• Title/Summary/Keyword: Pert distribution

Search Result 13, Processing Time 0.018 seconds

IMPROVING THE USABILITY OF STOCHASTIC SIMULATION BASED SCHEDULING SYSTEM

  • Tae-Hyun Bae;Ryul-Hee Kim;Kyu-Yeol Song;Dong-Eun Lee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
    • /
    • 2009.05a
    • /
    • pp.393-399
    • /
    • 2009
  • This paper introduces an automated tool named Advanced Stochastic Schedule Simulation System (AS4). The system automatically integrates CPM schedule data exported from Primavera Project Planner (P3) and historical activity duration data obtained from a project data warehouse, computes the best fit probability distribution functions (PDFs) of historical activity durations, assigns the PDFs identified to respective activities, computes the optimum number of simulation runs, simulates the schedule network for the optimum number of simulation runs, and estimates the best fit PDF of project completion times (PCTs). AS4 improves the reliability of simulation-based scheduling by effectively dealing with the uncertainties of the activities' durations, increases the usability of the schedule data obtained from commercial CPM software, and effectively handles the variability of the PCTs by finding the best fit PDF of PCTs. It is designed as an easy-to-use computer tool programmed in MATLAB. AS4 encourages the use of simulation-based scheduling because it is simple to use, it simplifies the tedious and burdensome process involved in finding the PDFs of the many activities' durations and in assigning the PDFs to the many activities of a new network under modeling, and it does away with the normality assumptions used by most simulation-based scheduling systems in modeling PCTs.

  • PDF

Determination of sample size to serological surveillance plan for pullorum disease and fowl typhoid (추백리-가금티푸스의 혈청학적 모니터링 계획수립을 위한 표본크기)

  • Pak, Son-Il;Park, Choi-Kyu
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
    • /
    • v.48 no.4
    • /
    • pp.457-462
    • /
    • 2008
  • The objective of this study was to determine appropriate sample size that simulated different assumptions for diagnostic test characteristics and true prevalences when designing serological surveillance plan for pullorum disease and fowl typhoid in domestic poultry production. The number of flocks and total number of chickens to be sampled was obtained to provide 95% confidence of detecting at least one infected flock, taking imperfect diagnostic tests into account. Due to lack of reliable data, within infected flock prevalence (WFP) was assumed to follow minimum 1%, most likely 5% and maximum 9% and true flock prevalence of 0.1%, 0.5% and 1% in order. Sensitivity were modeled using the Pert distribution: minimum 75%, most likely 80% and maximum 90% for plate agglutination test and 80%, 85%, and 90% for ELISA test. Similarly, the specificity was modeled 85%, 90%, 95% for plate agglutination test and 90%, 95%, 99% for ELISA test. In accordance with the current regulation, flock-level test characteristics calculated assuming that 30 samples are taken from per flock. The model showed that the current 112,000 annual number of testing plan which is based on random selection of flocks is far beyond the sample size estimated in this study. The sample size was further reduced with increased sensitivity and specificity of the test and decreased WFP. The effect of increasing samples per flock on total sample size to be sampled and optimal combination of sensitivity and specificity of the test for the purpose of the surveillance is discussed regarding cost.

Validity of Nursing Diagnoses Related to Difficulty in Respiratory Function (호흡기능장애와 관련된 간호진단의 타당도 조사)

  • 김조자;이원희;유지수;허혜경;김창희;홍성경
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.569-584
    • /
    • 1993
  • This study was done to verify validity of nursing diagnoses related to difficulty in respiratory function. First, content validity was examined by an expert group considering the etiology and the signs / symptoms of three nursing diagnoses - ineffective airway clearance, ineffective breathing pattern, impaired gas exchange. Second, clinical validity was examined by comparing the frequencies of the etiologies and signs / symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses in clinical case studies with the results of the content validity. This study was a descriptive study. The sample consisted of 23 experts (professors, head nurses and clinical instructors) who had had a variety of experiences using nursing diagnoses in clinical practice, and 102 case reports done by senior student nurses of the college of nursing of Y-university. These reports were part of their clinical practice in the ICU. The instrument used for this study was a checklist for etiologies and signs and symptoms based on the literature, Doenges and Moorhouse (1988), Kim, McFarland, McLane (1991), Lee Won Hee et al. (1987), Kim Cho Ja et at. (1988). The data was collected over four month period from May 1992 to Aug. 1992. Data were analyzed using frequencies done with the SPSS / PC+ package. The results of this study are summarized as follows : 1. General Characteristics of the Expert Group A bachelor degree was held by 43.5% and a master or doctoral degree by 56.5% of the expert group. The average age of the expert group was 35.3 years. Their average clinical experience was 9.3 years and their average experience in clinical practice was 5.9 years. The general characteristics of the patients showed that there were more women than men, that the age range was from 1 to over 80. Most of their medical diagnoses were diagnoses related to the respiratory. system, circulation or neurologic system, and 50% or more of them had a ventilator with intubation or a tracheostomy. The number of cases for each nursing diagnoses was : · Ineffective airway clearance, 92 cases. · Ineffective breathing pattern, 18 cases. · Impaired gas exchange, 22 cases. 2. The opinion of the expert group as to the classification of the etiology, and signs and symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses was as follows : · In 31.8% of the cases the classification of etiology was clear. · In 22.7%, the classification of signs and symptoms was clear. · In 17.4%, the classification of nursing interventions was clear. 3. In the expert group 80% or mere agreed to ‘dysp-nea’as a common sign and symptom of the three nursing diagnoses. The distinguishing signs and symptoms of (Ineffective airway clearance) were ‘sputum’, ‘cough’, ‘abnormal respiratory sounds : rales’. The distinguishing sings and symptoms of (Ineffective breathing pattern) were ‘tachypnea’, ‘use of accessory muscle of respiration’, ‘orthopnea’ and for (Impaired gas exchange) it was ‘abnormal arterial blood gas’, 4. The distribution of etiology, and signs and symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses was as follows : · There was a high frequency of ‘increased secretion from the bronchus and trachea’ in both the expert group and the case reports as the etiology of ineffective airway clearance. · For the etiologies for ineffective breathing pat-tern, ‘rain’, ‘anxiety’, ‘fear’, ‘obstructions of the tract, ca and bronchus’ had a high ratio in the ex-pert group and ‘decreased expansion of lung’ in the case reports. · For the etiologies for impaired gas exchanges, ‘altered oxygen -carrying capacity of the blood’ and ‘excess accumulation of interstitial fluid in lung’ had a high ratio in the expert group and ‘altered oxygen supply’ in the case reports. · For signs and symptoms for ineffective airway clearance, ‘dyspnea’, ‘altered amount and character of sputum’ were included by 100% of the expert group. ‘Abnormal respiratory. sound(rate, rhonchi)’ were included by a high ratio of the expert group. · For the signs and symptoms for ineffective breathing pattern. ‘dyspnea’, ‘shortness of breath’ were included by 100% of the expert group. In the case reports, ‘dyspnea’ and ‘tachypnea’ were reported as signs and symptoms. · For the sign and symptoms for impaired gas exchange, ‘hypoxia’ and ‘cyanosis’ had a high ratio in the expert group. In the case report, ‘hypercapnia’, ‘hypoxia’ and ‘inability to remove secretions’ were reported as signs and symptoms. In summary, the similarity of the etiologies and signs and symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses related to difficulty in respiratory function makes it difficult to distinguish among them But the clinical validity of three nursing diagnoses was established through this study, and at last one sign and symp-tom was defined for each diagnosis.

  • PDF