• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.163-170
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• 2014

This study calculates the employee receives severance pay scale are paid from the company in the DC system. In addition, by utilizing the reserve growth model were studied in accordance with shortfall risk levels generated by stochastic asset allocation. For the analysis, from 2004 to 2013 using the KOSPI returns and total bond yields were simulated. Scenario 1 is when compared to the severance reserve is insufficient. Scenario 2 is the same as if toy reserve this severance pay. During one period, depending on the asset allocation of stocks and bonds was confirmed that the probability pension risk does not occur. And we suggest that members of DC pension risk endeavor with the government and companies to avoid.

• IE interfaces
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.24-39
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• 2011

In this paper, we study the methodology for the measurement and integration of market risk and credit risk using Copula. We apply the methodology of Rosenberg, and Schuermann(2006) to the assets of pension system. Firstly we estimate dynamics of risk factors and their effects on investment returns, then use the estimated result to simulate future movement of risk factors and distribution of investment returns. Finally we measure integrated risk using integrated return distribution by Copula and simulated future investment return distributions. We found the integrated risk changing with the correlation of risks and investment weights of risks and confirmed the diversification effect of risks. This result is consistent when we use normal Copula and normal marginals, t-Copula and t(3) marginals, and normal Copula and non-parametric marginals. And in the case of non-parametric maginals, larger integrated risk is calculated. It means that use of non-parametric marginals is more conservative.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.611-626
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• 2021

Marital status has been identified as an important risk factor affecting adult mortality. Many studies have found that marriage has positive effects on mortality and increases life expectancy. Since most pension contracts providing retirement income are provided to married couples, mortality assumption for actuarial valuation based on the entire population is likely to overestimate the actual mortality of the group of beneficiaries specified in the contracts. This study considered the differences in mortality according to marital status to analyze the length and value of the payments of a typical pension contract for a married couple. The study quantified the effect on actuarial measurements of considering marital status in mortality assumptions with a multi-state model framework using Korean experience mortality data organized by marital status. The results of analysis indicate that considering marital status in mortality assumptions improves mortality risk management.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.557-573
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• 2019

Mortality study is an essential component of actuarial risk management for life insurance policies, annuities, and pension plans. Life expectancy has drastically increased over the last several decades; consequently, longevity risk associated with annuity products and pension systems has emerged as a crucial issue. Among the various aspects of mortality study, a consideration of the cause-of-death mortality can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the nature of mortality/longevity risk. In this case study, the cause-of-mortality data in Korea and the US were analyzed along with a multinomial logistic regression model that was constructed to quantify the impact of mortality reduction in a specific cause on actuarial values. The results of analyses imply that mortality improvement due to a specific cause should be carefully monitored and reflected in mortality/longevity risk management. It was also confirmed that multinomial logistic regression model is a useful tool for analyzing cause-of-death mortality for actuarial applications.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.643-661
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• 2015

Korea Teachers Pension (private school pension) is a mandatory pension and a social security system for private school teachers to ensure the stability of subscribers by a supplying pension when they (and their dependents) face future economic risk due to retirement or death. Therefore, the Teachers Pension must provide stability and sustainability in regards to adequacy of income and to function as a pension. However, the Government Employees Pension System (GEPS) of Korea (the most representative special occupation pension) recorded a fiscal deficit in 2001 and with an accumulated deficit that is expected to grow; subsequently, various plans for the reform of GEPS have been actively discussed. The Korea Teachers Pension system is based on the GEPS scheme and is not free from the GEPS discussions on reforms of national pension. The current system for the Teachers Pension needs to be improved because it is expected to be depleted within the next 30 years due to low fertility and an aging population in Korea. This study discusses existing Teachers Pension schemes problems and suggests a projection method and revised plans to improve it. We use long-term financial projections of the Teachers Pension to estimate the fund exhaustion point and the minus balance of the financial scale as well as analyze the supply-demand burden structure that reflects the future population structure to propose Teachers Pension reforms that will improve stability and adequacy.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.291-300
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• 2020

Background: The study aimed to determine the association of individual cognitive ability in late midlife with labor market participation among older workers. Methods: This prospective cohort study estimates the risk of long-term sickness absence, disability pension, early retirement, and unemployment from scores on the Intelligenz-Struktur-Test 2000R by combining data from 5076 workers from the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank with a register on social transfer payments. Analyses were stepwise adjusted for age, gender, physical and psychosocial work environment, health behaviors, occupational social class, education, and chronic diseases. Results: In the fully adjusted model, low cognitive ability (≥1 standard deviation below the mean for each gender) and high cognitive ability (≥1 standard deviation above the mean for each gender) were not associated with risk of any of the four labor market outcomes. Conclusion: Individual cognitive ability in late midlife was not associated with risk of long-term sickness absence, disability pension, early retirement, and unemployment in the fully adjusted model. Thus, no direct effect of individual cognitive ability in late midlife was observed on the risk of permanently or temporarily leaving the labor market.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.163-175
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• 2022

Purpose - This study introduces a methodology for finding the optimal tracking error of active stock funds. Tracking error is commonly used in risk budgeting techniques as a concept of cost for alpha creation. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses a post-optimal smart beta portfolio that maximizes alpha under the given tracking error constraint. Findings - As a result of the analysis, the smart beta strategy that maximized alpha under the constraint of 0.15% daily tracking error shows the highest IR. This means the maximum theoretically achievable efficiency. In this regard, a fixed-effect panel regression analysis is conducted to evaluate the active efficiency of domestic stock funds. In addition to control variables based on previous studies, the effect of tracking error on alpha is analyzed. The alpha used in this model is calculated using the smart beta portfolio according to the size of the constraint of the tracking error as a benchmark. Contrary to theoretical estimates, in Korea, the alpha performance is maximized under a daily tracking error of 0.1%. This indicates that the active efficiency of domestic equity funds is lower than the theoretical maximum. Research implications or Originality - Based on this study, it is expected that it can be used for active risk management of pension funds and performance evaluation of active strategies.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.57-63
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• 2019

This study suggests the level of guaranteed reserves that should be accumulated in order to provide guaranteed interest contracts to pension members. To calculate the guaranteed reserve, this study employs the method using variable insurance contracts with guaranteed interest options. The average return of three major pensions (national pension, private teacher's pension, civil servants pension) funds, from 2010 to 2018, is set as the target rate of return and then we establish 0%, 1.0%, 1.5% and 2.0% each as our minimum guaranteed returns for their respective guaranteed reserves. Our results firstly show that gaps between each guaranteed reserves are increasing as times goes on. Second, the probability of shortfall reserve is on the decrease as the pension fund is mature. Conclusively, a long-term conservative balance between risk and return is one of the best investing strategies in pension funds providing the guaranteed interest.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.63 no.1
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• pp.343-368
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• 2011

This Study aims to criticize national pension fund governance reform plan of Korea government and to search for an alternative direction of the reform. Firstly, I examine the theoretical basis of the Korean government reform plan by clarifying limits of application of agency theory to the public pension fund governance. Secondly, I try to reconstruct principles of the public pension fund governance with an alternative theoretical view emphasizing democracy principle. Thirdly, I evaluate the government reform plan with the basis of reconstructed pension fund governance principles. The government reform plan is expected to cause retrenchment of democracy and even political autonomy. It also would make worse the problem of pension fund autonomy from the financial market and the risk of the pension fund caused by market turbulence. Finally I suggest alternative direction of the pension fund governance reform emphasizing the democracy principle. This direction contains constructing co-determination structure of the state and the civil society, escalating controling power of the governing body to the administration body, setting the limits of the roles of the state, attaining of the autonomy from the financial market, strengthening organizational and social accountability.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.77-105
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• 2004

Given the limitations of UI benefit and self-insurance through precautionary savings, this paper suggests a new scheme of income support for the unemployed, which offers unemployed workers not only UI benefit but also borrowings from their future pension incomes. Allowing individuals to have effective self-insurance through pension- borrowing, this scheme provides them with consumption-smoothing and reduction in risk burden while maintaining search incentives of the unemployed. Simulation study based upon household panel data in Korea suggests that a heavy reliance should be set upon self-insurance through pension-borrowings rather than upon UI benefit, even for the low-income individuals who are subsidized under UI system. This result provides us with insightful implications for a social safety net in (fast-growing) developing countries, where people cannot afford a good amount of UI benefit or of precautionary savings against unemployment although they expect their incomes to be much higher in the future. Indeed, it is consumption-smoothing effect of self-insurance through pension- borrowings, as well as its incentive-maintaining effect, that makes it a promising alternative of social safety net in developing countries.