• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population Estimation

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인구 역 추정에 의한 시조의 연대를 추정하는 수리적 방법

  • 유동선;구자흥;이성철
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.97-108
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    • 2004
  • There are so many methods in population estimation such as logistic estimation and compound interest estimation. If we have some pieces of information about population of one tribe, we can estimate progenitor chronology of that tribe used by inverse estimation. In this paper, we describe several theory of population estimation, and develop mathematical method for estimation progenitor chronology from prior general data and statistical estimation theory. Several examples are illustrated.

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Variance estimation for distribution rate in stratified cluster sampling with missing values

  • Heo, Sunyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.443-449
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    • 2017
  • Estimation of population proportion like the distribution rate of LED TV and the prevalence of a disease are often estimated based on survey sample data. Population proportion is generally considered as a special form of population mean. In complex sampling like stratified multistage sampling with unequal probability sampling, the denominator of mean may be random variable and it is estimated like ratio estimator. In this research, we examined the estimation of distribution rate based on stratified multistage sampling, and determined some numerical outcomes using stratified random sample data with about 25% of missing observations. In the data used for this research, the survey weight was determined by deterministic way. So, the weights are not random variable, and the population distribution rate and its variance estimator can be estimated like population mean estimation. When the weights are not random variable, if one estimates the variance of proportion estimator using ratio method, then the variances may be inflated. Therefore, in estimating variance for population proportion, we need to examine the structure of data and survey design before making any decision for estimation methods.

A Comparison of Estimation Method for Population Exposed to Noise Using Noise Map (소음지도를 이용한 소음노출인구 산정방법별 비교)

  • Choi, Sung Kyu;Lee, Byung Chan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.24 no.10
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    • pp.802-808
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest efficient methods for estimating population exposed to noises by analyzing differences of population exposed to noises estimated by each method through comparing exposed population estimated by utilizing existing methods and those estimated by using census output areas reflecting the actual population information of each address. For population exposed to noises, the error of exposed population estimated by using the per capita living space turned out to be the biggest, and other estimation methods had no significant difference. For population exposed to excess noises, as a result of analyzing population estimated by each method based on census output areas, the error of the method using a grid noise map turned out to be the biggest. For the method to estimate population exposed to noises by using a noise map, the estimation methods using census output areas and total ground area are considered to be more rational than the grid noise map estimation method or the method to estimate the living space per capita.

Estimation of Denominators- a New Approach for Calculating of Various Rates in Cancer Registries

  • Haroon, A.S.;Gupta, S.M.;Tyagi, B.B.;Farhat, J.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.3229-3232
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    • 2012
  • In this study, cancer incidence data were assessed to provide various rates of five year age groups for a given year, lying between two census years. The individual exponential growth rate method is most useful in both population-based and non-population cased cancer registries in India to estimate the population by five yearly age groups and also find the rates of crude rates, age standard rates and cumulative rates. This method has been shown to endure from bias and often results sacrificing the overall growth rate and correction factor must be needful in five year age group population to maintain it. A second method, the difference distribution method is also able to maintain the overall growth rate and overcome the bias in estimation of five yearly age group populations. From this point of view these methods serving a new technique for population estimation by five yearly age groups for inter census years.

Population Distribution Estimation Using Regression-Kriging Model (Regression-Kriging 모형을 이용한 인구분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Byeong-Sun;Ku, Cha-Yong;Choi, Jin-Mu
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.806-819
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    • 2010
  • Population data has been essential and fundamental in spatial analysis and commonly aggregated into political boundaries. A conventional method for population distribution estimation was a regression model with land use data, but the estimation process has limitation because of spatial autocorrelation of the population data. This study aimed to improve the accuracy of population distribution estimation by adopting a Regression-Kriging method, namely RK Model, which combines a regression model with Kriging for the residuals. RK Model was applied to a part of Seoul metropolitan area to estimate population distribution based on the residential zones. Comparative results of regression model and RK model using RMSE, MAE, and G statistics revealed that RK model could substantially improve the accuracy of population distribution. It is expected that RK model could be adopted actively for further population distribution estimation.

A Modified Computing Algorithm for Raking Ratio Estimation Subject to Partial Marginal Information

  • Son, Chang Kyoon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.419-433
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    • 2004
  • We suggest the modified computing algorithm for raking ratio estimation under the assumption that the population total is partially known, and the sample total is completely known about survey variable in contingency table. We show that the proposed estimation procedure is useful to estimate the population cell count in this situation through an empirical study.

A Study on the Estimation of Economic Population Statistical Model by Computer Simulation (컴퓨터 시뮬레이션에 의한 경제인구 예측 통계 모형에 관한 연구)

  • 정관희
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Industry Society
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    • v.4 no.12
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    • pp.1033-1042
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    • 2003
  • In this study, the economic population prediction by computer simulation has been studied by using statistical model. The forecast of future population based on that of the past is a very difficult problem as uncertain conditions are modeled in it. Even if a thought forecast is possible, world-wide cultures and the local culture emotion the cultures of the world and out country can not be predicted due to rapid change and the estimation of population is ‘nowadays more and more’ difficult to be made good guess. In the estimation of economic population, by using the census population from 1960 to 1990, and using ARIMA model developed by Box and Jenkins, the estimation has been done on the economic population until 2021 according to age as appeared table and appendix. This kind of forecast would have both good point and weak point of ARIMA model theory saying that prediction can be done only by the economic population.

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The Consideration of Consistent Use of Sample Standard Deviation in the Confidence Interval Estimation of Population Mean and Population Ratio (모평균과 모비율의 구간추정에서 표본표준편차의 일관된 사용에 대한 고찰)

  • Park, Sun Yong;Yoon, Hyoung Seok
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2014
  • This study compares the confidence interval estimation of population mean with that of population ratio, and considers whether these two estimations ensures consistency. As a result, this study suggests the following acquisition method of consistency : dealing with population mean and population ratio in the same mode, substituting the observed or experimental value of sample standard deviation for standard deviation in population in setting a confidence interval of both population mean and population ratio, and distinguishing population ratio $\hat{P}$ from its observed vale $\hat{p}$.

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Optimal Design of the Adaptive Searching Estimation in Spatial Sampling

  • Pyong Namkung;Byun, Jong-Seok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2001
  • The spatial population existing in a plane ares, such as an animal or aerial population, have certain relationships among regions which are located within a fixed distance from one selected region. We consider with the adaptive searching estimation in spatial sampling for a spatial population. The adaptive searching estimation depends on values of sample points during the survey and on the nature of the surfaces under investigation. In this paper we study the estimation by the adaptive searching in a spatial sampling for the purpose of estimating the area possessing a particular characteristic in a spatial population. From the viewpoint of adaptive searching, we empirically compare systematic sampling with stratified sampling in spatial sampling through the simulation data.

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Effect of Grid Cell Size on the Accuracy of Dasymetric Population Estimation (격자크기가 밀도구분적 인구추정의 정확성에 미치는 영향)

  • JUN, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.127-143
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    • 2016
  • This study explored the variability in the accuracy of dasymetric population estimation with different grid cell sizes. Dasymetric population maps for Fulton County, Georgia in the US were generated from 30m to 420m at intervals of 30m using an automated intelligent dasymetric mapping technique, population data, and original and simulated land use and cover data. The accuracies of dasymetric population maps were evaluated using RMSE and adjusted RMSE statistics. Lumped fractal dimension values were calculated for the dasymetric population maps generated from resolutions of 30m to 420m using the triangular prism surface area (TPSA) method. The results show that a grid cell size of 210m or smaller is required to estimate population more accurately in terms of thematic accuracy, but a grid cell size of 30m is required to meet an acceptable spatial accuracy of dasymetric population estimation in the study area. The fractal analysis also indicates that a grid cell size of 120m is the optimal resolution for dasymetric population estimation in the study area.