• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.631-638
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• 2013

The probabilistic fatigue life analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. Frequently, the Bayesian approach has been demonstrated as a proper method to show the uncertainty of parameters. In this work, the application of probabilistic fatigue life prediction method for the aircraft structure was studied. This effort was conducted by using the PoF(Probability of Failure) based on Bayesian approach. Furthermore, numerical example was carried out to confirm the validation of the suggested approach. In conclusion, it was shown that the Bayesian approach can calculate the probabilistic fatigue lives and the quantitative value of PoF effectively for the aircraft structural component. Moreover the calculated probabilistic fatigue lives can be utilized to determine the optimized inspection period of aircraft structures.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.8
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• pp.619-624
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• 2013

To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.79-86
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• 2022

Recently, the amount of maintenance is increasing due to the aging of power facilities, but the budget is constrained. Therefore, the importance of asset management that selects replacement priorities based on the failure probability and enhances investment effects is increasing. Because the number of distribution transformers is very large, the proportion of investment cost is very high. Therefore, it is important to select the investment priority by evaluating the reliable remaining life based on the failure probability. This paper evaluates the statistical expected life using the failure data of distribution transformers for the last 11 years and the current operation data. The hazard rate of distribution transformer and MV cable was compared with each other and the adequacy of early failure removal was reviewed and the statistical expected life corresponding to the cumulative failure probability B3% was calculated.