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A study on the Assessment of the Predictability of the APSM (APSM의 예측능 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 박기하;윤순창
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2003
  • The Pasquill-Gifford stability category is a very important scheme of the Gaussian type dispersion model defined the complex turbulence state of the atmosphere by A grade(very unstable) to F grade(very stable). But there has been made a point out that this stability category might decrease the predictability of the model because it was each covers a broad range of stability conditions, and that they were very site specific. The APSM (Air Pollution Simulation Model) was composed of the turbulent parameters, i.e. friction velocity(${\mu}$$\_$*/), convective velocity scale($\omega$$\_$*/) and Monin-Obukhov length scale(L) for the purpose of the performance increasing on the case of the unstable atmospheric conditions. And the PDF (Probability Density Function)model was used to express the vertical dispersion characteristics and the profile method was used to calculate the turbulent characteristics. And the performance assessment was validated between APSM and EPA regulatory models(TEM, ISCST), tracer experiment results. There were very good performance results simulated by APSM than that of TEM, ISCST in the short distance (<1415 m) from the source, but increase the simulation error(%) to stand off the source in others. And there were differences in comparison with the lateral dispersion coefficient($\sigma$$\_$y/) which was represent the horizontal dispersion characteristics of a air pollutant in the atmosphere. So the different calculation method of $\sigma$$\_$y/ which was extrapolated from a different tracer experiment data might decrease the simulation performance capability. In conclusion, the air pollution simulation model showed a good capability of predict the air pollution which was composed of the turbulent parameters compared with the results of TEM and ISCST for the unstable atmospheric conditions.

Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

On Developing a Semantic Annotation Tool for Managing Metadata of Web Documents based on XMP and Ontology (웹 문서의 메타데이터 관리를 위한 XMP 및 온톨로지 기반의 시맨틱 어노테이션 지원도구 개발)

  • Yang, Kyoung-Mo;Hwang, Suk-Hyung;Choi, Sung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.1585-1600
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    • 2009
  • The goal of Semantic Web is to provide efficient and effective semantic search and web services based on the machine-processable semantic information of web resources. Therefore, the process of creating and adding computer-understandable metadata for a variety of web contents, namely, semantic annotation is one of the fundamental technologies for the semantic web. Recently, in order to manage annotation metadata, direct approach for embedding metadata into the document is mainly used in semantic annotation. However, many semantic annotation tools for web documents have been mainly worked with HTML documents, and most of these tools do not support semantic search functionalities using the metadata. In this paper, based on these problems and previous works, we propose the Ontology-based Semantic Annotation tool(OSA) to efficiently support semantic annotation for web documents(such as HTML, PDF). We define a semantic annotation model that represents ontological-semantic information by using RDFS(RDF Schema). Based on XMP(eXtensible Metadata Platform) standard, the model is encoded directly into the document. By using OSA with XMP, user can perform semantic annotation on web documents which are able to keep compatibility for managing annotation metadata. Eventually, the integrated semantic annotation metadata can be used effectively in semantic search for a variety of web contents.

Comparison of Ensemble Perturbations using Lorenz-95 Model: Bred vectors, Orthogonal Bred vectors and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter(ETKF) (로렌쯔-95 모델을 이용한 앙상블 섭동 비교: 브레드벡터, 직교 브레드벡터와 앙상블 칼만 필터)

  • Chung, Kwan-Young;Barker, Dale;Moon, Sun-Ok;Jeon, Eun-Hee;Lee, Hee-Sang
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.217-230
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    • 2007
  • Using the Lorenz-95 simple model, which can simulate many atmospheric characteristics, we compare the performance of ensemble strategies such as bred vectors, the bred vectors rotated (to be orthogonal to each bred member), and the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF). The performance metrics used are the RMSE of ensemble means, the ratio of RMS error of ensemble mean to the spread of ensemble, rank histograms to see if the ensemble member can well represent the true probability density function (pdf), and the distribution of eigen-values of the forecast ensemble, which can provide useful information on the independence of each member. In the meantime, the orthogonal bred vectors can achieve the considerable progress comparing the bred vectors in all aspects of RMSE, spread, and independence of members. When we rotate the bred vectors for orthogonalization, the improvement rate for the spread of ensemble is almost as double as that for RMS error of ensemble mean compared to the non-rotated bred vectors on a simple model. It appears that the result is consistent with the tentative test on the operational model in KMA. In conclusion, ETKF is superior to the other two methods in all terms of the assesment ways we used when it comes to ensemble prediction. But we cannot decide which perturbation strategy is better in aspect of the structure of the background error covariance. It appears that further studies on the best perturbation way for hybrid variational data assimilation to consider an error-of-the-day(EOTD) should be needed.

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Prognosis of Crack Growth under Variable Amplitude Loading (변동진폭하중 하에서 균열성장예지를 위한 베이지안 모델변수 추정법)

  • Leem, Sang-Hyuck;An, Da-Wn;Choi, Joo-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1299-1306
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    • 2011
  • In this study, crack-growth model parameters subjected to variable amplitude loading are estimated in the form of a probability distribution using the method of Bayesian parameter estimation. Huang's model is employed to describe the retardation and acceleration of the crack growth during the loadings. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to obtain samples of the parameters following the probability distribution. As the conventional MCMC method often fails to converge to the equilibrium distribution because of the increased complexity of the model under variable amplitude loading, an improved MCMC method is introduced to overcome this shortcoming, in which a marginal (PDF) is employed as a proposal density function. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of the data from several test specimens subjected to constant amplitude loading. The prediction is then made under variable amplitude loading for the same specimen, and validated by the ground-truth data using the estimated parameters.

A Study on the Communication Channel Model Using the Space Diversity Technique in Railroad Tunnel Section (철도터널구간에서 공간다이버 시티 기법을 이용한 통신채널 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyeok;Kim, Min-Seok;Jeon, Tae-Hyun;Lee, Jong-Woo
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.1044-1053
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    • 2010
  • Transmitting correct train control information is important in a train control system which demands safety. The train control information includes the maximum speed of trains, position of preceding trains, incline of tracks and curve sections etc. A radio frequency-communication based train control system is influenced by the noise and interference because the train control information is transmitted by wireless between a on-board system and wayside system. The radio frequency-communication based train control system is a mobile communication system due to moving trains. The inter symbol interference(ISI) occurs by the multipath fading in the mobile ommunication system. As signal-to-noise ratio(SNR) is decreased by the ISI, the train control information is not received correctly. In case of tunnel section, numerous reflected waves exist. Therefore, the power density of receiver is decreased by difference among the received times, magnitudes, phases through the multipath. So, the train suddenly is stopped by the fail-safe operation in the train control system on account of decreasing the power density of receiver. In this paper, a line of sight model-(Additive White Gaussian noise(AWGN) channel), rayleigh and rician fading model are presented. Probability density functions which are related to the SNR are derived from the models. The fading phenomenon severely occurs as a result of analyzing the probability density functions. So, the space diversity method is used in order to reduce the fading effect and it is demonstrated by using Matlab program.

  • PDF

A Study on Sensitivity Analysis by PDF in T7F Model (T7F Model에서 차량군분산계수변화에 따른 민감도분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Eui-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.14 no.1 s.35
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to correct data on 3 intersection ranging from Kwangchun INT. to Nongsung INT. by the means of VTR recording and site survey and to measure the responsiveness of performance index by diversifying the platoon dispersion factor in signal progression simulation. The results are as follows : 1. The value of platoon dispersion factor was 0.28-0.33. The value in up stream is lower than that of in down stream even on the same intersection. 2. The platoon index showed big changes, though performance index didn't according to platoon dispersion factor. Therefore the value of platoon dispersion factor which is inner variable in T7F can be fixed for 0.34. 3. There was only little divergence in performance index changes according to platoon dispersion factor in designing the progression or T7F model.

  • PDF

Performance Analysis of Amplify-and-Forward Relaying in Cooperative Networks with Partial Relay Selection (부분 중계노드 선택 기반의 협력 네트워크에서 증폭 후 전송 방식에 대한 성능분석)

  • Hwang, Ho-seon;Ahn, Kyung-seung
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.2317-2323
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we analyze the performance of dual-hop amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying in cooperative networks with partial relay selection. An AF relay gain considered in this paper includes channel-noise-assisted relay gain. Leveraging a received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) model, we derive exact closed-form expressions for the probability density function (pdf) and cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the end-to-end SNR. Moreover, an exact closed-form expression of the ergodic capacity for dual-hop AF relaying with channel-noise-assisted relay gain and partial relay selection is investigated. The analytical results shown in this paper are confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulations.

Bacillus vallismortis Strain EXTN-1 Mediated Systemic Resistance against Potato virus Y and X in the Field

  • Park, Kyung-Seok;Paul, Diby;Ryu, Kyung-Ryl;Kim, Eun-Yung;Kim, Yong-Ki
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.360-363
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    • 2006
  • Efficacy of plant growth promoting rhizobacteria(PGPR) Bacillus vallismortis strain EXTN-1 has been proved in eliciting induced systemic resistance(ISR) in several crops. The present paper described the beneficial effects of EXTN-1 in potato as increase in yield and chlorophyll content, and plant protection against Potato Virus Y and X(PVY & PVX). EXTN-1 induced systemic resistance to the plants resulting in significant disease suppression in the field. Also the plants under treatment with EXTN-1 had higher chlorophyll content. The bacterized plants had significantly higher yields over the untreated control plants. The strain induced activation of defense genes, PR-1a and PDF 1.2 in transgenic tobacco model, which indicated the possible role of both SA, and JA pathways in EXTN-1 mediated plant protection against crop diseases.

Probabilistic Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Structures considering Joint Fastening and Tolerance (체결부 및 공차를 고려한 구조물의 확률기반 동적 특성 연구)

  • Won, Jun-Ho;Kwang, Kang-Jin;Choi, Joo-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2010
  • Structural vibration is a significant problem in many multi-part or multi-component assemblies. In aircraft industry, structures are composed of various fasteners, such as bolts, snap, hinge, weld or other fastener or connector (collectively "fasteners"). Due to these, prediction and design involving dynamic characteristics is quite complicated. However, the current state of the art does not provide an analytical tool to effectively predict structure's dynamic characteristics, because consideration of structural uncertainties (i.e. material properties, geometric tolerance, dimensional tolerance, environment and so on) is difficult and very small fasteners in the structure cause a huge amount of analysis time to predict dynamic characteristics using the FEM (finite element method). In this study, to resolve the current state of the art, a new approach is proposed using the FEM and probabilistic analysis. Firstly, equivalent elements are developed using simple element (e.g. bar, beam, mass) to replace fasteners' finite element model. Developed equivalent elements enable to explain static behavior and dynamic behavior of the structure. Secondly, probabilistic analysis is applied to evaluate the PDF (probability density function) of dynamic characteristics due to tolerance, material properties and so on. MCS (Monte-Carlo simulation) is employed for this. Proposed methodology offers efficiency of dynamic analysis and reality of the field as well. Simple plates joined by fasteners are taken as an example to illustrate the proposed method.