• Food Science and Preservation
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.472-481
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• 2009

Response surface methodology (RSM) is frequently used for optimization studies. In the present work, RSM was used to determine the antimicrobial activitiesof grapefruit seed extract (GFSE) and a lactic acid mixture (LA) against Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhimurium, Pseudomonas fluorescens, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus. A central composite design was used to investigate the effects of independent variables on dependent parameters. One set of antimicrobial preparations included mixtures of 1% (w/w) GFSE and 10% (w/w) LA, in which the relative proportions of component antimicrobials varied between 0 and 100%. In further experiments, the relative proportions were between 20% and 100%. Antimicrobial effects against various microorganisms were mathematically encoded for analysis. The codes are given in parentheses after the bacterial names, and were S. aureus ($Y_1$), B. cereus ($Y_2$), E. coli ($Y_3$), S. typhimurium ($Y_4$), P. fluorescens ($Y_5$), and V. parahaemolyticus ($Y_6$). The optimum antimicrobial activity of the 1% (w/w) GFSE:10% (w/w) LA mixture against each microorganism was obtained by superimposing contour plots ofantimicrobial activities on measures of response obtained under various conditions. The optimum rangesfor maximum antimicrobial activity of a mixture with a ratio of 1:10 (by weight) GFSE and LA were 35.73:64.27 and 56.58:43.42 (v/v), and the optimum mixture ratio was 51.70-100%. Under the tested conditions (a ratio of 1% [w/w] GFSE to 10% [w/w] LA of 40:60, and a concentration of 1% [w/w] GFSE and 10% [w/w] LA, 70% of the highest value tested), and within optimum antimicrobial activity ranges, the antimicrobial activities of the 1% (w/w) GFSE:10% (w/w) LA mixture against S. aureus ($Y_1$), B. cereus ($Y_2$), E. coli ($Y_3$), S. typhimurium ($Y_4$), P. fluorescens ($Y_5$), and V. parahaemolyticus ($Y_6$) were 24.55, 25.22, 20.20, 22.49, 23.89, and 28.04 mm, respectively. The predicted values at optimum conditions were similar to experimental values.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.803-811
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• 2021

In this study, the exposure amount of IASCC test worker was evaluated by applying the process simulation technology. Using DELMIA Version 5, a commercial process simulation code, IASCC test facility, hot cells, and workers were prepared, and IASCC test activities were implemented, and the cumulative exposure of workers passing through the dose-distributed space could be evaluated through user coding. In order to simulate behavior of workers, human manikins with a degree of freedom of 200 or more imitating the human musculoskeletal system were applied. In order to calculate the worker's exposure, the coordinates, start time, and retention period for each posture were extracted by accessing the sub-information of the human manikin task, and the cumulative exposure was calculated by multiplying the spatial dose value by the posture retention time. The spatial dose for the exposure evaluation was calculated using MCNP6 Version 1.0, and the calculated spatial dose was embedded into the process simulation domain. As a result of comparing and analyzing the results of exposure evaluation by process simulation and typical exposure evaluation, the annual exposure to daily test work in the regular entrance was predicted at similar levels, 0.388 mSv/year and 1.334 mSv/year, respectively. Exposure assessment was also performed on special tasks performed in areas with high spatial doses, and tasks with high exposure could be easily identified, and work improvement plans could be derived intuitively through human manikin posture and spatial dose visualization of the tasks.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.239-251
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• 2019

Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.268-278
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• 2020

Flowering time has been put forward due to the recent abnormally warm winter, which often caused damages of flower buds by late frosts persistently. In the present study, cumulative chill unit and cumulative heat unit of Niitaka pear, which are required for releasing the endogenous dormancy and for flowering after breaking dormancy, respectively, were compared between flowering time prediction models used in South K orea. Observation weather data were collected at eight locations for the recent three years from 2018-2020. The dates of full bloom were also collected to determine the confidence level of models including DVR, mDVR and CD models. It was found that mDVR model tended to have smaller values (8.4%) of the coefficient of variation (cv) of chill units than any other models. The CD model tended to have a low value of cv (17.5%) for calculation of heat unit required to reach flowering after breaking dormancy. The mDVR model had the most accurate prediction of full bloom during the study period compared with the other models. The DVR model usually had poor skills in prediction of full bloom dates. In particular, the error of the DVR model was large especially in southern coastal areas (e.g., Ulju and Sacheon) where the temperature was warm. Our results indicated that the mDVR model had relatively consistent accuracy in prediction of full bloom dates over region and years of interest. When observation data for full bloom date are compiled for an extended period, the full bloom date can be predicted with greater accuracy improving the mDVR model further.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.10
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• pp.723-736
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• 2022

In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.451-468
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• 2021

Predicting hazardous ground conditions ahead of a TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) tunnel face is essential for efficient and stable TBM advance. Although there have been several studies on the electrical resistivity survey method for TBM tunnelling, sufficient experimental data considering TBM advance were not established yet. Therefore, in this study, the laboratory-scale model experiments for simulating TBM excavation were carried out to analyze the applicability of an electrical resistivity survey for predicting hazardous ground conditions ahead of a TBM tunnel face. The trend of electrical resistivity during TBM advance was experimentally evaluated under various hazardous ground conditions (fault zone, seawater intruded zone, soil to rock transition zone, and rock to soil transition zone) ahead of a tunnel face. In the course of the experiments, a scale-down rock ground was provided using granite blocks to simulate the rock TBM tunnelling. Based on the experimental data, the electrical resistivity tends to decrease as the tunnel approaches the fault zone. While the seawater intruded zone follows a similar trend with the fault zone, the resistivity value of the seawater intrude zone decreased significantly compared to that of the fault zone. In case of the soil-to-rock transition zone, the electrical resistivity increases as the TBM approaches the rock with relatively high electrical resistivity. Conversely, in case of the rock-to-soil transition zone, the opposite trend was observed. That is, electrical resistivity decreases as the tunnel face approaches the rock with relatively low electrical resistivity. The experiment results represent that hazardous ground conditions (fault zone, seawater intruded zone, soil-to-rock transition zone, rock-to-soil transition zone) can be efficiently predicted by utilizing an electrical resistivity survey during TBM tunnelling.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.99-112
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• 2021

This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.157-177
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• 2022

Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.52-64
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• 2023

As cities continue to develop rapidly, overcrowding, pollution, and urban sanitation problems arise, and the need to separate conflicting uses is emerging. From this perspective, there is no disagreement that urban land use should be planned. Therefore, all activities in land space must be predicted in advance and planned so that land use can be rationally established. This study used the constructed data to compare and analyze the use distribution characteristics of residential, commercial, and industrial areas in Busan Metropolitan City to identify the building area status, total floor area, and floor area ratio by use zone in districts and counties in Busan Metropolitan City. As a result, it was found that the residential area accounted for the largest proportion of the area by use zone at 51%, and that the residential area accounted for the largest proportion at 63% of the total floor area by use zone. And the analysis was conducted using a specialization coefficient that can identify regional characteristics based on land use composition ratio. Because it is difficult to determine the trend of the entire region just by counting the absolute value of the area, the area composition ratio was calculated and compared. Looking at the residential facilities among the specialization coefficients by use area, it is above 1.0 except for Gijang-gun, Sasang-gu, Saha-gu, and Jung-gu. Commercial facilities are over 1.0 except for Gijang-gun, Gangseo-gu, Nam-gu, Sasang-gu, and Saha-gu. Looking at industrial facilities, you can see that the industrial complex distribution area is Gangseo-gu (2.5), Gijang-gun (1.22), Sasang-gu (2.06), and Saha-gu (1.64). In addition, it was found that business facilities and educational welfare facilities were evenly distributed. Land use analysis was conducted through simulation of the current status of building heights according to each elevation in each use area and the height of buildings in each use area. In general, areas over 80m account for more than 43% of Busan City, showing that the distribution of use areas is designated in areas with high altitude due to the influence of topographical conditions.