• Title/Summary/Keyword: Precipitation event

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Regional Frequency Analysis for Future Precipitation from RCP Scenarios (대표농도경로 시나리오에 의한 미래 강수량의 지역빈도해석)

  • Kim, Duck Hwan;Hong, Seung Jin;Choi, Chang Hyun;Han, Dae Gun;Lee, So Jong;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2015
  • Variability of precipitation pattern and intensity are increasing due to the urbanization and industrialization which induce increasing impervious area and the climate change. Therefore, more severe urban inundation and flood damage will be occurred by localized heavy precipitation event in the future. In this study, we analyze the future frequency based precipitation under climate change based on the regional frequency analysis. The observed precipitation data from 58 stations provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) are collected and the data period is more than 30 years. Then the frequency based precipitation for the observed data by regional frequency analysis are estimated. In order to remove the bias from the simulated precipitation by RCP scenarios, the quantile mapping method and outlier test are used. The regional frequency analysis using L-moment method(Hosking and Wallis, 1997) is performed and the future frequency based precipitation for 80, 100, and 200 years of return period are estimated. As a result, future frequency based precipitation in South Korea will be increased by 25 to 27 percent. Especially the result for Jeju Island shows that the increasing rate will be higher than other areas. Severe heavy precipitation could be more and more frequently occurred in the future due to the climate change and the runoff characteristics will be also changed by urbanization, industrialization, and climate change. Therefore, we need prepare flood prevention measures for our flood safety in the future.

Characterization of the temporal variability of seasonal precipitation using hourly precipitation data (시강우 자료를 이용한 계절별 강수특성 변화분석)

  • Kim, Gwang-Seob;Cho, Hyun-Gon;Yi, Jae-Eung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.399-399
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    • 2011
  • 최근 한반도와 세계 곳곳에서 기후변화로 야기되는 이상기후에 의한 피해가 늘고 있으며, 그 피해 규모와 빈도 또한 점점 증가하는 추세이다. 이러한 추세 속에서 인적, 물적 피해를 최소화하기 위해 세계 각국이 기후변화에 대한 정확한 예측을 위한 많은 노력과 연구가 진행되고 있다. 지금까지 수행된 연구들은 일반적으로 강수특성의 변화를 파악하기 위해서 연 및 월 최대 강우량, 지속시간별 최대 강우량 등 총량적 개념을 이용한 연구가 대부분이다. 그러나 이는 실제 강수사상의 구조적 변화를 파악하는 데 있어서 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 전국 기상관측소 59개의 지점에 대한 1961년-2009년까지의 시계열 강수자료를 이용하여 지점 및 유역별 강수사상의 number of rain even, duration, intensity, quantity 시간분포 구조의 변화를 파악하고자 하였다. 분석결과 number of rain event와 total quantity는 전국적으로 증가 하였으며 total rain hour는 남해안 지역을 제외한 전국에서 증가 하는 것으로 분석 되었다. 결과를 바탕으로 강수변화의 패턴과 추세를 보다 정확하게 파악하고 미래강수 예측에 유용한 자료로 활용될 것으로 사료된다.

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Influence of Precipitation Characteristic on the Rainfall Water Quality (강우특성이 우수수질에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.805-811
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to invesitigate relationship between rainfall water quality and precipitation characteristic during the accumulated rainfall and rainless period. As the results of the analysis, rainfall water quality was improved in the rainfall duration. Correlation coefficients between rainwater quality and accumulated rainfall were $0.88{\sim}0.99$ except $Cl^-$. and that between rainless period and initial rainfall water quality were $0.62{\sim}0.75$. During the Asian dust event, concentration of the turbidity, BOD and electric conductivity were high. Therefore, it shows that the rainfall water quality is effected by atmospheric conditions before the rainfall events.

Decision-Making based on Uncertain Information in a Beer Distribution Game U sing the Taguchi Method (맥주매송게임에서 다구찌 방법에 의한 불확실 정보 기반 의사결정 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.162-168
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    • 2010
  • Information is known to be a key element for the successful operation of a supply chain, which is required of the efficient ordering strategies and accurate predictions of demands. This study proposes a method to effectively utilize the meteorological forecast information in order to make decisions about ordering and prediction of demands by using the Taguchi experimental design. It is supposed that each echelon in a supply chain determines the order quantity with the prediction of precipitation in the next day based on probability forecast information. The precipitation event is predicted when the probability of the precipitation exceeds a chosen threshold. Accordingly, the choice of the threshold affect the performances of a supply chain. The Taguchi method is adopted to deduce a set of thresholds for echelons which is least sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, such as variability of demand distributions and production periods. A simulation of the beer distribution game was conducted to show that the set of thresholds found by the Taguchi method can reduce the cumulative chain cost, which consists of inventory and backlog costs.

IDENTIFICATION OF POSSIBLE MERCURY SOURCES AND ESTIMATION OF MERCURY WET DEPOSITION FLUX IN LAKE ONTARIO FROM LAKE ONTARIO ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION STUDY (LOADS)

  • Han, Young-Ji
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.306-315
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    • 2005
  • Total gas phase mercury (TGM) concentrations and event wet-only precipitation for Hg were collected for nine months (from April, 2002 to Dec., 2002) at Sterling, NY on the shoreline of Lake Ontario. TGM concentrations measured in this study ($3.02{\pm}2.14\;ng/m^3$) were in somewhat high range compared to other background sites. Using simplified quantitative transport bias analysis (SQTBA) possible sources affecting high Hg concentration in Sterling was identified, and they are coal-fired power plants located in southern NY and Pennsylvania. Wet deposition measured at Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) sites including Pt. Petre and Egbert, ON were compared with data obtained at the Sterling to estimate the total mercury wet deposition flux to Lake Ontario. The wet deposition flux was calculated to be the highest at the Sterling site ($7.94\;{\mu}g/m^2$ from April, 2002 to Dec. 2002) and the lowest at the Egbert ($3.92\;{\mu}g/m^2$), due to the both the difference in precipitation depth and Hg concentration in the precipitation. The deposition measured at the Sterling site is similar to Lake Michigan deposition of $6-14\;{\mu}g/m^2$ (converted for ninth months) measured for Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study (LMMBS).

Discharge Characteristics of the Chusan Spring, Ulleung Island (울릉도 추산용출소의 용출 특성)

  • Cho, Byong-Wook;Lee, Byeong-Dae
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2018
  • The source of Chusan Spring water in the Ulleungdo is the precipitation in the Nari caldera basin, which permeates in the Trachitic pumice and tuff area and moves downward, outflowing at the lithologic boundary between the trachyte and Nari tuff. It is known that the discharge rate of the Chusan Spring is large enough to be used for the small hydroelectric power generation, but the exact discharge rate and hydrogeologic characteristics have not been known. The discharge rates of the Spring were measured 11 times, which ranged from $15,220m^3/d$ to $36,278m^3/d$. The discharge rates, measured by the automatic level recorder, for two-year period, were $20,000{\sim}38,000m^3/d$. The variation of discharge rates did not coincide with rainfall event, but showed daily increases of $3,000{\sim}5,000m^3/d$. The annual discharge rate excluding the evapotranspiration and the surrounding stream discharge corresponded to 70.6% of the annual precipitation of the recharge area. Therefore, meteorological observations at the Nari basin, rather than the Ulleung-do meteorological station, are more appropriate to properly interpret the discharge characteristics of the Chusam Spring and the recharge rate of the basin.

Surface soil moisture memory using stored precipitation fraction in the Korean peninsula (토양 내 저장 강수율을 활용한 국내 표층 토양수분 메모리 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kiyoung;Lee, Seulchan;Lee, Yongjun;Yeon, Minho;Lee, Giha;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2022
  • The concept of soil moisture memory was used as a method for quantifying the function of soil to control water flow, which evaluates the average residence time of precipitation. In order to characterize the soil moisture memory, a new measurement index called stored precipitation fraction (Fp(f)) was used by tracking the increments in soil moisture by the precipitation event. In this study, the temporal and spatial distribution of soil moisture memory was evaluated along with the slope and soil characteristics of the surface (0~5 cm) soil by using satellite- and model-based precipitation and soil moisture in the Korean peninsula, from 2019 to 2020. The spatial deviation of the soil moisture memory was large as the stored precipitation fraction in the soil decreased preferentially along the mountain range at the beginning (after 3 hours), and the deviation decreased overall after 24 hours. The stored precipitation fraction in the soil clearly decreased as the slope increased, and the effect of drainage of water in the soil according to the composition ratio of the soil particle size was also shown. In addition, average soil moisture contributed to the increase and decrease of hydraulic conductivity, and the rate of rainfall transfer to the depths affected the stored precipitation fraction. It is expected that the results of this study will greatly contribute in clarifying the relationship between soil moisture memory and surface characteristics (slope, soil characteristics) and understanding spatio-temporal variation of soil moisture.

An Evaluation of Extreme Precipitation based on Local Downpour using Empirical Simulation Technique (Empirical Simulation Technique 기법을 이용한 집중호우의 극한강우 평가)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 2009
  • The occurrence causes of the extreme rainfall to happen in Korea can be distinguished with the typhoons and local downpours. The typhoon events attacked irregularly to induce the heavy rainfall, and the local downpour events mean a seasonal rain front and a local rainfall. Almost every year, the typhoons and local downpours that induced a heavy precipitation be generated extreme disasters like a flooding. Consequently, in this research, There were distinguished the causes of heavy rainfall events with the typhoons and the local downpours at Korea. Also, probability precipitation was computed according to the causes of the local downpour events. An evaluation of local downpours can be used for analysis of heavy rainfall event in short period like a flash flood. The methods of calculation of probability precipitation used the parametric frequency analysis and the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST). The correlation analysis was computed between annual maximum precipitation by local downpour events and sea surface temperature, moisture index for composition of input vectors. At the results of correlation analysis, there were revealed that the relations closely between annual maximum precipitation and sea surface temperature. Also, probability precipitation using EST are bigger than probability precipitation of frequency analysis on west-middle areas in Korea. Therefore, region of west-middle in Korea should prepare the extreme precipitation by local downpour events.

Impact of Topographic Forcing and Variation of Lower-level Jet on Local Precipitation in Southeast Region of Korean Peninsula (지형 강제력과 하층제트 변화가 한반도 남동 지역 국지 강수에 미치는 영향 분석 연구)

  • Chae, Da Eun;Kim, Eun Ji;Kim, Ji Seon;Lee, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2020
  • Recently, a heavy rainfall with high spatial variation occurred frequently in the Korean Peninsula. The meteorological event that occurred in Busan on 3 May 2016 is characterized by heavy rain in a limited area. In order to clarify the reason of large spatial variation associated with mountain height and location of low level jet, several numerical experiments were carried out using the dynamic meteorological Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In this case study, the raised topography of Mount Geumjeong increased a barrier effect and air uplifting due to topographic forcing on the windward side. As a result, wind speed reduced and precipitation increased. In contrast, on the downwind side, the wind speed was slightly faster and since the total amount of water vapor is limited, the precipitation on the downwind side reduced. Numerical experiments on shifting the location of the lower jet demonstrated that if the lower jet is close to the mountain, its core becomes higher due to the effect of friction. Additionally, the water vapor convergence around the mountain increased and eventually the precipitation also increased in the area near the mountain. Hence, the location information of the lower jet is an important factor for accurately predicting precipitation.

Assessment of the Extreme 2014~2015 Drought Events in North Korea Using Weekly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (주단위 표준강수증발산지수를 활용한 2014~2015년 북한의 극한 가뭄 평가)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Hong, Eun-Mi;Choi, Jin-Yong;Kim, Taegon;Hayes, Michael J.;Svoboda, Mark D.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.4
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2017
  • North Korea is one of the high vulnerable countries facing the threat of natural disaster and has experienced more frequent disasters in recent years. These disasters have significantly led to food shortages and large reductions in crop yields. In 2015, both North Korean officials and international agencies had identified the extreme drought event, the worst in one hundred years according to the North Korean government. The objective of this study was an assessment of the extreme drought events in 2014~2015, and to apply climatic drought indices for drought monitoring in North Korea. Characteristics of the extreme drought in North Korea are examined by using the weekly-based Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The drought characteristics illustrated by the SPEI results are compared with a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) results and drought impact information to understand how these indices can explain the drought conditions within the country. These results demonstrated that the SPEI could be an effective tool to provide improved spatial and temporal drought conditions to inform management decisions for drought policy.