• Journal of Technology Innovation
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.35-60
• /
• 2017

In this study, the effects of Venture Start-up's Technological Capabilities on Financial Stability and Possibility of Insolvency was investigated by use of SEM(Structural Equation Model). Technological Business Capabilities include CEO's Technological Capability, Management Specialization and the Feasibility of the Investment plan. The empirical data for this study were taken from the technology assessment data of Korea Technology Guarantee Fund(KTGF) on 1,419 Venture Start-ups from 2011 until 2012 and the financial data of the following 2 years of the sample. Venture Start-ups established within 7 years, were selected for this study's sample from viewpoint of their 'High-Risk High-Return' characteristic. The results are as follows : Manpower including CEO's Technology-related Knowledge and Experience, Management Organization's Technological Specialization and Cooperativeness, Reasonable Investment and Financing Planning etc. were proved to improve Financial Stability, and therefore reduce Possibility of Insolvency.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.183-205
• /
• 2007

An investigation was undertaken of the optimal discriminant model for predicting the likelihood of insolvency in advance for medium-sized firms based on the technology evaluation. The explanatory variables included in the discriminant model were selected by both factor analysis and discriminant analysis using stepwise selection method. Five explanatory variables were selected in factor analysis in terms of explanatory ratio and communality. Six explanatory variables were selected in stepwise discriminant analysis. The effectiveness of linear discriminant model and logistic discriminant model were assessed by the criteria of the critical probability and correct classification rate. Result showed that both model had similar correct classification rate and the linear discriminant model was preferred to the logistic discriminant model in terms of criteria of the critical probability In case of the linear discriminant model with critical probability of 0.5, the total-group correct classification rate was 70.4% and correct classification rates of insolvent and solvent groups were 73.4% and 69.5% respectively. Correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify the present sample. However, the actual correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify a future observation. Unfortunately, the correct classification rate underestimates the actual correct classification rate because the data set used to estimate the discriminant function is also used to evaluate them. The cross-validation method were used to estimate the bias of the correct classification rate. According to the results the estimated bias were 2.9% and the predicted actual correct classification rate was 67.5%. And a threshold value is set to establish an in-doubt category. Results of linear discriminant model can be applied for the technology financing banks to evaluate the possibility of insolvency and give the ranking of the firms applied.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.19-34
• /
• 2022

There are growing concerns about debt insolvency among youth and low-income households. The deterioration in household debt quality among young people is due to a combination of sluggish employment, an increase in student loan burden and an increase in high-interest loans from the secondary financial sector. The purpose of this study was to explore the possibility of household debt default among young borrowers in Korea and to predict the factors affecting this possibility. This study utilized the 2021 Household Finance and Welfare Survey and used random forest algorithm to comprehensively analyze factors related to the possibility of default risk among young adults. This study presented the importance index and partial dependence charts of major determinants. This study found that the ratio of debt to assets(DTA), medical costs, household default risk index (HDRI), communication costs, and housing costs the focal independent variables.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.45 no.2
• /
• pp.65-76
• /
• 2022

Recently, not only traditional statistical techniques but also machine learning algorithms have been used to make more accurate bankruptcy predictions. But the insolvency rate of companies dealing with financial institutions is very low, resulting in a data imbalance problem. In particular, since data imbalance negatively affects the performance of artificial intelligence models, it is necessary to first perform the data imbalance process. In additional, as artificial intelligence algorithms are advanced for precise decision-making, regulatory pressure related to securing transparency of Artificial Intelligence models is gradually increasing, such as mandating the installation of explanation functions for Artificial Intelligence models. Therefore, this study aims to present guidelines for eXplainable Artificial Intelligence-based corporate bankruptcy prediction methodology applying SMOTE techniques and LIME algorithms to solve a data imbalance problem and model transparency problem in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The implications of this study are as follows. First, it was confirmed that SMOTE can effectively solve the data imbalance issue, a problem that can be easily overlooked in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Second, through the LIME algorithm, the basis for predicting bankruptcy of the machine learning model was visualized, and derive improvement priorities of financial variables that increase the possibility of bankruptcy of companies. Third, the scope of application of the algorithm in future research was expanded by confirming the possibility of using SMOTE and LIME through case application.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.75-92
• /
• 1999

In this study, the present state of fiscal crisis for local governments after IMF is analyzed, firstly. its implications Characteristics of structural reform of finance after IMF bailout in Korea are examined, secondly. Since Korea was shocked by the currency crisis at the end of 1997, its local governments have also faced fiscal difficulties. The Depression of national and local economies led to decreases in tax revenues of local governments. And these shrunken revenues led to their expenditure cuts. Many investment plans were curtailed, and ordinary expenditures were also reduced sharply. The negative influences of the currency crisis on local government's finances can be examined in terms of fiscal revenue, fiscal spending, and debt burden. As a result many local governments are now experiencing fiscal stress, and some of them are even faced with fiscal crisis although the possibility of extreme measures, such as moratoriums or bankruptcies, is very slim. This is due in part to the weight of debt in local governments' budgets having remained small since the debt of local governments has been controlled by the central government. Another reason is that, central government, which functions as a lender of last resort for the local governments, will pay the debt for them. Also, without a legal system which stipulates the adjudication of bankruptcy for municipalities in Korea, local Korean governments have no legal right to declare bankruptcy. Although not a single municipality has fallen into insolvency, yet, this trend will continue to deepen as the recession continues and may lead to a situation where manu local governments fall into virtual bankruptcy in the near future, and its effects on society, as a whole, will be serious. Therefore, measures to prevent and overcome such an extreme situation are necessary, but both short-and long-term policies should be to cope with the current fiscal crisis and to prevent the deepening of the current situation.

• 한국사회정책
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.151-174
• /
• 2018

This study investigates the issues in relation to the introduction of the fund-based Korean occupational pension, examining the development plans in the members' perspective. The strong drive from Korean government to introduce the fund-based governance seems to be a sort of strategy to expand coverage in occupational pension. It is not logical that the introduction of the fund-based scheme is likely to cause increase in earning rate and, what is more important is to set the conditions to implement the active investment decision. Also, because the introduction of the fund-based scheme may increase possibility of insolvency, it is necessary to strengthen beneficiary protection or funding rule but, in the short term, it is better to focus on funding rule rather than protection scheme. The introduction of the fund-based scheme suggests the direction that members can actively participate in occupational pension, which means that it is possible to operate occupational pension in the direction of intent of the system.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.41-67
• /
• 1991

Local autonomy of Korea's lower-level local council has been reinstated following elections last March for the first time in thirty years. Last June, we had elections for the upper-level local council. Mayors, governors, and administrative chiefs of cities, provinces and other local government bodies are slated for elections in the first half of next year. The impacts of local autonomy are taking effect in not only the political sphere, but also the administrative and economic spheres. In fact, it seems that some modification of all economic policy making and administration is inevitable. Since the initiation of local autonomy, in order to make the economy work more efficiently, it has become quite important to examine the impact of local autonomy on the national economy. The areas of local autonomy include independent legislative power, administrative power, organizational power, and most important of all, the independent public financial power of the local governments. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of local autonomy on the national economy and ways of enhancing the role of local public finance to facilitate settlement and development of the local autonomy system. Local autonomy will contribute to the continuous growth of our economy, allow balanced development, and generate greater efficiency. However, local autonomy can also incur economic costs causing at times short-term price instability, inefficient resource allocation, through tax competition and tax exporting, and insolvency of local government due to abusive fiscal operation. To reduce these side effects, different alternatives must be considered. Local autonomy systems generally provide more efficient resource allocation than centralization. But in the model used in Chapter 3 of this paper, the relative efficiencies of both local autonomy and centralization are determined by comparing the elasticity of substitution between national public goods and local public goods. If the elasticity of substitution is bigger than one, centralization provides a more efficient resource allocation. The development of local autonomy could be attained through democratization of the local public finance system including the following three propositions. I) The independence of public financial power of local governments should be established over central government. Furthermore, a democratically operated scheme of intergovernmental fiscal coordination is especially necessary. 2) In the operation of local finance, direct democracy is needed to induce the voluntary participation of local residents. The residents can take part in planning both the local budget and the development of the community. To attain this goal, all the results of local finance operations should be made public. 3) Among economic ill-effects of the local autonomy system, the most serious one is the possibility of insolvency of local governments. Therefore, measures to limit abusive spending by the local governments should be introduced, such as the fiscal restraints system adopted in the United States.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
• /
• v.12 no.6
• /
• pp.13-24
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the management of receivables on the management performance of micro manufacturing industries. The results of the survey are as follows. First, among the factors of management of pre- and post-trade receivables in the micro manufacturing industries, management organization and regulations, contract execution management, bad debt control, which are the subordinate factors of credit control, are positive (+) significant effect on stability. In terms of profitability, management organizations and regulations, which are subordinate factors of credit control management, have a positive (+) significant effect on profitability. The recovery management, which is a factor of management of post - receivable receivables, did not have a significant effect on the stability and profitability of financial management performance. Second, the effect of financial performance on organizational satisfaction is positively related to stability, while profitability has no significant effect on organizational satisfaction. The implication of this study is that pre - trade receivables management is more important than post - trade receivables management in the management of accounts receivables of micro manufacturing industries. Proactive credit management refers to the procedure of establishing and managing personal guarantees and physical guarantees in order to smooth the execution of the obligations at the same time as the contract is concluded through processes such as credit investigation, analysis and evaluation, and sales decision before the contract is concluded. Post receivables management based on the assumption of default is a receivables management procedure from receipt of receivables that are already defaulted to bad debts to bad debt processing. If the collection of receivables is delayed or bad debt is increased, Furthermore, a corporation may be subject to bankruptcy risk (insolvency by paper profits). Therefore, it is meaningful that this study suggests direction to induce change of contract type in advance by understanding the possibility of settlement of accounts receivable and recovery of bad debts within the day of transition in case of contract of micro manufacturing industries.