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Seasonal Predictability of Typhoon Activity Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Observed Sea Surface Temperature Data  

Han, Ji-Young (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Baik, Jong-Jin (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean earth science society / v.27, no.6, 2006 , pp. 653-658 More about this Journal
Abstract
The seasonal predictability of typhoon activity over the western North Pacific is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model GCPS. A ten-member ensemble with different initial conditions is integrated for five months using observed sea surface temperature data for each year from 1979 to 2003. It is shown that the monthly variation of occurrence frequency of simulated tropical storms and the distribution of tropical storm genesis location are similar to those of observed tropical storms, but the model is unable to reliably predict the interannual variation of the occurrence frequency of tropical storms. This is largely because the observed relationship between tropical storm occurrence frequency and ENSO is different from the simulated one. Unlike the observation, in which the tropical storm occurrence frequency has no relation to ENSO, the model has a tendency to generate more (less) tropical storms than normal during El Nino (La Nina). On the other hand, the interannual variation of the mean longitude of tropical storms that shows a close connection with ENSO in both observations and simulations is simulated similar to the observation.
Keywords
seasonal prediction; typhoon activity; general circulation model; ENSO;
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