• 산업공학
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.347-356
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• 2012

The acquisition cost of defense weapon system has been continuously increasing because of art-of-technology of it. This phenomenon requires efficiency and transparency in the weapon system acquisition process through cost estimation. Therefore cost estimation is very important to the government acquisition programs to support decisions about funding and to evaluate resource requirement as a key decision point. The Commercial parametric cost estimating models have been using extensively to obtain appropriate cost estimates in early acquisition phase. These models have many restrictions to ensure the cost estimating result in Korean defense environment because they are developed based on foreign R&D data. Also estimation results are different from Korean defense industry accounting system. So, some studies have been tried to develop a CER (Cost Estimation Relationship) based on the Korean historical data. However, there are some restrictions to improve the predictability and ensure the stability of the developed singular CERs which consider the following data characteristics individually. The the abnormal conditions of data that is multicollinearity, outlier and heteroscedasticity under rack of the number of observations. In this paper, a CER's Linear Combining Model is proposed to overcome those limitations which guarantee more accurate estimation (25.42% higher precision) than other singular CERs. At least, this study is meaningful as a first attempt to improve the predictability of CER with insufficient data. The methodology suggested in this study will be useful to develop a complex Korean version cost estimating model development in future.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.2672-2679
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• 2012

본 연구는 급성심근경색증 환자의 사망률 측정을 위한 중증도 보정 모형을 개발하여 의료의 질 평가에 필요한 기초자료를 제공하고자 수행되었다. 이를 위해서 질병관리본부의 2005-2008년 퇴원손상환자 699,701건의 자료를 분석하였다. Charlson Comorbidity Index 보정 방법을 이용한 경우와 새롭게 개발된 중증도 보정 모형의 예측력 및 적합도를 비교하기 위해 로지스틱 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 새롭게 개발된 모형에는 연령, 성, 입원경로, PCI 유무, CABG 유무, 동반질환 12가지 변수가 포함되었다. 분석결과 CCI를 이용한 중증도 보정 모형보다 새롭게 개발된 중증도 보정 사망 모형의 C 통계량 값이 0.796(95%CI=0.771-0.821)으로 더 높아 모형의 예측력이 더 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통하여 중증도 보정 방법에 따라 사망률, 유병률, 예측력에도 차이가 있음을 확인하였다. 향후에 이모형은 의료의 질 평가에 이용하고, 질환별로 임상적 의미와 특성, 모형의 통계적 적합성 등을 고려한 중증도 보정모형이 계속해서 개발되어야 할 것이다.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.87-91
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• 2005

Fahlman과 Lebiere의 캐스케이드-상관 (CC) 학습 알고리즘은 신경망의 구성 알고리즘에서 가장 널리 사용되는 것 중의 하나이며, 망에서 은닉 뉴런을 캐스케이드 형태로 취함으로서 매우 강력한 비선형을 표현할 수 있다. 비록 이 멱승이 유용할지 몰라도 대체로 문제를 푸는데는 강력한 비선형성이 요구되지 않으며 단점이 될 수도 있다. CC 알고리즘의 캐스케이드 구조 및 출력 뉴런의 가중치 훈련에 대한 변형된 형태인 3개 모델이 제안되고 경험적으로 비교되었다. 실험결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다: (1) 패턴분류에 있어서, 새로 추가되는 은닉 뉴런과 출력층간 연결강도만 훈련시키는 모델이 가장 좋은 예측력을 나타내었다; (2) 함수근사 문제에 있어서는 입력-출력 연결강도를 제거하고 시그모이드-선형 작동함수를 사용하는 모델이 CasCor 알고리즘보다 좋은 결과를 나타내었다.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.653-658
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• 2006

대기 대순환 모형인 GCPS를 이용하여 북서태평양에서의 태풍 활동의 계절 예측 가능성을 조사하였다. 1979년부터 2003년까지 각 해에 대해 해수면 온도 관측 자료를 사용하여 5개월간 초기 조건을 달리한 10개의 앙상블 멤버를 적분하였다. 모형은 발생 빈도의 평균적인 월변화 경향과 발생 분포를 관측과 유사하게 모의하였으나, 발생 빈도의 경년 변화는 신빙성 있게 예측하지 못하였다. 이는 관측과 모형간 태풍 발생 빈도와 ENSO의 상관성 차이에 인한 것으로 실제 태풍 발생 빈도와 ENSO가 뚜렷한 상관 관계를 갖지 않는 것과 달리, 모형에서는 엘니뇨 시기에 평년에 비해 많은 태풍이 발생하고 라니냐 시기에 평년에 비해 적은 태풍이 발생하는 경향을 보였기 때문이다. 반면에, 관측과 모형 모두 ENSO와의 상관 관계가 높게 나타난 태풍 발생 경도의 경우에는 모형이 발생 경도의 경년 변화를 관측과 유사하게 모의하였다.

• 대기
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2014

This study compared ensemble mean and probability forecasts of snow depth amount associated with winter storm over South Korea on 28 December 2012 at five operational forecast centers (CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, KMA, and UMKO). And cause of difference in predicted snow depth at each Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was investigated by using THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. This snowfall event occurred due to low pressure passing through South Sea of Korea. Amount of 6 hr accumulated snow depth was more than 10 cm over southern region of South Korea In this case study, ECMWF showed best prediction skill for the spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth. At first, ECMWF EPS has been consistently enhancing the indications present in ensemble mean snow depth forecasts from 7-day lead time. Secondly, its ensemble probabilities in excess of 2~5 cm/6 hour have been coincided with observation frequencies. And this snowfall case could be predicted from 5-day lead time by using 10-day lag ensemble mean 6 hr accumulated snow depth distribution. In addition, the cause of good performances at ECMWF EPS in predicted snow depth amounts was due to outstanding prediction ability of forming inversion layer with below $0^{\circ}C$ temperature in low level (below 850 hPa) according to $35^{\circ}N$ at 1-day lead time.

• 대한임상검사과학회지
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.12-16
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• 2014

Tetanus has high lethality and can cause serious complication, so it is very important to have a quick and exact checkup and treatment. In this study, we conducted a study about clinical characteristics and types of tetanus patients in Daegu Emergency Medical Center and we studied possibility of Tetanos Quick Stick (TQS) as a selective check up to treat tentanus by comparing the results of local checkup kit measured from tetanus quick stick developed to check up tetanus antibody titer and results measured from ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay). The result of the study showed that tetanus happens more to males, and by looking at season, tetanus happened most in summer (from June-August) as 19 cases (45.3%), and when patients come to the emergency medical center, the diagnosis name was electrolyte imbalance 14 cases (33.3%), peripheral nerve 11 cases (26.2%), Meningitis 8 cases (19.0%), drug addiction 7 cases (16.7%), and the patients who are diagnosed as tetanus at the beginning of hospitalization was 2 cases (4.8%). The result of TQS usefulness by comparing with ELISA, in TQS, 42 people was positive and 478 people was negative. it was positive when the result was over 0.1 IU/mL, 48 people was ELISA positive while 472 people was negative. TQS checkup has accuracy of 98%, sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 99.5%, positive predictability of 95.2% and negative predictability of 98.3%. The evaluation of current immunity statuses of tetanus patients is available for TQS checkup, and it has an advantage of preventing side effects coming from the injection of unnecessary vaccine and immunoglobulin, and it is thought that it can give help to emergency checkup and treatment at the beginning.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.265-274
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• 2003

The Pasquill-Gifford stability category is a very important scheme of the Gaussian type dispersion model defined the complex turbulence state of the atmosphere by A grade(very unstable) to F grade(very stable). But there has been made a point out that this stability category might decrease the predictability of the model because it was each covers a broad range of stability conditions, and that they were very site specific. The APSM (Air Pollution Simulation Model) was composed of the turbulent parameters, i.e. friction velocity(${\mu}$$\_$*/), convective velocity scale($\omega$$\_$*/) and Monin-Obukhov length scale(Ｌ) for the purpose of the performance increasing on the case of the unstable atmospheric conditions. And the PDF (Probability Density Function)model was used to express the vertical dispersion characteristics and the profile method was used to calculate the turbulent characteristics. And the performance assessment was validated between APSM and EPA regulatory models(TEM, ISCST), tracer experiment results. There were very good performance results simulated by APSM than that of TEM, ISCST in the short distance (<1415 m) from the source, but increase the simulation error(%) to stand off the source in others. And there were differences in comparison with the lateral dispersion coefficient($\sigma$$\_$y/) which was represent the horizontal dispersion characteristics of a air pollutant in the atmosphere. So the different calculation method of $\sigma$$\_$y/ which was extrapolated from a different tracer experiment data might decrease the simulation performance capability. In conclusion, the air pollution simulation model showed a good capability of predict the air pollution which was composed of the turbulent parameters compared with the results of TEM and ISCST for the unstable atmospheric conditions.

• 대기
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.93-104
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• 2017

The effect of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations on the short-range forecast in East Asia (EA) was investigated for the Northern Hemispheric (NH) summer and winter months, using the Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (FSO) method. For both periods, the contribution of radiosonde (TEMP) to the EA forecast was largest, followed by AIRCRAFT, AMSU-A, Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and the atmospheric motion vector of Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) or Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT). The contribution of AMSU-A sensor was largely originated from the NOAA 19, NOAA 18, and MetOp-A (NOAA 19 and 18) satellites in the NH summer (winter). The contribution of AMSU-A sensor on the MetOp-A (NOAA 18 and 19) satellites was large at 00 and 12 UTC (06 and 18 UTC) analysis times, which was associated with the scanning track of four satellites. The MetOp-A provided the radiance data over the Korea Peninsula in the morning (08:00~11:30 LST), which was important to the morning forecast. In the NH summer, the channel 5 observations on MetOp-A, NOAA 18, 19 along the seaside (along the ridge of the subtropical high) increased (decreased) the forecast error slightly (largely). In the NH winter, the channel 8 observations on NOAA 18 (NOAA 15 and MetOp-A) over the Eastern China (Tibetan Plateau) decreased (increased) the forecast error. The FSO provides useful information on the effect of each AMSU-A sensor on the EA forecasts, which leads guidance to better use of AMSU-A observations for EA regional numerical weather prediction.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• 제50권5호
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• pp.426-433
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• 2011

Objective : The Histoculture Drug Response Assay (HDRA), which measures chemosensitivity using minced tumor tissue on drug-soaked gelfoam, has been expected to overcome the limitations of in vitro chemosensitivity test in part. We analyzed interim results of HDRA in malignant gliomas to see if the test can deserve further clinical trials. Methods : Thirty-three patients with malignant gliomas were operated and their tumor samples were examined for the chemosensitivity to 10 chosen drugs by HDRA. The most sensitive chemotherapy regimen among those pre-established was chosen based on the number of sensitive drugs or total inhibition rate (IR) of the regimen. The response was evaluated by 3 month magnetic resonance image. Results : Among 13 patients who underwent total resection of the tumor, 12 showed no evidence of disease and one patient revealed progression. The response rate in 20 patients with residual tumors was 55% (3 complete and 8 partial responses). HDRA sensitivity at the cut-off value of more than one sensitive drug in the applied regimen showed a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 60% and predictability of 70%. Another cut-off value of >80% of total IR revealed a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 69%, and predictability of 80%. For 12 newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients, median progression-free survival of the HDRA sensitive group was 21 months, while that of the non-sensitive group was 6 months ($p$=0.07). Conclusion : HDRA for malignant glioma was inferred as a feasible method to predict the chemotherapy response. We are encouraged to launch phase 2 clinical trial with chemosensitivity on HDRA.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.267-273
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• 2009

Objectives : To compare the performance of three comorbidity measurements (Charlson comorbidity index, Elixhauser s comorbidity and comorbidity selection) with the effect of different comorbidity lookback periods when predicting in-hospital mortality for patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods : This was a retrospective study on patients aged 40 years and older who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention. To distinguish comorbidity from complications, the records of diagnosis were drawn from the National Health Insurance Database excluding diagnosis that admitted to the hospital. C-statistic values were used as measures for in comparing the predictability of comorbidity measures with lookback period, and a bootstrapping procedure with 1,000 replications was done to determine approximate 95% confidence interval. Results : Of the 61,815 patients included in this study, the mean age was 63.3 years (standard deviation: ${\pm}$10.2) and 64.8% of the population was male. Among them, 1,598 2.6%) had died in hospital. While the predictive ability of the Elixhauser's comorbidity and comorbidity selection was better than that of the Charlson comorbidity index, there was no significant difference among the three comorbidity measurements. Although the prevalence of comorbidity increased in 3 years of lookback periods, there was no significant improvement compared to 1 year of a lookback period. Conclusions : In a health outcome study for patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention using National Health Insurance Database, the Charlson comorbidity index was easy to apply without significant difference in predictability compared to the other methods. The one year of observation period was adequate to adjust the comorbidity. Further work to select adequate comorbidity measurements and lookback periods on other diseases and procedures are needed.