• Title/Summary/Keyword: Parametric Estimation

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Thermal Design Analysis of Triple-Pressure Heat Recovery Steam Generator and Steam Turbine Systems (삼중압 열회수 증기발생기와 중기터빈 시스템의 열설계 해석)

  • Kim, Dong-Seop;Lee, Bong-Ryeol;No, Seung-Tak;Sin, Heung-Tae;Jeon, Yong-Jun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.507-514
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    • 2002
  • A computation routine, capable of performing thermal design analysis of the triple-pressure bottoming system (heat recovery steam generator and steam turbine) of combined cycle power plants, is developed. It is based on thermal analysis of the heat recovery steam generator and estimation of its size and steam turbine power. It can be applied to various parametric analyses including optimized design calculation. This paper presents analysis results for the effects on the design performance of heat exchanger arrangements at intermediate and high temperature parts as well as steam pressures. Also examined is the effect of steam sources for deaeration on design performance.

Comparison of semiparametric methods to estimate VaR and ES (조건부 Value-at-Risk와 Expected Shortfall 추정을 위한 준모수적 방법들의 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Minjo;Lee, Sangyeol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2016
  • Basel committee suggests using Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) as a measurement for market risk. Various estimation methods of VaR and ES have been studied in the literature. This paper compares semi-parametric methods, such as conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) and conditional autoregressive expectile (CARE) methods, and a Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE)-based method through back-testing methods. We use unconditional coverage (UC) and conditional coverage (CC) tests for VaR, and a bootstrap test for ES to check the adequacy. A real data analysis is conducted for S&P 500 index and Hyundai Motor Co. stock price index data sets.

Interpretation of Empirical Cone Factors for Determining Undrained Strength (비배수강도 결정을 위한 콘 지수 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.11
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    • pp.3296-3301
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    • 2009
  • The results of PCPT(Pezocone Penetration Test) are widely used for the estimation of the undrained shear strength, for which the empirical cone factors($N_{kt}$, $N_{ke}$, $N_{{\Delta}u}$) need to be obtained at each site. In this study, the cone factors were estimated, for the soils at Bookmyun area in Changwon city, using the undrained shear strengths from the unconfined and UU triaxial compression tests. The parametric studies with plastic index and pore water pressure ratio were performed as well. $N_{kt}$, $N_{ke}$ and $N_{{\Delta}u}$ were estimated in the ranges of 8~40, 7~37, and 1~26 respectively. It was observed that there is a relationship between the cone factors, specially $N_{{\Delta}u}$, and the pore pressure ratio.

Numerical Analyses about Test Results of Discharge Capacity Apparatus Using Penetration Method (관입식 통수능 실험의 수치해석)

  • Yoo, Nam-Jae;Woo, Young-Min;Jun, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.03a
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    • pp.720-728
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    • 2009
  • This thesis is results of numerical analyses about test results of discharge capacity apparatus using penetration method. Applicability of numerical approach with FEM technique, using Cam-clay model, was confirmed by analyzing the results of standard consolidation test before analyzing test results of discharge capacity apparatus using penetration method. Thus, input parameters for the model was convinced to be appropriate. For numerical analyses about test results of discharge capacity apparatus using penetration method, identical initial and loading conditions during tests were applied to simulate test results correctly. Effects of ground disturbance resulted from installment of vertical drains on the behaviors of consolidation were also simulated. Applicability of numerical approach was investigated by comparing test results with numerical ones. As results of them, both of consolidation settlement were found to be in good agreements so that its applicability was confirmed. As results of numerical estimation, degree of consolidation with the condition of considering smear zone was found to be delayed, compared with results without smear zone. On the other hands, parametric numerical analyses of changing parameters related to smear zone such as permeability and size of smear zone and permeability of vertical drain were also carried out.

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Effects of desiccation on the consolidation behavior of dredged and reclamated soil during period of reclamation (매립기간 중 건조효과가 준설매립토의 압밀거동에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jin-Tae;Ahn, Jung-Seon;Yoo, Nam-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2006.10a
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    • pp.515-520
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    • 2006
  • Yano method had been used in predicting the settlement of self-weight consolidation of dredged soil in the construction of reclamating the dredged soil. Its estimation was found to show some different results from field measurements. The numerical analysis with PSDDF was peformed find such differences, considering the effect of desiccation on the consolidation during the remaining time after reclamation. For the parametric study, numerical analyses with/without consideration of desiccation were carried out with changing the conditions of desiccation such as the number of placing the fill and the time period between each placement. As results of analysis, estimations about consolidation settlement and distribution of water contents with consideration of desiccation was in good agreements with field measurements. It was also found that the number of placing the fill and the time period between each placement did not affect the behavior of self-weight consolidation as much as the effect of desiccation.

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Effect of Bracket and H-beam Members on the Sungsoo Grand Bridge (브라켓 및 H-빔 부재가 성수대교 붕괴에 미친 영향)

  • 조효남;임종권;안중산
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1998.04a
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    • pp.422-430
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents the results of a major parametric study on the collapse cause of the Sungsoo Grand Bridge, a Gerber-type continuous truss bridge, which had collapsed just at the 15th year since opening to traffic. Among the various collapse causes such as poor design, poor welding, poor maintenance, and heavy traffic loads, this study focuses on the collapse cause assessment incorporating the effects of braket and H-beam members right below the expansion joint of the suspended truss. A local FEM analysis using fine shell elements is carrided out for the more precise estimation of stress range of the vertical pin-connected hanger whose fatigue fracture triggered the collapse of the bridge. Both the conventional S-N approach and the Ang-Munse's fatigue reliability method are used for the evaluation of the fatigue life and fatigue failure probability for the assessment based on all the available results of various field and labolatory tests. From these observations, It may be affirmatively stated that the effects of bracket and H-beam members accelerated the fatigue failure, and thus should be regarded as one of major causes that triggered the bridge collapse

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Applicability of Improved Modal Pushover Analysis of Multi-Span Bridges Under Earthquake Load (다경간 연속 교량의 내진성능 평가를 위한 개선된 모드별 비탄성 정적해석방법의 응용성 연구)

  • Kwak, Hyo-Gyoung;Shin, Dong-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.795-800
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    • 2007
  • In the previous study, a simple but effective analysis procedure, named as an Improved Modal Pushover Analysis (IMPA) was proposed to estimates the seismic capacities of multi-span continuous bridge structures, on the basis of the modal pushover analysis which considers all the dynamic modes of a structure. Differently from other previous studies, IMPA maintains the simplicity of the capacity-demand curve method and also gives a better estimation of the maximum dynamic response of a structure. Nevertheless, its applicability has never been approved for multi-span continuous bridges with large differences in the length of their adjacent piers. This paper, accordingly, concentrates on a parametric study to verify the efficiency and limitation in application of IMPA through a correlation study between various analytical models including the Equivalent Single Degree Of Freedom (ESDOF) and Modal Pushover Analysis (MPA) usually used in the seismic design of structures. Based on the obtained numerical results, this paper introduces a practical guidance and/or limitation for using IMPA to predict the seismic response of a bridge effectively.

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Fatigue Life Estimation of Welded Joints considering Statistical Characteristics of Multiple Surface Cracks (복수 표면균열의 확률적 특성을 고려한 용접부 피로수명 평가)

  • Han, Jeong Woo;Han, Seung Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.29 no.11 s.242
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    • pp.1472-1479
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    • 2005
  • Multiple surface crack distributed randomly along a weld toe influences strongly on the fatigue crack propagation life of welded joint. It is investigated by using statistical approaches based on series of systematic experiments. From the statistical results, initial crack numbers and its locations follow the normal distribution, and the probability of initial crack depths and lengths can be described well by tile Weibull distribution. These characteristics are used to calculate the fatigue crack propagation life, in which the mechanisms of mutual interaction and coalescence of the multiple cracks are considered as well as the Mk-factors obtained from a parametric study on the crack depths and lengths. The automatic calculation is achieved by the NESUSS, where the parameters such as the number, location and size of the cracks are all treated as random variables. The random variables are dealt through the Monte-Carlo simulation with sampling random numbers of 2,000. The simulation results show that the multiple cracks lead to much shorter crack propagation life compared with those in single crack situation. The sum of the simulation and tile fatigue crack initiation life derived by the notch strain approach agrees well with the experiments.

Reexamination of Estimating Beta Coecient as a Risk Measure in CAPM

  • Phuoc, Le Tan;Kim, Kee S.;Su, Yingcai
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2018
  • This research examines the alternative ways of estimating the coefficient of non-diversifiable risk, namely beta coefficient, in Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) introduced by Sharpe (1964) that is an essential element of assessing the value of diverse assets. The non-parametric methods used in this research are the robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator). The Jackknife, the resampling technique, is also employed to validate the results. According to finance literature and common practices, these coecients have often been estimated using Ordinary Least Square (LS) regression method and monthly return data set. The empirical results of this research pointed out that the robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator) performed much better than Ordinary Least Square (LS) in terms of eciency for large-cap stocks trading actively in the United States markets. Interestingly, the empirical results also showed that daily return data would give more accurate estimation than monthly return data in both Ordinary Least Square (LS) and robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator) regressions.

A Study on Developing the Acquisition Unit Cost Estimating Model of the Guided Weapon System (유도무기 획득단가 추정 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yonghyun;Lee, Yongbok;Jung, Wonil;Kim, Dongkyu;Kang, Sungjin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.565-576
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    • 2012
  • Cost estimates are necessary for government acquisition program to support decisions about funding, to develop annual budget requests and to validate resource requirements at key decision points. Many researches have been done about cost estimating technique recently. Parametric cost estimating models based on CERs(Cost Estimating Relationships) have been mainly used using regression method with historical data. However, there are many restrictions in developing Korean version CERs because the number of data points are too small. Specially, data collection and data management system are unstable in Korean defense environment, when developing CERs. In this research, we analyzed the historical data, and found some cost drivers in guided weapon system area. We developed the Acquisition Unit Cost CER using the regression to remove multicollinearity in the historical data. So we could overcome the restriction of the insufficient sample number. This research as a first attempt is meaningful in terms of obtaining our own Acquisition Unit Cost CER using historical cost and physical characteristic in Korean development environment.