• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.10
• /
• pp.73-79
• /
• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.40 no.1
• /
• pp.153-172
• /
• 2009

Developing foreign fishing ground executed in various uncertainty such as fishing price, oil price, exchange rate. But traditional economic evaluation method, CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis doesn't consider uncertainty of foreign fishing ground. So we need new approach about economic evaluation that can take into account uncertainty. This study focus on the economic evaluation about experimental survey of tuna fishing grounds in the north pacific ocean by sensitive analysis and simulation. The results of the economic evaluation can be summarized as follows. First, when we take it for granted that the other uncertainty factors except for each fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are constant. CVP gross sales has positive relation to the increasing rate of oil price, exchange rate(W/$) and negative relation to the increasing rate of fishing price and exchange rate(W/${\yen}$). Second, when we are supposing that fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are followed. the probability of less than CVP gross sales is A ship(48.87%), B ship(49.64%), C ship(50.55%). Consequently, the economic evaluation by sensitive analysis and simulation is more useful tool than CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis under uncertainty.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.145-170
• /
• 2020

This study analyzes the dependence structure between energy (crude oil, natural gas, coal) prices and economic (real and financial) uncertainty. Summary of the results of the dependence structure between energy prices and economic uncertainty analysis is as follows. First, the results of model selection show that the BB7 copula model for the pair of crude oil price and economic uncertainty, the Joe copula model for the pair of natural gas price and economic uncertainty, and the Clayton copula model for the pair of coal price and economic uncertainty were chosen. Second, looking at the dependency structure, it showed that the pair of energy (crude oil, natural gas, coal) prices and real market uncertainty show positive dependence. Whereas, the only pair of financial market uncertainty-crude oil price shows positive dependency. In particular, crude oil price was found to have the greatest dependence on economic uncertainty. Third, looking at the results of tail dependency, the pair of real market uncertainty-crude oil price and pair of real market uncertainty-natural gas price have an asymmetric relationship with the upper tail dependency. It can be seen that the only pair of financial market uncertainty-crude oil represents asymmetric relationships with the upper tail dependencies. In other words, combinations with asymmetric relationships have shown strong dependence when negative extreme events occur. On the other hand, tail dependence between economic uncertainty and coal price be not found.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.351-364
• /
• 2023

Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.43 no.6
• /
• pp.462-468
• /
• 2019

Offshore oil production faces several difficulties caused by oil price decline and unexpected changes in the global petroleum logistics. This paper suggests a stochastic model for optimizing the offshore oil production under uncertainty. The proposed model incorporates robust optimization and restricted recourse framework, and uses the lower partial mean as the measure of variability of the recourse profit. Some computational experiments and results based on the proposed model using scenario-based data on the crude oil price and demand under uncertainty are examined and presented. This study would be meaningful in decision-making for the offshore oil production problem considering risks under uncertainty.

• Management & Information Systems Review
• /
• v.38 no.3
• /
• pp.1-19
• /
• 2019

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of crude oil price uncertainty on industrial stock returns under different market conditions (bearish and bullish stock markets). We consider a quantile regression method using monthly oil volatility index, KOSPI and 22 industrial stock indices from May 2007 to February 2019. Especially, we take care of the positive and negative changes of the oil volatility index to analyze asymmetric effects of the oil price uncertainty for the bearish and bullish stock market conditions. During the bearish markets, the oil volatility index has relatively strong statistically significant negative effects on the industrial stock returns. These effects gradually decrease when the market conditions became more bullish markets. In particular, positive changes in the oil volatility index yields a further significant decrease in 12 industrial stock returns during the extreme bearish markets. Moreover, during the bullish markets, negative changes in the oil volatility index have statistically significant negative effects on the 12 industrial stock returns. From the empirical results, we see that participants of the Korean stock market are sensitive to bad news in a recession.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.753-773
• /
• 2005

This paper is a study of the investment dynamics focusing on crude oil supply by OPEC and non-OPEC. Oil supply capacity is first determined by a leader, OPEC, and by an aggregate that represents non-OPEC producers. OPEC wants to increase a gain from oil price increase while keeping its market share relative to non-OPEC's share. An investment rule model is developed for OPEC crude oil supply capacity in response to non-OPEC's decision. In presence of oil price uncertainty, oil price threshold is derived above which it is optimal for OPEC to expand oil supply capacity since otherwise the increased supply of non-OPEC results in weakening of OPEC market share in the world oil market. In addition, a lower threshold price is derived below which OPEC triggers a capacity reduction to regain its otherwise forgone profits. A simulation is provided for calculating the capacity expansion and reduction thresholds.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.262-268
• /
• 2020

The IMO (International Maritime Organization) has mandated the restriction of SOx emissions to 0.5 % for all international sailing vessels since January 2020. And, a number of countries have designated emission control areas for stricter environmental regulations. Three representative methods have been suggested to cope with these regulations; using low-sulphur oil, installing a scrubber, or using LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) as fuel. In this paper, economic analysis was performed by comparing the method of installing a scrubber with the method of using low-sulphur oil without installing additional equipment. We suggested plausible layouts and compared the pros and cons of dif erent scrubber types for retrofitting. We selected an international sailing ship as the target vessel and estimated payback time and benefits based on navigation route, fuel consumption, and installation and operation costs. Two case of oil prices were analyzed considering the uncertainty of fuel oil price fluctuation. We found that the expected payback time of investment varies from 1 year to 3.5 years depending on the operation ratio of emission control areas and the fuel oil price change.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.87-106
• /
• 2022

Uncertainties in the energy market are increasing due to technology developments (shale revolution), trade wars, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Especially, since 2020, the risk of international trade in the energy market has increased significantly due to changes in the supply chain of transportation and due to prolonged demand reduction because of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war. Considering these points, this study analyzed connectedness between energy price, tanker index, and uncertainty to understand the connectedness between international trade in the energy market. Main results are summarized as follows. First, as a result of analyzing stable period and unstable period of the energy price model using the MS-VAR model, it was confirmed that both the crude oil market model and the natural gas market model had a higher probability of maintaining stable period than unstable period, increasing volatility by specific events. Second, looking at the results of the analysis of the connectedness between stable period and unstable period of the energy market, it was confirmed that in the case of total connectedness, connectedness between variables was increased in the unstable period compared to the stable period. In the case of the energy market stable period, considering the degree of connectedness, it was confirmed that the effect of the tanker freight index, which represents the demand-side factor, was significant. Third, unstable period of the natural gas market model increases rapidly compared to the crude oil market model, indicating that the volatility spillover effect of the natural gas market is greater when uncertainties affecting energy prices increase compared to the crude oil market.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.441-464
• /
• 2012

As prices of energy resources such as oil and gas started to rise steadily in 2000, energy security has been one of the most important topics in the world. To secure more energy, most of countries which are highly dependent on imported energy resources try to occupy oversea oil or gas reserves, thereby intensifying competition for energy resources around world. Under this circumstance, we focus on independent E&P companies since they are relatively small size companies which are suitable for M&A. We analyze investment option values for these E&P companies using a real option model for depletable resources. Based on analytical model, empirical study is provided to examine rationality of investment for energy companies. The result shows sufficient profitability for independent E&P companies in both oil and gas projects in the North America during 2004 to 2008. In Particular, oil projects were more feasible than gas project due to lower price of gas and high volatility of gas price at that time.