• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.587-593
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• 2012

We study Bayesian estimates for finite population proportions in multinomial problems. To do this, we consider a three-stage hierarchical Bayesian model. For prior, we use Dirichlet density to model each cell probability in each cluster. Our method does not require complicated computation such as Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to draw samples from each density of parameters. We draw samples using Gibbs sampler with grid method. We apply this algorithm to a couple of simulation data under three scenarios and we estimate the finite population proportions using two kinds of approaches We compare results with the point estimates of finite population proportions and their standard deviations. Finally, we check the consistency of computation using differen samples drawn from distinct iterates.

• 한국인구학
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.125-139
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• 1993

Korea has successfully achieved a lowered fertility level owing to the strong population control policy and effective family planning program. Along with fertility decline and decreased number of children in family, average number of household members has decreased and nontraditional households such as one person household and households composed of unrelated individuals have prolifirated, even though the absolute number of them are found minimal in Korea. However in recent years several data and survey results suggest that one person households are gradually in the increasing trend. The study aimed at investigating the real state of one person households in Korea and next analyzing the proportional distribution of one person households by a few socioeconomic characteristics, thus providing basic for eatablishing far-singhted population and social welfare policy in the future. Korea has experienced high growth rate of economy through government-led development plans starting from the 1960s. During the past three decades, Korea has shifted from the agricultural state to the industrialized one. In compliance with the economic growth, urbanization and industrialization have brought about rural-to-urban migration and a great bulk of young population migrated to urban areas, who are seeking for educational and job opportunities. Korean society has also been under drastic change in every aspect of life involving norms, tradition, and attitude, etc. Therefore, in spite of the prejudice on 'living alone' still remaining, young people gradually leave parents and home, and further form nontraditional households in urban areas. Current increase in the number of one person households is partly attributable to the increase in high female educational attainment and female participation in economic activities. As the industrial structure in Korea changes from primary into secondary and tertiary industries, job opportunities for service/sales and manufacturing are opened to young female labor force in the process of industrialization. Contrary to the formation of one person households by young people, the aged single households are composed when children in family leave one by one because of marriage, education, employment. In particular, a higher proportion of aged female single households occur in rural areas due to the mortality difference by sex. Based on the data released form the 1990 Population and Housing Census and National Fertility and Family Health Survey in 1985 and 1991, the study tried to examine the state of one person households in Korea. According to Census data, the number of one person households increased to 1, 021, 000 in 1990, comprising 9.0 percent of total households. And the survey reveal that among total 11, 540 households, 8.0 percent, 923 households, are composed of one person households. Generally, the proportion of female single households is greater than that of male ones, and a big proportion of one person households is concentrated in the 25-34 age bracket in urban areas and 65 years and more in rural areas. It is shown than one person householders in urban areas have higher educational attainment with 59.2 percent high schooling and over in 1991, Job seeking proved to be the main reason for leaving home and forming one person households. The number of young female single households with higher education and economic self-reliance are found nil and the study did not allow to analyze the causal realtionship between female education and employment and one person household formation. However more research and deep analysis on the causal facors on one person household formation using statistical method are believed to be necessary.

• 한국지역지리학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.195-210
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• 2016

본 연구는 고온에 취약한 그룹의 특성에 대한 이해를 증진하고 고온으로 인한 사망자를 줄이는데 기여하기 위하여 사회 경제적 요인과 사망자 임계기온의 관계를 연구하였다. 연구 지역은 서울이며 연구 기간은 2000~2010년으로 선정하였다. 연구 결과, 고령 인구 비율이 높은 지역과 낮은 지역에서 사망자 임계기온은 각각 $27.6^{\circ}C$와 $27.9^{\circ}C$이었다. 고학력자 비율이 높은 지역과 낮은 지역에서 사망자 임계 기온은 각각 $27.7^{\circ}C$와 $27.4^{\circ}C$이었다. 기초생활수급자 비율에 따른 지역 구분에서는 임계기온의 차이가 나타나지 않았다. 하지만 고령 인구 비율이 높고 기초생활수급자 비율이 높은 지역에서 사망자 임계기온은 다른 지역에 비해 $0.7^{\circ}C$ 낮았다. 고령 인구 비율이 높고 고학력자 비율이 낮은 지역에서 사망자 임계기온도 상대적으로 $0.7^{\circ}C$ 낮았다. 이는 서울에서 저소득 고령층이 고온에 취약하다는 것을 보여준다. 따라서 본 연구의 결과는 고온으로 인한 사망자를 줄이기 위하여 저소득 고령 인구에 대한 정책을 우선 수립할 필요성이 있음을 시사한다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.73-92
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• 1996

인구의 경제활동상태를 측정하는 방법으로, 평상상태접근법과 현재상태접근법(노동력접근법)의 두가지 만이 있으며, 평상상태접근법을 종전의 유업자접근방법과 동일한 것으로 오해하는 경우를 종종 보고 있다. 이는 유업자접근방법에서 유업자를 평상 일을 하고 있는 자라고 정의한데서 기인한다. 그러나 유업자와 무업자로만 인구를 구분하고 있는 유업자접근방법은 1930년대 세계 대공황을 계기로 실업자 파악이 불가능하고, 조사자, 피조사자의 주관이 너무 개입되는 등의 비판이 제기되어 1940년에 노동력접근방법으로 대체되었다. 이러한 노동력 접근방법이 1947년 ILO의 공식 접근방법으로 권고된 뒤 많은 국가에서 이 방법을 채택하고 있다. 한편 ILO는 1982년에 평상상태접근법(Usual Status Approach)을 소개하였는데, 이는 종전 유업자접근방법과 달리 1년간의 활동상태에 따라 취업자, 실업자, 비경제활동인구를 파악하는 방법이다. 따라서 경제활동인구를 파악하는 방법은 기본적으로 노동력접근방법(현재상태접근방법), 평상상태접근방법, 유업자접근방법의 3가지가 있다. 본고는 이들 경제활동상태를 측정하는 세 가지 접근방법의 차이점과 장, 단점을 살펴보고 또 이들 접근법을 실제 적용한 결과를 분석함으로써 우리 나라의 상황에 가장 적합한 접근방법을 밝히고자 한다. 우리 나라는 근래 산업구조가 근대화되어 농업과 같은 계절성이 강한 산업에 종사하는 인구의 비율이 아주 낮고, 또한 1년 동안의 활동과 특정기간 동안 활동이 서로 다른 인구의 비율이 낮게 나타나는 반면, 인구이동률은 아주 높게 나타나고 있다. 이러한 점을 고려 한다면 우리 나라 경제활동인구를 파악하는 조사에는 노동력접근법을 채택하는 것이 바람직하다. 이외에도 경제활동인구조사에서 채택하고 있는 노동력접근법을 그 모집단이 되는 인구주택 총조사에서도 채택하는 것이 좀더 합리적일 것이다. 그 이유로는 총조사의 결과가 각종 표본조사의 결과를 검증하고 보완하는 벤치마크 기능도 수행하기 때문이다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.17-53
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• 1982

Focusing on the strength of son preference obtained from two surveys of the same area, an attempt has been made to measure the change on the IS value scale that many have occurred over the last seven-year period, the underlying assumption here being that the strength of son preference wanes in inverse proportion to the level of society's socio-economic development. Various methodological approaches have been put to test to weigh the importance of the sex preference as a dependent variable, as an independent variable, and as an intermediate variable. A few methodological issues are suggested.

• Journal of Neurogastroenterology and Motility
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.559-569
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• 2018

Background/Aims Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common disease globally with increasing prevalence and consequently greater burden on the Healthcare system. Traditionally, GERD has been considered a disease of middle-aged and older people. Since risk factors for GERD affect a growing number of the adult population, concerns have been raised that increasingly younger people may develop GERD. We aim to determine if the proportion of younger patients has increased among the GERD population. Methods The incidence of GERD as well as several variables were evaluated during an 11-year period. Explorys was used to evaluate datasets at a "Universal" and Healthcare system in northern Ohio to determine if trends at a local level reflected those at a universal level. GERD patients were classified into 7 age groups (15-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ${\geq}70$ years). Results The proportion of patients with GERD increased in all age groups, except for those who were ${\geq}70$ years in the universal dataset (P < 0.001) and those who were ${\geq}60$ years in the Healthcare system (P < 0.001). The greatest rise was seen in 30-39 years in both datasets (P < 0.001). Similarly, the proportion of GERD patients who were using proton pump inhibitors increased in all age groups except for those who were ${\geq}70$ years in both datasets (P < 0.001), with the greatest increase being the group 30-39 years (P < 0.001). Conclusion Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of younger patients with GERD, especially those within the age range of 30-39 years.

• 한국인구학
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.87-117
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• 1985

In Principle, the distriction should be understood between projections and forecasts. When the author or user of a projection is willing to describe it as indicating the most likely population at a give date, then he has made a forecast Population change since 1 960 has been reviewed briefly in order to forecast the population of Korea in the year 2,000 which is a leading factor in long term national development plan for which Korea Institute for Population and Health (KIPH) has been participated since 1983. The author of this paper introduced the population forecast prepared for the long term national development plan and an attempt of comparisons with other forecasts such as D.P. Smith's, T. Frejka's, Economic Planning Board's (EPB), UN's and S.B. Lee's was made. Those six forecasts of Korean future population in year 2,000 varried from 48.5 million to 50.0 million due to the base population and assumption of fertility and mortality however the range of total population size is not large enough. Taking four forecasts such as KIPH, EPB, UN, and Lee based on 1980 population census results and latest data of fertility and mortality, KIPH and UN forecast are close in total population size even though there was a slight difference in fertility and mortality assumptions. The smallest size of total population was shown by S.B. Lee (see Table 13) although the difference between KIPH and Lee was approximately one million which is two percent of total population in year 2,000. As a summary of conclusion the author pointed out that one can take anyone of forecasts prepared by different body because size and proportion wise of the Korean population until early I 990s can not be different much and new population projections must be provided by using 1985 population census data and other latest fertility and mortality information coflected by Korea Institute for Population and Health and Economic Planning Board in forth comming year.

• 대한물리의학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2023

PURPOSE: This investigation in the study aimed to assess to determine proportion and susceptibility makers of sarcopenia in Korean younger female aged 30 to 39 years. METHODS: To address the complex sampling design of Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, appropriate individual weights were incorporated into the analysis. The data employed a stratified, clustered, multistage probability sampling design. A total of 2,098 participants were enrolled and categorized into two groups based on their skeletal muscle mass index scores. One hundred and twenty-four individuals were placed in the sarcopenia group, while 2,024 were allocated to a normal group. The study examined various markers as variables, including age, height, weight, body mass index waist circumference, skeletal muscle mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, triglyceride, and total cholesterol levels, and smoking and drinking habits. RESULTS: The study found that proportion of sarcopenia in this population was 3.78% (CI: 2.89-4.94) in sarcopenia group and 96.22% (CI: 95.06-97.11) in normal with weighed values. Several susceptibilities including height, weight, BMI, waist circumference, diastolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol levels were risk factor for sarcopenia (p < .05), exhibited significant differences between the sarcopenia and normal groups. CONCLUSION: This investigation provides the proportion of sarcopenia and identifies relevant susceptibility markers among community dwelling younger women in Korea.

• 한국인구학
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.62-77
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• 1979

The purpose of this study is to explain the increasing trend of the aged population and its demographic characteristics. This study is based on the data for the aged population above 65 years old published by the Bureau of Statistics, Economic Planning Board. The increasing trend of the aged population has been analyzed and projected from 1955 to the year 2000. Some demographic charicteristics of the aged population including marital status, educational status and status of economic activities have also been analyzed in order to identify the problems associated with aging of population in Korea. The study offers the following conclusion. 1. The aged population index, the proportion of aged population to total population was 3.6 in 1975 and projected to be 6.6 in 2000. There has been steady increase of the aged population is reflected in changes of population structure. The proportional change of the aged population index was 100.0 in 1955, 109.0 in 1975 and 200.0 in 2000 respectively. 2. As for marital status of the aged population 77.6 per cent of male were married while 24.3 per cent of female were married in 1975. 22 per cent of male were widowed while it spouses died declined remarkable the mortality rate declined. 3. As the educational status of the aged, 77 per cent never attended school and 18 per cent attended from a primary school. This is very low and the number of educated men is higher than that of educated women. The rank ordering of schooling is city, Eub and Myeon in that aged. 4. The dependency ratio of the aged population was 5.9 in 1955, 6.1 in 1975 and will be 9.8 in 2000. It is gradually increasing as indicated above 20 per cent of aged population was economically active of these, they are employed in the following occupations as listed in order of the magnitude of the aged population employed. The employment status of the aged workers shows that a greater number of persons are self-employed than workers for another employer. In particular, temporary employees comprise 56.0 per cent of those employed.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.127-151
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to examine measures to improve government's supply oriented housing policy in population declining cities. For this purpose, system dynamics simulation method was used to build urban-housing model and different sets of housing policies were tested to see their impact on local housing problems. Simulation result shows that there is no best set of housing policies that can solve all housing problems in population declining cities. It also indicates that housing policy that solve one type of problems can worsen other type of problems. Housing policy that increases population size has negative effect of housing oversupply. It also increases proportion of old houses in population declining cities. However, housing policy that makes city younger with newer houses tends to increase housing shortage and housing price. So, policy choice needs to be made with clear understanding of trade off between different policies. The result also shows it is difficult to expect a full scale effect of housing policy on local housing problems unless it is executed with regional economic development policy because local housing problems are so closely related with local economic problem in population declining local cities.