• Title/Summary/Keyword: Performance Predictor

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Development of algorithm for work intensity evaluation using excess overwork index of construction workers with real-time heart rate measurement device

  • Jae-young Park;Jung Hwan Lee;Mo-Yeol Kang;Tae-Won Jang;Hyoung-Ryoul Kim;Se-Yeong Kim;Jongin Lee
    • Annals of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
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    • v.35
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    • pp.24.1-24.15
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    • 2023
  • Background: The construction workers are vulnerable to fatigue due to high physical workload. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between overwork and heart rate in construction workers and propose a scheme to prevent overwork in advance. Methods: We measured the heart rates of construction workers at a construction site of a residential and commercial complex in Seoul from August to October 2021 and develop an index that monitors overwork in real-time. A total of 66 Korean workers participated in the study, wearing real-time heart rate monitoring equipment. The relative heart rate (RHR) was calculated using the minimum and maximum heart rates, and the maximum acceptable working time (MAWT) was estimated using RHR to calculate the workload. The overwork index (OI) was defined as the cumulative workload evaluated with the MAWT. An appropriate scenario line (PSL) was set as an index that can be compared to the OI to evaluate the degree of overwork in real-time. The excess overwork index (EOI) was evaluated in real-time during work performance using the difference between the OI and the PSL. The EOI value was used to perform receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to find the optimal cut-off value for classification of overwork state. Results: Of the 60 participants analyzed, 28 (46.7%) were classified as the overwork group based on their RHR. ROC curve analysis showed that the EOI was a good predictor of overwork, with an area under the curve of 0.824. The optimal cut-off values ranged from 21.8% to 24.0% depending on the method used to determine the cut-off point. Conclusion: The EOI showed promising results as a predictive tool to assess overwork in real-time using heart rate monitoring and calculation through MAWT. Further research is needed to assess physical workload accurately and determine cut-off values across industries.

Product Community Analysis Using Opinion Mining and Network Analysis: Movie Performance Prediction Case (오피니언 마이닝과 네트워크 분석을 활용한 상품 커뮤니티 분석: 영화 흥행성과 예측 사례)

  • Jin, Yu;Kim, Jungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 2014
  • Word of Mouth (WOM) is a behavior used by consumers to transfer or communicate their product or service experience to other consumers. Due to the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Twitter, blogs, and online communities, electronic WOM (e-WOM) has become important to the success of products or services. As a result, most enterprises pay close attention to e-WOM for their products or services. This is especially important for movies, as these are experiential products. This paper aims to identify the network factors of an online movie community that impact box office revenue using social network analysis. In addition to traditional WOM factors (volume and valence of WOM), network centrality measures of the online community are included as influential factors in box office revenue. Based on previous research results, we develop five hypotheses on the relationships between potential influential factors (WOM volume, WOM valence, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and box office revenue. The first hypothesis is that the accumulated volume of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The second hypothesis is that the accumulated valence of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The third hypothesis is that the average of degree centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fourth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fifth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. To verify our research model, we collect movie review data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), which is a representative online movie community, and movie revenue data from the Box-Office-Mojo website. The movies in this analysis include weekly top-10 movies from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2013, with in total. We collect movie metadata such as screening periods and user ratings; and community data in IMDb including reviewer identification, review content, review times, responder identification, reply content, reply times, and reply relationships. For the same period, the revenue data from Box-Office-Mojo is collected on a weekly basis. Movie community networks are constructed based on reply relationships between reviewers. Using a social network analysis tool, NodeXL, we calculate the averages of three centralities including degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality for each movie. Correlation analysis of focal variables and the dependent variable (final revenue) shows that three centrality measures are highly correlated, prompting us to perform multiple regressions separately with each centrality measure. Consistent with previous research results, our regression analysis results show that the volume and valence of WOM are positively related to the final box office revenue of movies. Moreover, the averages of betweenness centralities from initial community networks impact the final movie revenues. However, both of the averages of degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence final movie performance. Based on the regression results, three hypotheses, 1, 2, and 4, are accepted, and two hypotheses, 3 and 5, are rejected. This study tries to link the network structure of e-WOM on online product communities with the product's performance. Based on the analysis of a real online movie community, the results show that online community network structures can work as a predictor of movie performance. The results show that the betweenness centralities of the reviewer community are critical for the prediction of movie performance. However, degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence movie performance. As future research topics, similar analyses are required for other product categories such as electronic goods and online content to generalize the study results.

Prediction Model of Exercise Behaviors in Patients with Arthritis (by Pender's revised Health Promotion Model) (관절염 환자의 운동행위 예측모형 (Pender의 재개정된 건강증진 모형에 의한))

  • Lim, Nan-Young;Suh, Gil-Hee
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.122-140
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    • 2001
  • The aims of this study were to understand and to predict the determinent factors affecting the exercise behaviors and physical fitness by testing the Pender's revised health promotion model, and to help the patients with rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis perform the continous exercise program, and to help them maximize the physical effect such as muscle strength, endurance, and functional status and mental effects including self efficacy and quality of life, and improve the physical and mental well being, and to provide a basis for the nursing intervention strategies. Of the selected variables in this study, the endogenous variables included the physical fitness, exercise score, exercise participation, perceived benefits of action, perceived barriers of action to exercise, activity-related affect(depression) and perceived self-efficacy, interpersonal influences(family support), situational factors(duration of arthritis, fatigue) and the exogenous variables included personal sociocultural factor(education level), personal biologic factor(body mass index), personal psychologic factor(perceived health status) and prior related behavior factors(previous participation in exercise, life-style). We analyzed the clinical records of 208 patients with rheumatoid arthritis and degenerative arthritis who visited the outpatient clinics at H university hospital in Seoul. Data were composed of self reported qustionnaire and good of fitness score which were obtained by padalling the ergometer of bicycle for 9 minutes. SPSS Win 8.0 and Window LISREL 8.12a were used for statistical analysis. Of 75 hypothetical paths that influence on physical fitness, exercise participation, exercise score, perceived benefits of action, perceived barriers of action to exercise, activity-related affect(depression) and perceived self-efficacy, interpersonal influences(family support), situational factors(duration of arthritis, fatigue), 40 were supported. The physical fitness was directly influenced by life-style, perceived health status, education level, family support, fatigue, which explained 12% of physical fitness. The exercise participation were directly influenced by life-style, education level, past exercise behavior, perceived benefits of action, perceived barriers of action, depression and duration of arthritis, which explained 47% of exercise participation. Exercise score were directly affected by perceived self efficacy. BMI, life-style, past exercise behavior, perceived benefits of action, family support, perceived health status. perceived barriers of action, and fatigue, which explained 70%. Perceived benefits of action was directly influenced by BMI, life-style, which explained 39%. Perceived barriers of action were directly influeced by past exercise behavior, perceived health status, which explained 7%. Perceived self efficacy were directly influeced by level of education, perceived health status, life-style, which explained 57%. Depression were directly influeced by past exercise behavior, BMI, life-style, which explained 27%. Family support were directly influeced by life-style, perceived health status, which explained 29%. Fatigue were directly influeced by BMI, life-style, perceived health status. which explained 41%. Duration of arthritis were directly influeced by life-style, past exercise behavior, BMI, which explained 6%. In conclusion, important variables for physical fitness were life-style, and variable affecting exercise participation were life-style. Perceived self-efficacy of exercise was a significant predictor of exercise score. BMI, Life-style, perceived benefits of action, family support, past exercise behavior showed direct effects on perceived self-efficacy. Therefore, disease related factor should be minimized for physical performance and well being in nursing intervention for patients with rheumatoid arthritis, and plans to promote and continue exercise should be seeked to reduce disability. In addition, Exercise program should be planned and performed by the exact evaluation of exercise according to the ability of the patients and the contents to improve the importance of exercise and self efficacy in self control program, dedicated educational program should be involved. This study suggest that the methods to reduce the disease related factors, the importance of daily life-style, recognition of benefit of exercise, and educational program to promote self efficacy should be considered in the exercise behavior promotion and nursing intervention for continous performance. The significance of this study is also thought to provide patients with chronic arthritis the specific data for maximal physical and mental well being through exercise, chronic therapeutic procedure, daily adaptation and confrontation in nursing intervention.

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Early Identification of Gifted Young Children and Dynamic assessment (유아 영재의 판별과 역동적 평가)

  • 장영숙
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.131-153
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    • 2001
  • The importance of identifying gifted children during early childhood is becoming recognized. Nonetheless, most researchers preferred to study the primary and secondary levels where children are already and more clearly demonstrating what talents they have, and where more reliable predictions of gifted may be made. Comparatively lisle work has been done in this area. When we identify giftedness during early childhood, we have to consider the potential of the young children rather than on actual achievement. Giftedness during early childhood is still developing and less stable than that of older children and this prevents us from making firm and accurate predictions based on children's actual achievement. Dynamic assessment, based on Vygotsky's concept of the zone of proximal development(ZPD), suggests a new idea in the way the gifted young children are identified. In light of dynamic assessment, for identifying the potential giftedness of young children. we need to involve measuring both unassisted and assisted performance. Dynamic assessment usually consists of a test-intervene-retest format that focuses attention on the improvement in child performance when an adult provides mediated assistance on how to master the testing task. The advantages of the dynamic assessment are as follows: First, the dynamic assessment approach can provide a useful means for assessing young gifted child who have not demonstrated high ability on traditional identification method. Second, the dynamic assessment approach can assess the learning process of young children. Third, the dynamic assessment can lead an individualized education by the early identification of young gifted children. Fourth, the dynamic assessment can be a more accurate predictor of potential by linking diagnosis and instruction. Thus, it can make us provide an educational treatment effectively for young gifted children.

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Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques (다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템)

  • Lee, Yeonjeong;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2013
  • Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

Classification Algorithm-based Prediction Performance of Order Imbalance Information on Short-Term Stock Price (분류 알고리즘 기반 주문 불균형 정보의 단기 주가 예측 성과)

  • Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.157-177
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    • 2022
  • Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

Tokamak plasma disruption precursor onset time study based on semi-supervised anomaly detection

  • X.K. Ai;W. Zheng;M. Zhang;D.L. Chen;C.S. Shen;B.H. Guo;B.J. Xiao;Y. Zhong;N.C. Wang;Z.J. Yang;Z.P. Chen;Z.Y. Chen;Y.H. Ding;Y. Pan
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.1501-1512
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    • 2024
  • Plasma disruption in tokamak experiments is a challenging issue that causes damage to the device. Reliable prediction methods are needed, but the lack of full understanding of plasma disruption limits the effectiveness of physics-driven methods. Data-driven methods based on supervised learning are commonly used, and they rely on labelled training data. However, manual labelling of disruption precursors is a time-consuming and challenging task, as some precursors are difficult to accurately identify. The mainstream labelling methods assume that the precursor onset occurs at a fixed time before disruption, which leads to mislabeled samples and suboptimal prediction performance. In this paper, we present disruption prediction methods based on anomaly detection to address these issues, demonstrating good prediction performance on J-TEXT and EAST. By evaluating precursor onset times using different anomaly detection algorithms, it is found that labelling methods can be improved since the onset times of different shots are not necessarily the same. The study optimizes precursor labelling using the onset times inferred by the anomaly detection predictor and test the optimized labels on supervised learning disruption predictors. The results on J-TEXT and EAST show that the models trained on the optimized labels outperform those trained on fixed onset time labels.

The Radiation Therapy for Spinal Cord Compression in Hematologic Malignancy (혈암에서 발생한 척추압박증상의 방사선 치료)

  • Kim In Ah;Choi Ihl Bohng;Chung Su Mi;Kang Ki Mun;Kay Chul Seong;Choi Byung Ok;Jang Ji Young;Shinn Kyung Sub;Kim Chun Choo
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.393-399
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    • 1994
  • Spinal cord compression, an oncologic emergency, is a rare complication of hematologic malignancy Our experience was obtained with a series 32 Patients following retrospective analysis for assessing the role of radiation therapy and identifying the prognostic factors affecting on treatment outcome. Diagnosis was usually made by means of radiologic study such as myelography or computerized tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neurologic examination. Five cases were diagnosed by subjective symptom only with high index of suspicion. In 31 cases, the treatment consisted in radiation therapy alone and the remained one patient had laminectomy before radiation therapy because of diagnostic doubts. Total treatment doses ranged from 800 cGy to 4000 cGy with median of 2000 cGy. Initially large fraction size more than 250 cGy were used in 13 patients with rapidly progressed neurologic deficit. The clinical parameters considered in evaluating the response to treatment were backache, motor-sensory performance and sphincter function. Half of all patients showed good response. Partial response and no response were noted in $37.5\%$ and $12.5\%$, respectively. Our results showed higher response rate than those of other solid tumor series. The degree of neurologic deficit at that time of diagnosis was the most important predictor of treatment outcome. The elapsed time from development of symptoms to start of treatment was significantly affected on the outcome. But histology of primary tumor total dose and use of initial large fraction size were not significantly affect on the outcome. These results confirmed the value of early diagnosis and treatment especially in radiosensitive hematologic malignancy.

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The Usefulness of Dyspnea Rating in Evaluation for Pulmonary Impairment/Disability in Patients with Chronic Pulmonary Disease (만성폐질환자의 폐기능손상 및 장애 평가에 있어서 호흡곤란정도의 유용성)

  • Park, Jae-Min;Lee, Jun-Gu;Kim, Young-Sam;Chang, Yoon-Soo;Ahn, Kang-Hyun;Cho, Hyun-Myung;Kim, Se-Kyu;Chang, Joon;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Lee, Won-Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.204-214
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    • 1999
  • Background: Resting pulmonary function tests(PFTs) are routinely used in the evaluation of pulmonary impairment/disability. But the significance of the cardiopulmonary exercise test(CPX) in the evaluation of pulmonary impairment is controvertible. Many experts believe that dyspnea, though a necessary part of the assessment, is not a reliable predictor of impairment. Nevertheless, oxygen requirements of an organism at rest are different from at activity or exercising, and a clear relationship between resting PFTs and exercise tolerance has not been established in patients with chronic pulmonary disease. As well, the relationship between resting PFTs and dyspnea is complex. To investigate the relationship of dyspnea, resting PFTs, and CPX, we evaluated the patients of stabilized chronic pulmonary disease with clinical dyspnea rating(baseline dyspnea index, BDI), resting PFTs, and CPX. Method: The 50 patients were divided into two groups: non-severe and severe group on basis of results of resting PFTs(by criteria of ATS), CPX(by criteria of ATS or Ortega), and dyspnea rating(by focal score of BDI). Groups were compared with respect to pulmonary function, indices of CPX, and dyspnea rating. Results: 1. According to the criteria of pulmonary impairment with resting PFTs, $VO_2$max, and focal score of BDI were significantly low in the severe group(p<0.01). According to the criteria of $VO_2$max(ml/kg/min) and $VO_2$max(%), the parameters of resting PFTs, except $FEV_1$ were not significantly different between non-severe and severe(p>0.05). According to focal score($FEV_1$(%), FVC(%), MW(%), $FEV_1/FVC$, and $VO_2$max were significantly lower in the severe group(p<0.01). However, in the more severe dyspneic group(focal score<5), only $VO_2$max(ml/kg/min) and $VO_2$max(%) were low(p<0.01). $FEV_1$(%) was correlated with $VO_2$max(%)(r=0.52;p<0.01), but not predictive of exercise performance. The focal score had the correlation with max WR(%) (r=0.55;p<0.01). Sensitivity and specificity analysis were utilized to compare the different criteria used to evaluate the severity of pulmonary impairment, revealed that the classification would be different according to the criteria used. And focal score for dyspnea showed similar sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion : According to these result, resting PFTs were not superior to rating of dyspnea in prediction of exercise performance in patients with chronic pulmonary diseases and less correlative with focal score for dyspnea than $VO_2$max and max WR. Therefore, if not contraindicated, CPX would be considered to evaluate the severity of pulmonary impairment in patients with chronic pulmonary diseases, including with severe resting PFTs. Current criteria used to evaluate the severity of impairment were insufficient in considering the degree of dyspnea, so new criteria, including the severity of dyspnea, may be necessary.

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