• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.37-46
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• 2012

The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.187-207
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• 2019

In order to develop a high performance ocean model, we used Julia, a Just-In-Time compile language, and to obtain the solution of the momentum equation, we made the code to solve the Poisson equation by the Successive Over-Relaxation method. And then we made two models to test Julia calculation codes. First, a simple channel form is modeled to test constant source/sink conditions. Second, the simplified Yellow Sea was modeled to test tidal forcing, Coriolis forces, and the effect of vertical eddy diffusivity coefficients. The model has been tested with a total of eight cases in the two scenarios. As a result of the test, the depth-averaged current speed of the three cases in Scenario 1 converged perfectly to the theoretical value, and that showed well a vertical flow velocity gradient due to the bottom friction. Also, the result of Scenario 2 represented well the amphidromic points of Yellow Sea and the tidal characteristics of mid-western and southwestern coast of Korea. Therefore, it is considered that the ocean model using Julia language has developed successfully, this suggests that the ocean model has come to the stage of successful transition from a classical compile language to a Just-In-Time compile language.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.38 no.2 s.112
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• pp.225-236
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• 2005

The protection of public health In wastewater reclamation and reuse is one of the most important issues. Monitoring data of Escherichia coli were collected from paddy rice plots in 2003 and 2004 experiments. Five treatments were used and each one was triplicated to evaluate the changes of E. coli: surface water, biofilter effluent (secondary level), UV-disinfected water and pond treatment. Microbial risk was quantified to assess human health risk by exposure to E. coli in paddy rice plots, which were irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. Beta-Poisson model was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogen ingestion that may occur to farmer and neighbor children. Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. In the following analysis, two scenarios were related to the reduction of risk against direct ingestion and exposure times. Scenarios A and B were assumed that the risk was 1,000 and 10,000 times lower than direct ingestion.'Golfers were assumed to be 0.001 L of reclaimed water by contact with balls and their cloths. Opportunity of contact in paddy rice field with pathogens was more frequent than handing golf balls, because of agricultural activity was practiced in ponded water in paddy rice culture. As a result of microbial risk assessment using total data of experimental period, risk value of E. coli in 2003 and 2004 experiment ranged from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ and $10^{-4}$ to $10^{-8}$, respectively. The risk values in biofilter effluent irrigation was the highest, which is $10^{-4}$ in 2003 and $10^{-5}$ in 2004 experiments with scenario A. Ranges of $10^{-6}$ to $10^{-8}$ were considered at reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure and the risk value above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be attributable to the risk of infection. Irrigation with UV-disinfected water in the paddy field during the agricultural Period showed significantly lower microbial risk than others, and their levels of risk value were within the range of actual paddy rice field with surface water.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.131-143
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• 2012

The past researches on roadway segment safety estimation focused on intersections, which are the primary traffic accident regions. The past researches on roadway segments, However, analyzed the effects of certain factors on the traffic accident occurrence rate by organizing the individual geometric structures of the roads, and there is still a dearth of researches on the development of a traffic accident estimation model for rural roadway segments. Therefore, this research focused on rural two-lane and multilane roadway segments and developed traffic accident estimation models through the application of statistical techniques. This is required to explain such high frequency of zero counts in the traffic accident data. In this research, it was found that the Hurdle model is more suitable than the Poisson or negative binomial-regression model for explaining the excess zeros case. In addition, main variables were chosen to estimate their effects on traffic accident occurrence at rural roadway segments, and the safety at such rural roadway segments was estimated. In this research, it was assumed that there are different factors that affect the safety at two-way lane and multilane roadway segments, and a traffic accident estimation model was developed by dividing the two-way lane and multilane roadway segments.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.99-110
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• 2008

It is commonly estimated that there is a much higher potential for accidents at a crossroads than along a single road due to its plethora of conflicting points. According to the 2006 figures by the National Police Agency, the number of traffic accidents at crossroads is greatly increasing compared to that along single roads. Among others, crossroads installed with traffic signals have more varied influential factors for traffic accidents and leave much more room for improvement than ones without traffic signals; thus, it is expected that a noticeable effect could be achieved in safety if proper counter-measures against the hazards at a crossroads were taken together with an estimate of causes for accidents This research managed to develop models for accident forecasts and accident intensity by applying data on accident history and site inspection of crossroads, targeting four selected downtown crossroads installed with traffic signals. The research was done by roughly dividing the process into four stages: first, analyze the accident model examined before; second, select variables affecting traffic accidents; third, develop a model for traffic accident forecasting by using a statistics-based methodology; and fourth, carry out the verification process of the models.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.123-133
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• 2010

The national standards for the installation of pedestrian crosswalks prohibits installation of crosswalks within 200 meters of nearby overpasses, underpasses, or crosswalks. In case the exceptional installation is required, the feasibility study is to be thoroughly conducted by the local police agency. However, it is an undeniable fact that the specific installation standards for optimal types and locations of crosswalks are not yet to be established. This paper examines the development of traffic accident prediction model applicable to different types and locations of bus stops(type A and type B) at mid-block intersections. Furthermore, it develops the poisson regression model which sets the "number of traffic accidents" and "traffic accident severity" as dependent variables, while using "traffic volumes", "pedestrian traffic volumes" and "the distance between crosswalks and bus stops" as independent variables. According to the traffic accident prediction model applicable to the type A bus stop location, the traffic accident severity increases relative to the number of traffic volumes, the number of pedestrian traffic volumes, and the distance between crosswalks and bus stops. In case of the type B bus stop model, the further the bus stop is from crosswalks, the number of traffic accidents decreases while it increases when traffic volumes and pedestrian traffic volumes increase. Therefore, it is reasonable to state that the bus stop design which minimizes the traffic accidents is the type C design, which is the one in combination of type A and type B, and the optimal distance is found to be 65 meters. In case of the type A design and the type B design, the optimal distances are found to be within range 60~70meters.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.100 no.1
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• pp.70-78
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• 2011

In this study, we develop a fire stochastic simulation model by season based on the historical fire data in Korea. The model is utilized to generate sequences of fire events that are consistent with Korean fire history. We employ a three-stage approach. First, a random draw from a Bernoulli distribution is used to determine if any fire occurs for each day of a simulated fire season. Second, if a fire does occur, a random draw from a geometric multiplicity distribution determines their number. Last, ignition times for each fire are randomly drawn from a Poisson distribution. This specific distributional forms are chosen after analysis of Korean historical fire data. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the primary parameters of the stochastic models. Fire sequences generated with the model appear to follow historical patterns with respect to diurnal distribution and total number of fires per year. We expect that the results of this study will assist a fire manager for planning fire suppression policies and suppression resource allocations.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.49 no.5
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• pp.329-341
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• 2016

Objectives: The goal of this study was to investigate the short-term effect of ambient air pollution on emergency department (ED) visits in Seoul for asthma according to patients' prior history of allergic diseases. Methods: Data on ED visits from 2005 to 2009 were obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. To evaluate the risk of ED visits for asthma related to ambient air pollutants (carbon monoxide [CO], nitrogen dioxide [$NO_2$], ozone [$O_3$], sulfur dioxide [$SO_2$], and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <$10{\mu}m$ [$PM_{10}$]), a generalized additive model with a Poisson distribution was used; a single-lag model and a cumulative-effect model (average concentration over the previous 1-7 days) were also explored. The percent increase and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for each interquartile range (IQR) increment in the concentration of each air pollutant. Subgroup analyses were done by age, gender, the presence of allergic disease, and season. Results: A total of 33 751 asthma attack cases were observed during the study period. The strongest association was a 9.6% increase (95% CI, 6.9% to 12.3%) in the risk of ED visits for asthma per IQR increase in $O_3$ concentration. IQR changes in $NO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ concentrations were also significantly associated with ED visits in the cumulative lag 7 model. Among patients with a prior history of allergic rhinitis or atopic dermatitis, the risk of ED visits for asthma per IQR increase in $PM_{10}$ concentration was higher (3.9%; 95% CI, 1.2% to 6.7%) than in patients with no such history. Conclusions: Ambient air pollutants were positively associated with ED visits for asthma, especially among subjects with a prior history of allergic rhinitis or atopic dermatitis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.3 s.81
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• pp.125-136
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• 2005

The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.554-563
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• 2015

This study dealt with developing an accident model for rural signalized intersections with random parameter negative binomial method. The limitation of previous count models(especially, Poisson/Negative Binomial model) is not to explain the integrated variations in terms of time and the distinctive characters a specific point/segment has. This drawback of the traditional count models results in the underestimation of the standard error(t-value inflation) of the derived coefficient and finally affects the low-reliability of the whole model. To solve this problem, this study improves the limitation of traditional count models by suggesting the use of random parameter which takes account of heterogeneity of each point/segment. Through the analyses, it was found that the increase of traffic flow and pedestrian facilities on minor streets had positive effects on the increase of traffic accidents. Left turning lanes and median on major streets reduced the number of accidents. The analysis results show that the random parameter modeling is an effective method for investigating the influence on traffic accident from road geometries. However, this study could not analyze the effects of sequential changes of driving conditions including geometries and safety facilities.