• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.476-488
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• 2013

Refractory Dissolved Organic Carbon (RDOC) is becoming more important index on management of water quality, water regulation as well as ecosystem management. We analyzed trends of RDOC using elasticity in the Nakdong river basin. If climate elasticity of streamflow is positive, change of streamflow can be defined by the proportional change in a climatic variable such as precipitation and temperature. Elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and elasticity of RDOC to precipitation were estimated in the present, and we also analyzed the variation of elasticity in the future using climate change scenarios, RCP 8.5/ 4.5. Mean streamflow elasticity is 1.655, and mean RDOC elasticity is 1.983. RDOC is more sensitive to precipitation change than streamflow. The variation of RDOC is directly proportion to precipitation in all scenarios, but the Load of RDOC is dependent on precipitation as well as others. There is a need for additional correlation analysis between RDOC and other factors for accurate prediction.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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• 제7권
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• pp.87-106
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• 1996

A precipitation change scenario in Korea due to atmospheric $ doubling has been provided with a mixed method (Rebinson and Finkelstein, 1991) based on the simulated precipitation data by three GCM(CCC, UI, and GFDL GCM) experiments. Through the analysis the precipitation change by atmospheric $ doubing can be summarized as follows : Korea may have more precipitation as much as 25mm/yr during spring season and more less 50 mm/yr during summer and autumn, respectively. In the contrary Korea may have less rainfall as much as 13 mm/yr during winter. In terms of percentage with respect to current climatological value of precipitation Korea may have more rain as much as 10%, 13% and 24%, respectively, for spring, summer and autumn than current climate. However, Korea may have less precipitation during winter than current climatological average.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.497-500
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• 2008

The typhoon is provoking huge damage attacking in Korea periodically every year. Therefore, in this study, the analysis of 24 hourly maximum precipitation change related to typhoon events achieved based on Mann-Whitney U test, T test, Modified T test, Sign test, F test, and Modified F test. At the results, the 24 hourly maximum precipitation was expose that average and standard deviation are increasing recently. Therefore, hydorlogical structures have to be prepared of extreme rainfall events by typhoons.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.223-231
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• 2015

Although a considerable part of climate change can be explained by temperature change, hydrological change such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff impact more on society. For the ascertain a hydrological change in agriculture sector, this study estimate evapotranspiration of cropland in the Korean peninsula, and then to assess the drought severity in the past 30 years through the estimated potential evapotranspiration and observed precipitation. The potential evapotranspiration is estimated by EPIC model and Penman-Monteith method and the drought severity in cropland of the Korean peninsula is assessed using Normalized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NPEI) based on the difference in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In North Korea, the estimated evapotranspiration tends to increase even though a significant change is not found due to the change of climate. Although a time series change in drought severity in the past 30 years is not pronounced, a deviation by year and difference between South and North Korea is certain. One reason of this is difference in precipitation and evapotranspiration change according to the latitude. The result including expansion of facilities for water management in North Korea can be used for agricultural decision making, as well as base data of climate change adaptation.

• 물과 미래
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.143-157
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• 1995

대기중 $CO_2$ 배증에 따른 한반도 강수량 변화가 3개 GCM(CCC, UI와 GFDL)의 기후변화 실험에 따른 광역적 강수변동 자료로부터 Robinson과 Finkelstein이 제시한 혼합적 방법에 의하여 계산되었다. 계산 결과 도출된 대기중 CO$ 배증에 따라 예상되는 강수량 변화는 다음과 같다. 봄철에 예상되는 강수량 증가는 약 25mm/yr정도이며 여름철과 가을철의 강수량 증가는 50mm/yr를 상회하였다. 그러나 겨울철에는 13mm/yr 감소하였다. 현 강수량에 대한 백분율로 보면 봄철, 여름철과 가을철에 각각 10%, 13%와 24%의 강수량 증가를 보인 반면에 겨울철에는 현재보다 다소 감소할 것이 예상된다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.738-739
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• 2015

The main objective of this study, "Spatial Downscaling of Precipitation from GCMs for Assessing Climate Change over Han River and Imjin River Watersheds", is to carry out over Han River and Imjin River watersheds. To this end, a statistical regression method with MOS (Model Output Statistics) corrections at every downscaling step was developed and applied for downscaling the spatially-coarse Global Climate Model Projections (GCMPs) from CCSM3 and CSIRO with respect to precipitation into 0.1 degree (about 11 km) spatial grid over study regions. The spatially archived hydro-climate data sets such as Willmott, GsMap and APHRODITE datasets were used for MOS corrections by means of monthly climatology between observations and downscaled values. Precipitation values downscaled in this study were validated against ground observations and then future climate simulation results on precipitation were evaluated for the projections.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.424-433
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• 2021

최근의 기후변화는 지구촌 곳곳에 이상기상 현상을 발생시키며, 사회 여러 분야에서 많은 피해를 발생시키고 있다. 특히 최근에는 호우 또는 가뭄 등 강수량의 많고 적음으로 인한 피해가 많이 보고되고 있는데, 본 연구에서는 실제로 우리나라에서 발생하고 있는 강수량의 발생 패턴을 조사하여 과거에서 현재까지 어떤 변화를 보이는지 분석해보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 선행연구에서 기후변화에 따른 강수량의 시간적 특성 비교를 위해 제시한 강수지표 중 일부를 선정하였다. 지점별 시간에 따른 변화를 분석하기 위하여 국내 기상청 ASOS 관측소 10개 지점을 지역분포를 고려하여 선정하였으며, 지점별로 1951년부터 2020년까지의 일적산강수량을 수집하였다. 또한 산악강수모형을 이용하여 1981년부터 2020년까지의 전국 고해상도의 일별 강수분포도를 제작하여 분석에 활용하였다. 시간에 따른 분석결과 연적산강수량의 경우 과거에서 현재로 이동하면서 증가 양상을 보였다. 강수일수의 경우 대부분의 관측지점에서 감소하는 추세를 보였으며, 호우일수의 경우는 반대로 증가하는 경향을 보였다. 공간적인 변화의 경우 강수일수와 호우일수 모두 과거에 비해 감소되는 지역이 많았으며, 그 특징은 중부지방에서 두드러지게 나타났다. 결과적으로 우리나라의 강수량의 패턴은 짧아진 강수일수, 늘어난 일별 강수량으로의 변화로 정리할 수 있다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.615-631
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• 2012

This study provides an evaluation for capability of Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS) on future regional scale climate projection. Temperature and precipitation are compared between ground-level observation data and results of regional models (MM5) for the past 30 years over the Korean peninsula. The ICAMS successfully simulates the local-scale spatial/seasonal variation of the temperature and precipitation. The probability distribution of simulated daily mean and minimum temperature agree well with the observed patterns and trends, although mean temperature shows a little cold bias about $1^{\circ}C$ compared to observations. It seems that a systematic cold bias is mostly due to an underestimation of maximum temperature. In the case of precipitation, the rainfall in winter and light rainfall are remarkably simulated well, but summer precipitation is underestimated in the heavy rainfall phenomena of exceeding 20 mm/day. The ICAMS shows a tendency to overestimate the number of washout days about 7%. Those results of this study indicate that the performance of ICAMS is reasonable regarding to air quality predication over the Korean peninsula.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2011년도 학술발표회
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• pp.252-252
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• 2011

Rainfall-runoff models are calibrated and validated by using a same data set such as observations. The past climate change effects the present rainfall pattern and also will effect on the future. To predict rainfall-runoff more preciously we have to consider the climate change pattern in the past, present and the future time. Thus, in this study, the climate change represents changes in mean precipitation and standard deviation in different patterns. In some river basins, there is no enough length of data for the analysis. Therefore, we have to generate the synthetic data using proper distribution for calculation of precipitation based on the observed data. In this study, Kajiyama model is used to analyze the runoff in the dry and the wet period, separately. Mean and standard deviation are used for generating precipitation from the gamma distribution. Twenty hypothetical scenarios are considered to show the climate change conditions. The mean precipitation are changed by -20%, -10%, 0%, +10% and +20% for the data generation with keeping the standard deviation constant in the wet and the dry period respectively. Similarly, the standard deviations of precipitation are changed by -20%, -10%, 0%, +10% and +20% keeping the mean value of precipitation constant for the wet and the dry period sequentially. In the wet period, when the standard deviation value varies then the mean NSE ratio is more fluctuate rather than the dry period. On the other hand, the mean NSE ratio in some extent is more fluctuate in the wet period and sometimes in the dry period, if the mean value of precipitation varies while keeping the standard deviation constant.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.595-607
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 기상청 산하 30년 이상의 관측치를 갖고 있는 기상관측소 58개 지점을 대상으로, 과거 관측자료 및 대표 농도경로(RCP) 시나리오에 의한 강수량 자료를 이용하여 극치통계분석 및 확률강수량을 산정하였다. 기후변화 시나리오 자료의 편의를 제거하기 위하여 분위사상법(Quantile Mapping) 및 이상치 검정을 실시하였다. 이를 통해 보정된 시나리오 값을 이용하여 ETCCDI 극한지수 중에서 강수관련 지수를 이용한 극치통계분석을 실시하였고, 빈도해석을 통한 미래 목표기간별 확률강수량의 변화율을 살펴보았다. 미래 기후변화에 따른 2090년대에는 한반도 전체에서 비가 오지 않는 날은 증가하였으며, 하루에 80mm 이상 비가 오는 집중호우가 발생하는 기간 또한 3~7% 증가하는 경향을 나타낼 것으로 분석되었다. 즉, 미래의 강수 특성은 현재에 비해서 가뭄 및 집중호우 또는 폭우와 같은 형태로 발생할 확률이 증가한다는 의미로 해석할 수 있다. 기후변화에 따른 미래 확률강수량은 지속시간 24hr의 경우 현재에 대비하여 80년 빈도는 17.7%, 100년 빈도는 18.2%, 200년 빈도는 19.6% 이상 증가 하는 것으로 분석되었다. 미래 기후변화로 인한 강수량의 증가와 도시화에 따른 유출특성 변화로 자연재해 발생 및 피해는 더욱 증가할 것으로 예측된다. 이에, 본 연구에서 제시한 극치통계분석 및 확률강수량 자료는 미래 홍수 안전도 및 방재시설물 설계기준을 수립하는데 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.