• Title/Summary/Keyword: Policy Simulation

Search Result 1,007, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Estimation of Growing Stock and Carbon Stock based on Components of Forest Type Map: The case of Kangwon Province (임상도 특성에 따른 임목축적 및 탄소저장량 추정: 강원도를 중심으로)

  • Kim, So Won;Son, Yeong Mo;Kim, Eun Sook;Park, Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.103 no.3
    • /
    • pp.446-452
    • /
    • 2014
  • This research aimed to provide a method to estimate growing stock and carbon stock using the characteristics of forest type map such as the age-class, DBH class and crown density class. We transformed the growing stock data of national forest inventory (mainly Kangwon-do province) onto those of time when the forest type map was established. We developed a simulation model for the growing stock using the transformed data and the characteristics of forest type map by the quantification method I. By comparing partial correlation coefficient, we found that quantification of growing stock was largely affected by age-class followed by crown density class, forest type and DBH class. The growing stock, was estimated as minimum in the broadleaved forest with age-class II, DBH class 'Small', and crown density class 'Low' as $20.0m^3/ha$, whereas showed maximum value in the coniferous forest with age-class VI, DBH class 'Large', and crown density class 'High' as $305.0m^3/ha$. The growing stock for coniferous, broadleaved, and mixed forest were estimated as $30.5{\sim}305.0m^3/ha$, $20.0{\sim}200.4m^3/ha$, and $23.8{\sim}238.1m^3/ha$, respectively. When we compared the carbon stock by forest type, the carbon stock by age class based on growing stock was maximum when DBH class was 'Large' and crown density class was 'High' regardless of forest type. This estimation of growing stock by using characteristic of forest type can be used to estimate the changes in growing stock and carbon stock resulting from deforestation or natural disaster. In addition, we hope it provide a useful advice when forest officials and policy makers have to make decisions in regard to forest management.

Factors Influencing the Adoption of Location-Based Smartphone Applications: An Application of the Privacy Calculus Model (스마트폰 위치기반 어플리케이션의 이용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인: 프라이버시 계산 모형의 적용)

  • Cha, Hoon S.
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.7-29
    • /
    • 2012
  • Smartphone and its applications (i.e. apps) are increasingly penetrating consumer markets. According to a recent report from Korea Communications Commission, nearly 50% of mobile subscribers in South Korea are smartphone users that accounts for over 25 million people. In particular, the importance of smartphone has risen as a geospatially-aware device that provides various location-based services (LBS) equipped with GPS capability. The popular LBS include map and navigation, traffic and transportation updates, shopping and coupon services, and location-sensitive social network services. Overall, the emerging location-based smartphone apps (LBA) offer significant value by providing greater connectivity, personalization, and information and entertainment in a location-specific context. Conversely, the rapid growth of LBA and their benefits have been accompanied by concerns over the collection and dissemination of individual users' personal information through ongoing tracking of their location, identity, preferences, and social behaviors. The majority of LBA users tend to agree and consent to the LBA provider's terms and privacy policy on use of location data to get the immediate services. This tendency further increases the potential risks of unprotected exposure of personal information and serious invasion and breaches of individual privacy. To address the complex issues surrounding LBA particularly from the user's behavioral perspective, this study applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) to explore the factors that influence the adoption of LBA. According to PCM, consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. Consistent with the principal notion of PCM, we investigated how individual users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service and locatability act as benefit-side factors and information privacy risks act as a risk-side factor accompanying LBA adoption. In addition, we consider the moderating role of trust on the service providers in the prohibiting effects of privacy risks on user intention to adopt LBA. Further we include perceived ease of use and usefulness as additional constructs to examine whether the technology acceptance model (TAM) can be applied in the context of LBA adoption. The research model with ten (10) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 98 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a LBA allows the participant to purchase time-and-location sensitive discounted tickets for nearby stores. Structural equations modeling using partial least square validated the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that six (6) out of ten (10) hypotheses were supported. On the subject of the core PCM, H2 (locatability ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) and H3 (privacy risks ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported, while H1 (personalization ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Further, we could not any interaction effects (personalization X privacy risks, H4 & locatability X privacy risks, H5) on the intention to use LBA. In terms of privacy risks and trust, as mentioned above we found the significant negative influence from privacy risks on intention to use (H3), but positive influence from trust, which supported H6 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The moderating effect of trust on the negative relationship between privacy risks and intention to use LBA was tested and confirmed by supporting H7 (privacy risks X trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The two hypotheses regarding to the TAM, including H8 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ perceived usefulness) and H9 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported; however, H10 (perceived effectiveness ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Results of this study offer the following key findings and implications. First the application of PCM was found to be a good analysis framework in the context of LBA adoption. Many of the hypotheses in the model were confirmed and the high value of $R^2$ (i.,e., 51%) indicated a good fit of the model. In particular, locatability and privacy risks are found to be the appropriate PCM-based antecedent variables. Second, the existence of moderating effect of trust on service provider suggests that the same marginal change in the level of privacy risks may differentially influence the intention to use LBA. That is, while the privacy risks increasingly become important social issues and will negatively influence the intention to use LBA, it is critical for LBA providers to build consumer trust and confidence to successfully mitigate this negative impact. Lastly, we could not find sufficient evidence that the intention to use LBA is influenced by perceived usefulness, which has been very well supported in most previous TAM research. This may suggest that more future research should examine the validity of applying TAM and further extend or modify it in the context of LBA or other similar smartphone apps.

  • PDF

Regional Characteristics of Global Warming: Linear Projection for the Timing of Unprecedented Climate (지구온난화의 지역적 특성: 전례 없는 기후 시기에 대한 선형 전망)

  • SHIN, HO-JEONG;JANG, CHAN JOO
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.49-57
    • /
    • 2016
  • Even if an external forcing that will drive a climate change is given uniformly over the globe, the corresponding climate change and the feedbacks by the climate system differ by region. Thus the detection of global warming signal has been made on a regional scale as well as on a global average against the internal variabilities and other noises involved in the climate change. The purpose of this study is to estimate a timing of unprecedented climate due to global warming and to analyze the regional differences in the estimated results. For this purpose, unlike previous studies that used climate simulation data, we used an observational dataset to estimate a magnitude of internal variability and a future temperature change. We calculated a linear trend in surface temperature using a historical temperature record from 1880 to 2014 and a magnitude of internal variability as the largest temperature displacement from the linear trend. A timing of unprecedented climate was defined as the first year when a predicted minimum temperature exceeds the maximum temperature record in a historical data and remains as such since then. Presumed that the linear trend and the maximum displacement will be maintained in the future, an unprecedented climate over the land would come within 200 years from now in the western area of Africa, the low latitudes including India and the southern part of Arabian Peninsula in Eurasia, the high latitudes including Greenland and the mid-western part of Canada in North America, the low latitudes including Amazon in South America, the areas surrounding the Ross Sea in Antarctica, and parts of East Asia including Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, an unprecedented climate would come later after 400 years in the high latitudes of Eurasia including the northern Europe, the middle and southern parts of North America including the U.S.A. and Mexico. For the ocean, an unprecedented climate would come within 200 years over the Indian Ocean, the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic, parts of the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Ross Sea, and parts of the Arctic Sea. In the meantime, an unprecedented climate would come even after thousands of years over some other regions of ocean including the eastern tropical Pacific and the North Pacific middle latitudes where an internal variability is large. In summary, spatial pattern in timing of unprecedented climate are different for each continent. For the ocean, it is highly affected by large internal variability except for the high-latitude regions with a significant warming trend. As such, a timing of an unprecedented climate would not be uniform over the globe but considerably different by region. Our results suggest that it is necessary to consider an internal variability as well as a regional warming rate when planning a climate change mitigation and adaption policy.

Economic Effects of Eliminating Trade Barriers under Imperfect Competition (불완전경쟁하(不完全競爭下)에서의 무역장벽(貿易障壁) 완화효과(緩和效果))

  • Lee, Hong-gue
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.29-54
    • /
    • 1992
  • Recent studies on the economic effects of trade liberalization and economic integration have emphasized the significant gains associated with product differentiation and scale economies. Securing access to markets in other countries will make it possible to increase product variety and capture scale economies, thus, expanding the gains from trade. Liberalization is also expected to introduce foreign competition into the previously closed market. Concurrently, the liberalization will improve the competitive market environment for firms selling in the domestic market. Firms will be pressed to either exit or reduce cost. The output per firm, then, will increase due to the exit of rival firms, and the average total cost will decline due to the economies of scale. 'Rationalization' of the production process will eventually follow. This paper addresses the economic effects of (counterfactual) bilateral tariff elimination between Korea and Japan. It computationally assesses the gains from liberalization as well as the resource allocations and welfare effects associated with the tariff reduction. The endogenous determination of the key parameters distinguishes this paper from others. The firm's perceived elasticity of demand and elasticity of substitution in the present model are calibrated to be consistent with the base year data. Korea, Japan, and the rest of the world are modeled explicitly. The sectoral coverage of the model includes twenty-three tradable product categories based on three-digit SITC industries and seven nontradable categories based on one-digit SITC industries. Product categories are also classified into perfectly competitive and imperfectly competitive ones. In the imperfectly competitive industries, product differentiation exists at the firm level, while the perfectly competitive industries are characterized by national product differentiation. The simulation results of bilateral tariff reduction are reported. Tariff elimination tends to increase intra-industry trade flows so that the total amount of exports and imports of both countries expand. Yet, Japan is expected to increase the bilateral trade surplus in the wake of the mutual tariff reduction. Terms-of-trade for Korea will not change, while for Japan it will deteriorate. Equivalent variations reflecting the change in consumer surplus (welfare) will favor Korean consumers. Total output, however, will not change substantially, recording 0.5 and 0.6% for Japan and Korea, respectively. An interesting finding in the analysis is that the gains from increased competition and scale efficiency are not as prevailing as expected in theory.

  • PDF

Development of an Adaptive Capacity Indicator to Climate Change in the Agricultural Water Sector (농업용수의 기후변화 적응능력 지표 개발 - 가뭄에 대한 적응을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Ga-Young;Kim, Jin-Teak;Kim, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.35-55
    • /
    • 2008
  • Assessing vulnerability to climate change is the first step to take when setting up appropriate adaptation strategies. Adaptive capacity to climate change is the important factor comprising vulnerability. An adaptive capacity index in agricultural water management system was developed considering agricultural water supply and demand for rice production in Jeolla-do, Korea. The agricultural water supply was assumed to be equal to the amount of water stored in the major agricultural reservoirs, while data on the agricultural water demand was obtained from the dynamic simulation results by Korea Agriculture Corporation(KAC). The spatial unit for analysis was conducted at the county(Si, Gun, Gu) level and temporal scale was based on every month from 1991-2003. Adaptive capacity for drought stress index(ACDS index) was calculated as the percentage of data points where the irrigated water supply was greater than the crop water demand. The ACDS index was compared with SWSCI(Standard Water Storage Capacity Index) and the relationship showed high degree of fit($R^2$=0.84) using the exponential function, indicating that the developed ACDS index is useful for evaluating the status of the balance between agricultural water supply and demand, especially for the small sized agricultural reservoirs. This study provided the methodological basis for developing climate change vulnerability index in agricultural water system which is projected to be more frequently exposed to drought condition in the future due to climate change. Further research should be extended to the study on the water demand of the crops other than rice and to the projection of the change in ACDS index in the future.

  • PDF

A Plan for Activating Elderly Sports to Promote Health in the COVID-19 Era (코로나19 시대 건강증진을 위한 노인체육 활성화 방안)

  • Cho, Kyoung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
    • /
    • v.14 no.7
    • /
    • pp.141-160
    • /
    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to devise a specific plan for activating sports to promote health in old age against the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. Through literature review, it also analyzed the association between health status and COVID-19 in old age, suggested health promotion policies and projects for elderly people, and presented a plan for activating sport to promote health in old age against COVID-19 era. First, it is necessary to revise the relevant laws, including the Sport Promotion Act and the Elderly Welfare Act, partially or entirely, make developmental and convergent legislations for elderly health and sports, and establish an institutional device as needed. Second, it is necessary to build an integrated digital platform for the elderly and make a supporting system that links facilities, programs, information, and job creation as part of a New Deal program in the field of sports on the basis of the Korean New Deal. Third, it is necessary to train elderly welfare professionals. Efforts should be made to establish more departments related to elderly sports in universities and make it compulsory to place elderly sports instructors at elderly leisure and welfare facilities. Fourth, it is necessary to develop contents related to health in old age. This means performing diverse movements by manipulating them through a virtual reality (VR) simulation. Fifth, it is necessary to make a greater investment in research and development related to elderly sports and relevant fields. This means the need to conduct constant research on healthy and active aging in a systematic and practical way through multidisciplinary cooperation. Sixth, it is necessary to establish and operate an elderly management agency (elderly health agency) under the influence of the Office of the Prime Minister. This means the need to secure independence in implementing the functions related to health promotion in old age and make comprehensive operation, which involves all the issues of health promotion in old age, daily function maintenance and rehabilitation, social adjustment, and long-term care, by establishing an elderly management agency in an effort to give lifelong health management to the elderly and cope with the untact, New Normal age.

Simulation and Feasibility Analysis of Aging Urban Park Refurbishment Project through the Application of Japan's Park-PFI System (일본 공모설치관리제도(Park-PFI)의 적용을 통한 노후 도시공원 정비사업 시뮬레이션 및 타당성 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Gook;Kim, Young-Hyeon;Kim, Min-Seo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.51 no.5
    • /
    • pp.13-29
    • /
    • 2023
  • Urban parks are social infrastructure supporting citizens' health, quality of life, and community formation. As the proportion of urban parks that have been established for more than 20 years is increasing, the need for refurbishment to improve the physical space environment and enhance the functions of aging urban parks is increasing. Since the government's refurbishment of aging urban parks has limitations in securing financial resources and promoting attractiveness, they must be promoted through public-private partnerships. Japan, which suffered from the problem of aging urban parks, has successfully promoted several park refurbishment projects by introducing the Park-PFI through the revision of the 「Urban Park Act」 in 2017. This study examines and analyzes the characteristics of the Japan Park-PFI as an alternative to improving the quality of aging domestic urban park services through public-private partnerships and the validity of the aging urban park refurbishment projects through Park-PFI. The main findings are as follows. First, it is necessary to start discussions on introducing Japan's Park-PFI according to the domestic conditions as a means of public-private partnership to improve the service quality and diversify the functions of aging urban parks. In order to introduce Park-PFI social discussions and follow-up studies on the deterioration of urban parks. Must be conducted. The installation of private capital and profit facilities and improvements of related regulations, such as the 「Parks and Green Spaces Act」 and the 「Public Property Act」, is required. Second, it is judged that the Park-PFI project is a policy alternative that can enhance the benefits to citizens, local governments, and private operators under the premise that the need to refurbish aging urban parks is high and the location is suitable for promoting the project. As a result of a pilot application of the Park-PFI project to Seyeong Park, an aging urban park located in Bupyeong-gu, Incheon, it was analyzed to be profitable in terms of the profitability index (PI), net present value (FNPV), and internal rate of return (FIRR). It is considered possible to participate in the business sector. At the local government level, private capital is used to improve the physical space environment of aging urban parks, as well as the refurbishment of the urban parks by utilizing financial resources generated by returning a portion of the facility usage fees and profits (0.5% of annual sales) of private operators. It was found that management budgets could be secured.