• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction#4

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Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of the Haines Index related to the Wildland Fire Growth Potential over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 산불 확장 잠재도와 관련된 Haines Index의 시.공간적 특징)

  • Choi Cwang-Yong;Kim Jun-Su;Won Myoung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.41 no.2 s.113
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    • pp.168-187
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    • 2006
  • Windy meteorological conditions and dried fire fuels due to higher atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere can exacerbate fire controls and result in more losses of forest resources and residential properties due to enhanced large wildland fires. Long-term (1979-2005) climatology of the Haines Index reconstructed in this study reveals that spatial patterns and intra-annual variability of the atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere affect the frequency of wildland fire incidences over the Korean Peninsula. Exponential regression models verify that daily high Haines Index and its monthly frequency has statistically significant correlations with the frequency of the wildland fire occurrences during the fire season (December-April) in South Korea. According to the climatic maps of the Haines Index created by the Geographic Information System (GIS) using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the lowlands below 500m from the mean sea level in the northwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula demonstrates the high frequency of the Haines Index equal to or greater than five in April and May. The annual frequency of the high Haines Index represents an increasing trend across the Korean Peninsula since the mid-1990s, particularly in Gyeongsangbuk-do and along the eastern coastal areas. The composite of synoptic weather maps at 500hPa for extreme events, in which the high Haines Index lasted for several days consecutively, illustrates that the cold low pressure system developed around the Sea of Okhotsk in the extreme event period enhances the pressure gradient and westerly wind speed over the Korean Peninsula. These results demonstrate the need for further consideration of the spatial-temporal characteristics of vertical atmospheric components, such as atmospheric instability and dryness, in the current Korean fire prediction system.

Analysis of Sleep Questionnaires of Patients who Performed Overnight Polysomnography at the University Hospital (한 대학병원에서 철야 수면다원검사를 시행한 환자들의 수면설문조사 결과 분석)

  • Kang, Ji Ho;Lee, Sang Haak;Kwon, Soon Seog;Kim, Young Kyoon;Kim, Kwan Hyoung;Song, Jeong Sup;Park, Sung Hak;Moon, Hwa Sik;Park, Yong Moon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.76-82
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    • 2006
  • Background : The objective of this study was to understand sleep-related problems, and to determine whether the sleep questionnaires is a clinically useful method in patients who need polysomnography. Methods : Subjects were patients who performed polysomnography and who asked to answer a sleep questionnaires at the Sleep Disorders Clinic of St. Paul's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea. Baseline characteristics, past medical illness, behaviors during sleep-wake cycle, snoring, sleep-disordered breathing and symptoms of daytime sleepiness were analyzed to compare with data of polysomnography. Results : The study population included 1081 patients(849 men, 232 female), and their mean age was $44.2{\pm}12.8years$. Among these patients, 38.9% had an apnea-hypopnea index(AHI)<5, 27.9% had $5{\leq}AHI<20$, 13.2% had $20{\leq}AHI<40$, and 20.0% had $40{\leq}AHI$. The main problems for visiting our clinic were snoring(91.7%), sleep apnea(74.5%), excessive daytime sleepiness(8.0%), insomnia(4.3%), bruxism(1.1%) and attention deficit(0.5%). The mean value of frequency of interruptions of sleep was 1.6 and the most common reason was urination(46.3%). Epworth Sleepiness Scale(ESS) had a weak correlation with AHI(r=0.209, p<0.01). When we performed analysis of sleep questionnaires, there were significant differences in the mean values of AHI according to the severity of symptoms including snoring, daytime sleepiness, taking a nap and arousal state after wake(p<0.05). Conclusion : On the basis of statistical analysis of sleep questionnaires, the severity of subjective symptoms such as ESS, snoring, daytime sleepiness and arousal state after wake correlated with the AHI significantly. Therefore the sleep questionnaires can be useful instruments for prediction of the severity of sleep disorder, especially sleep-disordered breathing.

Predicting the Goshawk's habitat area using Species Distribution Modeling: Case Study area Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea (종분포모형을 이용한 참매의 서식지 예측 -충청북도를 대상으로-)

  • Cho, Hae-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Shin, Man-Seok;Kang, Tehan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2015
  • This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.

Negative Ion Generation Index according to Altitude in the Autumn of Pine Forest in Gyeongju Namsan (경주 남산 소나무림의 가을철 해발고도별 음이온 발생지수)

  • Kim, Jeong Ho;Yoon, Ji Hun;Lee, Sang Hoon;Choi, Won Jun;Yoon, Yong Han
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.413-424
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    • 2018
  • The study analyzed the effects of topographic structures and altitude in mountainous parks in Mt. Namsan in Gyeongju on the generation of anions. The temperature was at ridge ($9.82^{\circ}C$) > valley ($8.44^{\circ}C$), the relative humidity valley (59.01 %) > ridge (58.64 %), the solar radiation ridge ($34.40W/m^2$) > valley($14.69W/m^2$), the wind speed ridge (0.63m/s) > valley(0.37m/s), and the negative ion valley($636.81ea/cm^3$) > ridge($580.04ea/cm^3$). In the valley, the correlation with altitude was verified for the temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and negative ion generation in the valley. The relative humidity, solar radiation, and negative ion indicated a positive correlation while the temperature had a negative correlation. In the ridge, the correlation with altitude was verified for the temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and negative ion generation. The relative humidity, solar radiation, and negative ion generation indicated a positive correlation while the temperature and wind speed had a negative correlation. The regression analysis showed the prediction equation of y=-0.006x+9.663 (x=altitude, y=temperature) in the valley and y=-0.009x+11.595 (x=altitude, y=temperature) in the ridge for the temperature, y=0.027x+53.561 (x=altitude, y=relative humidity) in the valley and y=0.008x+56.646 (x=altitude, y=relative humidity) in the ridges for the relative humidity, and y=0.027x+53.561 (x=altitude, y=negative Ion generation) in the valley and y= 0.008x+56.646 (x=altitude, y=negative Ion generation) in the ridge for the negative ion generation.

The Generation of Westerly Waves by Sobaek Mountains (소백산맥에 의한 서풍 파동 발생)

  • Kim, Jin wook;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2017
  • The westerly waves generation is described in the advanced earth science textbook used at high school as follows: as westerly wind approaches and blows over large mountains, the air flow shows wave motions in downwind side, which can be explained by the conservation of potential vorticity. However, there has been no case study showing the phenomena of the mesoscale westerly waves with observational data in the area of small mountains in Korea. And thus the wind speed and time persistency of westerly winds along with the width and length of mountains have never been studied to explain the generation of the westerly waves. As a first step, we assured the westerly waves generated in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains based on surface station wind data nearby. Furthermore, the critical or minimum wind velocity of the westerly wind over Sobaek mountains to generate the downwind wave were derived and calcuated tobe about $0.6m\;s^{-1}$ for Sobaek mountains, which means that the westerly waves could be generated in most cases of westerly blowing over the mountains. Using surface station data and 4-dimensional assimilation data of RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) provided by Korea Meteorological Agency, we also analyzed cases of westerly waves occurrence and life cycle in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains for a year of 2014. The westerly waves occurred in meso-${\beta}$ or -${\gamma}$ scales. The westerly waves generated by the mountains disappeared gradually with wind speed decreasing. The occurrence frequency of the vorticity with meso-${\beta}$ scale got to be higher when the stronger westerly wind blew. When we extended the spatial range of the analysis, phenomena of westerly waves were also observed in the downwind side of Yensan mountains in Northeastern China. Our current work will be a study material to help students understand the atmospheric phenomena perturbed by mountains.

A Study on the Effectiveness and Possibility of Chemistry Inquiry Programs Based on Reverse Science Principle (RSP(Reverse Science Principle)기반 화학 탐구 프로그램의 효과 및 가능성 탐색)

  • Jo, Eun-ji;Yang, Heesun;Kang, Seong-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.299-313
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    • 2018
  • Inquiry-centered education is important in science education, but in the actual education field, scientific research is being done in a uniform manner due to realistic difficulties. In this study, we use RS (Reverse Science) as a secondary chemistry class to provide opportunities for students to engage in inquiry learning and scientific thinking through process-oriented activities. In this study, we developed and applied it to explore the effects on the scientific inquiry abilities of middle school students and checked the students' perception of it. For the application of the program, 128 students were selected from 6 classes of the 2nd grade in D district middle school, 64 from the experimental group and 64 from the comparative group. The experimental group taught RSP-based the chemistry inquiry programs and the comparative group taught instructor-led classes and verification experiments on the same topic over the seventh hour with three themes. In addition, we analyzed the results of the pre- and post-test by using the science inquiry ability test, and discussed the effects of the program based on the students' perceptions through class observation, student activity area, questionnaire and interview. As a result, the class using the program showed statistically significant changes in the science inquiry ability of secondary school students. Specifically, the experimental group was found to be significant in its prediction among the subcomponents of basic exploration ability compared to the comparative group. The differences have also been shown to be significant in terms of data translation, hypothesis setup and variable control, which are subcomponents of integrated exploration capabilities (p <. 05). In addition, students became interested in the process of creating the theory of science, and were highly interested in collaborating with their friends. It also provided students with opportunities to experience scientific thinking through process-oriented inquiry. Finally, based on the positive impact of the RSP-based chemistry inquiry program on students, we were able to identify the potential use of the program.

A STUDY ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE IMPLANT STABILITY USING RESONANCE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS (공진 주파수 분석법에 의한 임플랜트의 안정성 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Park Cheol;Lim Ju-Hwan;Cho In-Ho;Lim Heon-Song
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.182-206
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    • 2003
  • Statement of problem : Successful osseointegration of endosseous threaded implants is dependent on many factors. These may include the surface characteristics and gross geometry of implants, the quality and quantity of bone where implants are placed, and the magnitude and direction of stress in functional occlusion. Therefore clinical quantitative measurement of primary stability at placement and functional state of implant may play a role in prediction of possible clinical symptoms and the renovation of implant geometry, types and surface characteristic according to each patients conditions. Ultimately, it may increase success rate of implants. Purpose : Many available non-invasive techniques used for the clinical measurement of implant stability and osseointegration include percussion, radiography, the $Periotest^{(R)}$, Dental Fine $Tester^{(R)}$ and so on. There is, however, relatively little research undertaken to standardize quantitative measurement of stability of implant and osseointegration due to the various clinical applications performed by each individual operator. Therefore, in order to develop non-invasive experimental method to measure stability of implant quantitatively, the resonance frequency analyzer to measure the natural frequency of specific substance was developed in the procedure of this study. Material & method : To test the stability of the resonance frequency analyzer developed in this study, following methods and materials were used : 1) In-vitro study: the implant was placed in both epoxy resin of which physical properties are similar to the bone stiffness of human and fresh cow rib bone specimen. Then the resonance frequency values of them were measured and analyzed. In an attempt to test the reliability of the data gathered with the resonance frequency analyzer, comparative analysis with the data from the Periotest was conducted. 2) In-vivo study: the implants were inserted into the tibiae of 10 New Zealand rabbits and the resonance frequency value of them with connected abutments at healing time are measured immediately after insertion and gauged every 4 weeks for 16 weeks. Results : Results from these studies were such as follows : The same length implants placed in Hot Melt showed the repetitive resonance frequency values. As the length of abutment increased, the resonance frequency value changed significantly (p<0.01). As the thickness of transducer increased in order of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 mm, the resonance frequency value significantly increased (p<0.05). The implants placed in PL-2 and epoxy resin with different exposure degree resulted in the increase of resonance frequency value as the exposure degree of implants and the length of abutment decreased. In comparative experiment based on physical properties, as the thickness of transducer increased, the resonance frequency value increased significantly(p<0.01). As the stiffness of substances where implants were placed increased, and the effective length of implants decreased, the resonance frequencies value increased significantly (p<0.05). In the experiment with cow rib bone specimen, the increase of the length of abutment resulted in significant difference between the results from resonance frequency analyzer and the $Periotest^{(R)}$. There was no difference with significant meaning in the comparison based on the direction of measurement between the resonance frequency value and the $Periotest^{(R)}$ value (p<0.05). In-vivo experiment resulted in repetitive patternes of resonance frequency. As the time elapsed, the resonance frequency value increased significantly with the exception of 4th and 8th week (p<0.05). Conclusion : The development of resonance frequency analyzer is an attempt to standardize the quantitative measurement of stability of implant and osseointegration and compensate for the reliability of data from other non-invasive measuring devices It is considered that further research is needed to improve the efficiency of clinical application of resonance frequency analyzer. In addition, further investigation is warranted on the standardized quantitative analysis of the stability of implant.

The study of quantitative analytical method for pH and moisture of Hanji record paper using non-destructive FT-NIR spectroscopy (비파괴 분석 방법인 푸리에 변환 근적외선 분광 분석을 이용한 한지 기록물의 산성도 및 함수율 정량 분석 연구)

  • Shin, Yong-Min;Park, Soung-Be;Lee, Chang-Yong;Kim, Chan-Bong;Lee, Seong-Uk;Cho, Won-Bo;Kim, Hyo-Jin
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.121-126
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    • 2012
  • It is essential to evaluate the quality of Hanji record paper without damaging the record paper by previous destructive methods. The samples were Hanji record paper produced in the 1900s. Near-infrared (NIR) spectrometer was used as a non destructive method for evaluating the quality of record papers. Fourier transform (FT) spectrometer was used with 12,500 to 4,000 $cm^{-1}$ wavenumber range for quantitative analysis and it has high accuracy and good signal-to-noise ratio. The acidity and moisture content of Hanji record paper were measured by integrating sphere as diffuse reflectance type. The acidity (pH) of chemical factors as a quality evaluated factor of Hanji was correlated to NIR spectrum. The NIR spectrum was pretreated to obtain the coefficients of optimum correlation. Multiplicative scatter correction (MSC) and First derivative of Savitzky-Golay were used as pretreated methods. The coefficients of optimum correlation were calculated by PLSR (partial least square regression). The correlation coefficients ($R^2$) of acidity had 0.92 on NIR spectra without pretreatment. Also the standard error of prediction (SEP) of pH was 0.24. And then the NIR spectra with pretreatment would have better correlation coefficient ($R^2$ = 0.98) and 0.19 as SEP on pH. For moisture contents, the linearity correlation without pretreatment was higher than the case with pretreatment (MSC, $1^{st}$ derivative). As the best result, the $R^2$ was 0.99 and SEP was 0.45. This indicates that it is highly proper to evaluate the quality of Hanji record papers speedily with integrated sphere and FT NIR analyzer as a non-destructive method.

Projection of Potential Cultivation Region of Satsuma Mandarin and 'Shiranuhi' Mandarin Hybrid Based on RCP 8.5 Emission Scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오에 근거한 온주밀감과 '부지화'의 잠재적 재배지 변화 예측)

  • Moon, Young-Eel;Kang, Seok-Beom;Lee, Hyejin;Choi, Young-Hun;Son, In-Chang;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Ki;An, Moon-Il
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2017
  • The potential change of the cultivation area of main citrus cultivars, satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) and 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid [(Citrus unshiu ${\times}$ C. sinensis) ${\times}$ C. reticulata] were determined with base year (1981 to 2010) to 2090. The meteorological data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the digital agricultural climate map of 30m-solution based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 was used for projection of potential cultivation area. As a result, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin included almost Jeju region during base year. At the 2030s, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin increased and the cultivable region also increased focused on the coast region of Jeonnam province. From the 2060s, the suitable area spread out to mountain area of Jeju, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast region of Kangwon, and the cultivable region expanded to the area of Gyeongbuk, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk. In the case of 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid, the suitable region included only the partial coast area of Jeju, and cultivable area covered Jeju region and the partial southern coast of Jeonnam during the standard period. At the 2030s, the suitable region of 'Shiranuhi' included the current cultivation area of satsuma mandarin, and the cultivable region moved to northward by the partial southern coast region. At the 2090s, the slightly increased suitable region covered all Jeju regions, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast area of Kangwon, and the cultivable region proceeded northward focusing on the coastline. In conclusion, the prediction of the potential land for citrus cultivation based on the RCP 8.5 showed that the suitable region of satsuma mandarin decreased, whereas that of cultivation of 'Shiranuhi' increased. Moreover, it was forecasted that citrus cultivation area would extend to Kangwon region at the end of the $21^{st}$ century.

Study on sea fog detection near Korea peninsula by using GMS-5 Satellite Data (GMS-5 위성자료를 이용한 한반도 주변 해무탐지 연구)

  • 윤홍주
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.875-884
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    • 2000
  • Sea fog/stratus is very difficult to detect because of the characteristics of air-sea interaction and locality ,and the scantiness of the observed data from the oceans such as ships or ocean buoys. The aim of our study develops new algorism for sea fog detection by using Geostational Meteorological Satellite-5(GMS-5) and suggests the technics of its continuous detection. In this study, atmospheric synoptic patterns on sea fog day of May, 1999 are classified; cold air advection type(OOUTC, May 10, 1999) and warm air advection type(OOUTC, May 12, 1999), respectively, and we collected two case days in order to analyze variations of water vapor at Osan observation station during May 9-10, 1999.So as to detect daytime sea fog/stratus(OOUTC, May 10, 1999), composite image, visible accumulated histogram method and surface albedo method are used. The characteristic value during day showed A(min) .20% and DA < 10% when visible accumulated histogram method was applied. And the sea fog region which is detected is similar in composite image analysis and surface albedo method. Inland observation which visibility and relative humidity is beneath 1Km and 80%, respectively, at OOUTC, May 10,1999; Poryoung for visble accumulated histogram method and Poryoung, Mokp'o and Kangnung for surface albedo method. In case of nighttime sea fog(18UTC, May 10, 1999), IR accumulated histogram method and Maximum brightness temperature method are used, respectively. Maxium brightness temperature method dectected sea fog better than IR accumulated histogram method with the charateristic value that is T_max < T_max_trs, and then T_max is beneath 700hPa temperature of GDAPS(Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System). Sea fog region which is detected by Maxium brighness temperature method was similar to the result of National Oceanic and Atmosheric Administratio/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) DCD(Dual Channel Difference), but usually visibility and relative humidity are not agreed well in inland.

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