• 대기
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.295-309
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• 2019

Due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather, the need to improve the accuracy of subseasonal prediction has increased. Here we analyze the performance of weekly predictions out to 6 weeks by GloSea5 climate model. The performance in circulation field from January 1991 to December 2010 is first analyzed at each grid point using the 500-hPa geopotential height. The anomaly correlation coefficient and mean-square skill score, calculated each week against the ECWMF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, illustrate better prediction skills regionally in the tropics and over the ocean and seasonally during winter. Secondly, we evaluate the predictability of 7 major teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Scandinavia (SCAND), Polar/Eurasia (PE), West Pacific (WP), Pacific-North American (PNA). Skillful predictability of the patterns turns out to be approximately 1~2 weeks. During summer, the EAWR and SCAND, which exhibit a wave pattern propagating over Eurasia, show a considerably lower skill than the other 5 patterns, while in winter, the WP and PNA, occurring in the Pacific region, maintain the skill up to 2 weeks. To account for the model's bias in reproducing the teleconnection patterns, we measure the similarity between the teleconnection patterns obtained in each lead time. In January, the model's teleconnection pattern remains similar until lead time 3, while a sharp decrease of similarity can be seen from lead time 2 in July.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.687-694
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• 2006

북서태평양의 바람 변동이 1970년대 이후에 나타난 ENSO의 십년 주기 변화에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다. SODA 자료를 이용한 SVD 분석을 통하여 ENSO 절정기에 북서태평양에서 나타나는 양의 바람 응력 컬이 적도 지역에서의 열함유량을 방출/재충전(discharge/recharge)시켜 ENSO의 위상을 변화시킨다는 것을 보였다. ENSO와 연관된 북서태평양의 바람 응력 컬은 1970년대 이전에 강하게 나타났다. 이러한 강한 바람 응력 강제력은 적도의 열함유량을 빠르게 방출시켰고, 결과로서 1960-1970년대 기간 동안에 ENSO의 주기가 짧고 강도가 악하게 나타났다 반면에 1970년대 후반 이후에는 북서태평양 바람 응력의 컬이 약해지면서 ENSO의 주기가 길어지고 강도가 강해졌다. 간단한 대기-해양 접합 모델 실험으로 관측 자료 분석 결과와 유사하게 북서태평양 지역에서 바람 응력 컬이 더 많이 해양에 작용할 때 ENSO의 진폭과 주기가 감소하는 것을 보였다. 이 결과들은 1970년대 후반 이후에 나타난 ENSO특징의 변화가 북서태평양 지역에서의 바람 응력의 변화와 관련이 있다는 것을 제시한다.

• 대기
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.97-106
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• 2024

The seasonal forecast skill of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northern Hemisphere from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 6 (GloSea6) hindcast has been verified for the period 1993 to 2016. The operational climate prediction system at KMA was upgraded from GloSea5 to GloSea6 in 2022, therefore further validation was warranted for the seasonal predictability and variability of this new system for TC forecasts. In this study, we examine the frequency, track density, duration, and strength of TCs in the North Indian Ocean, the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific, and the North Atlantic against the best track data. This methodology follows a previous study covering the period 1996 to 2009 published in 2020. GloSea6 indicates a higher frequency of TC generation compared to observations in the western North Pacific and the eastern North Pacific, suggesting the possibility of more TC generation than GloSea5. Additionally, GloSea6 exhibits better interannual variability of TC frequency, which shows relatively good correlation with observations in the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific. Regarding TC intensity, GloSea6 still underestimates the minimum surface pressures and maximum wind speeds from TCs, as is common among most climate models due to lower horizontal resolutions. However, GloSea6 is likely capable of simulating slightly stronger TCs than GloSea5, partly attributed to more frequent 6-hourly outputs compared to the previous daily outputs.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제39권6호
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• pp.604-608
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 다심관(Multi Core Tube)에 단열재로 글라스울(Glass wool)을 사용한 단열 다심관(Insulated Multi Core Tube)의 열전달 특성에 관하여 검토하였다. 제작된 단열 다심관에 대하여 외기온도, 유압 오일 공급온도, 유압 오일 공급유량에 따른 단열 다심관 내부의 유압 오일의 온도특성에 관하여 실험 및 모델링을 통하여 검토하였다. 그 결과 본 연구의 범위 내에서 최소 유압 오일 공급유량인 0.29(l/min)인 경우 실험결과와 수치해석 결과의 온도차이가 최대 약 $3^{\circ}C$정도 발생하였다. 외기온도가 일정한 경우 유압 오일 공급온도가 높을수록 유압 오일의 공급유량에 관계없이 유압 오일 출구온도가 높아지고, 유압 오일 공급유량이 1.01(l/min)이상일 경우에는 유압 오일의 온도강하에 외기온도의 영향이 적음을 알 수 있었다.

• 대기
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2018

This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

• 대기
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.293-309
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• 2020

There are lots of indices that define the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in climate systems. This paper assesses the prediction skill for EASM indices in a Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) that is currently operating at KMA. Total 5 different types of EASM indices (WNPMI, EAMI, WYI, GUOI, and SAHI) are selected to investigate how well GloSea5 reproduces them using hindcasts with 12 ensemble members with 1~3 lead months. Each index from GloSea5 is compared to that from ERA-Interim. Hindcast results for the period 1991~2010 show the highest prediction skill for WNPMI which is defined as the difference between the zonal winds at 850 hPa over East China Sea and South China Sea. WYI, defined as the difference between the zonal winds of upper and lower level over the Indian Ocean far from East Asia, is comparatively well captured by GloSea5. Though the prediction skill for EAMI which is defined by using meridional winds over areas of East Asia and Korea directly affected by EASM is comparatively low, it seems that EAMI is useful for predicting the variability of precipitation by EASM over East Asia. The regressed atmospheric fields with EASM index and the correlation with precipitation also show that GloSea5 best predicts the synoptic environment of East Asia for WNPMI among 5 EASM indices. Note that the result in this study is limited to interpret only for GloSea5 since the prediction skill for EASM index depends greatly on climate forecast model systems.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.113-126
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• 2009

Terra와 Aqua 위성에서 촬영되는 MODIS 영상은 매일 수신되는 중해상도 영상으로써 광범위한 지역에 대한 모니터링을 하는데 여러가지 장점을 제공한다. 특히, MODIS 영상은 신뢰성 있는 알고리즘을 적용하여 만들어진 대기/해양/육상 관련한 여러 가지 영상(products)들을 함께 제공함으로써 사용자가 데이터를 확보하여 바로 사용할 수 있는 장점을 가지고 있다. 또한 북한이라는 제도적으로 제약이 따르는 지역을 포함하는 한반도의 경우, 활용상의 제약이 따르지 않는 점이 중해상도급 MODIS 영상의 큰 장점이라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 기존의 시계열 모니터링에서 주로 식생지수를 모니터링하는 방법과는 달리, 대기 보정을 거쳐 대기의 효과를 제거한 250m급 MODIS 반사율 영상을 이용하여 시계열로 변화되는 반사율을 대상으로 하였다. 2004년에서 2008년까지 5년 동안의 각 토지 피복이 보이는 반사율 패턴과 함께, 토지 피복이 변화된 지역에서 관찰되는 반사율의 변화를 살펴보았다. 7개의 토지 피복별 근적외선, 적색광 반사율과 NDVI의 시계열 자료에서 토지 피복과 계절적 영향이 근적외선 반사율에서 가장 민감하게 반영되고 있는 것을 알 수 있다. 토지 피복에 따른 반사율 패턴은 토지 피복 분류 및 변화된 지역을 탐지하는데 기본적으로 이용될 가능성을 제시한다.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.216-222
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• 2021

COVID-19 펜데믹 상황으로 인해 비군사·초국경적으로 발생하는 비전통적 안보위협에 대한 국가적 관심은 더욱 높아지고 있다. COVID-19로부터 발생한 국가적 피해 규모와 강도가 상상을 초월하기 때문이다. 이와 관련하여 육군은 다양한 집단지성 플랫폼을 통해 미래 한반도에서 발생할 수 있는 비전통적 안보위협을 예측하는 노력을 강구하고 있다. 향후 기후변화, 4차 산업혁명 도래에 따른 사회변화 및 기술발전으로 인해 비전통적 안보위협은 다양화될 것이다. 특히, 도시화율, 인터넷 보급률 및 대륙과 해양의 대기가 충돌하는 지리적 위치 등을 고려했을 때 우리나라에 가해질 비전통적 안보위협은 다른 나라의 경우보다 더욱 치명적일 것이다. 따라서 범정부 차원에서 민·관·군·산·학·연의 집단지성 플랫폼을 활용하여 비전통적 안보위협을 예측하는 것이 무엇보다도 중요할 것이다.

• 대기
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.39-48
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• 2014

This study provides a comparative analysis of cloud top heights observed by a Ka-band cloud radar and the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) at Boseong National Center for Intensive Observation of severe weather (NCIO) from May 25, 2013 (1600 UTC) to May 27. The rainfall duration is defined as the period of rainfall from start to finish, and the no rainfall duration is defined as the period other than the rainfall duration. As a result of the comparative analysis, the cloud top heights observed by the cloud radar have been estimated to be lower than that observed by the COMS for the rainfall duration due to the signal attenuation caused by raindrops. The stronger rainfall intensity gets, the more the difference grows. On the other hand, the cloud top heights observed by the cloud radar have been relatively similar to that observed by the COMS for the no rainfall duration. In this case, the cloud radar can effectively detect cloud top heights within the range of its observation. The COMS indicates the cloud top heights lower than the actual ones due to the upper thin clouds under the influence of ground surface temperature. As a result, the cloud radar can be useful in detecting cloud top heights when there are no precipitation events. The COMS data can be used to correct the cloud top heights when the radar gets beyond the valid range of observation or there are precipitation events.

• 대기
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.465-472
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• 2012

Using various observed data, we examined the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during 2011-2012, with focusing on the development of 2012 El Ni$\tilde{n}$o. It is observed that a La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event during 2011 was followed by a moderate El Ni$\tilde{n}$o during 2012 summer. The 2012 summer El Ni$\tilde{n}$o initiated near the west coast of South America on February 2012, and continued to expand westward till August. Given this evolutionary pattern, the 2012 summer El Ni$\tilde{n}$o can be categorized as 'Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o' because Ni$\tilde{n}$o-3 index is greater than Ni$\tilde{n}$o-4 index, and it may be the first well-defined EP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o since 2001. On February 2012, this event was initiated mainly by the local air-sea interaction, and at the same time the ocean heat content was accumulated over the tropical western Pacific due to the easterly wind anomaly over the tropical western Pacific. Then, the accumulated heat content slowly propagates to the tropical eastern Pacific, which attributes to maintain El Ni$\tilde{n}$o state during 2012 summer. After August, the positive SST anomaly over the equatorial eastern Pacific decays possibly due to the exhausted heat content and the weakening of air-sea interaction, but the weak positive SST anomaly over the central Pacific remains till now (2012 November).