• 한국항해항만학회지
• /
• 제40권6호
• /
• pp.391-400
• /
• 2016

최근 우리나라 연근해에서 발생한 몇 건의 대형 해양사고에서, 신속하고 체계적인 초기대응이 사고 전개양상과 사고결과에 얼마나 큰 영향을 미치는지를 확인하였다. 또한, 이를 통해 다양한 해양사고 상황에 대한 정확한 정보와 전개될 수 있는 시나리오, 적용 가능한 사고대응 방법들에 대한 정보를 신속하게 확보하는 것이 해양사고 초기대응을 위하여 무엇보다 중요함을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 현실적인 문제를 해결하기 위한 일환으로, 본 연구에서는, '위험도기반 초기대응 지원 시스템'의 개념을 제시하고, 해양사고 이후 전개 가능한 모든 시나리오와 적용 가능한 사고대응 방법들을 식별하기 위하여 사건전개 시나리오 식별 브레인스토밍 기법을 제안하였으며, 식별된 사고대응 방법들의 적용으로 인한 피해저감 효과 등을 정량화하기 위하여 사건수목분석 (Event Tree Analysis: ETA) 기법을 활용한 사건전개수목을 제안하였다. 그리고 각각의 사고대응 방법에 대한 상세분석을 위해서는 PERT/CPM의 사용을 제안하였다. 또한, 상기 제시한 위험도기반 초기대응 지원시스템의 구성 체계를 설명하기 위하여, 유조선 좌초사고에 대한 사고대응 작업을 예로 간략한 위험도분석 작업을 수행하였다.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
• /
• 제25권5호
• /
• pp.287-297
• /
• 2022

The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption. One hundred fifty-six oyster samples were collected to examine the norovirus prevalence. The oyster samples were inoculated with murine norovirus and stored at 4℃-25℃. A plaque assay determined norovirus titers. The norovirus titers were fitted with the Baranyi model to calculate shoulder period (h) and death rate (Log PFU/g/h). These kinetic parameters were fitted to a polynomial model as a function of temperature. Distribution temperature and time were surveyed, and consumption data were surveyed. A dose-response model was also searched through literature. The simulation model was prepared with these data in @RISK to estimate the probability of norovirus foodborne. One sample of 156 samples was norovirus positive. Thus, the initial contamination level was estimated by the Beta distribution (2, 156), and the level was -5.3 Log PFU/g. The developed predictive models showed that the norovirus titers decreased in oysters under the storage conditions simulated with the Uniform distribution (0.325, 1.643) for time and the Pert distribution (10, 18, 25) for temperature. Consumption ratio of raw oyster was 0.98%, and average consumption amount was 1.82 g, calculated by the Pert distribution [Pert {1.8200, 1.8200, 335.30, Truncate (0, 236.8)}]. ₁F₁ hypergeometric dose-response model [1 - (1 + 2.55 × 10^-3 × dose)^-0.086] was appropriate to evaluate dose-response. The simulation showed that the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption was 5.90 × 10^-10 per person per day. The annual socioeconomic cost of consuming raw oysters contaminated with norovirus was not very high.

• 한국생물공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국생물공학회 2005년도 생물공학의 동향(XVI)
• /
• pp.538-539
• /
• 2005

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2000년도 춘계공동학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.538-541
• /
• 2000

Goldratt박사에 의해 제창된 TOC(Theory of Constraints)는 제약조건을 찾아 개선시켜 없애고 시스템 심과를 높일 수 있는 방안을 찾는 제약이론이다. 생산공정을 포함한 모든 분야에서 제약이란 없을 수가 없다. 따라서 기존의 MRP나 PERT/CPM과 같은 무한 자원 스케줄링으로는 예상하지 못한 문제가 도출될 수 밖에 없는 한계를 제약공정의 자원능력이 유한하다는 가정에서 출발하는 제약이론으로 자원활용의 최적화를 도모할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 TOC와 많은 유사점을 가지고 있는 생산시스템인 JIT와 비교하여 아직 국내에는 활발한 연구가 이루어지고 있지 않은 TOC를 기반으로 최적 생산시스템을 연구하고자 한다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제14권24호
• /
• pp.53-69
• /
• 1991

This paper is concerned with software developments for scheduling and sequencing of FMS. The scheduling algorithms are developed for 3 types of FMS:single machine type FMS, flowshop type FMS. assembly line type FMS. For the single machine type FMS. full enumeration algorithm is used. For the flowshop type FMS heuristic algorithms are developed. For the assembly type FMS the exsisting PERT/CPM algorithm is applied. Numerical examples are presented for illustration of each algorithm. Each soft ware program list are attached as appendices.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국건설관리학회 2004년도 제5회 정기학술발표대회 논문집
• /
• pp.210-215
• /
• 2004

프로젝트의 계획단계에서 명확한 업무의 정의와 업무간의 상관관계, 자원계획 및 일정계획이 수행되지 않으면, 공사의 진행 시에 많은 변경과 일정 $\cdot$ 비용 상의 문제를 가져올 수 있다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 사례연구를 중심으로 프로젝트 계획단계에서 최적의 소요공기 산정을 위해서 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션과 선형계획법을 적용한 결과, 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 사용함으로써 각각의 활동이 독립적이고, 프로젝트 소요시간에 대해서 정규분포를 따른다는 가정의 제약조건을 해소함으로 보다 신뢰한 만한 일정 추정이 가능하였으며, 주 경로와 주 경로에 근접한 경로에 신뢰할 만한 일정편차를 계산할 수 있었다. 또한, 선형계획법을 동해서 최적의 소요비용 산정이 가능하였으며, 프로젝트 목표소요공기의 변동에 따른 최적의 목표공기를 산정할 수 있었다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2006년도 춘계공동학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.373-378
• /
• 2006

Recently the technical advances and complexities have generated much of the difficulties in managing the project resources, for both scheduling and costing to accomplish the project in the most efficient manner. The project manager is frequently required to render judgments concerning the schedule and resource adjustments. This research develops an analytical model for a schedule-cost and risk analysis based on visual PERT/CPM. We used a three-step approach: 1) in the first step, a deterministic PERT/CPM model for the critical path and estimating the project time schedule and related resource planning and we developed a heuristic model for crash and stretch out analysis based upon a time-cost trade-off associated with the crash and stretch out of the project. 2) In second step, we developed web-based risk evaluation model for project analysis. Major technologies used for this step are AHP (analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy-AHP, multi-attribute analysis, stochastic network simulation, and web based decision support system. Also we have developed computer programs and have shown the results of sample runs for an R&D project risk analysis. 3) We developed an optimization model for project resource allocation. We used AHP weighted values and optimization methods. Computer implementation for this model is provided based on GUI-Type objective-oriented programming for the users and provided displays of all the inputs and outputs in the form of GUI-Type. The results of this research will provide the project managers with efficient management tools.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제39권1호
• /
• pp.9-16
• /
• 2016

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 추계 학술발표회
• /
• pp.1532-1548
• /
• 2008

The tunnel type spillways is under construction to increasing water reservoir capacity in Dae-am dam. The tunnel outlet was planned to be made after installing slope stabilization system on natural slope there. Generally, the tunnel outlet is made perpendicularly to the slope, but in this case, it had to be made obliquely to the slope for not interrupting flow of river. Because of excavation in condition of natural slope caused to deflecting earth pressure, the outlet couldn't be made. So, artificial ground made with concrete that it was constructed in the outside of tunnel for producing the arching effect which enables to make a outlet. We were planned tunnel excavation was carried out after artificial ground made. Artificial ground made by poor mix concrete of which it was planned that the thickness was at least 3.0m height from outside of tunnel lining and 30cm of height per pouring. Spreading and compaction was planned utilized weight of 15 ton roller machine. In order to access of working truck, slope of artificial ground was designed 1:1.0 and applied 2% slope in upper pert of it for easily drainage of water. In addition to, upper pert of artificial ground was covered with soil, because of impaction of rock fall from upper slope was made minimum. The tunnel excavation of the artificial ground was designed application with special blasting method that it was Super Wedge and control blasting utilized with pre-percussion hole.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.78-84
• /
• 1986

일차섭동이론을 이용하여 물질밀도 감도 계수의 표현식을 유도하였다. Super-Phenix I 평형노심의 초기상태를 기준계로 택했으며 유효중배계수를 계의 응답함수로 정의했다. 볼츠만 연산자의 구성요 소인 물질밀도로 표현되는 핵연료의 농축도와 실효밀도를 입력변화로 선정했다. 위 계산을 수행하는데 전산코드시스템 (KAERI-26군 단면적 library/1DX/2DB/PERT-V)가 사용되었다. 핵연료 농축도의 유효증배계수에 대한 감도계수는 4.576로 계산되었으며, 핵연료 실효밀도의 감도 계수는 0.0756으로 계산되었다. 본 연구는 감도해석법이 대형전산코드를 이용한 직접반복계산법에 비해 계산시간의 단축과 아울러 많은 정보를 준다는 것을 보여준다.