• Title/Summary/Keyword: Policy network

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The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

The Role of the Soft Law for Space Debris Mitigation in International Law (국제법상 우주폐기물감축 연성법의 역할에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Taek
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.469-497
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    • 2015
  • In 2009 Iridium 33, a satellite owned by the American Iridium Communications Inc. and Kosmos-2251, a satellite owned by the Russian Space Forces, collided at a speed of 42,120 km/h and an altitude of 789 kilometers above the Taymyr Peninsula in Siberia. NASA estimated that the satellite collision had created approximately 1,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters, in addition to many smaller ones. By July 2011, the U.S. Space Surveillance Network(SSN) had catalogued over 2,000 large debris fragments. On January 11, 2007 China conducted a test on its anti-satellite missile. A Chinese weather satellite, the FY-1C polar orbit satellite, was destroyed by the missile that was launched using a multistage solid-fuel. The test was unprecedented for having created a record amount of debris. At least 2,317 pieces of trackable size (i.e. of golf ball size or larger) and an estimated 150,000 particles were generated as a result. As far as the Space Treaties such as 1967 Outer Space Treaty, 1968 Rescue Agreement, 1972 Liability Convention, 1975 Registration Convention and 1979 Moon Agreement are concerned, few provisions addressing the space environment and debris in space can be found. In the early years of space exploration dating back to the late 1950s, the focus of international law was on the establishment of a basic set of rules on the activities undertaken by various states in outer space.. Consequently environmental issues, including those of space debris, did not receive the priority they deserve when international space law was originally drafted. As shown in the case of the 1978 "Cosmos 954 Incident" between Canada and USSR, the two parties settled it by the memorandum between two nations not by the Space Treaties to which they are parties. In 1994 the 66th conference of International Law Association(ILA) adopted "International Instrument on the Protection of the Environment from Damage Caused by Space Debris". The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee(IADC) issued some guidelines for the space debris which were the basis of "the UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines" which had been approved by the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space(COPUOS) in its 527th meeting. On December 21 2007 this guideline was approved by UNGA Resolution 62/217. The EU has proposed an "International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities" as a transparency and confidence-building measure. It was only in 2010 that the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee began considering as an agenda item the long-term sustainability of outer space. A Working Group on the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities was established, the objectives of which include identifying areas of concern for the long-term sustainability of outer space activities, proposing measures that could enhance sustainability, and producing voluntary guidelines to reduce risks to long-term sustainability. By this effort "Guidelines on the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities" are being under consideration. In the case of "Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exp1oration and Use of Outer Space" adopted by UNGA Resolution 1962(XVIII), December 13 1963, the 9 principles proclaimed in that Declaration, although all of them incorporated in the Space Treaties, could be regarded as customary international law binding all states considering the time and opinio juris by the responses of the world. Although the soft law such as resolutions, guidelines are not binding law, there are some provisions which have a fundamentally norm-creating character and customary international law. In November 12 1974 UN General Assembly recalled through a Resolution 3232(XXIX) "Review of the role of International Court of Justice" that the development of international law may be reflected, inter alia, by the declarations and resolutions of the General Assembly which may to that extend be taken into consideration by the judgements of the International Court of Justice. We are expecting COPUOS which gave birth 5 Space Treaties that it could give us binding space debris mitigation measures to be implemented based on space debris mitigation soft law in the near future.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

Trends of Cancer Mortality in Gyeongsangbuk - do from 1991 to 1998 (경상북도 주민의 암사망 추이)

  • Kim, Byung-Guk;Lee, Sung-Kook;Kim, Tea-Woong;Lee, Do-Young;Lee, Kyeong-Soo
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.59-78
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    • 2001
  • Data on reported cancer mortality in the Gyeongsangbuk- do province from 1991 to 1998 were collected and analyzed using the existing mortality reporting system as well as the public health network to furnish accurate data on reported cancer death and to collect data to establish a high quality district health plan. The overall crude death rate in Gyeongsangbuk province in 1991 was 74.56 deaths per 100,000-person but this rate increased to 79.22 in 1998. Among the deaths, the overall death rate of cancer was 16.7% in 1991, which increased to 19.3% in 1998; specifically the death rate of men increased from 19.4% in 1991 to 22.3% in 1998 while that of women increased from 12.4% in 1991 to 15.5% in 1998, showing a more increase among women. The types of cancer and associated death rates in 1991 were gastric cancer(41.5%), followed by liver cancer (28.8%), and lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(8.7%) and in 1998, gastric cancer (24.7%), followed by liver cancer(22.7%), lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(19.3%), showing the same order. For men and women, gastric cancer(40.2% and 44.7%, respectively) was the most common cancer death, followed by liver cancer(33.7% and 16.7%, respectively), and lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(10.2% and 5.0%, respectively) in 1991. However, in 1998, gastric cancer(27.8%) was still the most common type among both men and women, followed by liver cancer (18.5%) and lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(12.7%), showing the most decrease in gastric cancer but most increase in lung and bronchogenic carcinoma. The age- adjusted mortality rates by gastric cancer, hepatoma, laryngeal carcinoma were decreased in both male and female, and also uterine cancer was decreased in female. The age- adjusted mortality rates by lung and bronchogenic carcinoma, pancreatic cancer, rectal cancer were increased in both male and female, and also breast cancer was increased in female. The calculated overall age-adjusted death rate based on the 1995 population was 84.25 in 1991, which decreased to 77.67 in 1998. Male death rate decreased significantly from 119.81 in 1991 to 101.82 in 1998 while the female death rate increased from 48.64 in 1991 to 53.80 in 1998. A census of cancer death rate using accurate death records is important for the establishment of proper and high-quality district health and medical plan and policy. The effort to improve the accuracy of death reports using the health facility network, as had been attempted by this study, can be continued. Furthermore, there must be a way for the Health and Welfare Department to use the death reports to improve the present reporting system. Lastly, additional studies need to be conducted to investigate how much the accuracy was improved by the supplemented death reports in this study.

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A study on the Success Factors and Strategy of Information Technology Investment Based on Intelligent Economic Simulation Modeling (지능형 시뮬레이션 모형을 기반으로 한 정보기술 투자 성과 요인 및 전략 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2013
  • Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

A Comparative Study on Failure Pprediction Models for Small and Medium Manufacturing Company (중소제조기업의 부실예측모형 비교연구)

  • Hwangbo, Yun;Moon, Jong Geon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2016
  • This study has analyzed predication capabilities leveraging multi-variate model, logistic regression model, and artificial neural network model based on financial information of medium-small sized companies list in KOSDAQ. 83 delisted companies from 2009 to 2012 and 83 normal companies, i.e. 166 firms in total were sampled for the analysis. Modelling with training data was mobilized for 100 companies inlcuding 50 delisted ones and 50 normal ones at random out of the 166 companies. The rest of samples, 66 companies, were used to verify accuracies of the models. Each model was designed by carrying out T-test with 79 financial ratios for the last 5 years and identifying 9 significant variables. T-test has shown that financial profitability variables were major variables to predict a financial risk at an early stage, and financial stability variables and financial cashflow variables were identified as additional significant variables at a later stage of insolvency. When predication capabilities of the models were compared, for training data, a logistic regression model exhibited the highest accuracy while for test data, the artificial neural networks model provided the most accurate results. There are differences between the previous researches and this study as follows. Firstly, this study considered a time-series aspect in light of the fact that failure proceeds gradually. Secondly, while previous studies constructed a multivariate discriminant model ignoring normality, this study has reviewed the regularity of the independent variables, and performed comparisons with the other models. Policy implications of this study is that the reliability for the disclosure documents is important because the simptoms of firm's fail woule be shown on financial statements according to this paper. Therefore institutional arragements for restraing moral laxity from accounting firms or its workers should be strengthened.

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A Study in an Effective Programs for Emergency Care Delivery System (응급의료 전달체계의 충실 방안)

  • Kwon Sook Hee
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 1995
  • As the society is being industrialized, the fast-paced economic development that has caused substantial increase in cerebrovascular and coronary artery diseases and the industrial development and increased use of means of transportation have resulted in the rapid rise of incidents in external injuries as well. So the pubic has become acutely aware of the need for fast and effective emergency care delivery system. The goal of emergency care delivery system is to meet the emergency care needs of patients. The emergency care delivery system is seeking to efficiently satisfy the care needs of people. Therefore the purpose of this study is designed to develop an effective programs for emergency care delivery system in Korea. The following specific objectives were investigated. This emergency care delivery system must have the necessary man power, for transfering the patients, communication net work, and emergency care facilities. 1) Man power Emergency care requires n0t only specialized traning in the emergency treatment but also knowledge and experience i11 other related area, so emergency care personnel traning program should be designed in order to adapt to the specific need of emergency patients. It will be necessary to ensure professional personnel who aquires the sufficient traning and experience for emergency care and to look for legal basis. We have to develop re-educational programs for emergency nurse specialist. They should be received speciality of emergency nursing care so that they will work actively and positively in emergency part. Emergency medical doctor and nurse specialist should be given an education which is related in emergency and critical care. Emergency care personnel will continue to provide both acute and continuing care as partner with other medical team. 2) Transfering the patients. Successful management of pre-hospital care requires adequate traning for the emergency medical technician. Traning program should be required to participate in a actual first aids activites in order to have apportunities to acquire practical skills as well as theoretical knowledge. The system of emergency medical technician should be remarkablly successful with first responder firefighters. Establishing this system must add necessary ambulances operating at any given time. It will be necessary to standardize the ambulance size and equipment. Ambulance should be arranged with each and every fire station. 3) Communication net work. The head office of emergency commumication network should be arranged with the head office of fire station in community. It is proposed that Hot-line system for emergency care should be introduce. High controlled ambulance and thirtial emergency center should simultaneously equip critical-line in order to communication with each other. Ordinary ambulance and secondary emergency facility should also simultaneously equip emergency-line in order to communication with each other. 4) Emergency care facilities. Primary emergency care facilities should be covered with the ambulatory emergency patients-minor illness and injuires. Secondary emergency care facilities should be covered with the emergency admission patients. Third emergency care center should be covered with the critical patients who need special treatments and operation. Secondary and third emergency care facilities should employ emergency medical doctor and emergency nurse specialist to treat in-patients with severe and acute illness and multiple injuires. It should be fashioned for a system of emergency facilities that meets emergency patients needs. Provide incentives for increased number of emergency care facilities with traning in personal/clinical emergency care. 5) Finance It is recommended to put the finance of a emergency care on a firm basis. The emergency care delivery system should be managed by the government or accreditted organizations. In order to facilitate this relevant program the fund is needed for more efficient and effective emergency researchs, service, programs, and policy. 6) Gaining understanding and co-operation of pubic It is also important to undertake pubic education to improve understanding of first aids and C. P. R of individuals, communities and business. It is proposed that teachers and health officers be certified in C. P. R. The C. P. R education can be powerful influence save lives. Lastly appropriate emergency care information must be provided to the pubic for assisting them in choosing emergency care.

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The Value of Entrepreneurial Orientation and Social Capital for Enhancing Collective Performance in R&D Collaborations of Korean Ventures (벤처기업의 R&D협력에서 사회적 자본과 기업가적 지향성이 협력성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Seo, Ribin
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-33
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    • 2017
  • In the last decades, technology-oriented small firms, i.e. venture businesses, have been increasingly engaged in R&D collaborations with external parties as strategic means for technological innovation. Despite ample evidence on the benefit of such collaborations for the firms, there has been less attention to examining whether and how the firms' social interactions with cooperating partners and their managerial characteristics contribute to that benefit. Drawing on the theories of social capital and entrepreneurial orientation, this study is to remedy this gap. The theory of social capital, referring to a sum of the value and potential resources embedded in social relationships of collectives, provides an integrated view of social factors among cooperating partners, e.g. strong ties, network stability, trust, reciprocity, shared vision and value. It categorizes these factors into structural, relational, and cognitive dimensions of social capital. Entrepreneurial orientation theory captures firms' managerial characteristics as a combination of innovativeness, proactiveness, and risk-taking. This addresses firms' managerial process to utilize and combine internal and external resources for wealth creation and opportunity realization. Against this background, this study investigates what roles social capital among cooperating R&D partners and entrepreneurial orientation of the collaborating firms play for collective performance improvement in R&D collaborations. In terms of the collective performance, this study adopts two indicators: technological competitiveness and business performance. Technological competitiveness refers to the contribution of a technology developed by a cooperative R&D project to competitive advantage of a firm while business performance is defined as the financial and economic outcome of a collaboration. Using a sample of 218 Korean ventures engaging in R&D collaboration with external parties, the author finds the significant effects of social capital (i.e. structural, relational, and cognitive dimensions) and entrepreneurial orientation (i.e. innovativeness, proactiveness, and risk-taking) on both of the technological competitiveness and the business performance. Further, the higher the social capital among R&D partners, the more likely it is to foster the entrepreneurial orientation at firm-level. Most importantly, the entrepreneurial orientation at firm-level is an significant mediator of the relationship between social capital and collective performance. Beyond these novel empirical findings, this study contributes to the literature on R&D collaboration. The findings' implications for management and policy are deeply discussed in the conclusion.

The Analysis of the Successful Factors from User Side of MMORPG (사용자 측면에서의 MMORPG <월드 오브 워크래프트> 성공요인 분석)

  • Baek, Jaeyong;Kim, Kenneth Chi Ho
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.42
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    • pp.151-175
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    • 2016
  • The game industry has evolved from mobile games to PC online games after the smart-phone industry was opened up. In this environment, the game industry has rather been negatively developing its commercials means than the sufficient fundamental entertainment to the users. Especially, many games were released with better graphic qualities yet poor originality, continuing to be popular without enhancing the market itself. Moreover, the user's recognition level has improved. The users share their online gaming experience easily with the development of network environment. They receive the feedbacks on the quality of the game through the online channels and media by sharing them together. The high margin of the game industry will lead to the negative feedbacks of the users, effecting them to critique the content although the market looks good for now. The game industry's evolution has to be reviewed in the perspective of users, to look back at the successful cases of the past before the mobile era by analyzing and indicating the quality of the games and content's direction. This research is focused on the success factors of from the user's point of view, which has been widely claimed as a popular game franchise publicly before the mobile games had risen. WOW has been the most successful MMORPG game with its user record of 1.2 million till now. For these reasons, this study analyzes 's success factors from the user's point of view by configuring five expert groups, sequentially applying expert group survey, interview, Jobs-to-be-done and Fishbein Model as UX methodologies based on the business model to see through its long term rein in the industry. Consequently, The success factors from the user side of MMORPG provides an opportunity for the users to interact deeply with the game by (1) using well designed 'world view' over 10 years, (2) providing 'national policy' that is based on the locations of the users' culture and language, (3) providing 'expansions' with changes in time to give the digging elements to the users.

A Comparative Study on the Recognition of Urban Agriculture between Urban Farmers and Public Officials (도시농업인과 공무원의 도시농업 인식 비교·평가)

  • Park, Won-Zei;Koo, Bon-Hak;Park, Mi-Ok;Kwon, Hyo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.90-103
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to be able to understand the problems within the urban agriculture policy promoted by the Government and local autonomous entity base on the comparison of the consciousness of the urban agriculture between urban farmers and public officials and to inquire into the further revitalization scheme in the end. For this purpose, this study drew implications through studying latest trend and the legislation of domestic and foreign urban agriculture and then conducted a questionnaire survey of urban farmers and public officials. Because of this research, the revitalization schemes of urban agriculture are as follows: First, it's necessary to secure the usable arable land, such as the green roof, community garden, as well as urban agriculture park, etc. Second, it is necessary to establish the urban agriculture relations act suited for the actual circumstances of our country and to back up the legislation at an institutional, technological level in terms of a nation in order to secure the durability of urban agriculture. Third, it is advisable to make a proposal about the problems in time of activities for cultivation by forming a network between urban farmers and public officials and to prepare the plan for the active exchange of farming technologies. Fourth, it's necessary to activate the community gardens by supplying the education through cultivation method & its management method, and a variety of urban-agriculture-participation programs. Fifth, it is necessary to set up the specialized and practical education through an institute for landscape architecture. Sixth, it is necessary to induce the spontaneous participation in urban agriculture from urban farmers accompanied by the activities for promotion that are worth arousing urban farmers' interest. Lastly, it is also necessary to establish a legal basis of urban agricultural parks and facilities as well as to promote a search for multilateral policies and their practice so that the further urban agriculture can be stably continued within city boundaries.