• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.35 no.11
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• pp.983-989
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• 2007

The bird strike simulation is a problem characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. It deals with nonlinear dynamics, complicated models of bird materials and geometry, as well as a plenty of possible boundary and initial conditions. In this complex field, uncertainty management plays an important role. This paper aims to assess the effect of input uncertainty of bird strike analysis on the impact behavior of the leading edge of the WIG(Wing in Ground Effect) craft obtained with finite element analysis using LS-DYNA 3D. The uncertainties of the bird strike simulation arise due to imprecision or lack of information, due to variability or scatter, or as a consequence of model simplification. These uncertain parameters are represented by fuzzy numbers with their membership functions quantifying an initial guess for the actual value of the model parameter. Using the transformation method as a special implementation of fuzzy arithmetic, the model can be analyzed with the intention of determining the influence of each uncertain parameter on the overall bird strike behavior.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.1563-1570
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• 2023

In this study, a DeCART/MIG uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis code system with a multicorrelated cross section stochastic sampling (S.S.) module was established and verified through the UAM (Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling) and the BEAVRS (Benchmark for Evaluation And Validation of Reactor Simulations) benchmark calculations. For the S.S. calculations, a sample of 500 DeCART multigroup cross section sets for two major actinides, i.e., ²³⁵U and ²³⁸U, were generated by the MIG code and covariance data from the ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library. In the three pin problems (i.e. TMI-1, PB2, and Koz-6) from the UAM benchmark, the uncertainties in k_inf by the DeCART/MIG S.S. calculations agreed very well with the sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) perturbation results by DeCART/MUSAD and the S/U direct subtraction (S/U-DS) results by the DeCART/MIG. From these results, it was concluded that the multi-group cross section sampling module of the MIG code works correctly and accurately. In the BEAVRS whole benchmark problems, the uncertainties in the control rod bank worth, isothermal temperature coefficient, power distribution, and critical boron concentration due to cross section uncertainties were calculated by the DeCART/MIG code system. Overall, the uncertainties in these design parameters were less than the general design review criteria of a typical pressurized water reactor start-up case. This newly-developed DeCART/MIG UQ analysis code system by the S.S. method can be widely utilized as uncertainty analysis and margin estimation tools for developing and designing new advanced nuclear reactors.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.452-461
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• 2007

Adaptive anti-sway and trajectory tracking control of overhead crane is presented, which utilizes Fuzzy Uncertainty Observer(FUO) and Fuzzy based Variable Structure Control(FVSC). We consider an overhead crane system which can be decoupled into the actuated and unactuated subsystems with its own lumped uncertainty such as parameter uncertainties and external disturbance. First, a new method for anti-sway control using FVSC is proposed to improve the conventional method based on Lyapunov direct method, while a conventional trajectory tracking control law using feedback linearization is directly adopted. Second, FUO is designed to estimate one of the two lumped uncertainties which can compensate both of them, based on the fact that two lumped uncertainties are coupled with each other. Then, an adaptive anti-sway control is proposed by incorporating the proposed FVSC and FUO. Under the condition that the observation error is Uniformly Ultimately Bounded(UUB) within an arbitrarily shrinkable region, the overall closed-loop system is shown to be Globally Uniformly Ultimately Bounded(GUUB). In addition, the Global Asymptotic Stability(GAS) of it is shown under the vanishing disturbance assumption. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme has been confirmed by numerical simulations.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.323-338
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• 1994

This paper outlines a framework for performing intelligent sensor validation for a diagnostic expert system while reasoning under uncertainty. The emphasis is on the algorithmic preprocess technique. A companion paper focusses on heuristic post-processing. Sensor validation plays a vital role in the ability of the overall system to correctly detemine the state of a plant monitored by imperfect sensors. Especially, several theoretical developments were made in understanding uncertain sensory data in statistical aspect. Uncertain information in sensory values is represented through probability assignments on three discrete states, "high", "normal", and "low", and additional sensor confidence measures in Algorithmic Sv.Upper and lower warning limits are generated from the historical learning sets, which represents the borderlines for heat rate degradation generated in the Algorithmic SV initiates a historic data base for better reference in future use. All the information generated in the Algorithmic SV initiate a session to differentiate the sensor fault from the process fault and to make an inference on the system performance. This framework for a diagnostic expert system with sensor validation and reasonig under uncertainty applies in HEATXPRT$^{TM}$, a data-driven on-line expert system for diagnosing heat rate degradation problems in fossil power plants.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.507-521
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• 1996

Quantification of uncertainties in the source term estimations by a large computer code, such as MELCOR and MAAP, is an essential process of the current Probabilistic safety assessment. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the applicability of a combined procedure of the response surface method (RSM) based on input determined from a statistical design and the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique for the uncertainty analysis of CsI release fractions under a Hypothetical severe accident sequence of a station blackout at Younggwang nuclear power plant using MAAP3. OB code as a benchmark problem. On the basis of the results obtained in the present work, the RSM is recommended to be used as a principal tool for an overall uncertainty analysis in source term quantifications, while using the LHS in the calculations of standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and standardized rank regression coefficient (SRRC) to determine the subset of the most important input parameters in the final screening step and to check the cumulative distribution functions obtained by RSM. Verification of the response surface model for its sufficient accuracy is a prerequisite for the reliability of the final results that can be obtained by the combined procedure proposed in the present work.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.95-111
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• 2014

It is essential to carry out an economic analysis on public water supply projects so that policy makers and water enterprises are aware of the actual value of the project. However, many popular approaches based on discounted cash flow analysis do not capture the uncertainties inherent in cash flow. In order to analyze the economic values of the water supply project of local governments, we utilize real option model, which considers uncertainty in future water price behavior and captures the value of real life flexibility. The real option model is designed to incorporate the option to expand and abandon, and it is applied to a local government case. Furthermore, we assess the project by exploring Luehrman's option space to accommodate the more efficient decision making. The results show that substantial amount of potential value is included in the public water supply service, and the overall value is greater than the value obtained from the discounted cash flow model.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.47-57
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• 2018

This study implemented the rainfall-runoff analysis of the Mekong River basin using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The runoff analysis was simulated for 2000~2007, and 11 parameters were calibrated using the SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-version 2) algorithm of SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program). As a result of analyzing optimal parameters and sensitivity analysis for 6 cases, the parameter ALPHA_BF was found to be the most sensitive. The reproducibility of the rainfall-runoff results decreased with increasing number of stations used for parameter calibration. The rainfall-runoff simulation results of Case 6 showed that the RMSE of Nong Khai and Kratie stations were 0.97 and 0.9, respectively, and the runoff patterns were relatively accurately simulated. The runoff patterns of Mukdahan and Khong Chaim stations were underestimated during the flood season from 2004 to 2005 but it was acceptable in terms of the overall runoff pattern. These results suggest that the combination of SWAT and SWAT-CUP models is applicable to very large watersheds such as the Mekong for rainfall-runoff simulation, but further studies are needed to reduce the range of modeling uncertainty.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.17 no.4 s.107
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• pp.387-392
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• 2006

In this paper, measurement scheme and uncertainty estimation of the K-band attenuation standard fitted with 3.5 mm coaxial connectors are described. The standard comprises a build-up chain of four steps of power ratio mea-surement and operates in the frequency range of 18 GHz to 26.5 GHz. The nominal attenuation of each step is around 20 dB and total dynamic range is 80 dB. The expanded uncertainty of the overall system is 0.01 dB at the confidence level of approximately 95%.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.355-361
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• 2023

Temperature of the Earth's surface is a crucial physical variable in understanding weather and atmospheric dynamics and in coping with extreme heat events that have a great impact on living organismsincluding humans. Thermalsensors on satellites have been a useful meansfor acquiring surface temperature information for wide areas on the globe, and thus characterization of its estimation uncertainty is of central importance for the utilization of the data. Among various factors that affect the estimation, the uncertainty caused by the algorithm itself has not been tested for the atmospheric environment of Korean vicinity. Thisstudy derivesthe uncertainty of the single-channel algorithm under the local atmospheric and oceanic conditions by using reanalysis data and buoy temperature data collected around Korea. Atmospheric profiles were retrieved from two types of reanalysis data, the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis of the global climate and weather (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2) to investigate the effect of reanalysis data. MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) was used as a radiative transfer code for simulating top of atmosphere radiance and the atmospheric correction for the temperature estimation. Water temperatures used for MODTRAN simulations and uncertainty estimation for the single-channel algorithm were obtained from marine weather buoyslocated in seas around the Korean Peninsula. Experiment results showed that the uncertainty of the algorithm varies by the water vapor contents in the atmosphere and is around 0.35K in the driest atmosphere and 0.46K in overall, regardless of the reanalysis data type. The uncertainty increased roughly in a linear manner as total precipitable water increased.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.319-339
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• 1997

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the winner's curse in the context of corporate takeovers. The study analyzes conditions which make overpayment likely. For a sample of corporate takeovers completed between 1982 and 1993, the analysis shows that the volatility of targets relative to that of acquirers (not the uncertainty of the target or acquirer alone) has a definitive impact on the magnitude of the winner's curse. Also, the incidence is more pronounced in multiple-bidder than in single-bidder contests. Specifically, white knights are more likely to overpay than other acquirers in multiple bidding situations. Furthermore, the study finds that the process of competitive bidding is a zero sum game since the greater returns to the shareholders of target firms in multiple-bid contests come at the expense of the acquiring companies, Overall, the evidence suggests that the bidders need to become more conservative, particularly as the relative uncertainty of the target's 'true' value and the number of bidders increase.