• 토지주택연구
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.33-46
• /
• 2020

As the fastest growing office transaction volume in Korea, there's been a need for development of indicators to accurately diagnose the office capital market. The purpose of this paper is experimentally calculate to the office price index for effective benchmark indices in Seoul. The quantitative methodology used a Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Model (1991), based on actual multiple office transaction dataset with over minimum 1,653 ㎡ from Q3 1999 to 4Q 2019 in the case of 1,536 buildings within Seoul Metropolitan. In addition, the collected historical data and spatial statistical analysis tools were treated with the SAS 9.4 and ArcGIS 10.7 programs. The main empirical results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, Seoul office price index was estimated to be 344.3 point (2001.1Q=100.0P) at the end of 2019, and has more than tripled over the past two decades. it means that the sales price of office per 3.3 ㎡ has consistently risen more than 12% every year since 2000, which is far above the indices for apartment housing index, announced by the MOLIT (2009). Second, between quarterly and annual office price index for the two-step estimation of the MIT Real Estate Research Center (MIT/CRE), T, L, AL variables have statistically significant coefficient (Beta) all of the mode l (p<0.01). Third, it was possible to produce a more stable office price index against the basic index by using the Moore-Penrose's pseoudo inverse technique at low transaction frequency. Fourth, as an lagging indicators, the office price index is closely related to key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP(+), KOSPI(+), interest rates (5-year KTB, -). This facts indicate that long-term office investment tends to outperform other financial assets owing to high return and low risk pattern. In conclusion, these findings are practically meaningful to presenting an new office price index that increases accuracy and then attempting to preliminary applications for the case of Seoul. Moreover, it can provide sincerely useful benchmark about investing an office and predicting changes of the sales price among market participants (e.g. policy maker, investor, landlord, tenant, user) in the future.

• 지역연구
• /
• 제34권1호
• /
• pp.3-17
• /
• 2018

본 논문은 임대료시장의 주기변화에 따른 헤도닉 모형의 임대료 결정요인의 영향력 변화를 분석하였다. 임대료지수를 구축하여 분석한 결과 금융위기가 전환점이 되어 서울시 임대료 시장이 하락기와 상승기로 구분됨을 밝혔으며 주기에 따른 헤도닉 모형의 특성변수의 회귀모수 변화를 고찰하였다. 분석은 강남오피스와 도심오피스로 구분하여 실시하였으며 권역에 상관없이 일관된 변화를 보인 개별회귀모수로서는 토지가격, 지하철역에서의 거리, 건물규모, 건물연한 및 전환이율로 밝혀졌다. 상승기에는 건물의 규모가 클수록 임대료가 높아지는 경향이 있으며 건물이 오래될수록 임대료 하락요인으로의 영향이 커지는 경향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 전환이율 역시 임대료에서 차지하는 비중이 상승기에 높아짐을 보여준다. 토지가격의 영향은 줄어들고 교통편의성의 장점은 약해지고 있어 상승기에는 지리적 이점의 영향력이 감소하고 건물 특성의 영향력이 상대적으로 커지는 실증적 증거를 제시하였다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권8호
• /
• pp.197-204
• /
• 2020

Nowadays, many construction engineering and technology enterprises are evolving to find that prosperity is driven and inspired by an open economy with dynamic markets and fierce multifaceted competition. Besides brand and product uniqueness, the ability to quickly provide customers with quotes are matters of concern. Such a requirement for prompt cost estimation of construction investment projects with the use of a construction price index poses a significant challenge to contractors. This is because the nature of the construction industry is shaped by changes in domestic and foreign economic factors, socio-financial issues, and is under the influence of various micro and macro factors. This paper presents a fuzzy decision-making approach for calculating critical factors that affect the construction price index. A qualitative approach was implemented based on in-depth interviews of experts in the construction industry in Vietnam. A synthetic comparison matrix was calculated using Buckley approach. The CoA approach was applied to defuzzified the fuzzy weights of factors that affect the construction price index. The research results show that the top five critical factors affecting the construction price index in Vietnam are (1) consumer price index, (2) gross domestic product, (3) basic interest rate, (4) foreign exchange rate, and (5) total export and import.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.195-200
• /
• 2021

In recent years, Vietnam's economic growth rate has been attributed to the growth of many well-managed industries within Southeast Asia. Among them is the civil construction industry. Construction projects typically take a long time to complete and require a huge budget. Many socio-economic variables and factors affect total construction project costs due to market fluctuations. In recent years, crucial socioeconomic development indicators of construction reached a fairly high growth rate. Also, most infrastructure and construction projects have a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. This makes it challenging to predict the accurate project price. These challenges raise the need to recognize significant factors that influence the construction price index of civil buildings in Vietnam, both micro and macro. Therefore, this paper presents critical factors that affect the construction price index using the fuzzy extent analysis process in an uncertain environment. This proposed quantitative model is expected to reflect the uncertainty in the process of evaluating and ranking the influencing factors of the construction price index in Vietnam. The research results would also allow project stakeholders to be more informed of the factors affecting the construction price index in the context of Vietnam's civil construction industry. They also enable construction contractors to estimate project costs and bid rates better, enhancing their project and risk management performance.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제11권5호
• /
• pp.41-52
• /
• 2010

리츠는 주식시장에 상장되어 있으면서 부동산 개발을 위한 자금조달의 성격과 부동산에 투자하는 특징도 있으므로, 주식 시장과 건설 및 부동산시장과 관계가 있을 것으로 예상할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 리츠와 주식시장, 건설 및 부동산 경기와 관계된 지표들을 시계열 분석하여, 리츠와의 영향관계를 분석하였다. 시계열 분석은 백터자기회귀모형과 백터오차수정모형을 사용하였으며, 다음의 세 부분으로 분류하여 분석하였다. 첫째, 리츠와 건설 코스피 지수와의 관계를 분석한 결과, 건설 코스피 지수가 리츠에 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 리츠와 건설경기 동행지수인 건축착공면적, 부동산 경기 지수인 오피스 임대지수와 주택매매가격지수와의 관계를 분석하였다. 각 지표들은 서로 인과관계는 없는 것으로 분석되었지만, 리츠와 주택매매가격지수는 서로에게 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 리츠와 건설경기 선행지수인 건축허가면적의 관계를 분석하였다. 두 지표는 서로 인과관계가 없는 것으로 분석되었지만, 건축허가면적이 리츠에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구를 통해 리츠는 주식시장과 주택경기, 건설경기 선행지표인 건축허가 면적에 영향을 받지만, 건설경기 동행지표인 건축착공면적과 오피스 임대지수에는 상대적으로 영향을 작게 받는 것으로 분석되었다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
• /
• pp.1115-1117
• /
• 2003

The information about transactions of real estate has tended to be not open. Therefore, it has been difficult for individuals to judge the proper price of each real estate. In the course of time several studies have been conducted on proposing criterions for judging the proper price of real estates. As to office buildings and apartments, it is proved techniques required for making criterions have been achieved to a certain extent. Therefore, this research aims to make methods that propose to consumers reliable criteria for judging the proper price of detached houses. The methods are based on hedonic price method and micro-level spatial elements peculiar to detached houses are considered.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권9호
• /
• pp.263-269
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of consumer price index, infrastructure, human resources, trade openness, and private credit on the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Tay Ninh province as well as to emphasize the important role of FDI in economic growth of developing areas. The research data was collected from Tay Ninh Statistical Office with 80 samples of a 20-year period from 2000 to 2019. Also, OLS regression method using Eviews software was employed to analyze the data obtained. The findings revealed that human resources, infrastructure and private credit have a positive and significant impact on FDI attraction in Tay Ninh province, while consumer price index was proven to affect FDI attraction negatively. Accordingly, competent authorities of Tay Ninh province should focus on stabilizing prices as well as implementing policies for developing local human resources and attracting high-quality personnel from foreign countries. Tay Ninh province also needs to pay more attention to information technology investment for synchronous development of infrastructure. Moreover, the State Bank of Tay Ninh branch needs to consider more credit sources to provide support packages for businesses, creating a strong basis for establishments to attract FDI for the province's economic development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제6권3호
• /
• pp.163-172
• /
• 2019

The paper aims to investigate the impact of the gap between domestic and international gold price on money demand in Vietnam, an emerging economy in the Asian region. We use a quarterly database collected from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2016. The time-series database includes 52 observations. The money demand is represented by M2; Domestic income is the Gross domestic product at the constant prices of 1994; Inflation rate is calculated by the Customer Price Index from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The result confirms the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the money demand and the gap between domestic and international gold price as well as some variables including domestic income, inflation, and real exchange rate. The regression results also show that the gap between domestic and international gold price has a positive impact on money demand in the Vietnamese economy. Besides, the domestic income and international gold price have positive impacts on money demand while the inflation and real exchange rate are negatively related in the long run. This proves that the gap between the domestic and international gold price really has a positive impact on money demand in Vietnam during the study period.

• 한국지역지리학회지
• /
• 제14권5호
• /
• pp.553-572
• /
• 2008

1990년대 중반 국제금융위기를 계기로 경제협력개발기구, 국제통화기금, 유럽연합통계국 등 국제기구와 개별국가의 통계작성기관에서 통계품질관리 운동이 활발하게 전개되고 있다. 한국에서도 2006년부터 정부승인통계에 대한 품질상태를 정밀 진단하는 국가통계품질 제고일정을 추진하고 있다. 통계품질에 대한 이러한 움직임은 전사적 통계품질 관리 접근에 입각하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 정확성, 시의성 / 정시성, 관련성 접근성 / 편의성, 비교성 / 일관성, 서비스성 / 해석성, 효율성이라는 품질평가 차원을 중심으로 통계작성환경, 작성절차의 적합성, 현장조사의 정확성, 공표자료의 충실성, 이용자 만족도, 품질개선노력 등 5개 부문에 걸쳐 평가하는 통계청 품질관리 시스템에 근거하여 지가변동률 통계를 대상으로 전사적 품질관리 접근에 의한 통계품질을 평가한다.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한안전경영과학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.305-308
• /
• 2009

According to the returns of Housing and business cycle over the period 1992 to 2007, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in Housing properties. First, it isn't a distinct difference from business cycle contrary to U.S. Second, the rise of purchase price in total apartments moves up the consumer price index. According to the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk.