• Title/Summary/Keyword: Precipitation method

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Research on flood risk forecast method using weather ensemble prediction system in urban region (앙상블 기상예측 자료를 활용한 도시지역의 홍수위험도 예측 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Youngje;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.10
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    • pp.753-761
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    • 2019
  • Localized heavy storm is one of the major causes of flood damage in urban regions. According to the recent disaster statistics in South Korea, the frequency of urban flood is increasing more frequently, and the scale is also increasing. However, localized heavy storm is difficult to predict, making it difficult for local government officials to deal with floods. This study aims to construct a Flood risk matrix (FRM) using ensemble weather prediction data and to assess its applicability as a means of reducing damage by securing time for such urban flood response. The FRM is a two-dimensional matrix of potential impacts (X-axis) representing flood risk and likelihood (Y-axis) representing the occurrence probability of dangerous weather events. To this end, a regional FRM was constructed using historical flood damage records and probability precipitation data for basic municipality in Busan and Daegu. Applicability of the regional FRMs was assessed by applying the LENS data of the Korea Meteorological Administration on past heavy rain events. As a result, it was analyzed that the flood risk could be predicted up to 3 days ago, and it would be helpful to reduce the damage by securing the flood response time in practice.

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Vugia - Thu Bon River Basin in Central of Viet Nam

  • Lan, Pham Thi Huong;Thai, Nguyen Canh;Quang, Tran Viet;Long, Ngo Le
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.233-233
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    • 2015
  • Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin is located in central Vietnam between Truong Son mountain range on the border with Lao in the west and the East Sea in the east. The basin occupies about 10,350 km2 or roughly 90% of the Quang Nam Province and includes Da Nang, a very large city with about 876,000 inhabitants. Total annual rainfall ranges from about 2,000 mm in central and downstream areas to more than 4,000 mm in southern mountainous areas. Rainfall during the monsoon season accounts for 65 to 80% of total annual rainfall. The highest amount of rainfall occurs in October and November which accounts for 40 to 50% of the annual rainfall. Rainfall in the dry season represents about 20 to 35% of the total annual rainfall. The low rainfall season usually occurs from February to April, accounting for only 3 to 5% of the total annual rainfall. The mean annual flow volume in the basin is $19.1{\times}109m 3$. Similar to the distribution of rainfall, annual flows are distinguished by two distinct seasons (the flood season and the low-flow season). The flood season commonly starts in the mid-September and ends in early January. Flows during the flood season account for 62 to 69% of the total annual water volume, while flows in the dry season comprise 22 to 38% of total annual run-off. The water volume gauged in November, the highest flow month, accounts for 26 to 31% of the total annual run-off while the driest period is April with flows of 2 to 3% of the total annual run-off. There are some hydropower projects in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin as the cascade of Song Bung 2, Song Bung 4, and Song Bung 5, the A Vuong project currently under construction, the Dak Mi 1 and Dak Mi 4 projects on the Khai tributary, and the Song Con project on the Con River. Both the Khai tributary and the Song Con join the Bung River downstream of SB5, although the Dak Mi 4 project involves an inter-basin diversion to Thu Bon. Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, data from the Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin in the central of Viet Nam were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff during the period of 1977-2010. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test were used to identify trend and step change point in the annual runoff. It was found that the basin had a significant increasing trend in annual runoff. The hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. This study quantitatively distinguishes the effects between climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

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Effect on the Formation of Fe3O4 with Ferrous Sulfate/Ferric Sulfate Molar Ratio and Precipitants (Fe3O4 생성에 미치는 황산제일철/황산제이철 몰비와 침전제의 영향)

  • Eom, Tae-Hyoung;Kim, Sam-Joong;An, Suk-Jin;Oh, Kyoung-Hwan;Suhr, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.157-162
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    • 2011
  • The effect of ferrous/ferric molar ratio and precipitants on the formation of nano size magnetite particle was investigated by coprecipitation method. Ferrous sulfate and ferric sulfate were used as iron sources and sodium hydroxide and ammonium hydroxide was used as a precipitant. Single phase magnetite was synthesized with all of experiment conditions (ferrous/ferric molar ratios and precipitants). Particle size was smaller, and particle size distribution was narrower when NaOH was used than $NH_4OH$ was used. The crystallinity and particle size was increased and narrower particle size distribution with increasing molar ratio ferrous/ferric sulfate with the same precipitant. Super paramagnetism could be obtained at all of experiment conditions. The highest saturation magnetization (72 emu/g) was obtained when the ferrous/ferric molar ratio was 2.5 and precipitant was used $NH_4OH$.

Effect of Cu content on Hot Tearing Susceptibility in Al-Si-Cu Aluminum Casting Alloy (Al-Si-Cu 알루미늄 주조 합금의 열간 균열 민감성에 미치는 Cu 함량의 영향)

  • Oh, Seung-Hwan;Munkhdelger, Chinbat;Kim, Heon-Joo
    • Journal of Korea Foundry Society
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.419-433
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    • 2021
  • Al-Si-Cu alloys benefit from the addition of copper for better hardness and strength through precipitation hardening, which results in remarkably strong alloys. However, the addition of copper expands the solidification range of Al-Si-Cu alloys, and due to this, these alloys become more prone to hot tearing, which is one of the most common and serious fracture phenomena encountered during solidification. The conventional evaluation method of the hot tearing properties of an alloy is a relative and qualitative analysis approach that does not provide quantitative data about this phenomenon. In the present study, the mold itself part of a device developed in Instone et al. was partially modified to obtain more reliable quantitative data pertaining to the hot tearing properties of an Al-Si-Cu casting alloy. To assess the influence of Cu element, four levels of Cu contents were tested (0.5, 1.0, 3.0, and 5.0 wt.%) in the Al-Si-Cu system alloy and the hot tearing properties were evaluated in each case. As the Cu content was increased, the hot tearing strength decreased to 2.26, 1.53, 1.18, and 1.04 MPa, respectively. At the moment hot tearing occurred, the corresponding solid fraction and solidification rate decreased at the same temperature due to the increase in the solid-liquid coexistence range as the Cu content increased. The morphology of the fracture surfaces was changed from dendrites to dendrites covered with residual liquid, and CuAl2 phases were observed in the vicinity of hot tearing.

A correlation analysis between state variables of rainfall-runoff model and hydrometeorological variables (강우-유출 모형의 상태변수와 수문기상변량과의 상관성 분석)

  • Shim, Eunjeung;Uranchimeg, Sumiya;Lee, Yearin;Moon, Young-Il;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1295-1304
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    • 2021
  • For the efficient use and management of water resources, a reliable rainfall-runoff analysis is necessary. Still, continuous hydrological data and rainfall-runoff data are insufficient to secure through measurements and models. In particular, as part of the reasonable improvement of a rainfall-runoff model in the case of an ungauged watershed, regionalization is being used to transfer the parameters necessary for the model application to the ungauged watershed. In this study, the GR4J model was selected, and the SCEM-UA method was used to optimize parameters. The rainfall-runoff model for the analysis of the correlation between watershed characteristics and parameters obtained through the model was regionalized by the Copula function, and rainfall-runoff analysis with the regionalized parameters was performed on the ungauged watershed. In the process, the intermediate state variables of the rainfall-runoff model were extracted, and the correlation analysis between water level and the ground water level was investigated. Furthermore, in the process of rainfall-runoff analysis, the Standardized State variable Drought Index (SSDI) was calculated by calculating and indexing the state variables of the GR4J model. and the calculated SSDI was compared with the standardized Precipitation index (SPI), and the hydrological suitability evaluation of the drought index was performed to confirm the possibility of drought monitoring and application in the ungauged watershed.

Variation of Seasonal Groundwater Recharge Analyzed Using Landsat-8 OLI Data and a CART Algorithm (CART알고리즘과 Landsat-8 위성영상 분석을 통한 계절별 지하수함양량 변화)

  • Park, Seunghyuk;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.395-432
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    • 2021
  • Groundwater recharge rates vary widely by location and with time. They are difficult to measure directly and are thus often estimated using simulations. This study employed frequency and regression analysis and a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm in a machine learning method to estimate groundwater recharge. CART algorithms are considered for the distribution of precipitation by subbasin (PCP), geomorphological data, indices of the relationship between vegetation and landuse, and soil type. The considered geomorphological data were digital elevaion model (DEM), surface slope (SLOP), surface aspect (ASPT), and indices were the perpendicular vegetation index (PVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference tillage index (NDTI), normalized difference residue index (NDRI). The spatio-temperal distribution of groundwater recharge in the SWAT-MOD-FLOW program, was classified as group 4, run in R, sampled for random and a model trained its groundwater recharge was predicted by CART condidering modified PVI, NDVI, NDTI, NDRI, PCP, and geomorphological data. To assess inter-rater reliability for group 4 groundwater recharge, the Kappa coefficient and overall accuracy and confusion matrix using K-fold cross-validation were calculated. The model obtained a Kappa coefficient of 0.3-0.6 and an overall accuracy of 0.5-0.7, indicating that the proposed model for estimating groundwater recharge with respect to soil type and vegetation cover is quite reliable.

Preparation and Characterization of Planar-type Artificial Calamine Powder with a High Aspect Ratio for the Application to Ultraviolet and Blue Band Protection Cosmetics (자외선 및 블루영역 차단 화장품 응용을 위한 박막 판형 인공 칼라민 소재의 합성 및 특성 평가 연구)

  • Lee, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Gun-Sub;Jo, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Da-Hee;Yu, Jae-Hoon;Gwack, Ji-Yoo;Lee, Hee-Chul
    • Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we have prepared pure planar-type ZnO and calamine powder containing both ZnO and Fe2O3 components as a raw material for cosmetics with UV and blue band blocking functions. The planar-type ZnO ceramic powder having a high aspect ratio in the range of 20:1 to 50:1 was synthesized by precipitation method in a zinc acetate and sodium citrate mixed solution with the electrolyte obtained by power generation with a zinc-air battery. The content of Fe2O3 in the artificial calamine ceramic powder could be increased by increasing the amount of iron chloride solution added, and in this case, some of the blue region of visible light and ultraviolet light were remarkably absorbed. When potassium acetate was added, the decomposition of the Zn(OH)42- anion in the solution was promoted to facilitate the growth of ZnO crystal in the form of a barrier wall in the vertical direction on the (0001) plane, which could increase UV absorption by providing more opportunities. By controlling the amount of iron chloride solution and potassium acetate solution added, the composition and shape of the thin film plate-shaped artificial calamine ceramic powder can be optimized, and when applied to cosmetic formulations, the light transmittance of the blue region can be greatly reduced.

Distribution Analysis of Land Surface Temperature about Seoul Using Landsat 8 Satellite Images and AWS Data (Landsat 8 위성영상과 AWS 데이터를 이용한 서울특별시의 지표면 온도 분포 분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Sin;Oh, Myoung-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.434-439
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    • 2019
  • Recently, interest in urban temperature change and ground surface temperature change has been increasing due to weather phenomenon due to global warming, heat island phenomenon caused by urbanization in urban areas. In Korea, weather data such as temperature and precipitation have been collected since 1904. In recent years, there are 96 ASOS stations and 494 AWS weather observation stations. However, in the case of terrestrial networks, terrestrial meteorological data except measurement points are predicted through interpolation because they provide point data for each installation point. In this study, to improve the resolution of ground surface temperature measurement, the surface temperature using satellite image was calculated and its applicability was analyzed. For this purpose, the satellite images of Landsat 8 OLI TIRS were obtained for Seoul Metropolitan City by seasons and transformed to surface temperature by applying NASA equation to the thermal bands. The ground measurement data was based on the temperature data measured by AWS. Since the AWS temperature data is station based point data, interpolation is performed by Kriging interpolation method for comparison with Landsat image. As a result of comparing the satellite image base surface temperature with the AWS temperature data, the temperature difference according to the season was calculated as fall, winter, summer, based on the RMSE value, Spring, in order of applicability of Landsat satellite image. The use of that attribute and AWS support starts at $2.11^{\circ}C$ and RMSE ${\pm}3.84^{\circ}C$, which reflects information from the extended NASA.

An analysis of runoff characteristic by using soil moisture in Sulma basin (설마천 연구지역에서의 토양수분량을 활용한 유출 발생 특성분석)

  • Kim, Kiyoung;Lee, Yongjun;Jung, Sungwon;Lee, Yeongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.9
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    • pp.615-626
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    • 2019
  • Soil moisture and runoff have very close relationship. Especially the water retention capacity and drainage characteristics of the soil are determined by various factors of the soil. In this study, a total of 40 rainfall events were identified from the entire rainfall events of Sulma basin in 2016 and 2017. For each selected events, the constant-K method was used to separate direct runoff and baseflow from total flow and calculate the runoff coefficient which shows positive exponential curve with Antecedent Soil Moisture (ASM). In addition to that, the threshold of soil moisture was determined at the point where the runoff coefficient starts increasing dramatically. The threshold of soil moisture shows great correlation with runoff and depth to water table. It was founded that not only ASM but also various factors, such as Initial Soil Moisture (ISM), storage capacity of soil and precipitation, affect the results of runoff response. Furthermore, wet condition and dry condition are separated by ASM threshold and the start and peak response are analyzed. And the results show that the response under wet condition occurred more quickly than that of dry condition. In most events occurred in dry condition, factors reached peak in order of soil moisture, depth to water table and runoff. However, in wet condition, they reached peak in order of depth to water table, runoff and soil moisture. These results will help identify the interaction among factors which affect the runoff, and it will help establish the relationship between various soil conditions and runoff.

A method in calculation watershed precipitation using long-term probabilistic forecasts for water management (확률장기예보 물관리 활용을 위한 유역강수량 산정 방법 연구)

  • Kang, Noel;Kang, Jaewon;Hwang, Jin;Suh, Ae-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.526-526
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    • 2015
  • 우리나라는 국토의 대부분이 산악으로 이루어진 지형학적 특성과 여름철에 비가 집중된다는 기상학적 요인으로 인해 물관리가 어려운 편이다. 최근에는 기후변화로 인한 이상 기상 현상으로 돌발성 호우와 가뭄 등의 발생 빈도가 증대되면서 용수공급 관리는 더욱 더 어려움을 겪고 있다. 이러한 가운데 장기 기상정보는 안정적인 이수기 용수 공급을 위한 댐 수위 운영 및 홍수기 운영 목표 수위 계획 수립 등에 활용도가 매우 높다. 최근 기상청은 2014년 6월 이후부터 기존의 장기예보를 확률 예보 방식으로 변경하면서 기온과 강수량에 대하여 평년 대비 높음(많음), 비슷, 낮음(적음)으로 단순 예보하는 기존의 방식에서 발생가능성에 대해 카테고리 별로 확률(%)을 발표하고 있다. 기후변화의 불확실성이 증가하는 가운데 개정된 새로운 형태의 확률장기예보를 물관리에 정량적으로 적용하여 보다 정확도 높은 중장기 물관리 체계가 구축되어야 할 것이다. 본 연구는 현재 기상청에서 제공하는 확률장기예보를 실제 댐 운영에 적용하기 위한 연구로서 과거 자료와 확률장기예보를 조합하여 2014년 6월~2015년 2월의 유역 강수량의 확률 분포를 전망하였다. 대상 지역은 안동댐 유역으로 과거 자료는 최근린법에 기초한 기상청 산하 관측소인 안동, 태백, 봉화, 영주의 1986~2013년의 월 자료를 사용하였고, Thissen법을 근거로 유역 강수량을 계산하였다. 확률장기예보는 안동댐 유역을 포함하는 대구 경북지역을 대상으로 한 동일한 기간의 예보 자료를 활용하였다. 과거 강수량은 각 월별로 적합도 검정 후 Gamma분포를 채택하였으며 이를 기반으로 예보의 카테고리 별 기준값을 산정한 후 장기예보의 확률정보를 조합하여 강수량의 확률 분포를 작성하였다. 이를 2014년 6월~2015년 2월의 실제 강수량과 비교한 결과 2014년 11월과 2015년 1월 경우 가장 큰 확률의 카테고리 강수 범위 안에 실제 강수량이 포함되었으나 나머지 월에서는 실제 값과 카테고리 확률 간에 상이한 결과를 보였다. 본 연구는 예보 자료 수의 제한 및 안동댐과 예보 구역의 지역 차에 의한 자료 차이 등이 배제되어 있기 때문에 참고 자료로만 활용 될 수 있을 것이라고 판단되며, 확률장기예보 정보를 이용하여 유역 강수량의 확률 분포를 산정함으로서 물관리 부문에서 예보의 정량적 적용 가능성을 최초로 제시했다는 것에 의의가 있다. 추후 기후 모델 특성과 확률장기예보 산출 기법 등을 보다 심도 깊게 고려하여 정확도 개선에 대한 연구가 보완되어야 할 것으로 판단된다.

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