• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.246-252
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• 2015

This paper compared the consistency of the Environment Stress(ES) model and the Potential Risk Assessment Model (PARK model, which was developed based on a Korean mariner risk perception) for the Busan adjacent waterway. Evaluation of accuracy and comparison of these two models have been made by Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) officers in the Busan VTS Centre. The assessment results of Busan waterway show that the PARK model is more consistent than the ES model as follows. (1) The difference between assessment results applying ES model and PARK model with risk degree of VTSOs were 34% and 5% respectively in six typical traffic situations. (2) The assessment using PARK model is more suitable and identical with the VTSOs opinion in his or her duty time.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.120-128
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• 1993

This study suggests one hypothesis: The strength of the catchment forces of urban community parks can be represented as an equilibrium point model, which is derived from a centrality index for. That model was designed by Reilly(1931) and developed by Godlund(1956). An equilibrium point model for the catchments is represented as followed formulae: m=$\frac{CA2}{CA-CB}$ m=$\frac {{{{{L SQRT {{C}_{A}$.$ {C}_{B}} {CA-CB} Here, m is distance from the center of park A to the cetner of park B. r is radius of a circle where the catchment between park A and B is equal pointed traces. CA is index of the centrality of park A from Reilly's Law. CB is an index of the centrality of park B from Reilly's Law. L is an the distance between park A and B. The equilibrium point model is testified in the case of Chong-ju community parks. The testification has been limited to the application to such manifest outdoor recreational facilities as bentches, even though there are statistically and economically problems for a quantitative model to be testified. But the testification could be a rationale for the catchment forces of urban community parks, which was quantitatively represented that the distance between two or there parks should be related with the feasibility of the parks. Therefore, the urban community park should be planned to be located, hiving separately its identity that might be considered with the facility diversification and the locational competitiveness of a park.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제100권1호
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• pp.124-130
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• 2011

본 연구는 국립공원 탐방 수요예측에 적합한 모형을 추정하고, 계절 ARIMA Model을 이용하여 국립공원 탐방수요를 예측하였다. 분석 자료는 2003년 1월부터 2010년 12월까지 우리나라 18개 국립공원의 월별 탐방객 수 자료를 이용하였다. 분석결과 $ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)_{12}$모형이 국립공원 탐방수요를 예측하는데 적합한 모형으로 선정되었으며, MAPE를 이용한 사후평가 결과에서도 모형의 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 본 연구 결과는 국립공원 탐방수요 예측기법의 신뢰성 및 타당성 향상과 함께 국립공원 관리전략 수립에 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.331-336
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• 2015

In this study, a numerical model developed for sunshine duration based on GIS data was used. This model considers blocking caused by topography and buildings and it is properly applicable to evaluation of sunshine duration environment in urban areas. The model reasonably well predicted the solar altitude and azimuth angels, compared to those provided by Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). The developed model was applied to evaluation of sunshine duration environment around the Seonleung Park located near a building-congested area in Seoul. The model well reproduced shadow caused by buildings and/or topography in the numerical domain at 09:00 on August 1, 2015. In addition, the model was applied to finding a suitable measurement sites for pyrheliometer around the Seonleung Park. The model was also usefully applied to finding a suitable site for pyrheliometer in an urban area.

• Spatial Information Research
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.501-513
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• 2002

Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) is one of endangered wildlife species whose population size is declining in Korea. To manage and conserve habitat for Eurasian otter, it is crucial to understand which habitat components affect otter habitat qualities. The objectives of this study were to develop a habitat suitability model of Eurasian otter in Soraksan National Park, to validate the model in Odaesan National Park. The research methods of this study were as follows. First, trace data and characters of Eurasian otter habitat were collected with Geographic Information System (GIS) data and Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers between 2000 and 2002. Second, the habitat use factors were identified as habitat characteristics of Eurasian otter and classified with habitat use and availability analyses. Third, significant factors of habitat model were extracted by Chi-square test. The last, Eurasian Otter Habitat Suitability Model (EOHSM) was employed by logistic regression method. Otter habitat use was positively associated with the reeds and shrubs areas adjacent to streams, the size of boulders, and low human disturbance in Soraksan National Park by EOHSM. This model had a classification accuracy of 74.4% at cutoff value of 0.5. Model validation showed a classification accuracy of 86.6 % at cut off value of 0.5 for otter habitat in Odaesan National Park.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.18-27
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• 2000

The importance of constraints has been one of major issues in recreation for prediction of choice behavior; however, traditional conjoint choice model did not consider the effects of these variables or fail to integrate them into choice model adequately. The purposes of this research are (a) to estimate the effects of constraints in theme park choice behavior by the constraints-induced conjoint choice model, and (b) to test additional explanatory power of the additional constraints in this suggested model against the more parsimonious traditional model. A leading polling agency was employed to select respondents. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the constraints-induced conjoint choice model. Th alternative-specific model was calibrated. The log-likelihood ratio test revealed that suggested model was accepted in the favor of the traditional model, and the goodness-of-fit($\rho$$^2$) of suggested and traditional model was 0.48427 and 0.47950, respectively. There was no difference between traditional and suggested model in estimates of attribute levels of car and shuttle bus because alternatives were created to estimate the effects of constraints independently from mode related variables. Most parameters values of constraints had the expected sign and magnitude: the results reflected the characteristics of the theme parks, such as abundance of natural attractions and poor accessibility in Everland, location of major fun rides indoor in Lotte World, city park like characteristics of Dream Land, and traffic jams in Seoul. Instead of the multinomial logit model, the nested logit model is recommended for future researches because this model more reasonably reflects the real decision-making process in park choice. Development of new methodology too integrate this hierarchical decision-making into choice model is anticipated.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.19-28
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• 2000

The purposes of this study are two folds: a) to introduce conjoint choice model to research the choice behavior of theme park users, and b) to suggest the strategies to strengthen the competitiveness of theme parks. The major four theme parks in Seoul metropolitan areas were selected as study areas. A leading polling agency was employed to select 432 respondents by probability sampling and to conduct face-to-face interview. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted simultaneously to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the conjoint choice model. Dummy coding was used to represent the attribute levels, and the alternative-specific model was calibrated. The goodness-of-fit of the model was quite satisfactory($\rho$$^2$=0.47950), and most parameters values had to expected sign and magnitude. Car was preferred transport mode to shuttle bus for visiting theme parks ; however the most ideal attribute levels only were estimated significantly. Most attribute levels of shuttle bus were estimated significantly except the Dream Land, which is the least attractive park among study areas. Simulation results showed that the shuttle bus was a mode worth providing to switch the current car dominant visiting pattern of theme parks, which will be one the effective strategies to attract more patrons, especially for potential users adjacent to parks. Several ideals were suggested for future researches, in terms of utilization of more general utility function and new base alternative, and inclusion of more salient attributes such as constraints in the model.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.96-111
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• 1997

This study was carried out to identify users' choice behavior of theme parks. overland. Lotte World, Seoul Land, Dreamland and Children's Grand Park were selected as study areas. Both multinomial logic model(MNL), nested logic model(NMNL) and joint logit model wet$.$e test using a choice-based sample collected on study areas. Hausman-McFadden test showed that the MNL is not appropriate because the IIA assumption is violated. To avoid the problematic IIA assumption, the NMNL was tested. It splits similar alternatives into groups and nests separate decisions into hierarchical order to avoid the IIA assumption. Cluster analysis and discriminant analysis were conducted to find applicable nest structures. The inclusive value coefficient was 0.7788. It meant that sufficient condition of this model is met and users' choice behavior can be better understood by NMNL than MNL. The $\rho$2 value and accuracy of prediction of this model were 0.402 and 46.33% , respectively. Several comments were suggested to make the NMNL to be more reliable for future research on users' choice behavior of theme park.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.257-263
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• 2016

Mombasa is the principle port of Kenya, serving inland countries in Eastern and central Africa. Mombasa port has undergone a massive infrastructure upgrade and dredging works with an expectation that more vessels and large post Panamax ships will be able to enter Mombasa port. Therefore, it is vital to carry out a marine traffic risk assessment in order to quantify the degree of navigation safety needed in the Mombasa approach channel and also to evaluate the navigation risk imposed on transit traffic by local ferry traffic. In this paper, a marine traffic risk assessment is carried out using the IWRAP mk2, Environmental Stress (ES) model, and the PARK model. Risk assessment results show that Likoni area has an unacceptable stress/risk ranking at 20.7% by the ES model and 38.89% by the PARK model. The IWRAP mk2 model shows that the crossing area has the highest risk of crossing collision and the area at the entrance to the inner channel has a high risk of grounding. The conclusions derived from this study will provide the basis for proposing the most effective countermeasure to improve navigation safety in the Mombasa approach channel.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2016년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.81-84
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• 2016

Mombasa is the principle port of Kenya, serving hinter countries in Eastern and central Africa. Mombasa port has undergone a massive infrastructure upgrade and dredging works with an expectation that more vessels and large post Panamax ships will be able to call at Mombasa port. Therefore, it is vital to carry out a marine traffic risk assessment so as to quantify the degree of navigation safety on Mombasa approach channel and also to evaluate navigation risk imposed on transit traffic by local ferry traffic. In this paper marine traffic risk assessment is carried out using IWRAP mk2, Environmental Stress model, and PARK model. Risk assessment results show that Likoni area has unacceptable stress/ risk ranking at 20.7% on ES model and 38.89% by PARK model. IWRAP mk2 model shows that crossing area has the highest risk of crossing collision and the area at the entrance to inner channel has a high risk of grounding. The conclusions derived from this study will provide the basis for proposing the most effective countermeasure so as to improve navigation safety in Mombasa approach channel.