• 제목/요약/키워드: Particular Risk Analysis

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Methodologic Issues in Using Epidemiologic Studies for Quantitative Risk Assessment

  • Stayner Leslie
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한예방의학회 1994년도 교수 연수회(환경)
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    • pp.417-425
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    • 1994
  • Although animal studies have been used most often for quantitative risk assessment, it is generally recognized that well-conducted epidemiologic studies would provide the best basis for estimating human risk. However, there are several features related to the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies that frequently limit their usefulness for quantitating risks. The lack of accurate information on exposure in epidemiologic studies is perhaps the most frequently cited limitation of these studies for risk assessment. However. other features of epidemiologic study design, such as statistical power, length of follow-up, confounding, and effect modification, may also limit the inferences that can be drawn from these studies. Furthermore, even when the aforementioned limitations are overcome, substantial uncertainty exists concerning the choice of an appropriate statistical (or biologic) model for extrapolation beyond the range of exposures observed in a particular study. This paper focuses on presenting a review and discussion of the methodologic issues involved in using epidemiologic studies for risk assessment. This review concentrates on the use of retrospective, cohort, mortality studies of occupational groups for assessing cancer risk because this is the most common application of epidemiologic data for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Epidemiologic data should not be viewed as a panacea for the problems inherent in using animal bioassay data for QRA. Rather, information that can be derived from epidemiologic and toxicologic studies complement one another, and both data sources need to be used to provide the best characterization of human risk.

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Operative Risk Factors in Gastric Cancer Surgery for Elderly Patients

  • Seo, Su-Han;Hur, Hoon;An, Chang-Wook;Yi, Xian;Kim, June-Young;Han, Sang-Uk;Cho, Yong-Kwan
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.116-121
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Gastric cancer surgery is a common operation in East Asia, such as Korea and Japan, and there has been a significant increase in the need for this procedure due to the aging population. As a result, surgery for the treatment of gastric cancer for elderly patients is expected to increase. This study examined the effect of old age on gastric cancer surgery, and analyzed the operative risk factors for elderly patients. Materials and Methods: From November 2008 to August 2010, 590 patients, who underwent a curative resection for gastric cancers, were enrolled. Patients who underwent palliative or emergency surgery were excluded. A retrospective analysis of the correlation between surgical outcomes and age was performed. The elderly were defined as patients who were over the age of 65 years. Results: The mean age of all patients was 58.3 years, and complications occurred in 87 cases (14.7%). The most common complication was wound infection and severe complications requiring surgical, endoscopic, or radiologic intervention developed in 52 cases (8.8%). The rate of complications increased with increasing age of the patients. Univariate analysis revealed age, comorbidity, extent of resection, operation time, and combined resection to be associated with surgical complications. In particular, age over 75 years old, operation time, and comorbidity were predictive factors in multivariate analysis. In the elderly, only comorbidity was associated with surgical complications Conclusions: The patients' age is the most important factor for predicting surgical complications. Surgeons should pay an attention to the performance of gastric cancer surgery on elderly patients. In particular, it must be performed carefully for elderly patients with a comorbidity.

Di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate의 발암위해성평가 - MOE(Margin of Exposure) 방법론의 활용 - (A Cancer Risk Assessment of Di (2- ethylhexyl ) -phthalate - Application of MOE (Margin of Exposure) Approach)

  • 최시내;이효민;윤은경;서경원;김효정;박종세
    • Toxicological Research
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2002
  • The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) characterized the cancer hazard of di(2-ethylhexyl)-phthalate (DEHP) as a B2 group (probable human carcinogen) and proposed "Guide-lines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment". This guidelines proposed alternative methods for analyzing carcinogen dose-response data and for extrapolating the effects of observed at high dose to predict that might occur at lower doses relevant to human exposure. This proposed guidelines state that "If in a particular case, the evidence indicated a threshold, as in the case of carcinogenicity being secondary to another toxicity that has a threshold, the margin of exposure analysis for toxicity is the same as is done for a non-cancer endpoint". DEHP is excellent candidate for reconideration under the new guidelines for carcinogen risk assessment (John Doull et al., 1998). This study is conducted about risk assessment for infant exposure on DEHP in powdered milk wing methodology in EPA's new guideline on carcinogenic risk assessment. Estimated cancer risk of DEHP in powdered milk and cow milk is 2.83$\times$$10^5$ (using cancer potency: 1.4$\times$$10^2$/ (mg/kg/day)) as mean and MOE is 12075 (using selected NOEL 20 mg/kg/day) as mean. mg/kg/day) as mean.

건설공사의 리스크인자 분석 및 경감에 관한 연구 (Analysis and Reduction for Risk factors of Construction Projects)

  • 정병화;정영식
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제2권4호
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2001
  • 최근 국내 건설업계는 건설경기 침체, 해외건설 수주부진, 치 열한 경쟁 등 어려운 상황에 직면한 실정인데 이에 본 연구에서는 효과적인 리스크관리 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 효과적인 리스크관리와 성공적인 사업관리를 수행하기 위하여 국내 상위 건설회사를 모집단으로 한 설문조사를 실시하여 건설관리에 의한 리스크인자와 리스크관리에 의한 리스크인자를 검정하여 리스크인자를 분석하고 미리 예측하여 원인을 분석하여 대응$\cdot$제어하면 리스크인자를 경감하게 되어 공사비, 공기, 품질을 향상시켜 양질의 건설공사를 수행 할 수 있게 하는 방안을 제시하는데 그 목적이 있다.

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The Effect of Lending Structure Concentration on Credit Risk: The Evidence of Vietnamese Commercial Banks

  • LE, Thi Thu Diem;DIEP, Thanh Tung
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권7호
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 2020
  • This paper examines whether lending structure can lower credit risk by employing econometric techniques of panel data for the Vietnamese banking system at the bank level used by economic sectors from 2011 to 2016. New light is being shed on assessing the impact of each industry's debt outstanding on credit risk. Adopting findings from previous studies, we assess credit risk from two different sources, including loan loss provision and non-performing loan. Moreover, we also focus on observing lending structure in many different aspects, from concentrative levels to the short-term and long-term stability levels of lending structure. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was applied to analyze the relationship between concentration and banking risks. In general, the results show that lending concentration may decrease credit risk. It is interesting to observe that the Vietnamese commercial bank lending portfolios have, on average, higher levels of diversity across different sectors. In particular, the increase in hotel and restaurant lending contributes to decrease credit risk while the lending portfolios of banks in agriculture, electricity, gas and water increase credit risk. This study suggests the need for further analysis and research about portfolio risks in lending activities for maintaining efficiency and stability in the commercial banking system.

무장분리 안전성을 위한 전산해석 (CFD ANALYSIS ON AIRCRAFT STORE SEPARATION VALIDATION)

  • 정형석;윤용현;이상현
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산유체공학회 2007년도 춘계 학술대회논문집
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    • pp.14-16
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    • 2007
  • A critical problem in the integration of stores into new and existing aircraft is the safe separation of the stores from the aircraft at a variety of flight conditions representative of the aircraft flight regime. Typically, the certification of a particular store/aircraft/flight condition combination is accomplished by a flight test. Flight tests are very expensive and do expose the pilot and aircraft to a certain amount of risk. Wind tunnel testing, although less expensive than flight testing, is still expensive. Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) has held out the promise of alleviating expensive and risk by simulating weapons separation computationally. The forces and moments on a store at carriage and at various points in the flow field of te aircraft can be computed using CFD applied to the full aircraft and store geometry. This study needs full dynamic characteristics study and flow analysis for securing store separation safety. Present study performs dynamic simulation of store separation with flow analysis using Chimera grid scheme which is usually used for moving simulations.

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Behavioral Analysis Zero-Trust Architecture Relying on Adaptive Multifactor and Threat Determination

  • Chit-Jie Chew;Po-Yao Wang;Jung-San Lee
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제17권9호
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    • pp.2529-2549
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    • 2023
  • For effectively lowering down the risk of cyber threating, the zero-trust architecture (ZTA) has been gradually deployed to the fields of smart city, Internet of Things, and cloud computing. The main concept of ZTA is to maintain a distrustful attitude towards all devices, identities, and communication requests, which only offering the minimum access and validity. Unfortunately, adopting the most secure and complex multifactor authentication has brought enterprise and employee a troublesome and unfriendly burden. Thus, authors aim to incorporate machine learning technology to build an employee behavior analysis ZTA. The new framework is characterized by the ability of adjusting the difficulty of identity verification through the user behavioral patterns and the risk degree of the resource. In particular, three key factors, including one-time password, face feature, and authorization code, have been applied to design the adaptive multifactor continuous authentication system. Simulations have demonstrated that the new work can eliminate the necessity of maintaining a heavy authentication and ensure an employee-friendly experience.

Safety Knowledge and Changing Behavior in Agricultural Workers: an Assessment Model Applied in Central Italy

  • Cecchini, Massimo;Bedini, Roberto;Mosetti, Davide;Marino, Sonia;Stasi, Serenella
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.164-171
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    • 2018
  • Background: In recent years, the interest in health and safety in the workplace has increased. Agriculture is one of the human work activities with the highest risk indexes. Studies on risk perception of agricultural workers are often referred to as specific risk factors (especially pesticides), but the risk perception plays an important role in preventing every kind of accident and occupational disease. Methods: The aim of this research is to test a new method for understanding the relation between risk perception among farmers and the main risk factors to which they are exposed. A secondary aim is to investigate the influence of training in risk perception in agriculture. The data collection was realized using a questionnaire designed to investigate the risk perception; the questionnaire was given to a sample of 119 agricultural workers in central Italy. Through the use of the "principal components analysis" it was possible to highlight and verify the latent dimensions underlying the collected data in comparison with scales of attitudes. Results: Results show that the highest percentage of strong negative attitude is among the people who have worked for more years, while farmers who have worked for fewer years have a marked positive attitude. Conclusion: The analysis of the questionnaires through the synthetic index method (Rizzi index) showed that agricultural workers involved, in particular the elderly workers, have a negative attitude towards safety; workers are hostile to safety measures if they have not attended special training courses.

Obesity Related Adipokines and Colorectal Cancer: A Review and Meta-Analysis

  • Joshi, Rakhi Kumari;Lee, Sang-Ah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.397-405
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    • 2014
  • Obesity has been considered as an important risk factor for the development of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the association has not been fully elucidated. Obesity is linked significantly to adipose tissue dysfunction and to alteration of adipokines in blood; in particular, obesity-induced inflammation is thought to be an important link between obesity and colorectal cancer. Based on epidemiological studies, we undertook a systematic review to understand the association of circulating levels of selected adipokines, including adiponectin, leptin, resistin, IL-6 and TNF-${\alpha}$, with the level of CRC risk. Most prospective studies suggested protective effects of adiponectin, but these were attenuated by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) data in our meta-analysis. On the other hand, meta-analyses for leptin and CRC did not demonstrate any association, similar to the results of systematic review. Although it proved difficult to determine whether other selected adipokines (resistin, IL-6 and TNF-${\alpha}$) were related to CRC risk due to small number of reports, the present systematic review suggested a positive association with elevated resistin levels but null associations with IL-6 and TNF-${\alpha}$.

Using Genetic Algorithm for Optimal Security Hardening in Risk Flow Attack Graph

  • Dai, Fangfang;Zheng, Kangfeng;Wu, Bin;Luo, Shoushan
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.1920-1937
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    • 2015
  • Network environment has been under constant threat from both malicious attackers and inherent vulnerabilities of network infrastructure. Existence of such threats calls for exhaustive vulnerability analyzing to guarantee a secure system. However, due to the diversity of security hazards, analysts have to select from massive alternative hardening strategies, which is laborious and time-consuming. In this paper, we develop an approach to seek for possible hardening strategies and prioritize them to help security analysts to handle the optimal ones. In particular, we apply a Risk Flow Attack Graph (RFAG) to represent network situation and attack scenarios, and analyze them to measure network risk. We also employ a multi-objective genetic algorithm to infer the priority of hardening strategies automatically. Finally, we present some numerical results to show the performance of prioritizing strategies by network risk and hardening cost and illustrate the application of optimal hardening strategy set in typical cases. Our novel approach provides a promising new direction for network and vulnerability analysis to take proper precautions to reduce network risk.