• Title/Summary/Keyword: Potential scenarios

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Analysis of Watershed Runoff and Sediment Characteristics due to Spatio-Temporal Change in Land Uses Using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 시.공간적 토지 이용변화에 따른 유량 및 유사량 특성분석)

  • Shin, Yong-Chul;Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Kim, Ki-Sung;Choi, Joong-Dae
    • KCID journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.50-56
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess spatiotemporal effects on watershed runoff and sediment characteristics due to land uses changes from 1999 to 2002 at the small watershed, located in Chuncheon-si, Gangwon province. The annual average flow rate of Scenario I (long-term simulation using land use of 1990), II (long-term simulation using land use of 1996), III(long-term simulation using land use of 200) and IV(simulation using land use of 1990, 1995, and 2000) in long-term simulation) using the SWAT model were 29,997,043 m3, 29,992,628 m3, 29,811,191 m3 and 29,931,238 m3, respectively. It was shown that there was no significant changes in estimated flow rate because no significant changes in land uses between 1990 and 2000 were observed. The annual average sediment loads of Scenarios I, II, III and IV for 15 year period were 36,643 kg/ha, 45,340 kg/ha , 27,195 kg/ha and 35,545 kg/ha, respectively. The estimated annual sediment loads from Scenarios I, II, and III, were different from that from the scenario IV, considering spatio-temporal changes in land use and meterological changes over the years, by 10%, 127%, and temporal changes in land use and meterological changes over the years, by 10%, 127%, and 77%. This can be explained in land use changes in high soil erosion potential areas, such as upland areas, within the study watershed. The comparison indicates that changes in land uses upland areas, within the study watershed. The comparison indicates that changes in land uses can affect on sediment yields by more than 10%, which could exceed the safety factor of 10% in Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs). It is, therefore, recommended that not only the temporal analysis with the weather input data but also spatial one with different land uses need to be considered in long-term hydrology and sediment simulating using the SWAT model

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Evaluation of Future Climate Change Impact on Streamflow of Gyeongancheon Watershed Using SLURP Hydrological Model

  • Ahn, So-Ra;Ha, Rim;Lee, Yong-Jun;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2008
  • The impact on streamflow and groundwater recharge considering future potential climate and land use change was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1999-2002) daily observed streamflow data for a $260.4km^2$ which has been continuously urbanized during the past couple of decades. The model was calibrated and validated with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.8 to 0.7 and 0.7 to 0.5, respectively. The CCCma CGCM2 data by two SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the future weather data was downscaled by Delta Change Method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. The future land uses were predicted by CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data of Landsat images. The future land uses showed that the forest and paddy area decreased 10.8 % and 6.2 % respectively while the urban area increased 14.2 %. For the future vegetation cover information, a linear regression between monthly NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from NOAA/AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using five years (1998 - 2002) data was derived for each land use class. The future highest NDVI value was 0.61 while the current highest NDVI value was 0.52. The model results showed that the future predicted runoff ratio ranged from 46 % to 48 % while the present runoff ratio was 59 %. On the other hand, the impact on runoff ratio by land use change showed about 3 % increase comparing with the present land use condition. The streamflow and groundwater recharge was big decrease in the future.

Assessing the Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Rice Evapotranspiration Considering Uncertainty (불확실성을 고려한 논벼 증발산량 기후변화 영향 평가)

  • Choi, Soon-Kun;Jeong, Jaehak;Cho, Jaepil;Hur, Seung-Oh;Choi, Dongho;Kim, Min-Kyeong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2018
  • Evapotranspiration is a key element in designing and operating agricultural hydraulic structures. The profound effect of climate change to local agro-hydrological systems makes it inevitable to study the potential variability in evapotranspiration rate in order to develop policies on future agricultural water management as well as to evaluate changes in agricultural environment. The APEX-Paddy model was used to simulate local evapotranspiration responses to climate change scenarios. Nine Global Climate Models(GCMs) downscaled using a non-parametric quantile mapping method and a Multi?Model Ensemble method(MME) were used for an uncertainty analysis in the climate scenarios. Results indicate that APEX-Paddy and the downscaled 9 GCMs reproduce evapotranspiration accurately for historical period(1976~2005). For future periods, simulated evapotranspiration rate under the RCP 4.5 scenario showed increasing trends by -1.31%, 2.21% and 4.32% for 2025s(2011~2040), 2055s(2041~2070) and 2085s(2071~2100), respectively, compared with historical(441.6 mm). Similar trends were found under the RCP 8.5 scenario with the rates of increase by 0.00%, 4.67%, and 7.41% for the near?term, mid?term, and long?term periods. Monthly evapotranspiration was predicted to be the highest in August, July was the month having a strong upward trend while. September and October were the months showing downward trends in evapotranspiration are mainly resulted from the shortening of the growth period of paddy rice due to temperature increase and stomatal closer as ambient $CO_2$ concentration increases in the future.

Analysis of GHG Reduction Potential on Road Transportation Sector using the LEAP Model - Low Carbon Car Collaboration Fund, Fuel Efficiency, Improving Driving Behavior - (LEAP 모형을 이용한 도로교통부문의 온실가스 감축잠재량 분석 - 저탄소차협력금제도, 연비강화, 운전행태개선을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Min wook;Yoon, Young Joong;Han, Jun;Lee, Hwa Soo;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2016
  • This study the efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction of 'low carbon car collaboration fund' and its alternative 'control of average fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas', and 'improving driving behavior' were analyzed by using LEAP, long term energy analysis model. Total 4 scenarios were set, baseline scenario, without energy-saving activity, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario. The contents of analysis were forecast of energy demand by scenario and application as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emission volume, and the period taken for analysis was every 1 year during 2015~2030. Baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emission volume in 2015 would be 7,935,697 M/T and 13,081,986 M/T in 2030, increased 64.8%. The analysis result was average annual increase rate of 3.4%. The expected average annual increase rate of other scenarios was, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario 1.7%, 'fuel efficiency improving' scenario 3.0%. and 'improving driving behavior' scenario 3.4%. and these were each 1.7%, 0.3%. 0.3% reduce from baseline scenario. The largest reduction was 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, and there after were 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario.

Calculation of preliminary site-specific DCGLs for nuclear power plant decommissioning using hybrid scenarios

  • Seo, Hyung-Woo;Sohn, Wook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.1098-1108
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    • 2019
  • Korea's first commercial nuclear power plant at Kori site was permanently shut down in 2017 and is currently in transition stage. Preparatory activities for decommissioning such as historical site assessment, characterization, and dismantling design are being actively carried out for successful D&D (Dismantling and Decontamination) at Kori site. The ultimate goal of decommissioning will be to ensure the safety of workers and residents that may arise during the decommissioning of nuclear facilities and, thereby finally returning the site to its original status in accordance with the release criteria. Upon completion of decommissioning, the resident's safety at a site released will be assessed from the evaluation of dose caused by radionuclides expected to be present or detected at the site. Although the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants with decommissioning experience use different site release criteria, most of them are 0.25 mSv/y. In Korea, both the unrestricted and restricted release criteria have been set to 0.1 mSv/y by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission. However, since the dose is difficult to measure, measurable concentration guideline levels for residual radionuclides that result in dose equivalent to the site release criteria should be derived. For this derivation, site reuse scenario, selection of potential radionuclides, and systematic methodology should be developed in planning stage of Kori site decommissioning. In this paper, for calculation of a preliminary site-specific Derived Concentration Guideline Levels (DCGLs) for the Nuclear Power Plant site, a novel approach has been developed which can fully reflect practical reuse plans of the Kori site by taking into account multiple site reuse scenarios sequentially, thereby striking a remarkable distinction with conventional approaches which considers only a single site scenario.

International Cross-Sectional Survey among Healthcare Professionals on the Management of Cow's Milk Protein Allergy and Lactose Intolerance in Infants and Children

  • Madrazo, J Armando;Alrefaee, Fawaz;Chakrabarty, Anjan;de Leon, Julia C.;Geng, Lanlan;Gong, Sitang;Heine, Ralf G.;Jarvi, Anette;Ngamphaiboon, Jarungchit;Ong, Christina;Rogacion, Jossie M.
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.263-275
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The present international survey among healthcare providers aimed to collect data on theoretical knowledge and clinical practices in the diagnosis and management of cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) and lactose intolerance (LI) in infants. Methods: A global survey was conducted in several countries with diverse health care settings. The survey consisted of multiple-choice questions in 3 main domains: (1) understanding and clinical practices around CMPA and LI; (2) case scenarios; and (3) disease-specific knowledge and potential educational needs. Results: Responses were available from 1,663 participants. About 62% of respondents were general practitioners or general pediatricians, and the remainder were pediatric allergists/gastroenterologists (18%) or other health practitioners (20%). The survey identified knowledge gaps regarding the types of CMPA (IgE-mediated vs. non-IgE-mediated) and the clinical overlap with LI. The survey suggested diverse clinical practices regarding the use of hypoallergenic formulas, as well as misconceptions about the prebiotic benefits of lactose in extensively hydrolyzed formulas in non-breastfed infants with CMPA. Responses to the two case scenarios highlighted varying levels of awareness of the relevant clinical practice guidelines. While respondents generally felt confident in managing infants with CMPA and LI, about 80% expressed an interest for further training in this area. Conclusion: The current survey identified some knowledge gaps and regional differences in the management of infants with CMPA or LI. Local educational activities among general and pediatric healthcare providers may increase the awareness of clinical practice guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of both conditions and help improve clinical outcomes.

Evaluating the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts under climate change in Hung-up watershed, South Korea

  • Sadiqi, Sayed Shajahan;Hong, Eun-Mi;Nam, Wan-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.143-143
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    • 2021
  • Climate change indicators, mainly frequent drought which has happened since the drought of 1994, 1995, and 2012 causing the devastating effect to the agricultural sector, and could be more disruptive given the context of climate change indicators by increasing the temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on agriculture production and water management. Since both the possibility of drought manifestation and substantial yield losses, we are propositioning an integrated method for evaluating past and future agriculture drought hazards that depend on models' simulations in the Hung-up watershed. to discuss the question of how climate change might influence the impact of extreme agriculture drought by assessing the potential changes in temporal trends of agriculture drought. we will calculate the temporal trends of future drought through drought indices Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Palmer drought severity index by using observed data of (1991-2020) from Wonju meteorological station and projected climate change scenarios (2021-2100) of the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). expected results confirmed the frequency of extreme agricultural drought in the future projected to increase under all studied RCPs. at present 100 years drought is anticipated to happen since the result showing under RCP2.6 will occur every 24 years, RCP4.5 every 17 years, and RCPs8.5 every 7 years, and it would be double in the largest warming scenarios. On another side, the result shows unsupportable water management, could cause devastating consequences in both food production and water supply in extreme events. Because significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity like to be initiate at different time scales for each drought indicator. Based on the expected result that the evaluating the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts and recession could be used for the development of proactive drought risk management, policies for future water balance, prioritize sustainable strengthening and mitigation strategies.

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A Study on the Business of the Korean OTT in North American Market : Focusing on scenario analysis based on cash flow estimation (국내 OTT 사업자의 해외시장 진출의 사업성 연구 : 현금흐름 추정에 의한 시나리오 분석을 중심으로)

  • Byun, Sangkyu;Park, Chun-il;Wee, Kyeong Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.274-287
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    • 2022
  • Competition in the broadcasting market is intensifying as OTT services are spreading. And Korea is positioned as a competent international contents supply base. This can be helpful for the domestic contents production industry. However, it can result in being incorporated as a subcontractor in the global video industry. Therefore, it is necessary for Korean OTT operators to expand their market upto overseas and maintain competitiveness by linking content competitiveness to the sales expansion. This study was conducted to reduce the risk and encourage implementation through feasibility analysis of overseas business of domestic OTT operators. The North American market was selected as a region with high potential through in-depth interviews with experts and literatures review. And it was confirmed that the partnership with local platform is effective. Then, the sales and input costs were estimated, and business was evaluated using the net present value method. Totally 18 scenarios were created using multiple estimates for copyright cost, subscribers, and rate, which are highly uncertain. From the analyses, 8 scenarios were found to be acceptable. And copyright cost has the greatest impact on business success, followed by rates and subscribers.

A Basic Research on the Development and Performance Evaluation of Evacuation Algorithm Based on Reinforcement Learning (강화학습 기반 피난 알고리즘 개발과 성능평가에 관한 기초연구)

  • Kwang-il Hwang;Byeol Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.132-133
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    • 2023
  • The safe evacuation of people during disasters is of utmost importance. Various life safety evacuation simulation tools have been developed and implemented, with most relying on algorithms that analyze maps to extract the shortest path and guide agents along predetermined routes. While effective in predicting evacuation routes in stable disaster conditions and short timeframes, this approach falls short in dynamic situations where disaster scenarios constantly change. Existing algorithms struggle to respond to such scenarios, prompting the need for a more adaptive evacuation route algorithm that can respond to changing disasters. Artificial intelligence technology based on reinforcement learning holds the potential to develop such an algorithm. As a fundamental step in algorithm development, this study aims to evaluate whether an evacuation algorithm developed by reinforcement learning satisfies the performance conditions of the evacuation simulation tool required by IMO MSC.1/Circ1533.

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Metaverse Artifact Analysis through the Roblox Platform Forensics (메타버스 플랫폼 Roblox 포렌식을 통한 아티팩트 분석)

  • Yiseul Choi;Jeongeun Cho;Eunbeen Lee;Hakkyong Kim;Seongmin Kim
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2023
  • The growth of the metaverse has been accelerated by the increased demand for non-face-to-face interactions due to COVID-19 and advancements in technologies such as blockchain and NFTs. However, with the emergence of various metaverse platforms and the corresponding rise in users, criminal cases such as ransomware attacks, copyright infringements, and sexual offenses have occurred within the metaverse. Consequently, the need for artifacts that can be utilized as digital evidence within metaverse systems has increased. However, there is a lack of information about artifacts that can be used as digital evidence. Furthermore, metaverse security evaluation and forensic analysis are also insufficient, and the absence of attack scenarios and related guidelines makes forensics challenging. To address these issues, this paper presents artifacts that can be used for user behavior analysis and timeline analysis through dynamic analysis of Roblox, a representative metaverse gaming solution. Based on analyzing interrelationship between identified artifacts through memory forensics and log file analysis, this paper suggests the potential usability of artifacts in metaverse crime scenarios. Moreover, it proposes improvements by analyzing the current legal and regulatory aspects to address institutional deficiencies.