• Title/Summary/Keyword: Overestimation

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Overestimation of Radioactivity Concentration of Difficult-To-Measure Radionuclides in Scaling Factor Methodology

  • Park, Junghwan;Kim, Tae-Hyeong;Lee, Jeongmook;Kim, Junhyuck;Kim, Jong-Yun;Lim, Sang Ho
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.367-386
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    • 2021
  • The overestimation and underestimation of the radioactivity concentration of difficult-to-measure radionuclides can occur during the implementation of the scaling factor (SF) method because of the uncertainties associated with sampling, radiochemical analysis, and application of SFs. Strict regulations ensure that the SF method as an indirect method does not underestimate the radioactivity of nuclear wastes; however, there are no clear regulatory guidelines regarding the overestimation. This has been leading to the misuse of the SF methodology by stakeholders such as waste disposal licensees and regulatory bodies. Previous studies have reported instances of overestimation in statistical implementation of the SF methodology. The analysis of the two most popular linear models of the SF methodology showed that severe overestimation may occur and radioactivity concentration data must be dealt with care. Since one major source of overestimation is the use of minimum detectable activity (MDA) values as true activity values, a comparative study of instrumental techniques that could reduce the MDAs was also conducted. Thermal ionization mass spectrometry was recommended as a suitable candidate for the trace level analysis of long-lived beta-emitters such as iodine-129. Additionally, the current status of the United States and Korea was reviewed from the perspective of overestimation.

Analysis and Probability of Overestimation by an Imperfect Inspector with Errors of Triangular Distributions (삼각 과오 분포를 가진 불완전한 검사원의 과대 추정 확률과 분석)

  • Yang, Moon Hee;Cho, Jae Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.117-132
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    • 2018
  • There always exist nonzero inspection errors whether inspectors are humans or automatic inspection machines. Inspection errors can be categorized by two types, type I error and type II error, and they can be regarded as either a constant or a random variable. Under the assumption that two types of random inspection errors are distributed with the "uniform" distribution on a half-open interval starting from zero, it was proved that inspectors overestimate any given fraction defective with the probability more than 50%, if and only if the given fraction defective is smaller than a critical value, which depends upon only the ratio of a type II error over a type I error. In addition, it was also proved that the probability of overestimation approaches one hundred percent as a given fraction defective approaches zero. If these critical phenomena hold true for any error distribution, then it might have great economic impact on commercial inspection plans due to the unfair overestimation and the recent trend of decreasing fraction defectives in industry. In this paper, we deal with the same overestimation problem, but assume a "symmetrical triangular" distribution expecting better results since our triangular distribution is closer to a normal distribution than the uniform distribution. It turns out that the overestimation phenomenon still holds true even for the triangular error distribution.

Overestimation of Ultimate Tendon Stress in a Prestressed Concrete Beam with Unbonded Tendons (비부착 긴장재를 갖는 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 보에서 긴장재 응력의 과대평가)

  • 이종윤;임재형;문정호;신경재
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 1999
  • The present study is to examine the ACI code equations for computing the unbonded tendon stress at flexural failure of prestressed beams. The equations examined for their validity are Eq. 18-4 and Eq. 18-5 of the ACI 318-95. Since the possibility of overestimation was expected with the equations, a numerical study, first, was carried out with influential variables included. From this study, it was found that amount of reinforcements, effective prestress, location of tendons, and loading type may affect the overestimation of the unbonded tendon stress. Then, an experimental study was carried out with those variables. A total of 8 specimens was tested to prove the theoretical findings as well as the effect of those variables. As a result. it was proven that the ACI Code equations can overestimate significantly the unbonded tendon stress for certain cases.

Overestimation of own body weights in female university students: associations with lifestyles, weight control behaviors and depression

  • Kim, Mi-So;Lee, Hong-Mie
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.4 no.6
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    • pp.499-506
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    • 2010
  • The study aimed to analyze the lifestyles, weight control behavior, dietary habits, and depression of female university students. The subjects were 532 students from 8 universities located in 4 provinces in Korea. According to percent ideal body weight, 33 (6.4%), 181 (34.0%), 283 (53.2%), 22 (4.1%) and 13 (2.5%) were severely underweight, underweight, normal, overweight and obese, respectively, based on self-reported height and weight. As much as 64.1 % and only 2.4%, respectively, overestimated and underestimated their body weight status. Six overweight subjects were excluded from overestimation group for the purpose of this study, resulting in overestimation group consisting of only underweight and normal weight subjects. Compared to those from the normal perception group, significantly more subjects from the overestimation group were currently smoking (P=0.017) and drank more often than once a week (P=0.015), without any significant differences in dietary habits. Despite similar BMIs, subjects who overestimated their own weight statuses had significantly higher weight dissatisfaction (P= 0.000), obesity stress (P= 0.000), obsession to lose weight (P = 0.007) and depression (P = 0.018). Also, more of them wanted to lose weight (P = 0.000), checked their body weights more often than once a week (P=0.025) and had dieting experiences using 'reducing meal size' (P=0.012), 'reducing snacks' (P=0.042) and 'taking prescribed pills' (P = 0.032), and presented 'for a wider range of clothes selection' as the reason for weight loss (P = 0.039), although none was actually overweight or obese. Unlike the case with overestimating one's own weight, being overweight was associated with less drinking 0.035) and exercising more often (P=0.001) and for longer (P=0.001) and healthier reasons for weight control (P=0.002), despite no differences in frequency of weighing and depression. The results showed that weight overestimation, independent of weight status, is associated with risky lifestyles, weight control behaviors, and mental conditions. Preventive interventions should focus not only on obesity, but also on body weight overestimation.

Impact Analysis of Overestimation Sources on the Accuracy of the Worst Case Timing Analysis for RISC Processors (RISC 프로세서를 대상으로 한 최악 실행시간 분석의 정확도에 대한 과예측 원인별 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Seong-Gwan;Min, Sang-Ryeol;Ha, Ran;Kim, Jong-Sang
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.467-478
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    • 1999
  • 실시간 태스크의 최악 실행시간을 예측할 때 과예측이 발생하는 원인은, 첫째 프로그램의 동적인 최악 실행 행태를 정적으로 분석하는 것이 근본적으로 어렵기 때문이며, 둘째 최근의 RISC 형태 프로세서에 포함되어 있는 파이프라인 실행 구조와 캐쉬 등이 그러한 정적 분석을 더욱 어렵게 만들기 때문이다. 그런데 기존의 연구에서는 각각의 과예측 원인을 해결하기 위한 방법에 대해서만 언급하고 있을 뿐 분석의 정확도에서 각 원인이 차지하는 비중에 대해서는 언급하고 있지 않다. 이에 본 연구에서는 최악 실행시간 예측시 과예측을 유발하는 원인들, 즉 분석 요소들의 영향을 정량적으로 조사함으로써 기존의 최악 실행시간 분석 기법들이 보완해야 할 방향을 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 실험이 특정 분석 기법에 의존하지 않도록 하기 위하여 시뮬레이션 방법에 기반한다. 이를 위해 분석 요소별 스위치가 포함된 MIPS R3000 프로세서를 위한 시뮬레이터를 구현하였는데, 각 스위치는 해당 분석 요소에 대한 분석의 정확도 수준을 결정한다. 모든 스위치 조합에 대해서 시뮬레이션을 반복 수행한 다음 분산 분석을 수행하여 어떤 분석 요소가 가장 큰 영향을 끼치는지 고찰한다.Abstract Existing analysis techniques for estimating the worst case execution time (WCET) of real-time tasks still suffer from significant overestimation due to two types of overestimation sources. First, it is unavoidably difficult to predict dynamic behavior of programs statically. Second, pipelined execution and caching found in recent RISC-style processors even more complicate such a prediction. Although these overestimation sources have been attacked in many existing analysis techniques, we cannot find in the literature any description about questions like which one is most important. Thus, in this paper, we quantitatively analyze the impacts of overestimation sources on the accuracy of the worst case timing analysis. Using the results, we can identify dominant overestimation sources that should be analyzed more accurately to get tighter WCET estimations. To make our method independent of any existing analysis techniques, we use simulation based methodology. We have implemented a MIPS R3000 simulator equipped with several switches, each of which determines the accuracy level of the timing analysis for the corresponding overestimation source. After repeating simulation for all of the switch combinations, we perform the variance analysis and study which factor has the largest impact on the accuracy of the predicted WCETs.

Weight misperception and its association with dieting methods and eating behaviors in South Korean adolescents

  • Lim, Hyunjung;Lee, Hae-Jeung;Park, Sangshin;Kim, Cho-Il;Joh, Hee-Kyung;Oh, Sang Woo
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.213-219
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    • 2014
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is little information on the association between weight misperception and eating behavior in Korean adolescents. Therefore, we investigated the association of food intake habits and dieting method and disturbed eating behavior (DEB) in relation to weight misperception. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data was collected by using a nationwide online panel survey from 6,943 adolescents enrolled in middle/high school. DEB was measured with the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26) and those who scored ${\geq}20$ on the EAT-26 were considered to have eating disorder. Logistic regressions were conducted to examine the association between weight misperception based on self-reported weight status and dieting method and eating behaviors. RESULTS: The proportion of weight underestimation was 23.5% and that of overestimation was 24.0%. Weight overestimating girls were more likely to engage in various unhealthy dieting practices (OR = 1.69 for fasting; OR = 1.88 for laxative or diuretic use; OR = 2.05 for self-induced vomiting after meals; P < 0.05). Moreover, there was a strong association between overestimation and undesirable eating behaviors, especially among girls, e.g.: having breakfast (OR = 0.85), high consumption of fast foods (OR = 1.28) and regular sodas (OR = 1.39), but not among boys. In both genders, weight overestimation appears to be a major risk factor for DEB (OR = 1.34 for boys and OR = 1.41 for girls; P < 0.05). CONSLUSIONS: Weight overestimation is associated with unhealthy weight control practices and eating behaviors. We particularly found a significant association between weight overestimation and DEB among nationwide Korean adolescents.

Evaluation of Ultimate Strength Design Equations for Stress Calculation of Unbonded Tendons (비부착 긴장재의 응력산정을 위한 극한강도 설계식의 평가)

  • 임재형;문정호;이리형
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 1999
  • The present study is to investigate the possibility of overestimation or underestimation when the ACI Code equations are used to evaluate the unbonded tendon stress. An experimental program was planned with 6 beams which divided into two groups. Each group consisted of 3 beams to check the possibility of overestimation or underestimation of unbonded tendon stress. The experimental results were also compared with various design equations including the one proposed by Moon and Lim. It was proven that the ACI Code equations may overestimate or underestimate the unbonded tendon stress in certain cases.

A Simple Approach to Calculate CDF with Non-rare Events in Seismic PSA Model of Korean Nuclear Power Plants (국내 원자력발전소 지진 PSA의 CDF 과평가 방지를 위한 비희귀사건 모델링 방법 연구)

  • Lim, Hak Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.86-91
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    • 2021
  • Calculating the scrutable core damage frequency (CDF) of nuclear power plants is an important component of the seismic probabilistic safety assessment (SPSA). In this work, a simple approach is developed to calculate CDF from minimal cut sets (MCSs) with non-rare events. When conventional calculation methods based on rare event approximations are employed, the CDF of industry SPSA models is significantly overestimated by non-rare events in the MCSs. Recently, quantification algorithms using binary decision diagrams (BDDs) have been introduced to prevent CDF overestimation in the SPSA. However, BDD structures are generated from a small part of whole MCSs due to limited computational memory, and they cannot be reviewed due to their complicated logic structure. This study suggests a simple approach for scrutinizing the CDF calculation based on whole MCSs in the SPSA system analysis model. The proposed approach compares the new results to outputs from existing algorithms, which helps in avoiding CDF overestimation.

Physician Factors Associated with the Blood Pressure Control among Hypertensive Patients (진료를 받는 고혈압 환자의 혈압 조절과 관련된 의사 요인)

  • Kim, So-Young;Cho, In-Sook;Lee, Jae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Eun-Jung;Park, Jong-Hyock;Lee, Jin-Seok;Kim, Yoon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2007
  • Objectives : Little is known about the physician-related factors that are associated with the management of Hypertension. The purpose of this study was to determine the physician-related factors associated with blood pressure control in hypertensive patients. Methods : We surveyed 154 physicians at 117 public health (subhealth) centers in Gyeonggi-do, Forty-one physicians completed the survey (response rates : 26.6%) and 31 physicians were finally included as the study subjects. Using the information obtained from the self-reported survey, we measured the physician-related factors associated with hypertension control, including their perception of hypertension, prescription patterns (combination prescription rates, specific antihypertensives prescription rates among patients with diabetes mellitus), and sociodemographic factors. We then collected data on blood pressure and medication use in patients seen by these physicians from the health center#s information system. We compared the physicians# perceived hypertension control rates with the actual rates, and then evaluated the rate of high overestimation (overestimation by more than 25% of the median degree of hypertension control rate overestimation) among the physicians. The physicians# antihypertensive prescription patterns were also evaluated. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the independent association between hypertension control and physician-related factors. Results : The physicians tended to overestimate the proportion of their patients with controlled blood pressure (79.5% perceived vs. 57.8% actual). The percentage of physicians with high overestimation was 35.5% (11 physicians). The physicians with lower control rates were more likely to highly overestimate their patients# control rates. Physicians with below-median actual control rates tended to prescribe fewer combination treatments for patients with uncontrolled blood pressure and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or fewer angiotensin receptor blockers for patients with diabetes mellitus. The rate of high overestimation by physicians was 1.31 times higher in patients with uncontrolled blood pressure than in patients with other conditions (OR=1.31, 95% CI : 1.17-1.48). Conclusions : Physicians have a tendency to overestimate the rates of hypertension control in their patients. Because physicians have a direct role in treatment outcomes, physicians# overestimation about hypertension management contributes to inadequate blood pressure control. Thus, interventions for improving physician# awareness regarding the management of patients with hypertension are needed.

A New Quantification Method for Multi-Unit Probabilistic Safety Assessment (다수기 PSA 수행을 위한 새로운 정량화 방법)

  • Park, Seong Kyu;Jung, Woo Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this paper is to suggest a new quantification method for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that removes the overestimation error caused by the existing delete-term approximation (DTA) based quantification method. So far, for the actual plant PSA model quantification, a fault tree with negates have been solved by the DTA method. It is well known that the DTA method induces overestimated core damage frequency (CDF) of nuclear power plant (NPP). If a PSA fault tree has negates and non-rare events, the overestimation in CDF drastically increases. Since multi-unit seismic PSA model has plant level negates and many non-rare events in the fault tree, it should be very carefully quantified in order to avoid CDF overestimation. Multi-unit PSA fault tree has normal gates and negates that represent each NPP status. The NPP status means core damage or non-core damage state of individual NPPs. The non-core damage state of a NPP is modeled in the fault tree by using a negate (a NOT gate). Authors reviewed and compared (1) quantification methods that generate exact or approximate Boolean solutions from a fault tree, (2) DTA method generating approximate Boolean solution by solving negates in a fault tree, and (3) probability calculation methods from the Boolean solutions generated by exact quantification methods or DTA method. Based on the review and comparison, a new intersection removal by probability (IRBP) method is suggested in this study for the multi-unit PSA. If the IRBP method is adopted, multi-unit PSA fault tree can be quantified without the overestimation error that is caused by the direct application of DTA method. That is, the extremely overestimated CDF can be avoided and accurate CDF can be calculated by using the IRBP method. The accuracy of the IRBP method was validated by simple multi-unit PSA models. The necessity of the IRBP method was demonstrated by the actual plant multi-unit seismic PSA models.