• Title/Summary/Keyword: Political Risk

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Comparative Analysis of Factors in Country Risk between Cambodia and Vietnam (캄보디아와 베트남의 국가위험도 영향요인 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Changkeun;Choo, Yongsik
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze factors in country risk between Cambodia and Vietnam. OECD and the Export-Import Ban of Korea assess country risk of Cambodia more highly than Vietnam. As results of the parametric tests for evaluation factors on the basis of country risk classification, the economic growth rate, the foreign trade index, and the foreign exchange reserves among the economic risks with the corruption index as the political and social risk have statistically significant effect on the difference between country risks of two countries. However, discriminant factor analysis indicates that the economic growth rate, the foreign exchange reserves, and the corruption index are key variables, which represent the difference between country risks of Cambodia and Vietnam. Consequently, the government of Cambodia needs to try to root out the corruption and to expand trade through increasing export for lowering the country risk to the level of Vietnam. Vietnam would also need to focus on attaining the sustainable high economic growth rate and increasing the foreign exchange reserves.

Establishing the Importance Weight Model of IT Investment Evaluation Criteria through AHP Analysis (AHP 기법을 적용한 IT프로젝트 사전타당성 평가항목의 가중치 산출)

  • Kwon, Min-Young;Koo, Bon-Jae;Lee, Kuk-Hie
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.265-285
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this research is to identify the major evaluation criteria of IT investment projects and establish the importance weights of criteria through AHP analysis. Seven evaluation criteria which have been drawn from prior studies and industry practices are direct costs, indirect costs, financial benefits, strategic value, risk, technical necessity, and political considerations. Data have been collected from 95 IT projects in 40 public organizations and private firms in Korea. After having applied the data reliability test, 79 projects have been selected. The results of AHP analysis show the importance weights and priorities of seven evaluation criteria as follows: financial benefits 25.2%, strategic value 22.36%, direct costs 14.34%, risk 12.10%, technical necessity 11.55%, political considerations 8.3%, and indirect costs 6.48%. And the weights of seven criteria shows considerable differences among three different IT project types such as transactional, informational, and infrastructural.

Scientific Governance through Public Participation: Historical Epistemology of Divergent Positions in the Participatory Turn of STS (시민참여를 통한 과학기술 거버넌스: STS의 '참여적 전환' 내의 다양한 입장에 대한 역사적 인식론)

  • Hyun, Jae Hwan;Hong, Sung Ook
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-79
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    • 2012
  • This paper first aims to reveal that, in the current trend of 'the participatory turn' in STS, there are divergent positions subtly different from each other, and that the understanding of these divergent positions can be significant to study the differences, similarities and interfaces between the various models of scientific governance discussed in STS and those in risk governance developed by risk studies. Secondly, this paper shows that theoretical differences among STS scholars on scientific governance and public participation goes back to the 1970s and 1980s, during which they first laid down the conceptual basis of STS. All ideas and theories have their own historicity. This article is about the 'historical epistemology' of the participatory turn of STS, and is to seek 'political epistemology' that can become a shared vision of STS.

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Global Project Finance Trends and Commercial Risk Analysis (글로벌 프로젝트 파이낸스 최근 동향 및 상업위험 분석)

  • Kim, Sang Man
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.61
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    • pp.273-302
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    • 2014
  • Project finance ("PF") is a method of raising long-term debt financing based on lending against the cash flow generated by the project alone. Project finance is a nonrecourse or limited recourse financing structure against the sponsors(or the investors). The debt terms in a project finance are not based on the creditor's credit support or on the value of the assets of the project. Lenders rely on the future cash flow to be generated by the project for debt repayment and interest, rather than the value of the project or the credit ratings of the sponsors. The non-recourse or limited recourse financing usually prompt potential project finance lenders to assess carefully all possible risks that might arise in a project to ensure that those risks are mitigated and controlled. In this respect, project finance is a opposite financing method of corporate finance. Project finance has rapidly grown over the last 20 years due to the worldwide process of privatization of public sector and development of natural resources. Global project finance volume reached the record USD 406.5 billion in 2011. In 2012, however, Global project finance volume dropped 6% to USD 382.3 billion. Infrastructure overtook Energy to lead all sectors with USD 113.6 billion. It is generally recognized that there are more and higher risks in project finance compared with corporate finance. Project finance is exposed to commercial risks as well as political risks. The main commercial risks are completion risks, environmental risks, operating risks, input supply risks, revenue risks, etc, and the main political risks are currency convertibility and transfer risks, expropriation risks, war and civil disturbance risks, risks of breach of government concession agreement, etc. Completion risks include permits risks, risks relating to the EPC Contractor, construction cost overrun, delay in completion, inadequate performance on completion, etc.

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농식품안전 정책방향

  • Jo, Jang-Yong
    • 한국환경농학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.07a
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    • pp.3-18
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    • 2009
  • It is difficult for consumers to satisfy high safety request with post-management method such as inspection and surveillance, as various changes in-and-out of the country associated with food safety. In terms of food safety problems related to foods, it is crucial to recognize public health and consumer protection and construct pre-preventive Food Control System. A joint committee, FAO/WHO made the following consultations to the National Food Safety System. ${\circ}$ Approach entirely from farm to table ${\circ}$ Get ready for Risk Analysis System ${\circ}$ Secure transparency ${\circ}$ Establish the optimal policy by evaluating the effect of regulation When it comes to summarizing the consultation, it would be accumulated as two key words; "Efficiency" and "Credibility". Whereas the problem of efficiency focuses on precaution rather than post-management, it requires policy option to maximize consumer's benefit by evaluating the cost for the Food Safety Management and its benefit. Also, analyzing risk's character and amount, demanding an optimal means, and introducing scientific analysis system put much value on the stakeholder's communications are procedure's security which can satisfy both "Efficiency" and "Credibility" simultaneously. Especially, it is emphasized here that Risk Assessment need to be separated from Risk Management. This action is a valid means of credibility security throughout improving transparency. A number of nations and organizations have reformed the method of food management passing through reflection and examination of the prior National Food Safety Management since BSE occurred in Britain, 1996. FSA; Food Standard Agency, AFFSA, EFSA, BfR, and FSC are Risk Assessment Organization functionally separated from Risk Management Organization, JECFA, JMCFA, JMPR, JEMRA in Codex charge Risk Assessment internationally. In case of advanced countries excluding several those such as The U.S. and so forth, though these Risk Assessment Organizations are either separated functionally within Risk Management Organization or operated as apart organ, common factors are in which it has independence as Science Base. While securing independence of Risk Assessment Function, it is a tendency Risk Management should be functionally unified into efficiency as well. Though Germany constructs integral Risk Management System of diverse ways according to social and political conditions of each country such as GFOCP, DVFA, SNFA, CFIS and AQIS, there is a key word in the center, "Securing efficiency of Food Safety Management". However our nation has a representative plural;diversified system with The U.S., we took a step forward for unification as empowering policy's generalization;adjustment and Risk Assessment Function by means of enacting the "Food Safety Fundamental Law" in 2008 and establishing the "Food Safety Policy Commission" with private and governmental sectors in the Prime Minister's office. Even though the unification of Risk Management hereby increased, there is the lack of strengthening function of Risk Assessment and securing independence. It needs to be required for the professional committee in Food Safety Policy Commission to develop as a exclusive office of Risk Assessment by separating from a policy decision. Administrative Branches should reinforce feeble functions such as fundamental investigation;research for carrying out Risk Assessment with securing efficiency throughout reassessment of prior Risk Management Means.

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Risk Management Process through a Phase of $Economic{\cdot}Financial$ Feasibility Study (경제적${\cdot}$재무적 타당성분석 단계에서의 리스크 관리절차 연구)

  • Park Young-Min;Kim Soo-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.454-459
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    • 2003
  • Feasibility study on large scale projects like an investment on infrastructure development is very important because it provides fundamental data which determine the total investment size and duration. However, previous feasibility studies have a few problems of ambiguous estimation standards, unsystematical estimation methods, and so on. Accordingly, this study intends to regulate tile problems on economic feasibility as well as financial feasibility study which have been considered more critical in recent time, subsequently presents a reform measure. Also, this study identifies predictable risks during the feasibility study, presents a scheme which lets investor and owner control the risk themselves through a process which uses theoretical and political management plans.

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Private Equity Valuation under Model Uncertainty

  • BIAN, Yuxiang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2022
  • The study incorporates model uncertainty into the private equity (PE) valuation model (SWY model) (Sorensen et al., 2014) to evaluate how model uncertainty distorts the leverage and valuations of PE funds. This study applies a continuous-time model to PE project valuation, modeling the LPs' goal as multiplier preferences provided by Anderson et al. (2003), and assuming that LPs' aversion to model uncertainty causes endogenous belief distortions with entropy as a measure of model discrepancies. Concerns regarding model uncertainty, according to the theoretical model, have an unclear effect on LPs' risk attitude and GPs' decision, which is based on the value of the PE asset. It also demonstrates that model uncertainty lowers the certainty-equivalent valuation of the LPs. Finally, we compare the outcomes of the Full-spanning risk model with the Non-spanned risk model, and they match the intuitive economic reasoning. The most important implication is that model uncertainty will have negative effects on the LPs' certainty-equivalent valuation but has ambiguous effects on the portfolio allocation choice of liquid wealth. Our works contribute to two literature streams. The first is the literature that models the PE funds. The second is the literature introduces model uncertainty into standard finance models.

Social Issue Risk Type Classification based on Social Bigdata (소셜 빅데이터 기반 사회적 이슈 리스크 유형 분류)

  • Oh, Hyo-Jung;An, Seung-Kwon;Kim, Yong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2016
  • In accordance with the increased political and social utilization of social media, demands on online trend analysis and monitoring technologies based on social bigdata are also increasing rapidly. In this paper, we define 'risk' as issues which have probability of turn to negative public opinion among big social issues and classify their types in details. To define risk types, we conduct a complete survey on news documents and analyzed characteristics according to issue domains. We also investigate cross-medias analysis to find out how different public media and personalized social media. At the result, we define 58 risk types for 6 domains and developed automatic classification model based on machine learning algorithm. Based on empirical experiments, we prove the possibility of automatic detection for social issue risk in social media.

Financial and Economic Risk Prevention and Countermeasures Based on Big Data and Internet of Things

  • Songyan Liu;Pengfei Liu;Hecheng Wang
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.391-398
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    • 2024
  • Given the further promotion of economic globalization, China's financial market has also expanded. However, at present, this market faces substantial risks. The main financial and economic risks in China are in the areas of policy, credit, exchange rates, accounting, and interest rates. The current status of China's financial market is as follows: insufficient attention from upper management; insufficient innovation in the development of the financial economy; and lack of a sound financial and economic risk protection system. To further understand the current situation of China's financial market, we conducted a questionnaire survey on the financial market and reached the following conclusions. A comprehensive enterprise questionnaire from the government's perspective, the enterprise's perspective and the individual's perspective showed that the following problems exist in the financial and economic risk prevention aspects of big data and Internet of Things in China. The political system at the country's grassroots level is not comprehensive enough. The legal regulatory system is not comprehensive enough, leading to serious incidents of loan fraud. The top management of enterprises does not pay enough attention to financial risk prevention. Therefore, we constructed a financial and economic risk prevention model based on big data and Internet of Things that has effective preventive capabilities for both enterprises and individuals. The concept reflected in the model is to obtain data through Internet of Things, use big data for screening, and then pass these data to the big data analysis system at the grassroots level for analysis. The data initially screened as big data are analyzed in depth, and we obtain the original data that can be used to make decisions. Finally, we put forward the corresponding opinions, and their main contents represent the following points: the key is to build a sound national financial and economic risk prevention and assessment system, the guarantee is to strengthen the supervision of national financial risks, and the purpose is to promote the marketization of financial interest rates.

Risk and Opportunity of Interest Conflict Settlement : Introduction of Consumer Collective Lawsuit (Verbandsklage) (이해관계 갈등조정의 위기와 기회 - 소비자단체소송제도의 도입 -)

  • Min, Hyeon-Seon;Jang, Ju-Seong
    • 한국디지털정책학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 2006
  • The purport of this paper is to deduce political implication and significance of the proposed redress scheme of 'Consumer Collective Lawsuit (hereinunder "CCL")' under way to be introduced by the Korean government via various assessments per each phase of policy implementation process. To this end, the paper classifies the subject policy (referring to CCL) implementation process into 4 phases: policy origination, policy enactment, policy advertisement, and policy execution. Based on the said classification, assessments per each phase together with pros and cons analysis have been conducted. Through the aforementioned analysis, the paper concludes the following political implication and significance of CCL under way of introduction: - 1. In the case of policy origination led by external parties, a social consensus by and from involved parties with various interests is the most critical; 2. Prior feasibility and/or suitability study is also crucial in the policy implementation procedure; 3. To mitigate inter-ministerial conflicts that might arise from the due policy making procedure, democratization of conflict settlement mechanism, and institutionalization of participation in and disclosure of policy making process are cal led upon; and 4. Prior planning wi th respect to the public relation and advertisements of the subject policy on the table poses substantial significance.

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