• 제목/요약/키워드: Observation-error model

검색결과 256건 처리시간 0.03초

기후변화에 따른 벚꽃 개화일의 시공간 변이 (Climate Change Impact on the Flowering Season of Japanese Cherry (Prunus serrulata var. spontanea) in Korea during 1941-2100)

  • 윤진일
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.68-76
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    • 2006
  • A thermal time-based two-step phenological model was used to project flowering dates of Japanese cherry in South Korea from 1941 to 2100. The model consists of two sequential periods: the rest period described by chilling requirement and the forcing period described by heating requirement. Daily maximum and minimum temperature are used to calculate daily chill units until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, daily heat units (growing degree days) are accumulated until a pre-determined heating requirement for flowering is achieved. Model calculations using daily temperature data at 18 synoptic stations during 1955-2004 were compared with the observed blooming dates and resulted in 3.9 days mean absolute error, 5.1 days root mean squared error, and a correlation coefficient of 0.86. Considering that the phonology observation has never been fully standardized in Korea, this result seems reasonable. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270 m grid spacing were prepared for the climatological years 1941-1970 and 1971-2000 from observations at 56 synoptic stations by using a spatial interpolation scheme for correcting urban heat island effect as well as elevation effect. A 25km-resolution temperature data set covering the Korean Peninsula, prepared by the Meteorological Research Institute of Korea Meteorological Administration under the condition of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2, was converted to 270 m gridded data for the climatological years 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The model was run by the gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets, each representing a climatological normal year for 1941-1970, 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. According to the model calculation, the spatially averaged flowering date for the 1971-2000 normal is shorter than that for 1941-1970 by 5.2 days. Compared with the current normal (1971-2000), flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be earlier by 9, 21, and 29 days in the future normal years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively. Southern coastal areas might experience springs with incomplete or even no Japanese cherry flowering caused by insufficient chilling for breaking bud dormancy.

네트워크 분석방식 선택에 따른 복잡계 모형과 공간구문론의 상호검증 (Mutual Verification of an Analytic Model of a Complex System and Space Syntax Using Network Analyses)

  • 김석태;윤소희
    • 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2017
  • A social phenomenon that occurs in a physical space is said to be a complex system. However, space syntax, which is commonly employed by researchers to identify such social phenomena, has various limitations in interpreting their complexity. On the other hand, agent-based modeling considers a variety of factors including the personality of the agent, objective-oriented work flows, estimation according to time flows and better prediction of space use through diverse parameters depending the situation, as well as the characteristics of the space. The agent-based method thus has the potentials to be developed as an alternative to space syntax techniques. In particular, discrete event driven simulation(DEVS), which is part of the agent-based modeling method, embraces the concept of networks just like space syntax, which allows a possible theoretical linkage in the future. This study suggests a procedural model of agent-based DEVS reflecting two different connection methods, i.e. connections between adjacent areas and those of the entire space, and attempts to identify the relationship between the local and regional indices of space syntax. A number of spaces were selected as examples-one for a preliminary experiment and eight modified for the main experiment-and space syntax and DEVS were applied to each of them. The comparative analysis of the results led to the conclusions as follows: 1) Adjacent connections were closely related to local indices, while the whole-space approach to regional indices. Local integration shows both characteristics. 2) Observation of the time flow model indicated a faster convergence with the range of 1 to 3-fold of the total time of one lap, with the error of less than 10%. 3) The heat map analysis showed more obvious characteristics of using the space for the entire space rather than adjacent connections. 4) Space syntax shows higher eligibility than ABM.

The observation of permeation grouting method as soil improvement technique with different grout flow models

  • Celik, Fatih
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.367-374
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    • 2019
  • This study concluded the results of a research on the features of cement based permeation grout, based on some important grout parameters, such as the rheological properties (yield stress and viscosity), coefficient of permeability to grout ($k_G$) and the inject ability of cement grout (N and $N_c$ assessment), which govern the performance of cement based permeation grouting in porous media. Due to the limited knowledge of these important grout parameters and other influencing factors (filtration pressure, rate and time of injection and the grout volume) used in the field work, the application of cement based permeation grouting is still largely a trial and error process in the current practice, especially in the local construction industry. It is seen possible to use simple formulas in order to select the injection parameters and to evaluate their inter-relationship, as well as to optimize injection spacing and times with respect to injection source dimensions and in-situ permeability. The validity of spherical and cylindrical flow model was not verified by any past research works covered in the literature review. Therefore, a theoretical investigation including grout flow models and significant grout parameters for the design of permeation grouting was conducted in this study. This two grout flow models were applied for three grout mixes prepared for w/c=0.75, w/c=1.00 and w/c=1.25 in this study. The relations between injection times, radius, pump pressure and flow rate for both flow models were investigated and the results were presented. Furthermore, in order to investigate these two flow model, some rheological properties of the grout mixes, particle size distribution of the cement used in this study and some geotechnical properties of the sand used in this work were defined and presented.

정확히 재가중되는 온라인 전체 에러율 최소화 기반의 객체 추적 (Object Tracking Based on Exactly Reweighted Online Total-Error-Rate Minimization)

  • 장세인;박충식
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2019
  • 영상 기반의 보안 시스템의 증가함에 따라 각 용도마다 다른 다양한 객체들에 대한 처리들이 중요해지고 있다. 객체 추적은 객체 인식, 검출과 같은 작업들과 함께 필수적인 작업으로 다뤄진다. 이 객체 추적을 달성하기 위해서 다양한 머신러닝이 적용될 수 있다. 성공적인 분류기로써 전체 에러율 최소화(total-error-rate minimization) 기반의 방법론이 사용될 수 있다. 이 전체 에러율 최소화 기반의 방법론은 오프라인 학습을 기반으로 하고 있다. 객체 추적은 실시간으로 처리하며 갱신해야하는 것이 필수적이므로 온라인 학습(online learning)을 기반으로 하는 것이 적합하다. 온라인 전체 에러율 최소화 방법론이 개발되었지만 점근적으로 재가중되는(approximately reweighted) 작업이 포함되어 에러를 누적시킬 수 있다는 단점이 있다. 본 논문에서는 정확하게 재가중되는(exactly reweighted) 방법론을 제안하면서 온라인 전체 에러율 최소화가 달성되었다. 이 제안된 온라인 학습 방법론을 객체 추적에 적용하여 총 8개의 데이터베이스에서 다른 추적 방법론들 보다 좋은 성능이 달성되었다.

영동 지역 해풍 사례를 대상으로 수행한 지면 피복 자료에 따른 WRF 모델의 민감도 분석 (WRF Sensitivity Experiments on the Choice of Land Cover Data for an Event of Sea Breeze Over the Yeongdong Region)

  • 하원실;이재규
    • 대기
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.373-389
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    • 2011
  • This research focuses on the sensitivity of the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) Model according to three different land cover data(USGS(United States Geological Survey), MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)30s+USGS, and KLC (Korea Land Cover)) for an event of sea breeze, occurred over the Gangwon Yeongdong region on 13 May 2009. Based on the observation, the easterly into Gangneung, due to the sea-breeze circulation, was identified between 1000 LST and 1640 LST. It did not reach beyond the Taebaek Mountain Range and thus the easterly was not observed near Daegwallyeong. On the other hand, the numerical simulations utilizing land cover data of USGS, MODIS30s+USGS, and KLC showed easterlies beyond the Taebaek Mountain Range up to Daegwallyeong. In addition, rather different penetration distances of each easterly, and different timings of beginning and ending of sea breeze were identified among the simulations. The Bias, MAE(Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) of the wind from WRF simulation using MODIS30s+USGS land cover data were the least among the simulations particularly over Gangwon Yeongdong coastal area(Sokcho, Gangneung and Donghae), while those of the wind over the Gangwon Mountain area(Daegwallyeong and Jinbu) from the simulation using KLC land cover data were the least among them. The wind field over Gangwon Yeongdong coastal area from the simulation using USGS land cover data was rather poor among them.

피톤치드(모노테르펜) 농도 예측을 위한 회귀분석 기반 모델식 -춘천 수리봉을 중심으로- (Regression Analysis-based Model Equation Predicting the Concentration of Phytoncide (Monoterpenes) - Focusing on Suri Hill in Chuncheon -)

  • 이석종;김병욱;홍영균;이영섭;고영훈;양승표;현근우;이건호;김재철;김대열
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제47권6호
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    • pp.548-557
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    • 2021
  • Background: Due to the emergence of new diseases such as COVID-19, an increasing number of people are struggling with stress and depression. Interest is growing in forest-based recreation for physical and mental relief. Objectives: A prediction model equation using meteorological factors and data was developed to predict the quantities of medicinal substances generated in forests (monoterpenes) in real-time. Methods: The concentration of phytoncide and meteorological factors in the forests near Chuncheon in South Korea were measured for nearly two years. Meteorological factors affecting the observation data were acquired through a multiple regression analysis. A model equation was developed by applying a linear regression equation with the main factors. Results: The linear regression analysis revealed a high explanatory power for the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity in the coniferous forest (R2=0.7028 and R2=0.5859). With a temperature increase of 1℃, the phytoncide concentration increased by 31.7 ng/Sm3. A humidity increase of 1% led to an increase in the coniferous forest by 21.9 ng/Sm3. In the deciduous forest, the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity had approximately 60% explanatory power (R2=0.6611 and R2=0.5893). A temperature increase of 1℃ led to an increase of approximately 9.6 ng/Sm3, and 1% humidity resulted in a change of approximately 6.9 ng/Sm3. A prediction model equation was suggested based on such meteorological factors and related equations that showed a 30% error with statistical verification. Conclusions: Follow-up research is required to reduce the prediction error. In addition, phytoncide data for each region can be acquired by applying actual regional phytoncide data and the prediction technique proposed in this study.

A Study on Rapid Prototyping using VRML Model

  • Kim, Ho-Chan;Park, Hong-Tae;Lee, Hyoung-Kook;Lee, Seok-Hee
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2002
  • Internet becomes very common tool far communication and data sharing. Virtual readily(VR) on web browser, and virtual prototyping and virtual manufacturing is widely used in many engineering fields. The reduction of overall development process and error minimization during data conversion becomes very crucial where sharing data via Internet and VR. This paper deals with the advantage and disadvantage of VRML format used in RP(Rapid Prototyping), and a software for RP data preparation is developed. If VRML format as an international standard for VR, is replaced with STL format, the weak points of STL formal can be overcome and the technique related to virtual prototyping and virtual manufacturing can be addressed more systematically by sharing the data. The system developed in this work shows a good window to get access to a mare realistic observation of an object for an RP system from a long remote sites in a more systematic way.

Precise attitude determination strategy for spacecraft based on information fusion of attitude sensors: Gyros/GPS/Star-sensor

  • Mao, Xinyuan;Du, Xiaojing;Fang, Hui
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2013
  • The rigorous requirements of modern spacecraft missions necessitate a precise attitude determination strategy. This paper mainly researches that, based on three space-borne attitude sensors: 3-axis rate gyros, 3-antenna GPS receiver and star-sensor. To obtain global attitude estimation after an information fusion process, a feedback-involved Federated Kalman Filter (FKF), consisting of two subsystem Kalman filters (Gyros/GPS and Gyros/Star-sensor), is established. In these filters, the state equation is implemented according to the spacecraft's kinematic attitude model, while the residual error models of GPS and star-sensor observed attitude are utilized, to establish two observation equations, respectively. Taking the sensors' different update rates into account, these two subsystem filters are conducted under a variable step size state prediction method. To improve the fault tolerant capacity of the attitude determination system, this paper designs malfunction warning factors, based on the principle of ${\chi}^2$ residual verification. Mathematical simulation indicates that the information fusion strategy overwhelms the disadvantages of each sensor, acquiring global attitude estimation with precision at a 2-arcsecs level. Although a subsystem encounters malfunction, FKF still reaches precise and stable accuracy. In this process, malfunction warning factors advice malfunctions correctly and effectively.

다이아몬드 터닝머신을 이용한 금속 비구면 초정밀 절삭특성 (A study of metal aspheric reflector manufacturing in diamond turning machine)

  • 김건희;도철진;홍권희;유병주;원종호;김상석
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집C
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    • pp.83-87
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    • 2001
  • A 110 mm diameter aspheric metal secondary mirror for a test model of an earth observation satellite camera was fabricated by ultra-precision single point diamond turning (SPDT). Aluminum alloy for mirror substrates is known to be easily machinable, but not polishable due to its ductility. A harder material, Ni, is usually electrolessly coated on an Al substrate to increase the surface hardness for optical polishing. Aspheric metal secondary mirror without a conventional polishing process, the surface roughness of Ra=10nm, and the form error of $Ra={\lambda}/12({\lambda}=632nm)$ has been required. The purpose of this research is to find the optimum machining conditions for reflector cutting of electroless-Ni coated Al alloy and apply the SPDT technique to the manufacturing of ultra precision optical components of metal aspheric reflector.

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Comparison of Chlorophyll Algorithms in the Bohai Sea of China

  • Xiu, Peng;Liu, Yuguang;Rong, Zengrui;Zong, Haibo;Li, Gang;Xing, Xinogang;Cheng, Yongcun
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • 제42권4호
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2007
  • Empirical band-ratio algorithms and artificial neural network techniques to retrieve sea surface chlorophyll concentrations were evaluated in the Bohai Sea of China by using an extensive field observation data set. Bohai Sea represents an example of optically complex case II waters with high concentrations of colored dissolved organic mattei (CDOM). The data set includes coincident measurements of radiometric quantities and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl), which were taken on 8 cruises between 2003 and 2005, The data covers a range of variability in Chl in surface waters from 0.3 to 6.5 mg $m^{-3}$. The comparison results showed that these empirical algorithms developed for case I and case II waters can not be applied directly to the Bohai Sea of china, because of significant biases. For example, the mean normalized bias (MNB) for OC4V4 product was 1.85 and the root mean square (RMS) error is 2.26.