seismic monitoring technique, which is one of the CO2 storage monitoring techniques. A significant amount of temporally and spatially continuous data is recorded in a DAS monitoring system, thereby necessitating fast and accurate data processing techniques. Because event detection and seismic phase picking are the most basic data processing techniques, they should be performed on all data. In this study, a machine learning-based P, S wave phase picking algorithm was developed to compensate for the limitations of conventional phase picking algorithms, and it was modified using a transfer learning technique for the application of DAS data consisting of a single component with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Our model was constructed by modifying the convolution-based EQTransformer, which performs well in phase picking, to the ResUNet structure. Not only the global earthquake dataset, STEAD but also the augmented dataset was used as training datasets to enhance the prediction performance on the unseen characteristics of the target dataset. The performance of the developed algorithm was verified using K-net and KiK-net data with characteristics different from the training data. Additionally, after modifying the trained model to suit DAS data using the transfer learning technique, the performance was verified by applying it to the DAS field data measured in the Pohang Janggi basin.

Development of smart car intelligent wheel hub bearing embedded system using predictive diagnosis algorithm

  • Sam-Taek Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.28 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2023
  • If there is a defect in the wheel bearing, which is a major part of the car, it can cause problems such as traffic accidents. In order to solve this problem, big data is collected and monitoring is conducted to provide early information on the presence or absence of wheel bearing failure and type of failure through predictive diagnosis and management technology. System development is needed. In this paper, to implement such an intelligent wheel hub bearing maintenance system, we develop an embedded system equipped with sensors for monitoring reliability and soundness and algorithms for predictive diagnosis. The algorithm used acquires vibration signals from acceleration sensors installed in wheel bearings and can predict and diagnose failures through big data technology through signal processing techniques, fault frequency analysis, and health characteristic parameter definition. The implemented algorithm applies a stable signal extraction algorithm that can minimize vibration frequency components and maximize vibration components occurring in wheel bearings. In noise removal using a filter, an artificial intelligence-based soundness extraction algorithm is applied, and FFT is applied. The fault frequency was analyzed and the fault was diagnosed by extracting fault characteristic factors. The performance target of this system was over 12,800 ODR, and the target was met through test results.

Assessing the Climatic Suitability for the Drywood Termite, Cryptotermes domesticus Haviland (Blattodea: Kalotermitidae), in South Korea (마른나무흰개미(가칭)의 국내 기후적합성 평가)

  • Min-Jung Kim;Jun-Gi Lee;Youngwoo Nam ;Yonghwan Park
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.62 no.3
    • /
    • pp.215-220
    • /
    • 2023
  • A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.

Machine- and Deep Learning Modelling Trends for Predicting Harmful Cyanobacterial Cells and Associated Metabolites Concentration in Inland Freshwaters: Comparison of Algorithms, Input Variables, and Learning Data Number (담수 유해남조 세포수·대사물질 농도 예측을 위한 머신러닝과 딥러닝 모델링 연구동향: 알고리즘, 입력변수 및 학습 데이터 수 비교)

  • Yongeun Park;Jin Hwi Kim;Hankyu Lee;Seohyun Byeon;Soon-Jin Hwang;Jae-Ki Shin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.56 no.3
    • /
    • pp.268-279
    • /
    • 2023
  • Nowadays, artificial intelligence model approaches such as machine and deep learning have been widely used to predict variations of water quality in various freshwater bodies. In particular, many researchers have tried to predict the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in inland water, which pose a threat to human health and aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, the objective of this study were to: 1) review studies on the application of machine learning models for predicting the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms and its metabolites and 2) prospect for future study on the prediction of cyanobacteria by machine learning models including deep learning. In this study, a systematic literature search and review were conducted using SCOPUS, which is Elsevier's abstract and citation database. The key results showed that deep learning models were usually used to predict cyanobacterial cells, while machine learning models focused on predicting cyanobacterial metabolites such as concentrations of microcystin, geosmin, and 2-methylisoborneol (2-MIB) in reservoirs. There was a distinct difference in the use of input variables to predict cyanobacterial cells and metabolites. The application of deep learning models through the construction of big data may be encouraged to build accurate models to predict cyanobacterial metabolites.

Neural Network-Based Prediction of Dynamic Properties (인공신경망을 활용한 동적 물성치 산정 연구)

  • Min, Dae-Hong;Kim, YoungSeok;Kim, Sewon;Choi, Hyun-Jun;Yoon, Hyung-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.39 no.12
    • /
    • pp.37-46
    • /
    • 2023
  • Dynamic soil properties are essential factors for predicting the detailed behavior of the ground. However, there are limitations to gathering soil samples and performing additional experiments. In this study, we used an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict dynamic soil properties based on static soil properties. The selected static soil properties were soil cohesion, internal friction angle, porosity, specific gravity, and uniaxial compressive strength, whereas the compressional and shear wave velocities were determined for the dynamic soil properties. The Levenberg-Marquardt and Bayesian regularization methods were used to enhance the reliability of the ANN results, and the reliability associated with each optimization method was compared. The accuracy of the ANN model was represented by the coefficient of determination, which was greater than 0.9 in the training and testing phases, indicating that the proposed ANN model exhibits high reliability. Further, the reliability of the output values was verified with new input data, and the results showed high accuracy.

Predicting Forest Gross Primary Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms (머신러닝 기법의 산림 총일차생산성 예측 모델 비교)

  • Lee, Bora;Jang, Keunchang;Kim, Eunsook;Kang, Minseok;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.29-41
    • /
    • 2019
  • Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) is the largest global carbon flux, and forest ecosystems are important because of the ability to store much more significant amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. There have been several attempts to estimate GPP using mechanism-based models. However, mechanism-based models including biological, chemical, and physical processes are limited due to a lack of flexibility in predicting non-stationary ecological processes, which are caused by a local and global change. Instead mechanism-free methods are strongly recommended to estimate nonlinear dynamics that occur in nature like GPP. Therefore, we used the mechanism-free machine learning techniques to estimate the daily GPP. In this study, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used and compared with the traditional multiple linear regression model (LM). MODIS products and meteorological parameters from eddy covariance data were employed to train the machine learning and LM models from 2006 to 2013. GPP prediction models were compared with daily GPP from eddy covariance measurement in a deciduous forest in South Korea in 2014 and 2015. Statistical analysis including correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean squared error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of models. In general, the models from machine-learning algorithms (R = 0.85 - 0.93, MSE = 1.00 - 2.05, p < 0.001) showed better performance than linear regression model (R = 0.82 - 0.92, MSE = 1.24 - 2.45, p < 0.001). These results provide insight into high predictability and the possibility of expansion through the use of the mechanism-free machine-learning models and remote sensing for predicting non-stationary ecological processes such as seasonal GPP.

A Machine Learning-based Total Production Time Prediction Method for Customized-Manufacturing Companies (주문생산 기업을 위한 기계학습 기반 총생산시간 예측 기법)

  • Park, Do-Myung;Choi, HyungRim;Park, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.177-190
    • /
    • 2021
  • Due to the development of the fourth industrial revolution technology, efforts are being made to improve areas that humans cannot handle by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning. Although on-demand production companies also want to reduce corporate risks such as delays in delivery by predicting total production time for orders, they are having difficulty predicting this because the total production time is all different for each order. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) theory was developed to find the least efficient areas to increase order throughput and reduce order total cost, but failed to provide a forecast of total production time. Order production varies from order to order due to various customer needs, so the total production time of individual orders can be measured postmortem, but it is difficult to predict in advance. The total measured production time of existing orders is also different, which has limitations that cannot be used as standard time. As a result, experienced managers rely on persimmons rather than on the use of the system, while inexperienced managers use simple management indicators (e.g., 60 days total production time for raw materials, 90 days total production time for steel plates, etc.). Too fast work instructions based on imperfections or indicators cause congestion, which leads to productivity degradation, and too late leads to increased production costs or failure to meet delivery dates due to emergency processing. Failure to meet the deadline will result in compensation for delayed compensation or adversely affect business and collection sectors. In this study, to address these problems, an entity that operates an order production system seeks to find a machine learning model that estimates the total production time of new orders. It uses orders, production, and process performance for materials used for machine learning. We compared and analyzed OLS, GLM Gamma, Extra Trees, and Random Forest algorithms as the best algorithms for estimating total production time and present the results.