• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population Dynamics

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Modeling on Ratio-Dependent Three-Trophic Population Dynamics Responding to Environmental Impacts (외부 환경영향에 대한 밀도비 의존 3영양단계의 개체군 동태 모델)

  • Lee, Sang-Hee;Choi, Kyung-Hee;Chon, Tae-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.37 no.3 s.108
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    • pp.304-312
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    • 2004
  • The transient dynamics of three-trophic populations (prey, predator, and super predator) using ratio-dependent models responding to environmental impacts is analyzed. Environmental factors were divided into two parts: periodic factor (e.g., temperature) and general noise. Periodic factor was addressed as a frequency and bias, while general noise was expressed as a Gaussian distribution. Temperature bias ${\varepsilon}$, temperature frequency ${\Omega}$, and Gaussian noise amplitude ${\`{O}}$ accordingly revealed diverse status of population dynamics in three-trophic food chain, including extinction of species. The model showed stable limit cycles and strange attractors in the long-time behavior depending upon various values of the parameters. The dynamic behavior of the system appeared to be sensitive to changes in environmental input. The parameters of environmental input play an important role in determining extinction time of super predator and predator populations.

Sustainable Land Use within a Limit of Environmental Carrying Capacity in Metropolitan Area, Korea (지속가능한 발전을 위한 환경용량의 산정과 토지이용형태 연구 - 수도권지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Moon, Tae-Hoon
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.51-82
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is exploring changes in land use pattern when considering environmental carrying capacity. A sustainable development requires a society to define sustainability constraints, environmental carrying capacity. Environmental carrying capacity can be defined as a level of human activity a region can sustain at a desired level of quality of environment. This concept of environmental carrying capacity can be applied to land use to explore sustainable land use pattern. Since land use pattern can affect environment in an important way, exploring sustainable land use pattern within the limit of environmental carrying capacity can suggest useful implications for a sustainable regional management and planning. For this purpose, this paper built the environmental carrying capacity land use model and applied it to the Metropolitan Area, Korea. System dynamics modeling methods was used to build the model. The model developed in this paper consisted of 6sectors; population, housing, industry, land, environment, and traffic sector. The model limits its main focus on the NO2 level as an indicator of quality of environment in Metropolitan Area. Box model was translated into system dynamics model and combined to urban dynamics model to estimate NO2 level, the maximum number of population, industry structure, housing and maximum amount of land use for industrial, housing, and green space that can sustain desirable NO2 level. Metropolitan area was divided into 16 areas and the model was applied to each area. Since NO2 is flowing in and out from each area, model was built to allow this transboundering nature of air pollutants. Based on the model estimation, several policy implications for a sustainable land use pattern was discussed.

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A Study on the Analysis of Population Dynamics and the Model of population Relocation (人口過程의 分析과 人口配置計劃의 모델模索)

  • 박찬계;함종욱
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.10
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 1981
  • Regional relocation of population in Korea is required strongly from natural and environmental sides for substantial growth of economy and the rigorous revival national economy against especially internationalization. This paper aimed for analysed the population distribution by regional and special characteristics of the inter-migration and showed the direction of population policy through the model building. Relocation methods of population by region has been examined through the process from the approach method by Haurin's production function to the approach by the utility function. The examination of the development model is done efficiently, how utility these approach models are depends on that scientific and composite plan for population problems against forced policy should be taken precedence.

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System Thinking Perspective on the Dynamic Relationship between Spatial Characteristics of Compact City and Urban Sustainability (시스템사고로 본 압축도시의 공간적 특성과 지속가능성과의 동태적 관계)

  • Kim, Lee-Young;Moon, Tae-Hoon
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.5-28
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to review relationship between spatial characteristics of compact city and urban sustainabiliy from system dynamics perspective using causal loop analysis. It has been argued that spatial characteristics of compact city, high population density and mixed land use, are positively related to urban sustainability. However, research results that are not consistent with pros of compact city argument have been accumulated too. It is especially true when spatial characteristics of compact city are examined with regard to each dimension of sustainablility: economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Reviewing each dimension of sustainability with regard to spatial characteristics based on causal loop analysis, this paper provides more clear understanding on relationship between compact city and sustainability. Also this paper provides a base for system dynamics simulation for future study.

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The Study on the Human Resource Forecasting Model Development for Electric Power Industry (전력산업 인력수급 예측모형 개발 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Suk;Lee, Geun-Joon;Kwak, Sang-Man
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 2006
  • A series of system dynamics model was developed for forecasting demand and supply of human resource in the electricity industry. To forecast demand of human resource in the electric power industry, BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) methodology was used. To forecast supply of human resource in the electric power industry, forecasting on the population of our country and the number of students in the department of electrical engineering were performed. After performing computer simulation with developed system dynamics model, it is discovered that the shortage of human resource in the electric power industry will be 3,000 persons per year from 2006 to 2015, and more than a double of current budget is required to overcome this shortage of human resource.

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Estimation of Survivorship and Population Dynamics of White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons) in Junam Reservoir, Korea (주남저수지에 도래하는 쇠기러기의 PVA에 의한 생존확률 추정 연구)

  • Park, Ji-Eun;Lee, Sang-Don
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.293-299
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    • 2009
  • Wintering migratory species of white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) are common visitor in South Korea, and this study examined the survivorship of white-fronted geese in the Junam Reservoir with the application of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) technique. In Junam PVA analysis was done for the next 50 years using factors of breeding population, sex ratios, survivorship in the VORTEX program. As a result white-fronted geese will reach to carrying capacity within 40 years, and population will reach to carrying capacity later when it becomes smaller. Also with a large initial population white-fronted geese will reach to carrying capacity earlier. In conclusion, for the next 50 years the white-fronted geese are expected to a long-term survival with stable condition with survivorship (0.03) and extinction rate (0.0).