• Title/Summary/Keyword: Potential risk

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Establishing Probability-Based Warrants for Right-Turn Lanes at Unsignalized Intersections (확률기반 비신호교차로의 우회전 전용차로 설치 기준 정립)

  • Moon, Jaepil
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : The objective of this study is to establish the traffic volume-based warrants of right-turn lanes at unsignalized intersections and to introduce a risk probability methodology based on the warrants. METHODS : In this study, a risk probability of a potential rear-end collision is applied between a right-turn vehicle and the immediately following through vehicle. Using the shifted negative exponential model and the compound probability theorem, the risk probability can be expressed as the function of directional volumes and the percentage of right-turns for a two-lane and four-lane highway, respectively. RESULTS : Based on the risk probablity, guidelines for installing right-turn lanes on two-lane and four-lane highways were developed. The risk probability also showed rationality by comparing with right-turn same-direction conflicts observed in-situ. CONCLUSIONS : The results of our study define the total approaching volumes to encourage a right-turn lane as a function of operating speed, percentage of right-turn, and number of lanes.

Commercial Airline Pilots' Risk Perception of Emergency Flight Situations (민간항공 조종사의 비정상 운항 상황에 대한 위험 지각)

  • Sohn, Young-Woo;Kim, Yong-Seok;Kim, Chan;Park, Su-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.46-56
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    • 2007
  • This research examined how pilots perceive risks when faced with emergency flight situations. We had 116 commercial airline pilots evaluate riskiness of 39 non-routine flight situations. The pilots' risk perception was analyzed as a function of their position (captain vs. first officer), expertise (expert vs. novice), and military flight experience (with vs. without military experience). Results showed that captains evaluated potential-risk situations and low-risk situations more dangerous than first officers. However, there were no differences between experts and novices, and between pilots having military flight experience and pilots not having military flight experience in risk perception. The analysis of multi-dimensional scaling revealed that the pilots used controllability as a key dimension for evaluating riskiness, though the other dimensions they used varied with their position, expertise, and military flight experience.

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A study on the Research & Analysis of the Health and safety Managing's Understanding on the Applied Construction work site Risk Assessment - Focus on Site manager & manager - (건설업 위험성평가 적용사업장 종사자 안전보건 인식도 조사 연구 -사업장책임자 및 관리감독자를 중심으로-)

  • Choe, Su-Hwan;Bae, Jun-Tae;Lee, Yeon-Su;Kim, Chi-Gyeong
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2012.04a
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2012
  • Risk Assessment, a basis of health and safety management system, is an calamity prevention activity which regularly measure the level of a risk to passively improve potential hazard. A problem, the assessment not being improved to be applied to the construction work site where requires diversity and complexity, causes the assessment to be inefficient to bring quality results. A study on the investigates and compares the surveyed degree of recognitions of workers who works in companies executing the risk assessment By the investigation and comparison, it is expected to bring the better solution for early and efficient application for those companies which are not taking the risk assessment.

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A Study on Development of Standard Safety Operation Method Risk Analysis by Weight (가중치 적용에 의한 표준안전 작업방법 위험성평가 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Kwang-Mo
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2007
  • Present time there are many risk analysis method in the world. A hazard is an exposure that has the potential to induce and adverse event. Risk is the probability of an adverse event given exposure to hazard. The evaluation of scientific information on the hazardous properties of environmental agents and the extent of exposure to these agents. But operation risk analysis method is not enough for manufacturing industry even if it is existence, it will be separated to improve Safety. In this paper, I will develop the AHP Weighted operation risk analysis method to improve Safety.

A Study on the Accident Analysis by Nip Points and Risk Assessment in the Medium and Small Enterprise (중소 제조업의 끼임 재해분석 및 위험성평가 연구 - 경인지역 50인 미만 제조업을 대상으로 -)

  • Yang, Kwang Mo
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2014
  • As preventive measures have received tremendous attention to prevent any possible accident in advance, many work places have introduced safety and health management systems. However despite of this government's effort, the industrial accident rate of small-scale businesses with less than 50 employees does not decline, which is mainly because the projects are not differentiated according to the risk level of individual business. To evaluate the risk level of small-scale businesses with less than 50 employees and then establish effective safety and health management systems according to the risk level, this study has conducted the following processes. The small-scale businesses with less than 50 employees were evaluated through accident type, and potential accident risk factor was evaluated through location, business type, and business size. The results of this analysis are expected to make contribution to improving the effectiveness of the safety and health management supports to small-scale businesses with less than 50 employees.

Analysis of Farm Management Stabilization Effects Using Weather Derivatives for Apple Farmers in Kyeongpuk District (날씨파생상품을 이용한 경북지역 사과농가 경영안정 효과 분석)

  • Yun, Sung-Wuk;Choi, Jang-Hoon;Chung, Won-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.459-475
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes weather derivatives as an alternative risk management tool to stabilize farm revenue to complement the existing crop insurance program which suffers from asymmetric information problems such as adverse selection, moral hazard, and verifiability. We estimated apple yield functions to observe the relationship between yields and weather indices such as temperature and precipitation. Based on the estimated yield functions we designed weather futures and options products underlying temperature and precipitation, and calculated the prices of futures and options by two different approaches, historical distribution and Monte Carlo simulation. We found that weather futures and options stabilize farm revenue based on the estimated four risk indicators: Coefficient of Variation, Value at Risk, Certainty Equivalence, and Risk Premium. As a result, weather derivatives could be considered as a potential farm risk management tool through studying more in legal and institutional strategies and developing various derivatives products.

Initiation of Pharmaceutical Care Service in Medical Intensive Care Unit with Drug Interaction Monitoring Program (내과계 중환자실 약료 서비스 도입과 약물상호작용 모니터링)

  • Choi, Jae Hee;Choi, Kyung Sook;Lee, Kwang Seup;Rhie, Sandy Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.138-144
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    • 2015
  • Objective: It is to evaluate the drug interaction monitoring program as a pilot project to develop a pharmaceutical care model in a medical intensive care unit and to analyze the influencing factors of drug interactions. Method: Electronic medical records were retrospectively investigated for 116 patients who had been hospitalized in a medical intensive care unit from October to December in 2014. The prevalence of adverse reaction with risk rating higher than 'D' was investigated by Lexi-$Comp^{(R)}$ Online database. The factors related with potential drug interaction and with treatment outcomes were analyzed. Results: The number of patients with a potential interaction of drug combination was 92 (79.3%). Average ages, the length of stay in the intensive care unit and the numbers of prescription drugs showed significant differences between drug interaction group and non-drug interaction group. Opioids (14.4%), antibiotics (7.2%), and diuretics (7.2%) were most responsible drug classes for drug interactions and the individual medications included furosemide (6.4%), tramadol (4.9%), and remifentanil (4.5%). There were 950 cases with a risk rating of 'C' (84.6%), 142 cases with a risk rating of 'D' (12.6%), and 31 cases with a risk rating of 'X' (avoid combination) (2.8%). The factors affecting drug interactions were the number of drugs prescribed (p < 0.0001) and the length of stay at intensive care unit (p < 0.01). The patients in intensive care unit showed a high incidence of adverse reactions related to potential drug interaction. Therefore, drug interaction monitoring program as a one of pharmaceutical care services was successfully piloted and it showed to prevent adverse reaction and to improve therapeutic outcomes. Conclusion: Active participation of a pharmacist in the drug management at the intensive care unit should be considered.

Estimation of explosion risk potential in fuel gas supply systems for LNG fuelled ships (액화 천연 가스 연료 선박의 연료 공급 장치 폭발 잠재 위험 분석)

  • Lee, Sangick
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.39 no.9
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    • pp.918-922
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    • 2015
  • As international environmental regulations for pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions discharged from ships are being reinforced, it is drawing attention to use LNG as ship fuel. This paper compares the explosion risk potential in the LNG fuel gas supply systems of two types used in marine LNG fuelled vessels. By selecting 8500 TEU class container ships as target, LNG storage tank was designed and pressure conditions were assumed for the use of each fuel supply type. The leak hole sizes were divided into three categories, and the leak frequencies for each category were estimated. The sizes of the representative leak holes and release rates were estimated. The release rate and the leak frequency showed an inverse relationship. The pump type fuel gas supply system showed high leak frequency, and the pressure type fuel gas supply system showed high release rate. Computational fluid dynamics simulation was applied to perform a comparative analysis of the explosion risk potential of each fuel supply system.

Association between Dietary Acid Load and Insulin Resistance: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

  • Moghadam, Sajjad Khalili;Bahadoran, Zahra;Mirmiran, Parvin;Tohidi, Maryam;Azizi, Fereidoun
    • Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.104-109
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    • 2016
  • In the current study, we investigated the longitudinal association between dietary acid load and the risk of insulin resistance (IR) in the Tehranian adult population. This longitudinal study was conducted on 925 participants, aged 22~80 years old, in the framework of the third (2006~2008) and fourth (2009~2011) phases of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. At baseline, the dietary intake of subjects was assessed using a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire, and the potential renal acid load (PRAL) and net endogenous acid production (NEAP) scores were calculated at baseline. Fasting serum insulin and glucose were measured at baseline and again after a 3-year of follow-up; IR was defined according to optimal cut-off values. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of IR according to the PRAL and NEAP quartile categories. Mean age and body mass index of the participants were 40.3 years old of $26.4kg/m^2$, respectively. Mean PRAL and NEAP scores were -11.2 and 35.6 mEq/d, respectively. After adjustment for potential confounders, compared to the lowest quartile of PRAL and NEAP, the highest quartile was accompanied with increased risk of IR [odds ratio (OR)=2.81, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.32~5.97 and OR=2.18, 95% CI=1.03~4.61, respectively]. Our findings suggest that higher acidic dietary acid-base load, defined by higher PRAL and NEAP scores, may be a risk factor for the development of IR and related metabolic disorders.

Distribution and Pollution Assessment of Heavy Metals in Surface Sediments Near Gwangan Bridge (광안대교 인근 퇴적토 중의 중금속 농도 및 오염도 조사 연구)

  • Lee, Junho;Yang, Changgeun;Lee, Taeyoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2018
  • The main objective of this study was to analyse heavy metals in sediments obtained from Gwangan bridge and to evaluate pollution intensity of the sites. To evaluate pollution intensity of the sites, we used enrichment factor (EF), geoaccumulation index, potential ecological risk factor (PERF), and mean PEL quotient. Pollution intensities of these sites were evaluated by above methods, and we found most dangerous heavy metal and polluted sites. All sites showed non polluted or low risk for the heavy metals such as Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, but all sites were categorized as minor enrichment for Cd. G4 was evaluated as moderately polluted by Cd ($I_{geo}$) but other sites were unpolluted by heavy metals. In summary, Cd was found to be higher concentrations for all sites. For G4 and G5 sites, Pb and Zn in addition to Cd were higher than other sites.